The UK Foresight Programme

Transcription

1 The UK Foresight Programme NISTEP Conference Tokyo (8 th 9 th March 2011) Martin Glasspool martin.glasspool@bis.gsi.gov.uk

2 "The UK s Foresight Programme aims to bridge the gap in policy making between the short and the long term." Professor Sir John Beddington, Government Chief Scientific Adviser

3 21 st century challenges need enduring solutions Population Water resource and food production Energy security and supply Health and disease Environment and climate change Conflict and terrorism Sustainability

4 Foresight We help Government to think systematically y about the future to develop robust policies for the 21 st century

5 Foresight achieves this in 3 ways: 1. Foresight Projects: landmark studies looking at big issues years in the future 2. Foresight Horizon Scanning Projects: small projects on discrete issues across the entire spectrum of public policy futures years in the future 3. Foresight Toolkits and Networks: share best practice within and across government

6 Previous projects Land Use Futures Mental Capital and Wellbeing Sustainable Detection & Intelligent Energy & the Built Identification of Infrastructure Environment Infectious Diseases Systems Tackling Obesities: Future Choices Brain Science Flooding & Cyber Trust & Exploiting the Addiction & Drugs Coastal Crime Prevention Electromagnetic Defence Spectrum

7 Recent projects Global Food and Farming Futures (January 2011) International ti Dimensions i of Climate Change (March 2011) Global Environmental Migration (Autumn 2011) Computer Trading in Financial Markets Computer Trading in Financial Markets (Summer 2012)

8 Who is involved? Ministerial/High Level Stakeholder Group GCSA Expert Advisory Group Foresight team Core experts International contributors Stakeholders eg NGOs, RCs Scientific & Engineering Experts

9 Projects have three phases Phase 1: Understanding what is happening Phase 2: Analysis of policy options Phase 3: Report Production Dec 2009 July 2010 Apr 2011 Oct 2011

10 Reviewing the evidence Population trends Income distribution Price volatility Urbanisation State of play data gathering Food system today Competition for land Waste Agriculture & ecosystem services Climate change impact Water Consumption Governance Globalisation Modelling review 1. Data initiative 2. Modelling Economics & Modelling Second Meeting Projected demand for food Marine capture Inland fisheries Aquaculture Post harvest Aqua Meeting Projected supply of food Horizon Scanning Meeting Energy and carbon policy Agricultural investment Food chain Workshop Livestock production Crop production Ref: Global Food and Farming Futures

11 Regional studies UK (in Europe) Sustainable production potential Ref: Global Food and Farming Futures China High production growth, high investment in research Mekong Delta Inland fish production Brazil Agriculture, food prices, pressure on environment Nile catchment Developing countries, transnational water issues India Consumption trends, culturally diverse

12 Examples of futures analysis Systems maps Quantitative analysis Societal influences Individual psychology Numbers of obese overtake healthy weight around Food Production Food Consumption Individual activity Activity environment 50% Biology Data source: HSE Scenarios R Scenario 1 E S Scenario 2 P Values O N S Scenario 3 E S Scenario 4 Technology road mapping

13 Typical project outputs Analysis of recent developments Visions of possible futures Recommendations for action Networks of people p keen to take findings forward

14 The Future of Food and Farming (Launched: January 2011) Three key messages Radical redesign of the global food system Ending Hunger No action/change is not an option Policies and decisions Policies and decisions outside of the food system also critical

15 Five Challenges A Balancing future demand and supply sustainably B Addressing the threat t of future volatility in the food system C Ending Hunger D Meeting the challenges of a low emissions i world E Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while feeding the world

16 Achieving impact - International North America Canada - Animal Health Strategy US Modelling obesities China Flood risk management Drivers of infectious disease EU Nutrition Platform European Centre for Disease Control Africa AU and Southern African Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance

17 Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre Looking ahead beyond usual timescales Looking across beyond usual sources More than one type of future Looking around beyond usual cultures

18 Horizon Scanning Previous Projects UK Futures Project The Future of Ageing The Future of Communications Convergence WIST (Wider Implications of Science & Technology) EU Neighbours Future of Food The Future Families Project

19 Technology and Innovation Futures Technology and Innovation Futures (Launched: November 2010)

20 HSC toolkit : 24 futures techniques 3 stages of strategy Analysis Formulation Implementation Visioning Scenarios Back-castingcasting Trend analysis Systems map 7 Questions.. 6 stages of horizon scanning Scoping Gathering info Spotting signals Watch trends Make sense Agree response Descriptions, guidance, Case Studies

21 Conclusions Foresight is critical to long term policy-making Foresight is able to understand and impact policy, through evidence-based, peer reviewed strategic insights Our findings have supported the Government to think beyond normal time horizons to identify enduring solutions

22 Useful web-links: Foresight: Horizon Scanning Tool Kit: Government Office for Science: g Department of Business Innovation and Skills: