Broiler Meat Trade Continues to Climb

Transcription

1 Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series DL&P -8 April 8 Broiler Meat Trade Continues to Climb TMT Top 5 Importers TMT Net Importers Again China EU Russia Japan EU China Saudi Arabia China and the European Union are expected to be net broiler meat importers again in 8 on the basis of continued strong demand, higher domestic prices, and strengthening currencies. China is expected to be supplied mostly by the, whereas the EU is expected to be supplied by and Thailand. It is interesting to note that in the case of the EU, there s a distinct -year upward trend as exports have fallen and imports have been rising. In the case of China, the trend of more imports and less exports is only prevalent in the past few years as consumers have shifted to poultry from more expensive pork. Note: Data in this document reflects the PSD ( and WASDE release of April 9, 8.. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA

2 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade April 8 Contents Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry 8 Revised Forecast Overviews Beef Pork Poultry Summary Tables Beef Summary Table Pork Summary Table Broiler Meat Summary Table Turkey Meat Summary Table Cattle Summary Table Swine Summary Table Notes to Readers Office of Global Analysis April 8

3 Production (p) 8 (f) Percent Change 7 to 8 Beef and Veal / 55,33 56,888 58,76 59,4 6,43 6,96.8% Pork / 93,34 95,677 99,5 98,37 95,658 97,3.5% Broiler and Turkey / 63,5 64,58 67,84 68,756 7,855 75, % Consumption,75 7,47 5, 6,547 8,936 34,4.% Beef and Veal / 55,35 56,66 57,75 58,7 59,985 6,539.9% Pork / 93,44 95,5 98,756 98,38 95,54 96,94.5% Broiler & Turkey / 6,477 63,83 67,67 68,53 7,55 75, % Imports,43 5,9 3,574 5,35 8,5 3,87.% Beef and Veal / 6,36 6, 6,794 6,84 7,37 7,6 -.% Pork / 4,86 4,5 4,753 4,9 5,8 5,83.% Broiler and Turkey / 5,93 5,854 6,63 6,74 7,43 7,648 3.% Exports Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry 6,353 6,586 8,7 8,55 9,73,57.6% Beef and Veal / 6,479 6,646 7,9 7,487 7,65 7,656.7% Pork / 4,75 4,74 5,5 5, 5,5 5,48 6.4% Broiler and Turkey / 6,59 6,566 7,43 7,55 7,79 8,33 6.7% U.S. Exports 7,73 7,96 9,699 9,76,547,45 4.4% Beef and Veal /, % Pork / ,9,359,44,694 9.% Broiler and Turkey /,45,37,68,69,869, % 4,37 3,569 4,43 4,487 4,94 5, % Change in Market Share U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders Points Beef and Veal / 8% 3% 4% 7% 9% 9% % Pork / 9% % 4% 6% 8% 3% 3% Broiler and Turkey / 38% 36% 35% 37% 37% 36% -% Combined 5% % % 3% 4% 5% % Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. (p) preliminary; (f) forecast /, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) /, Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent) Note to Readers: s include only those countries that make up USDA s official PSD database are reported. This means totals do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA s database, which represent the most important players in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported changes periodically. Office of Global Analysis April 8

4 BEEF AND VEAL: 8 REVISED FORECAST OVERVIEW New countries have been added to the beef and veal PSD to reduce the gap between total imports and total exports by selected countries. These additional countries have data for 996 to 8 and are included in this circular as well as in the PSD Online. As a result, any comparison between the 8 forecast published in November and the revised 8 forecast should take this modification into account. Production Beef and veal production for selected countries is forecast at 6 million tons. Production by and China are revised significantly downward and gains are forecast for the European Union and the. is increased percent (6, tons) to. million tons due to robust cow slaughter and elevated cattle weights. China is dropped 4 percent (335, tons) to 7.7 million tons largely due to weatherrelated losses. European Union is boosted nearly 3 percent (5, tons) to 8. million tons as decreased imports from, strong domestic demand, and elevated prices will stimulate production. is lowered over one percent (4, tons) to just over 9.7 million tons as expansion is constrained by challenges to export growth stemming from new restrictions imposed by the EU-7. Consumption is raised 4 percent (35, tons) to just more than 7.5 million tons as European Union restrictions on ian beef exports will positively impact domestic consumption by the exporting powerhouse. China is lowered nearly 4 percent (87, tons) to almost 7.7 million tons. Despite rising incomes and increasing consumption of meals away from home where most Chinese consume beef, higher prices resulting from the disease-related disruption in the pork sector will dampen demand. Exports Exports are revised 4 percent downward to nearly 7.7 million tons. European Union restrictions on ian exports, continuing BSE-related restrictions on North American beef and continuing drought in Australia negatively impacted the revised forecast. Office of Global Analysis April 8

5 is lowered percent (89, tons) to 687, tons. Despite the weak dollar and strong sales to, export growth is dampened as sales to Japan and are not expanding at the same rate as experienced in 7. is dropped 7 percent (45, tons) from the November forecast. The plunge in the forecast is a result of European Union restrictions on ian exports due to sanitary concerns. It should be noted that while the 8 forecast was significantly lowered, ian exports are expected to be. million tons which is largely unchanged from 7. Although Russia is s largest market, the European Union accounts for a significant portion of ian sales. ian exports to the European Union will decline in 8 although prepared/preserved meat is not subject to the restrictions and a number of farms have now been approved to ship. ian exporters will make up for this loss through increased sales to other markets in Asia (Hong Kong and Philippines), the (prepared/preserved beef only), and Africa and the Middle East (Iran and Egypt). As with prior years when faced with trade restrictions due to foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks, will inevitably pursue access to and growth in non-traditional markets to sustain exports. is decreased 8 percent (, tons) to 45, tons due to reduced slaughter, diminishing price competitiveness due to a higher valued Canadian dollar, continuing BSE-related restrictions, and increased cattle exports to the. European Union is slashed 75 percent (75, tons) to, tons as trade restrictions on imports of ian beef will reduce export sales in order to fulfill domestic demand. Imports Beef and veal imports are forecast at 7. million tons. Imports by major markets are generally down (U.S., Japan, European Union, Korea) or increased slightly (Russia and ). is dropped percent (, tons) to just over.3 million tons as increased domestic slaughter coupled with a weaker dollar will decrease imports. Japan is reduced percent (75, tons) to 65, tons as decreased Australian exportable supplies of grain-fed beef and continuing restrictions on U.S. beef as well as the relatively high price of U.S. beef will constrain import demand. European Union is cut a sharp 7 percent (, tons) to 55, tons due to restrictions on ian exports. While other South American suppliers such as Uruguay are anticipated to increase their market presence, they will not be able to fulfill the gap left by diminished sales by the EU s principal supplier. Office of Global Analysis April 8

6 PORK: 8 REVISED FORECAST OVERVIEW New countries have been added to the pork PSD to reduce the gap between total imports and total exports by selected countries. These additional countries have data for 996 to 8 and are included in this circular as well as in the PSD Online. As a result, any comparison between the 8 forecast published in November and the revised 8 forecast should take this modification into account. Production The 8 pork production revised forecast for selected countries is 97 million tons. China dominates world production and forecasted production is sharply revised downward. Gains in forecasted production for the, the European Union, and Russia do not offset the Chinese reduction. is raised nearly 6 percent (576, tons) to almost.7 million tons. Industry has adopted newly developed circo-virus vaccines which have lowered hog losses resulting in increased pork production. China is slashed nearly 7 percent (3.3 million tons) to 44.7 million tons. China continues to be challenged by disease outbreaks in the swine sector and adverse weather conditions this past winter. As a result, recovery has been slower than anticipated. Disease outbreaks are having a particularly negative impact on backyard production and will fuel increased commercial production. European Union is increased almost 3 percent (59, tons) to.5 million tons largely on production increases by Denmark, Germany, and the Benelux countries. Consumption is raised nearly 3 percent (55, tons) to just under 9.4 million tons as higher pork production keeps retail prices in check spurring consumer purchases. China is lowered nearly 7 percent (3. million tons) to almost 44.6 million tons. Reduced consumption is being driven by higher prices and reduced supplies due to negative weather and disease outbreaks. European Union is raised over percent (55, tons) to just over.3 million tons as lower prices and plentiful supplies will raise consumption. Office of Global Analysis April 8

