Agriculture, Brexit and UK climate policy

Transcription

1 Agriculture, Brexit and UK climate policy Baroness Brown of Cambridge Vice Chair Committee on Climate Change Chair Adaptation Sub-Committee 8 th February

2 Global temperatures continue to rise 2014, 2015 & 2016 have consecutively been record breaking years Source: Carbon Brief

3 Impacts of climate change will be felt in agriculture on soil quality

4 and on water availability

5 Land management important to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change Reducing emissions Land is only sector that currently sequesters carbon Opportunities to sequester more: tree planting, peat restoration Combining biomass with CCS to deliver negative emissions Scope for emissions cuts in agriculture How we use and manage land will play a crucial role as part of a global and UK pathway to economy-wide net zero emissions beyond 2050 Ensuring resilience Improving soil health to maintain food production Planting trees to alleviate flood risk downstream Restoring peat to improve water quality & availability Synergies: many measures to reduce emissions/increase carbon sink have positive outcomes for ensuring resilience to climate change 5

6 Climate Change Act sets the framework to reduce emissions in the UK The Climate Change Act A goal 2050 Emissions Target 2 A pathway 5-yearly carbon budgets 3 A toolkit Requirement that Government brings forward policies 4 A monitoring framework Committee on Climate Change to monitor progress & suggest changes

7 Carbon budgets provide stepping stones to the 80% 2050 target Notes: 2050 target allows for emissions from international aviation and shipping, not currently in carbon budgets

8 : 5 Carbon Budgets so far.

9 Areas delivering major reductions to allowed emissions 2 Reduction on 2008 Scenario emissions to % -65%

10 Electricity Generation: 80 90% reduction by gCO 2 /kwhr today Below 100gCO 2 /kwhr in 2030 Zero in 2050 Negative contribution Wind Other renewables Battery and other storage Nuclear: fission and fusion? CCS BECCS

11 Implications of Brexit for UK climate policy: key messages The UK s climate goals have not changed: the 80% 2050 target and carbon budgets remain appropriate Existing UK commitments need strong new policies that set a clearer direction across the economy, irrespective of Brexit Some policy previously set at EU level should be preserved and strengthened in future (e.g. product and efficiency standards) The UK should take opportunities to improve on some EU policy approaches (e.g. CAP) 11

12 Implications of Brexit for carbon budgets UK action is based on the 2008 Climate Change Act. This is domestic legislation which stands irrespective of the UK s membership of the EU: The legislated fifth carbon budget remains appropriate Uncertainty is not a new development Carbon budgets would need an accounting adjustment if UK leaves EU ETS Carbon budgets could be the basis for a UK pledge to the UN negotiations 12

13 Policies agreed by the UK at EU level have helped reduce emissions Policies negotiated & agreed to by the UK at EU level made a significant contribution to the UK s 38% reduction in GHG emissions since 1990 Renewable Energy Directive Waste Directive EU ETS New car CO 2 standards Product standards Source: CCC (2016) Meeting Carbon Budgets 2016 Progress Report to Parliament 13

14 Continuing UK emissions reductions after leaving the EU The fifth carbon budget commits UK to 57% reduction from 1990 to 2030 This will require actions across all sectors of the economy, whatever the circumstances as the UK leaves the EU Many aspects of EU policy will need to be preserved or replicated, especially where there are clear advantages from coordinated action New UK policies will be needed where EU policies no longer apply or are weakened Opportunities to improve on EU approaches should clearly be taken 14

15 There is already a policy gap to the fifth budget & this could widen after Brexit We estimate EU-level policies could have contributed around 55% of the total emissions reduction required in 2030 (shaded areas) Source: CCC (2016) Meeting Carbon Budgets Implications of Brexit for UK climate policy 15

16 The devil will be in the detail About 80% of UK environmental legislation is of EU origin The Great Repeal Bill will, in theory, convert it all into UK legislation DEFRA estimate that about 33% of environmental won t fit into the Great Repeal Bill because, eg: it refers to EU agencies, systems or resources it relies on international cooperation through EU Law compliance and enforcement rely on the Commission or CJEU Investment: EIB invests significantly in UK projects: water, flood defences, sustainable energy Research: what will replace Horizon 2020 and European research collaborations? Do we have enough resource in DEFRA to deal with the change? 16

17 UK should take opportunities to improve on EU approaches Government will need to be proactive in deciding the level of ambition it is aiming for where EU policies no longer apply There will be an opportunity for the UK to develop bespoke policies The CAP, for example: Does not directly target GHG reduction or adaptation A UK policy framework should link farming support more closely to: reducing emissions delivering other eco-system services e.g. biodiversity, soil health adaptation and flood management services 17

18 Agricultural emissions of 49 MtCO 2 e accounted for 9.5% of UK emissions in 2014 Total UK GHG emissions (514 MtCO 2 e) Set to become a larger share as other sectors decarbonise more quickly

19 MtCO 2 e 1990 EU policies have indirectly influenced a long-term reduction in emissions Long-term trend of declining UK agricultural emissions (-16% since 1990) Total GHG emissions (2016 submission)

20 through CAP reform and legislation on other pollutants CAP Reform has decoupled direct payments from livestock numbers, reducing the stocking densities of cattle and sheep and leading to: declining methane emissions declining N 2 O emissions due to less fertiliser use on grassland, reduced manure application and grazing returns, and reduced manure management EU legislation on other pollutants (e.g. Nitrates Directive & Water Framework Directive ) impacts farming practices (e.g. restricts use of fertiliser in vulnerable zones for water quality)

21 Opportunities and ways forward for agriculture after Brexit UK policy should aim to reduce agriculture emissions by 15% below 2014 levels by 2030 Replacement of CAP Develop new approaches Link farming support to actions that: Reduce emissions Deliver other public goods and ecosystem services (e.g. flood management, water availability and soil health) Scope to develop abatement measures that are currently prohibited within the EU (e.g. GM crops) While ensuring other concerns are not compromised (e.g. animal welfare and wider ecosystem impacts) Retain legislation That impacts emissions reduction in agriculture