Polling for Ballot Measures

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1 Polling for Ballot Measures Successful Efforts 101 1

2 Surveys are the best way we have to be efficient with resources and hit the mark the first time. 2

3 Scientific survey results seeks to tell us Do voters initially support your measure? How strongly? When is the best timing for the measure? Which groups of voters support or oppose it? What key components are voters most willing to fund? What are the strongest rationales in support of the measure? How effective are criticisms of the measure? After they ve heard both sides, will voters support you? Is the conventional wisdom or insiders assessment of the measure correct? 3

4 Surveys work because a few bites can adequately represent the larger whole. 4

5 Timing Matters 5

6 Typical Tax Measure Dynamics Less Supportive More Supportive Seniors Young Voters White Men Voters of Color Republicans Democrats 6

7 More supportive voters turn out in major elections: Arizona example years years years years 65+ years Turnout Difference Score: +11% -14% Based off i360 voter file analysis; turnout from SoS 7

8 Ballot Language is Critical 8

9 Support for a water bond measure was lukewarm at both amounts tested ($60 million vs. $30 million) $60 Million Bond Total Yes 55% Total No 35% $30 Million Bond Total Yes 52% Total No 36% Probably No: 17% Probably Yes: 32% Definitely Yes: 23% Undecided 10% Definitely No: 18% Probably No: 17% Probably Yes: 29% Definitely No: 19% Definitely Yes: 23% Undecided 12% * N = 154 ^ N = 158 9

10 Top-testing benefits focused on agriculture. Planning ahead to ensure adequate water for future needs Encouraging locally-produced foods from farms in our area Ensuring that local farms which have been in families for generations are able to continue working Protecting thousands of farming and ranching jobs in our area Preventing local farm and ranch dry-ups Providing a stable water supply to support local farms and ranches Ensuring that more than 56 thousand acres of local farm and ranchland has a reliable water source Ranked By Extremely/Very Important Extremely Important - 39% 39% 39% 40% 38% 34% 46% 83% 83% 82% 78% 77% 77% 72% I'm going to read you some specific things which MIGHT be funded if a proposal is placed on the ballot in November. Keeping in mind that it is difficult for everything to be equally important, please tell me how important each one of these is to you personally. 10

11 How you accomplished the goals of helping farmers (reservoirs, etc.) was of lower importance Filling the gap between our water needs and current supply Ensure that the district hosts community meetings to share project updates and gather public input Increasing the amount of water stored in local reservoirs, like the Chatfield Reservoir Creating new reservoir storage Ranked By Extremely/Very Important Extremely Important - 29% 24% 29% 26% 62% 62% 61% 60% Protecting wetlands and wildlife habitat near rivers and streams 25% 60% A citizen board representing district communities would increase accountability and oversee funding 22% 60% 11

12 Using the Data New language tested mid-stream addressing water shortages and enhancing the district's ability to provide area working farms and ranches with water by participating in the Chatfield Reservoir reallocation project, acquiring reclaimed former gravel mining areas and purchasing equipment and installing infrastructure for new gravel pit sites for water storage, and purchasing senior water rights to secure additional water supplies. enabling local farm food production, keeping ranches working, and decreasing farm dry ups by financing the costs of securing additional water supplies, acquiring, reclaiming and improving sites for water storage, and participating in the Chatfield reservoir water storage reallocation project. 12

13 Revised ballot question that included less technical concepts yielded a much more positive response Initial Ballot Language Total Yes 55% Total No 35% Updated Ballot Language Total Yes 64% Total No 26% Probably Yes: 32% Definitely Yes: 23% Probably Yes: 42% Definitely Yes: 22% Probably No: 17% Undecided 10% Definitely No: 18% Probably No: 14% Definitely No: 13% Undecided 10% 13

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15 Know What to Say And to Whom 15

16 On Election Day, 75% of those who voted on Alabama s Amendment One supported it. Actual Election Results 16

17 The campaign had support of sportsmen but not most other voters initially Amendment One Data By Sportsmen 2012 Amendment One Ballot By Sportsmen 78% 76% 62% 43% 44% 17% 21% 13% 22% 24% Sportsmen (30%) Non-Sportsmen (70%) Sportsmen (30%) Non-Sportsmen (70%) Yes No Unsure/Refused 17

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20 Voters want to hear how they benefit NOT how land conservation works. So, one land conservation organization shifted from calling its effort the PDR (purchase of development rights) program to the Ranchlands and Natural Areas Program. 20

21 In fact, nationally we have found that the phrase conservation easement tends to put people off. From the following list of proposed names, please rate each name on an imaginary thermometer from 0 degrees to 100 degrees, where 0 means you have a very cold/unfavorable reaction and 100 means you have a very warm/favorable reaction, with fifty being neither cold NOR warm. Source: 2004 National Survey 21

22 Accountability provisions are often important to incorporate. Provisions Ranked By Much More Likely % Much More Likely % Total More Likely Full public disclosure of all expenditures will be required. 53% 75% Decisions about how funds are spent will be based on recommendations made by the citizens advisory committees who studied cultural, parks and recreation needs in our area. 34% 68% Conduct an annual independent audit and make it available to the public. 32% 69% A sunset or automatic expiration of the tax in 15 years. 22% 55% The proposal COULD also include a number of provisions, so for each of the following please tell me if you would be more or less likely to vote Yes in support of the measure if it included a provision for... City Ballot of Gainesville, Measures FL 101: Likely Public Primary Opinion Voters Strategies 2015 Survey 22 22

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