7 Exports Pork exports are boosted over 6 percent to nearly 5.5 million tons. Pork export growth by the key traders and the European Union buoy the forecast increase while and China are lowered. is raised over 7 percent (5, tons) to a new record of.7 million tons as exports soar fueled by increased supplies and a weaker dollar. Shipments to Japan and are expected to remain robust and increased sales to China represent an opportunity in an expanding market. European Union is stepped up 5 percent (7, tons) to.3 million tons. The escalation is strengthened by opportunities for Danish and German pork in China as well as to increased sales to Russia which lifted its ban on Polish products in December. China is forecasted downward by 7 percent (, tons) to 33, tons as domestic production shortfalls translate to reduced export sales. Imports Pork imports are raised nearly 853, tons to nearly 5. million tons. Though there is some growth in imports by major markets such as Japan and Russia, almost all of the increase in imports is due to the inclusion of new countries or readmission or previously included countries in the PSD database. is dropped nearly percent (45, tons) to 4, tons. While due in part to a weaker dollar, restructuring of the Canadian swine sector is also impacting demand. While U.S. pork imports from have been falling, U.S. imports of live swine, largely from, is raised nearly percent to a record.9 million head. Japan is raised over 3 percent (4, tons) to just nearly.3 million tons. U.S. and Canadian chilled pork will increasingly find opportunities in the market, offsetting an anticipated decrease in frozen pork imports which are generally used for processing. Shored by the weaker dollar, the is also expected to continue to chisel at Denmark s market share. Russia is increased 4 percent (35, tons) to 9, tons. Despite higher prices which are dampening consumption, domestic production is unable to keep pace with rising demand. Office of Global Analysis April 8

8 BROILER MEAT: 8 REVISED FORECAST OVERVIEW New countries have been added to the broiler meat PSD to reduce the gap between total imports and total exports by selected countries. These additional countries have data for 997 to 8 and are included in this circular as well as in the PSD Online. As a result, any comparison between the 8 forecast published in November and the revised 8 forecast should take this modification into account. Production The forecast for broiler production is raised to 7 million tons. Whereas broiler production forecasts for major producers (U.S.,, and the European Union) are slightly higher, China s broiler production is expected to grow by percent over the November forecast. is up, tons to 6.6 million tons based on strong demand. China is raised. million tons to.5 million due to strong demand for the cheaper protein as pork prices continue to be high. is boosted 345, tons to.9 million tons. Producers are expected to expand poultry output as local feed supplies are raised to record levels. Also, foreign and domestic demand continues to be strong. European Union is up, tons to 8. million tons due to growing demand for the cheaper protein as meat prices rise and also additional capacity in Germany and Romania while UK recovers from AI losses. Consumption The forecast for broiler consumption was raised to 7 million tons. Growth in major broiler consumer nations, such as China, European Union, and, are expected to be strong in 8. China is up. million tons to.7 million tons due to continued high pork prices spurring demand for broiler meat. European Union is raised nearly 3, tons to 8. million tons. Despite higher prices, domestic demand continues to be strong as broiler meat is still million tons Major Broiler Meat Consumers f USA China EU-7 Office of Global Analysis April 8

9 the lower cost protein option. is up 3, tons to 7.7 million tons as consumer s real incomes continue to rise with a healthy growing economy expected in 8. Exports Broiler exports are revised up nearly 5, tons to 7.7 million tons. Growth in the and is strong while the European Union is expected to decline in 8. is up nearly, tons to.7 million due to the favorable exchange rates. Chinese and Russian pace of imports from the US is expected to continue strong. U.S. chicken leg quarter prices averaged $94 per ton in March, up over $8 from February. Foreign demand for leg quarters has kept prices strong. $/ton /5 /6 U.S. Southern States Chicken LQ Prices /6 /7 /8 /8 /8 /9 3/ is boosted 5, tons to a record 3. million. Year-to-year export growth is modest compared to past years (except for the decline in 6). s major destinations in 7 were the EU, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Hong Kong and United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE is the fifth newest market, having displaced Russia in 7, and imported 95, tons, up 48, tons over the previous year. So far in 8, export growth is strongest to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. European Union is down 8, tons to 6, as the Europeans are becoming less competitive due to the rising euro. Exports were down last year to major markets such as Russia and Ukraine. The European Union is expected to be a net importer in 8, with as the major supplier. Imports Broiler imports are forecast at 7. million tons. Imports to major markets Russia, European Union, China, Saudi Arabia, are increased for 8 as demand continues strong. Russia is up 6, tons to. million tons due to continued shortage of supplies in red meats and favorable broiler prices. Consumer demand continues to expand because of growing incomes. Imports are still somewhat constrained by the government policies to encourage domestic production. Office of Global Analysis April 8

