ASEAN MEDIA FORUM. Review of Global and Regional Food Security Situation and Future Outlook

Transcription

1 ASEAN MEDIA FORUM Review of Global and Regional Food Security Situation and Future Outlook Hiroyuki Konuma FAO Assistant Director-General and Regional Representative for Asia and the Pacific Singapore, July 2012

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5 91% of Asia and the Pacific s undernoulished population live in just 6 countries 91 percent of undernourished in Asia and the Pacific live in just 6 countries Philippines, 13.2, (2%) Indonesia, 29.9, (5%) Others, 49.8, (9%) Bangladesh, 41.7, (8%) India, 237.7, (44%) Pakistan, 43.4, (8%) China, 130.4, (24%) 5

6 Asia and the Pacific is the home of 62 percent (2/3)of world hungry population, despite remarkable economic growth 6

7 7 Source: ESCAP

8 8 Poor consumers Proportion of poor ((living less than US$ 1.25/day) in total population dropped from 50% to 22% between 2990 and 2009 in Asia However, success in economic growth did not result in alleviating hunger Inequitable distribution of benefit of economic growth Widening income disparity and inequality at both in least developed and middle income countries Micro nutrient malnutrition affecting additional two billion people, particularly children More than one billion people over weight New factor influencing hunger : Food price hike and volatility affected poor consumers who spend a large portion of income for food

9 Food prices are high and volatile Food prices are high and volatile (still remains 2 times high from 10 years ago)

10 Corn future market at Chicago Board of trade, 25 July 2012 (US$787.50) 10

11 wheat future market at Chicago Board of Trade, 25 July 2012 (US$ 903) 11

12 Proportion of undernourished population in Asia-Pacific region remains 16%,far from MDG target of 10% to be achieved by 2015) Proportion Source: FAO SOFI 2010

13 Can we produce sufficient food to meet the demand of growing future population? 13

14 World population millions Source: UN, developed Sub-Saharan Africa NothAfrica and the Middle East Latin America and Caribb South Asia Eastern Asia percentage annual growth rate (right scale)

15 Food consumption (Kcal/person/day) / / / Industrial countries Near East-North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America & Caribbean East Asia Source: Alexandratos,

16 Urbanization Source: UN, billions Rural Urban

17 Changes in the composition of diets 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Subsaharan Africa Latin America and Caribbean 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Near East and North Africa % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% South Asia % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% East Asia Roots & tubers Dairy Sugar 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Industrial countries Cereals Meat Veg oils Others Source: Alexandratos,

18 Global production in 2050 Compared to 2005/07, the world would produce every year one more billion tons of cereals (45%) 196 more million tons of meats (76%) 713 more million tons of roots and tubers (64%) 172 more million tons of soybeans (79%) 429 more million tons of fruits (68%) 365 more million tons of vegetables (47%) 18

19 Past and projected increases in global production world developing countries developed countries / (projected) /07 (observed) percent Source: Bruinsma,

20 Is there enough land? million ha Arable land in use, 2005/07 Additional land projected to be in use, Developed countries sub-saharan Africa Latin America Near East / North Africa South Asia East Asia Source: Bruinsma,

21 Increasing water use for agriculture, which accounts 70% of total water use 21

22 Water is a Key Requirement for Food Production 10th New Ag International Conference and Exhibition, March Source: 2012, Bangkok Selected Indicators, FAO -RAP 2011

23 Sources of production growth world developing developed Yields increases between 2005/07 and 2050 Crop intensity increases between 2005/07 and 2050 Area increase between 2005/07 and 2050 (percent) Source: Bruinsma,

24 Yields need to increase over average 0.8%/year towards 2050, compared to 1.7% in past decades / / / / / cereals (growth % per year) cereals (tons/ha) soybeans (tons/ha) soybeans (growth % per year) Source: Bruinsma,

25 Uncertainties ( uncertain factors influencing future food security) Crude oil prices hike Food price volatility Impact of climate changes Bio-fuel development etc. 25

26 Crude oil price increased over 500% since 1999

27 Uncertainty: climate change worse case 2080 scenario: less harvested area, up to - 39% (World) and -29% (developing countries) up to 130 million more undernourished in S-SH Africa Source: IIASA (Fischer, 2011) Source: IPCC (2007) 27

28 The number of natural disasters occurring worldwide has increased 400 Number of Disasters Africa Asia-Pacific Caribbean Europe Latin America North America Source: ESCAP and ISDR, The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2010.

29 World bio-ethanol and bio-diesel production is projected to be doubled in 20 years between 2009 and 2018; increasing competition of land and water use with food production, in addition to competition of use of food grains between bio-ethanol and food/feed

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32 Conclusion Resources may be sufficient to produce food for 9.2 billion people, but huge investment agricultural research and infrastructure is required to increase productivity Reduce post-harvest losses and waste --access to food by the poor remains a critical issue which requires targeted approach; safety net Yields increases may be attained, but natural resources management needs to be improved substantially to counteract competition,over use,etc. Crude oil price hike, food price volatility, bio-fuel developmentandclimate changes are major sources of uncertainty 32

33 Everyone has a right to access to food Food is essential for our survival, stability, peace and world security Building awareness, sense of strong solidarity, help each other Sustainable consumption, reduce waste Public and private sector partnership and working together Thank you 33