The data has been sourced from IRI retail databases and Eurostat the statistical branch of administration for the European Commission.

Transcription

1 Welcome to the Pulse Q edition for Food. We hope you find it useful. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or comments at

2 Food IRI Pulse Q About the Report ThisFoodreportisoneof10super category reports designed to show high-level comparison and analysis for retail markets across major countries in Europe. This report contains data gathered from around Europe. This market was split into the following categories: Vegetables, Potato Products, Ice Cream, Desserts, Meat, Fish, Ready and Dough & Bread Products. The report highlights key metrics such as total sales figures, market trends, category shares, winners and losers for Europe and for individual countries. The data has been sourced from IRI retail databases and Eurostat the statistical branch of administration for the European Commission. The countries included in the report are: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the UK. The market channels used for each country in this report are as follows: Country UK ES DE NL IT FR Channels used Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Drugstores and Impulse Outlets Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Hard Discounters, Drugstores and includes the Canary Islands Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Hard Discounters and Drugstores Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Hard Discounters and Drugstores Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Small Self Service, Hard Discounters and Drugstores Hypermarkets and Supermarkets For analytical purposes the data sourced from available retail databases has been consolidated to provide consistent results. However, for some countries it has not been possible to source data pertaining to certain categories. When this has occurred it has been documented in the Notes section found at the end of the report. 2

3 Food IRI Pulse Q In the Radar Food across Europe continues to grow in value terms, inflation remaining the main factor masking the general decline in Food volumes. The Horse Meat Scandal that hit at the start of 2013 has not helped sales in the short term, notably within ready meals. The impact of this appears to have been short lived with category sales returning to normal. Séverine Malmejean Unit Director France, IRI Economic figures influencing consumer behavior Population in Unemployment (%) Average 12 Months Inflation Rate GDP in ( ) January 2011 January 2012 Feb Average 2012 Mar Average (Estimate) 2013 (Estimate) France ,032,297 2,059,358 Germany ,644,200 2,694,499 Italy ,565,916 1,568,388 Netherlands , ,459 Spain ,049,525 1,051,076 United Kingdom ,854,920 Source: Eurostats, March

4 Food IRI Pulse Q Global Trends Value sales and growth and decline in the last year +1.2% +1.7% +0.9% +3.3% Value Sales in ( ) Total EU 23,024 DE 8,114 UK 4,501* FR 3,703 IT 3,509 ES 2,284 NL 913 *based on an exchange rate of to the pound -0.6% +0.4% Positive Trend Static Trend Negative Trend TOTAL EUROPE +1.7% Value sales for the last six quarters 7,000 6, France 5, Germany 4,000 1,949 1,923 2,065 1,988 2,044 2,016 Italy 3,000 2,000 1, , ,065 1,088 1,185 1,153 1,071 1, Jan Apr Jul Oct Dec Mar-13 Netherlands Spain UK Period Ending 4

5 Food IRI Pulse Q Europe Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year 21.6% 7,000 6, % 6,000 5,000 4, % 10.1% Euros 4,000 3,000 2,000 3,840 2,335 2,161 1, % 1.7% 0.0% 4.1% 7.6% Ready Fish Meat Desserts All other Meats 9.4% 1, Vegetables Potato Products Dough & Bread Products Poultry Top 5 Categories Evolution Value Sales ( ) and % Change vs. Yr Ago 6,633 4,963 Key Trends Overall at a European level, Food sales continue to grow consistently in value terms, with a 1,7% rise in the latest year vs. 1,7% in Q , , , This topline trend is hiding disparities between countries : Germany and France driving value growth with respectively +3,3% (vs. 2.1% in Q4) and +1,7% (vs. +1,7%), when other countries show a slowing trend vs : UK from +1,9% to +1,2%; Netherlands +1,6% vs. +0,9% and Italy +1,2% vs. +0,4%. Italy even switch from +0,5% to -0,6% in Q1. Ready Fish Vegetables Meat Value growth continues to be driven by inflation whilst consumption (volume sales) decline. Total Sales % vs. YA Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and United Kingdom As a consequence, Hard Discounters and Private Labels benefit from the situation, except in France. 5

6 Food IRI Pulse Q Europe Top 5 Winners: Value Sales Top 5 Losers: Value Sales Meat Ready All other Meats Potato Products Poultry Vegetables Dough & Bread Products Fish Category Insights The top 5 performing categories had a combined growth of 403 millions vs. last year. This slow down in absolute sales growth (vs. 412 millions combined growth in Q4 2012) mainly coming from whilst on the other hand the likes of Potatoes and Vegetables have shown an accelerated absolute sales growth. Meat growth still driven by German Discounters due to the development of their Private Label product offering. Ready are surprisingly on a good trend in all countries despite the Horse Meat Scandal. This growth is mainly due to pizzas and snacks fuelled by high levels of promotions. The Horse Meat Scandal did have a negative impact on sales in Germany, France and the UK, although this was short lived. Potato is still driven by price inflation in UK and innovation and promotion in France. Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and United Kingdom 6

7 Food IRI Pulse Q France Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year 21.9% 1, % 1, % 11.6% Euros % 1.9% 9.0% Ready Fish Vegetables Desserts 10.0% Meat Potato Products Dough & Bread Products Ready Top 5 Categories Evolution Value Sales ( ) and % Change vs. Yr Ago Fish Total Sales % vs. YA 429 Meat Vegetables Key Trends The Market is relatively static in volume terms in the first quarter of 2013 but is showing a marginal (-0,3%) annual decline in volume sales. No significant shifts regarding value growth: with +1,7% in Q1 compared with Q4 +1,8% whilst total FMCG shows +2,1% on the same period. Inflation remains the main driver of value growth although price inflation is slowing quarter on quarter: +1,9% vs. +2,5% in Q4 and +3,0% in Q3 As a consequence French consumers have started upgrading their repertoire from the beginning of the year: +2,6 in Q1 vs +1,2 in MAT on the frozen market and at FMGC level as well (+1,1% in Q1 vs.+0,3% MAT) Private Label are main losers in this fight as they continue to lose market share. 7

8 Food IRI Pulse Q France Top 5 Winners: Value Sales Top 5 Losers: Value Sales Meat 32.6 Potato Products Ready 3.8 Desserts 3.1 Category Insights Meat is once again the biggest contributor to Food value growth in France (+8,2% vs. +8,5% in Q4) but volume sales are no longer in the same trend (- 0,4% vs. +0,2% in Q4). 47% of the growth coming from Charal. Potatoes continue to grow in value terms (+8,7%) and at slower rate in volume (+3,2%). McCain is the key winner, driven by innovation and promotion, while Findus negative trend is slowing the overall category. underwent strong annual volume decline in Q1 with -3,5% in volume, (one with the worst evolution) - very bad weather conditions in France at the end of the year and in March 13 (March 2012 was unexpectedly warm). Value growth driven by mini cups, with Haagen-Dazs, leader in this segment, and Unilever launching Magnum cups. Ready : driven by Pizzas (+4%) and Pies (+5%) innovation. Horse Meat Scandal: Announced mid February, the crisis first affected the whole frozen market. Since March, only Ready seems to been negatively impacted, as affected products were removed from the sale. By the end of Q1 13, value sales of the category were declining at -16,9% vs. YA. desert are driven by the expansion of private labels product offering. 8

9 Food IRI Pulse Q Germany Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year 17,7% ,2% ,2% 9,2% Euros ,4% ,6% 6,7% 5,0% Ready Desserts Potato Products 0 Meat Fish Vegetables Dough & Bread Products Top 5 Categories Evolution Value Sales ( ) and % Change vs. Yr Ago Key Trends Food sales increased mainly due to inflation (>3,7% vs. YA) whilst volume is stable; Hypermarkets and Hard Discounters are the main winners with growth reported in almost all categories Significant increase in promotional sales and price/kg has been observed across all channels; Hard Discounters has shown significant growth in both value and volume. 7,2 1,7 3, , ,4 Meat s growth was mainly driven by development of Private Label in Hard Discounters where volume increases was coupled with increased average prices. Ready Total Sales Meat Fish % vs. YA Desserts Ready which declined in the last Quarter has returned to growth this quarter mainly due lower priced Lasagne products by the manufacturers ahead of the Horse Meat Scandal. 9