10 European Union is boosted by, tons to 65, tons, the highest since 999 when the EU-7 was formed, based on pace of shipments from and higher domestic prices. Despite the lower TRQ for salted poultry in 8, European Union imports are expected to surpass the quota because it continues to be profitable. China is raised 4, tons to 6, tons because of strong consumer demand, an appreciating Renminbi, and higher domestic prices. Nearly 7 percent of this market is supplied by the, the rest comes from. Saudi Arabia is boosted 4, tons to 49, tons based on strong shipments from. Over 8 percent of its imports are supplied by, the rest comes from the European Union. Also, recent reports indicate that the government will be cutting import tariffs for frozen poultry from to 5 percent to help control food price inflation. Office of Global Analysis April 8

11 Beef and Veal Selected Countries, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) Nov 8 Apr Production 7,975 8,59 9, 9,47 9,85 9,7 EU-7 8,45 8,9 8,5 8,75 7,9 8,5 6,759 7,5 7,5 7,48 8,65 7,73 Argentina 3,3 3, 3, 3, 3,5 3,7 India,3,5,375,5,655,655,99,5,75,,5,5 Australia,8,,83,97,,75,59,55,43,37,37,34,496,53,39,3,3,3 Pakistan 975,,57,89 nr, 9,47 9,336 9,58 9,336 4,6 9,375 45,67 46,858 47,439 48,37 4,64 48,735,6,38,98,96,9,7 56,888 58,76 59,4 6,43 54,55 6,96 Dom. Consumption EU-7 8,58 8,55 8,649 8,674 8,475 8,575 6,7 7,4 6,967 7,44 7,969 7,68 6,47 6,795 6,964 7,3 7,5 7,54 Argentina,59,45,553,673,595,64,376,48,59,568,58,63,3,49,36,39,46,46 India,638,633,694,765,855,855 Japan,69,88,59,8,,57 Pakistan 975,4,9,9 nr,3,3,79,86,99,34,35,38,46,835,968 4,,3 43,949 45,87 45,877 47,55 39,66 47,7,667,664,834,83,675,88 56,66 57,75 58,7 59,985 5,9 6,539 Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. Notes: / Includes buffalo for India. / New countries have been added to the PSDs for 'meat, beef and veal' to improve trade estimates by major exporters. These additional countries have data for 996 to 8 and are included in this circular as well as in the PSDOnline. As a result, any comparison between the 8 forecast published in November and the revised 8 forecast should take this modification into account. 3/ nr or '' = no record Data for 7 is preliminary. Data for 8 is forecast. Office of Global Analysis April 8

12 Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) Nov 8 Apr Imports ,3,,3 Japan EU Korea, Republic of Egypt Venezuela nr Philippines Malaysia ,346,486,599,7 39,773 4,55 5,6 5,44 5,853 4,4 5,897,669,63,399,384,55,39 6, 6,794 6,84 7,37 5,675 7,6 Exports,6,845,84,89,65, Australia,369,388,43,4,38,36 India Argentina New Zealand Uruguay Paraguay nr 5 EU Nicaragua nr ,437 6,975 6,968 6,956 7, 6, ,646 7,9 7,487 7,65 7,998 7,656 Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. Notes: / Includes buffalo for India. / New countries have been added to the PSDs for 'meat, beef and veal' to improve trade estimates by major exporters. These additional countries have data for 996 to 8 and are included in this circular as well as in the PSDOnline. As a result, any comparison between the 8 forecast published in November and the revised 8 forecast should take this modification into account. 3/ nr or '' = no record Data for 7 is preliminary. Data for 8 is forecast. Office of Global Analysis April 8

