Systems research and modelling in Agri-Food research

Transcription

1 Systems research and modelling in Agri-Food research Dr. Martin Kropff, CIMMYT Director General Prof. Wageningen University Berlin, 17 March 2016 Thank you to Kai Sonder, Matthew Reynolds, Bruno Gerard, Isaiah Nyagumbo, Kindie Tesfaye, Balwinder Singh, Peter Carberry, V Valdez, A. Jarvis, Rao,

2 This presentation AgriFood central to all challenges Developments in the CGIAR Systems research and modelling in AgriFood Model development vs applications Future needs and opportunities: an invitation!

3 The 9 Billion Person Question Food security Diets Climate change AgriFood systems More Less Resources Urbanization Diseases Better

4 Food System Shocks Ug99 (windborn) Lloyds Emerging Risk Report 2015

5 Global production losses Wheat Maize 7% 10% Impacts Price increase s x4 Human cost Humanitarian crisis Food riots Soybean 11% Stock market losses Rice 7% x5 10% in EU 5% in US

6 Lloyds workfloor: Global insurance: managing risk

7 Key Office Field Station Project CIMMYT Around the World Afghanistan Iran Turkey Kazakhstan Guatemala Colombia Mexico, HQ Pakistan Ethiopia Kenya China Nepal Bangladesh India Zimbabwe

8 Percentage of releases (%) Impact: Spring bread wheat releases by region and origin : Annual return of 2-5 billion $ Unknown Varieties Non-CGIAR parents CGIAR Direct CGIAR lines CGIAR parent Ancestry CGIAR Parent CGIAR ancestry CGIAR Line 20 Non-CGIAR 10 - China EU and other high income countries Former Soviet Union Countries Latin America South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa West Asia and North Africa World Unknown varieties Source: Lantican et al., 2015

9 Working Within Agri-food Systems Site integration AFS: From germplasm-breeding-sustainable intensification to value chains

10 1980 s data in search of a system Modeling

11 Prof. C.T. de Wit ( ));

12 My Dream 25 Years Ago Today: Progress Research tool? Applications? + scaling up DSS Capacity/Training? -

13 SYSTEMS APPROACHES AND CROP MODELLING IN AGRIFOOD RESEARCH Research tool analysing data hypothesis generation study emerging behaviour SI and Breeding Value chains Applications Decision support Yield Gap Analysis Climate change regional scenario studies Assisting breeding GxExM Capacity building???

14 Examples systems research: Was there a yield decline? Model as reference

15 Examples systems research: Understanding rice-legume relay cropping S. hamata and C - C. cajan C ++ in rice Akanvou, Kropff, Bastiaans

16 Rice grain yield loss Examples systems research: Rice-legume relay cropping Ecophysiological model INTERCOM: 1.0 C. cajan in Wab56-50 Introduction more competitive variety: 0.8 later introduction faster growth after removal rice S. hamata in Wab56-50 S. hamata in V4 C. cajan in V4 4 DARS 8 DARS 12 DARS 16 DARS 20 DARS 24 DARS 28 DARS 32 DARS better use water reserves Legume biomass (t ha-1) Shenggen Fan, October 2013

17 Seasonal CH4 emission (kg CH4-C / ha) Examples systems research: Methane emissions in rice y = -61x R 2 = 0.94 Serendipity v d Gon, Kropff, v Breemen, PNAS Dry season Wet season Linear WS and DS Yield (t/ha) Sink limitation was process in the model Otherwise???.

18 Examples systems research: Scenario analysis with APSIM in Bangladesh CIMMYT-CSIRO incl. training! Examine on farm and on station trials in terms of: Changing from conventional to conservation agriculture (water conservation) Increasing mechanisation (reducing labour for production) Comparing different rabi crops: e.g. boro vs. maize vs. wheat vs. lentil Examining the feasibility of including a third crop between rabi and kharif

19 Average rainfall (mm) 1 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Examples systems research Using APSIM to optimise cropping systems in Cooch Behar

20 Examples systems research Scenario analysis with APSIM in Bangladesh

21 STARS: Model for irrigation scheduling in the Delta region of Bangladesh Daily Weather Tmax Tmin Solar radiation Precipitation MODEL Ground Cover (%) from remote sensing Forecasted irrigation need (yes/no) Water table depth

22 Example of small scale spatial variability measured on farmers fields in Bangladesh Wet Dry Intermediate Intermediate Dry Wet Dry Wet Intermediate

23 System LER, Relative yield total Examples systems research Groundnut pigeonpea intercrop 2.0 Md pigeonpea intercrop Year Sole crops Yield LER ipnmdpp RYT ipnmdpp APSIM (ICRISAT) Rao Nageswara, Meinke and Kropff, 2016

24 Examples systems research: Cassman and van Ittersum et al

25 Examples systems research: Crop insurance in India: Reaching the Unreached Weather based scheme since 2007operational since million farmers covered 67 crops covered Subsidized; linked to credit Yet dissatisfied stakeholders Farmers due to poor weather triggers for yield loss estimates Industry due to limited profits Government due to subsidy load

26 Farmer's Satisfaction Index Examples systems research Improvement by using crop models and optimization Farmer s satisfaction with new rainfall triggers: Example from Maharashtra, India Current Index New Index Paddy Pearl Millet Cotton Soybean More than a million farmers used this product in 2015 in one crop season alone

27 Systems research: Examples Modelling at different scales? Multi-scale and Multi-dimensional analysis Global Continental National Economic Regional Natural Social Institutional Farm Field Ewert et al., 2006

28 Example systems approaches Using crop models to look at crop yields under future climate (CIAT) Percent change in yields by 2030s and RCP4.5 Gourdji et al. (in prep.)

29 2016 s data in search of a system Modelling: a New Era

30 Examples Systems research: Breeding predicting G x E x M Genotype (QTL) Yield G x E x M Physiological trait Ecophysiological model Yin, Kropff, Stam 2004, TIPS

31 FUTURE NEEDS AND OPPORTUNITIES: AN INVITATION Ravi Singh CIMMYT: Can modellers explain and help identifying the parents for crosses Targeting G to E and M Data: 700 lines x 70 locations Ravi Singh and Norman Borlaugh

32 CIMMYT operates a global breeding platform

33 Wheat yield Yaqui Valley (Ton/Ha) Adapting to Climate Change: Heat Tolerant Wheats prove their Value in Farmers Fields in Mexico: Explain? Y= X R 2 = C increase = 700 Kg lower yield CIRNO January-April Average min. Temperature C Source: H.-J. Braun, I. Ortiz-Monasterio CIMMYT

34 CIMMYT and others in The CGIAR: A dream collaboration for modellers people studying crops worldwide!!! Modelling expertise scattered: data in search of modellers G x E x M: Models should be a standard tool next to statistical models (improving G component) Large multilocation datasets: all sorts of treatments: agronomy-modelling Model improvements Platform big data: Community of Practice modellers Understanding the model principles!!! Training Modeling in the value chain

35 Conclusion AgriFood central to all challenges Modelling has to become a standard tool in AgRes A revival with new approaches and open innovations? The CGIAR : a dream for modellers Capacity building: understanding the models (no misuse An invitation! Data in search of models 2016! New intensive collaboration with modelling groups Enhancing impact of science!

36 Diego Rivera Tlatelolco Market Mural

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38 Thank you for your interest!