Cattle Situation and Outlook

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1 Cattle Situation and Outlook Tim Petry, Livestock Economist OCT 2018 Outlook pptx

2 Livestock Fundamental Highlights Record meat production in 2018 (pork, chicken & total) Record meat including beef production in 2019 Prices for fed and feeder cattle same as last year at this time Cow prices lower Other livestock prices below last year Beef cow herd expanding rate moderating peak 2020? 2018 US calf crop up 692,000 (1.9%) Beef demand robust US economy strong record beef exports in 2017,18, and 19 Top 4 US beef customers (Japan, S. Korea, Mexico, Canada) in trade negotiations causing price volatility Normal seasonal weakness for fall calf prices expected

3 ?

4 WASDE U.S. Meat Production and Prices 2018 Change 2019 Change Forecast from 2017 Forecast From 2018 Production Billion Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds Percent Pounds Percent Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total meat Prices Dollars/cwt Dollars/cwt. Steers Hogs Cents/lb Cents/lb. Broilers Turkey record high Oct 11, 2018

5 Mountains of Meat M-S-03A 10/01/17 Data Source: USDA/NASS, Livestock Marketing Information Center M-C-01 09/03/17

6

7 -3.7 %

8

9

10

11

12

13 Mil. Head 140 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY BY CYCLE U.S., January Data Source: USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center C-N-40 01/31/18

14 US Total 1044 CHANGE IN BEEF COWS 2017 TO 2018 (1000 Head) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS US Total /01/18

15 How much expansion is needed? Cow Inventory and Beef Production Million Head Billion Pounds Cow Inventory Beef Production Source: USDA compiled by LMIC

16 Average Net Return to Labor and Management Per Beef Cow N.D. Farm Business Mgmt., Excluding Red River Valley Average Projected High 20% Low 20%

17 150 SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Fut 2019 Fut

18 USDA AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

19

20 U.S. Ranking in World Production Exports Beef 1 1,4 Pork 2 1 Chicken 1 2 Turkey 1 1 Eggs 2 2

21 Major U.S. Meat Export Customers BEEF PORK CHICKEN Japan Mexico Mexico Korea Japan Canada Mexico Canada Cuba Canada China Hong Kong Hong Kong Korea Taiwan China? Australia China Ø

22

23 Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

24 Other Livestock Data Source: USDA AMS; Livestock Marketing Information Center

25 MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, N.D., Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Ave

26 Data Source: USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

27 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS - Livestock Marketing Information Center

28 MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES Pounds, N.D., Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT 2018 Futures 2019 Futures Ave

29 Projected Calf Backgrounding Profit 550 lb. to 750 lb. $3.10 corn, $90 hay 750 lb. Sales Price 550 lb. Steer Purchase Price ($/cwt) JAN FC $ MAR FC $ CME CS $156.26

30 SF_LS766 Sioux Falls, SD Thu Oct 4, 2018 USDA-ND Dept of Ag Market News Stockmans Livestock Exchange - Dickinson, ND Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 10/04/2018 Receipts: 1129 Last Week: 994 Year Ago: 3350 Compared to last week: Limited test on yearling steers and heifers. Very good demand for today's offering of spring calves that were preconditioned and off the cow in moderate to light flesh. Feeder steers made up 55 percent. Feeder heifers made up 38 percent. Feeder bulls made up 7 percent. 31 percent over 600 lbs. Next sale is October 11, 2018, expecting 2000 new crop calves. Feeder Steers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price Calves Calves Calves

31

32 Premiums likely (but not consistent) for: Verified shots (ND VIP) Natural (no antibiotics or implants) Source/age verified (China) Weaned Bovine Viral Diarrhea persistently infected (BVD-PI) tested negative Beef Quality Assurance (BQA) Replacement quality heifers * Check with your market before selling

33 SF_LS796 Sioux Falls, SD Fri Apr 27, 2018 USDA-ND Dept of Ag Market News North Dakota Weekly Auction Summary - For the week ending Apr 28, 2018 Receipts: 8,841 Last Week 3,399 Last Year 3,870 Feeder Heifers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price Fancy Replacement Replacement Replacement Replacement Replacement

34 $ Per Cwt. 90 SLAUGHTER COW PRICES 85 90% Lean, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT USDA AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

35 Data Source: USDA AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

36 Price Risk Management Tools Cash forward contract Video and internet auctions CME futures CME options Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) Livestock Gross Margin (LGM) Which one or combination fits your marketing plan?

37 Risk Management? JAN FDR CAT

38 Fall Steer Calf LRP Results July 15 to Nov 15 (17 wk) Year Coverage Price Premium Actual Price LRP Payment LRP Profit

39 SF_LS764 Sioux Falls, SD Thu Nov 16, 2017 USDA-ND Dept of Ag Market News Napoleon Livestock Auction Inc.-Napoleon, ND Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 11/16/2017 Receipts: 5297 Last Week: 6255 Year Ago: 5298 Feeder Steers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price Fancy Calves Calves Calves Calves Calves Calves

40 2019: Corn Prices, Demand and Trade Issues? Questions!

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