13 Pork Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) Nov 8 Apr Production 47,6 5,6 48,7 44, 48, 44,7 EU-7,753,676,79,6,9,5,6,7,83,99 3,95 3,,75,735,85,9,,3 Vietnam,48,6,73,83 nr,85,936,9,898,85,79,79 Philippines,45,75,5,45,5 Japan,7,45,47,5,55,4,5,95,8,5,5,8 Korea, Republic of,,36,,43,95,85 5,6 5,33 5,55 5,66,489 5,7 86,365 89,73 88,8 85,696 8,884 86,446 9,3 9,39 9,559 9,96,8,684 95,677 99,5 98,37 95,658 9,99 97,3 Dom. Consumption 46,648 49,73 48,46 44,48 47,7 44,58 EU-7,58,63,63,57,8,35,338,486,639,83,874,939 Japan,59,59,45,47,49,54,979,949,9,6,3,34 Vietnam,386,583,73,855 nr,86 Korea, Republic of,336,3,4,56,55,55,556,556,488,54,58,54 Philippines,69,98,39,7,76, ,48 6,94 6,49 6,58,796 6,666 86,685 9,87 89,498 86,55 83,4 87,54 8,87 8,669 8,64 8,964 9,9 9,384 95,5 98,756 98,38 95,54 9,69 96,94 Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. Notes: / New countries have been added to the PSDs for 'meat, swine' (pork) to improve trade estimates by major exporters. These additional countries have data for 996 to 8 and are included in this circular as well as in the PSDOnline. As a result, any comparison between the 8 forecast published in November and the revised 8 forecast should take this modification into account. / nr or '' = no record Data for 7 is preliminary. Data for 8 is forecast. Office of Global Analysis April 8

14 Pork Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) Nov 8 Apr Imports Japan,69,34,54,,, Korea, Republic of Hong Kong Australia Singapore Ukraine , 4,89 4,473 4,643 3,865 4, ,5 4,753 4,9 5,8 4,33 5,83 Exports EU-7,3,43,84,8,3,3 97,84,8,33,5, Chile Australia Vietnam 9 9 nr 9 Korea, Republic of Guatemala nr ,75 3,796 3,86 3,78 3,74 3, ,9,359,44,44,694 4,74 5,5 5, 5,5 5,56 5,48 Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. Notes: / New countries have been added to the PSDs for 'meat, swine' (pork) to improve trade estimates by major exporters. These additional countries have data for 996 to 8 and are included in this circular as well as in the PSDOnline. As a result, any comparison between the 8 forecast published in November and the revised 8 forecast should take this modification into account. / nr or '' = no record Data for 7 is preliminary. Data for 8 is forecast. Office of Global Analysis April 8

15 Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent) Nov 8 Apr Production 9,998,,35,5,4,5 8,48 9,35 9,355,35,55,895 EU-7 7,85 8,69 7,74 8, 8,9 8,,389,498,59,73,7,85 India,65,9,,3,4,6 65 9,8,35,5,485 Argentina 9,3,,8,4,38 Japan,4,66,7,4,5,35 Iran,7,53,53,53 nr,53 Thailand 9 95,,5,5,5 9,74 9,76 9,97,5 7,43,767 44,36 47,3 47,867 5,54 47,868 54,9 5,86 5,87 5,93 6, 6,536 6,558 59,6 6,9 63,797 67,753 64,44 7,748 Dom. Consumption 9,93,88,37,64,57,7 EU-7 7,66 8,87 7,66 8,8 7,94 8,3 5,99 6,6 6,853 7,384 7,45 7,68,73,87 3,6 3, 3,46 3,3,675,39,373,58,68,74 India,648,899,,3,4,6 Japan,73,88,939,936,93,97 Argentina ,3,6,49,36 South Africa, Republic of 956,,4,8,9,38 Iran,8,39,5,94 nr,8,575,,35 3,9 8,86 3,656 45,844 48,785 49,98 53,968 48,98 56,455 3,8 3,43 3,67 3,64 4,5 3,89 58,94 6,5 63,65 67,59 6,33 7,347 Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. Notes: / New countries have been added to the PSDs for 'poultry, meat, broiler' to improve trade estimates by major exporters. These additional countries have data for 997 to 8 and are included in this circular as well as in the PSD Online. As a result, any comparison between the 8 forecast published in November and the revised 8 forecast should take this modification into account. / nr or '' = no record 3/ Argentina's broiler production is revised downwar since chicken paws are not included in the trade data. 4/ Data for 7 is preliminary. Data for 8 is forecast. Office of Global Analysis April 8

16 Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent) Nov 8 Apr Imports,6,5,89,,8,4 Japan EU Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Hong Kong South Africa, Republic of Iraq ,748,766,75,79 765,43 5,445 6,9 6,6 6,956 5,355 7, ,457 6,44 6,8 6,984 5,38 7,64 Exports,46,739,5,9 3, 3,5 EU Thailand Argentina Kuwait Chile United Arab Emirates Australia ,874 4,44 4,33 4,68 4,956 5,,7,36,36,68,54,7 6,44 6,8 6,494 7,36 7,48 7,7 Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. Notes: / New countries have been added to the PSDs for 'poultry, meat, broiler' to improve trade estimates by major exporters. These additional countries have data for 997 to 8 and are included in this circular as well as in the PSD Online. As a result, any comparison between the 8 forecast published in November and the revised 8 forecast should take this modification into account. / nr or '' = no record 3/ Iraqi imports include all US broiler meat shipped to Turkey. 4/ Argentina exports are revised downward to reflect the exclusion of chicken paws. Chicken paws are not included in the trade data. 5/ Data for 7 is preliminary. Data for 8 is forecast. Office of Global Analysis April 8

17 Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent) Nov 8 Apr Production EU-7,3,99,858,84,83, ,59,474,46,435,46,46,44,464,543,667,659,76 4,97 4,938 4,959 5, 5,9 5, Dom. Consumption EU-7,966,888,84,835,83, ,67,65,557,558,53,53,7,47,95,4,376,484 4,879 4,85 4,85 4,959 4,899 5,7 Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. Notes: / From 3, Hong Kong, Korea, and Malaysia are no longer included in the turkey PSD. / From 8, South Africa and are no longer included in the turkey PSD. Data for 7 is preliminary. Data for 8 is forecast. Office of Global Analysis April 8

18 Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent) Nov 8 Apr Imports EU Exports EU Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. Notes: / From 3, Hong Kong, Korea, and Malaysia are no longer included in the turkey PSD. / From 8, South Africa and Taiwan are no longer included in the turkey PSD. Data for 7 is preliminary. Data for 8 is forecast. Office of Global Analysis April 8

19 Cattle Selected Countries Summary (in, head) Nov 8 Apr Cattle Beg. Stks India 83,3 8,5 8,3 8, 8,7 8,7 65,49 69,567 73,86 8,3 87,65 87,87 34,67 37,88 4,435 39,44 4,48 39,7 EU-7 9,375 89,39 89,67 88,463 87,8 87,65 Argentina 5,768 5,67 5,66 5,64 5,6 5,6 Australia 6,64 7,7 7,78 8,846 8,4 9, 8,437 7,57 6,949 6,644 6,73 6,489,85, 9,85 9, 8,33 8,37 South Africa, Republic of 3,54 3,5 3,79 3,97 4,87 4,87 4,555 4,95 4,655 4,55 3,75 3,945 6,36 58,4 57, 55,849 49,557 49,756 89,9 89,76 896, ,78 898, ,69 94,888 95,438 96,7 97,3 96,9 96, ,7 987, 993,37 996, , ,838 Production (Calf Crop) 54,6 57, 57,9 59,5 6,5 6,5 46,34 48,37 5,797 54,45 57,85 57,85 India 55,8 56,5 57, 57, 57,45 57,45 EU-7 3,489 3,7 3,65 3,5 3,35 3,4 Argentina 5, 5,4 5,5 5,4 5,4 5, Australia 9,97 9,643,55, 9,9,3 7,3 7,5 7,95 8, 8,5 8,5 8,4 7,95 7,55 7,3 7, 7,8 5,47 5,5 5,339 5,476 5,5 5,5 New Zealand 4,45 4,46 4,363 4,33 4,4 4,384 9,3 8,468 8,654 7,753 7, 6,59 58,35 6,976 67,83 69,99 74,77 73,456 37,55 37,575 37,59 37,36 37, 37,5 95,74 3,55 34,7 37,8 3,477 3,66 Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. Notes: / Includes buffalo for India. / From 3, Columbia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Venezuela are no longer included in the cattle PSD. From 8, the Philippines is no longer included in the cattle PSD. Data for 7 is preliminary. Data for 8 is forecast. Office of Global Analysis April 8

20 Cattle Selected Countries Summary (in, head) Nov 8 Apr Imports South Africa, Republic of Egypt Japan Turkey 6 EU ,37,86,89,495,6,65,837,3,764,98 3,34 3,95 Exports 559,3,4,35,5,375,59,75,7,5,5 Australia EU Uruguay New Zealand South Africa, Republic of Argentina ,856,995 3,86 4,34 4,333 4, ,87 3,7 3,9 4,99 4,388 4,487 Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. Notes: / Includes buffalo for India. / From 3, Columbia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Venezuela are no longer included in the cattle PSD. From 8, the Philippines is no longer included in the cattle PSD. Data for 7 is preliminary. Data for 8 is forecast. Office of Global Analysis April 8

21 Swine Selected Countries Summary (in, head) Nov 8 Apr Beginning Stocks 466,7 48,89 53, ,47 469, ,8 EU-7 58,97 56,973 59,5 6,56 59,9 6, 3,8 3,33 3,938 33,47 33,877 33,87 7, 6,5 6,55 7,8 8,58 8,87 4,75 4,8 5, 4,97 4,4 4,,668,33,5,5,4,4 Japan 9,74 9,6 9,6 9,759 9,75 9,77 Korea, Republic of 8,367 8,44 8,98 8,58 8,754 8,745 Ukraine 7,3 6,466 7,5 8,55 8,65 8,65 Australia,658,53,49,47,4,4 46,348 47,46 5,3 5,5,398, ,79 786,856 84,459 8,74 738,86 756,98 6,444 6,975 6,449 6,49 64,4 66, ,53 847,83 875,98 874,3 83,6 83,6 Production (Pig Crop) 636,74 685,399 64,85 589, , 64,58 EU-7 56,8 57,36 59,58 6, 58,85 6, 35, 35,5 37, 39,5 4,5 4,7 3,5 3,95 33,34 35,53 36,55 36,55 33,4 33, 3,74 3,9 3, 3,4 Japan 7,6 7, 6,95 7, 6,8 6,9 5,35 5,5 5,7 5,8 5,9 5,9 Korea, Republic of 4,796 3,87 3,943 4,43 4,445 4,3 Ukraine 6,54 6,865 7,543 7,7 8, 8, Chile 4,5 4,38 4,5 4,73 5,3 5,3 73,79 79,449 8,4 84,866 5, 5,,,7,8,587,4,99,,43,8,8,38,843,78 3,965 5,68,857 9,65,584,4,85,84,55,48,537,4,89,9,75,5,47 Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. Notes: / From 8, the Philippines and Vietnam are no longer included in the swine PSD. Data for 7 is preliminary. Data for 8 is forecast. Office of Global Analysis April 8

22 Swine Selected Countries Summary (in, head) Nov 8 Apr Imports Ukraine Korea, Republic of EU ,56 8,9 8,763,4 9,75, 8,833 8,65 9,39,57,3,54 Exports 8,57 8,5 8,777,3 9,75,8,973,769,73,69,7,55 EU ,, 3 5 Australia,833,64,467,68,55 3, ,7,778,63,755,656 3,56 Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. Notes: / From 8, the Philippines and Vietnam are no longer included in the swine PSD. Data for 7 is preliminary. Data for 8 is forecast. Office of Global Analysis April 8

23 Notes to Readers The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat trade. Summary tables for meat production, imports, exports, and consumption provide an overview of the situation. Data Modifications Beef, Pork and Broiler Meat: New countries have been added to the beef and veal, pork, and broiler meat PSDs to reduce the gap between total imports and total exports by selected countries. These additional countries have data for 996 or 997 to 8 and are included in this circular as well as in the PSD Online. As a result, any comparison between the 8 forecast published in November and the revised 8 forecast should take this modification into account. Cattle: Data for the EU-5 in 993 is now included in the PSDOnline as it was previously erroneously omitted from the database in the past few releases. Turkey Meat: Only U.S. data has been updated in this release. Turkey meat PSDs for other countries will be updated in the October 8 release. Conversion Rates Beef/Veal Pork Conversion Rate.4.3 HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: Frozen: Processed: & 65 Fresh/Chilled: 3, 3, 39 Frozen: 3, 3, 39 Processed:,, 9, 64, 64, 649 Beef/Veal Exceptions: Argentina,, Uruguay: Exports:,.4; and Imports:.4 for ALL beef/veal codes EU: Exports and Imports:,.4; and , Japan: Exports:.4 for ALL beef/veal codes Imports:,.4; and Broiler Turkey and Other Poultry Conversion Rate HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 7, 73 Frozen: 7, 74 Processed and Salted: 63, 99 Fresh/Chilled: 74, 76, 73, 734, 735 Frozen: 75, 77, 733, 736 Processed: 63 Office of Global Analysis April 8

24 Broiler/Turkey Exceptions: US,, EU, Thailand, Argentina,, and Iran: Chicken Paw Exports excluded using - Hong Kong Imports/Exports: 74 China Imports: 74 US Exports: 7445 China: Imports include Hong Kong broiler meat exports. Hong Kong: Excludes re-exports of broiler meat. : Imports exclude spent hens: 73, 7, 74, 74, 74, 743, 7449, 749, 63, and 639. EU-7: Imports include salted poultry from South America and Thailand: : Imports include meat sausage: 63 and 6 Assumptions BSE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the and, forecasts for 8 assume a continuation of policies currently in place among U.S. and Canadian trading partners as of April 9, 8. COOL: The current forecast does not make any assumptions about impact of COOL (Country of Origin Labeling) on U.S. production and trade of livestock and meat. AI: Poultry trade forecasts reflect policies currently in place as a result of outbreaks of avian influenza (AI) as of April 9, 8. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. FMD: Forecasts reflect the status of the foot and mouth disease (FMD) situation in as of April 9, 8 and any resulting trade restrictions. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. Technical Notes CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported. Per Capita Consumption: The Per Capita Consumption tables are published in the annual circular only. These are developed using Domestic Consumption data in the PSD and Census population data. Census population data is available in Excel format from USDA- Economic Research Service at s USDA s official PSD database is composed of countries representing over 9 percent of the world s livestock and poultry meat situation. Since it represents all major meat importers and exporters, it is an efficient forecasting basis for identifying world trends. Office of Global Analysis April 8

25 PSD Online The entire USDA PSD database is available electronically on PSD Online. Users can use this system to generate the full set of PSD data for those countries reporting. PSD Online can be reached through FAS Reports from Overseas Offices The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submitted since March 8 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can be obtained on FAS Online at: Scheduled and voluntary reports were received from the following countries. An x indicates that the USDA-FAS office in that country has provided a report and/or data for that commodity. Country Name Livestock Report Cattle Beef Swine Pork Poultry Report Broiler Turkey Argentina Australia AR88 x x AS8 x x BR865 x x x x BR866 x x CA89 x x x x China EU-7 Japan Korea New Zealand Russia CH84 x x x x CH83 x E485 x x x x E484 x JA8 x x x x KS8 x x x x MX84 x x x x MX83 x NZ86 x x RS84 x x x x RS85 x Additional Resources Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at: for additional data and analysis. Additional information on international trade of agricultural products can be found at: Situation and outlook information on the U.S. livestock and poultry industry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: Office of Global Analysis April 8

26 Future Releases and Contact Information Please visit to view archived and future releases of Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade. The next release of this circular will be in October 8. Questions regarding this forecast as well as world trade of livestock and poultry products may be directed to the following staff: Michelle DeGraaf Poultry (Broiler, Turkey and Other Poultry products) Claire Mezoughem Cattle, Beef, Swine, Pork, Other animals and meat (horse, sheep, etc), Animal by products (rendered products, hides and skins) Office of Global Analysis April 8