10 Food IRI Pulse Q Germany Top 5 Winners: Value Sales Top 5 Losers: Value Sales Meat 96,9 Ready 50,4 Fish 50,3 36,1 Desserts 19,5-14,2 Dough & Bread Products Category Insights Ready grew in the past 12 months due to Complete Ready. However, in Q1, this was affected by the Horse Meat Scandal which was first reported on 15 th January by Ireland s Food Safety Authority; and later spread to Germany in February. As a direct effect, sales of frozen ready meals declined and more notably that of Lasagne products which featured in the scandal. Lasagne sales declined by more than 50% having an overall negative impact on the total frozen ready meals category of around 15% (ex Hard Discount). Private Label was more affected by this crisis than brands. German consumers eat very little horse meat even though it is known to be healthy option. According to the IRI consumer study on food scandals 81% of the German consumers consider the real scandal in this specific case in the lacking declaration of food contents rather than being concerned about health issues or due to disgust for horse meat. Meat is in positive growth in both meat & poultry; primarily it is being attributed to the significant development of Private Label poultry within the Hard Discounters. Dough & Bread Products continues to decline due to the continued losses in Discounters (due to Bun/Croissants & Baguette/Ciabatta); however it is growing in supermarkets ( sqm) due to Bun/Croissants. Fish growth is fueled by the double digit growth of Private Label for both Fish & Sea Food; notably driven by the introduction of Private Label Molluscs /Crusts within Lidl. 10

11 Food IRI Pulse Q Italy Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year 21,8% ,6% ,9% Euros ,9% 1,0% 0,9% 3,2% 3,6% 19,2% Vegetables Potato Products Desserts Dough & Bread Products Fish Ready Meat Dough & Bread Products Top 5 Categories Evolution Value Sales ( ) and % Change vs. Yr Ago Key Trends Year on year most of frozen categories still showing a positive trend; situation worsened over the last 6 months: shopper is reducing stock at home and conveying purchases on necessary products only not favourable condition for non essential categories Q1 13 confirming that vegetables are still in growth whilst larger markets such as and Fish record remarkable declines. 0,4-2,3 1,9 1, ,2 Formergoodperformingsegmentslike Pizza and Meat have stalled in Q1 13. Fish Vegetables Ready Potato Products Promotions continue to grow across all markets off setting price inflation mitigating volume sales declines. Total Sales % vs. YA Horse Meat Scandal had little impact in Italy with no tangible impact on market performances. 11

12 Food IRI Pulse Q Italy Top 5 Winners: Value Sales Top 5 Losers: Value Sales Vegetables 13,2 Ready 11,7 4,1-0,3 Potato Products Meat 3,9-2,3 Dough & Bread Products Desserts 3,3-18,1 Fish Category Insights : Q1 13 value sales -1,8% ; First Dishes (pasta) continue to show significant decline, their value for money proposition is weakened by a shopper s reduced capability to spend ; nevertheless innovation is allowing some contrast to this trend (Findus A regola D arte) ; a long phase of growth for Pizza has slowed in the short term. Fish : Q value sales -3,8% ; in the Italian hard economic picture, Fish in general is becoming a luxury item that many shoppers are forced to renounce; when looking for proteins, shoppers are possibly looking to switch to cheaper alternatives (cheese, white meat). Vegetables: Q12013 valuesales+1,9% ;betterperformanceforcheaper natural veg such as Spinach & Peas along with greater promotional support and increased consumption of added value types boosting category sales ; Recipe d Soups bucking this positive trend - strong price inflation led by branded products. Meat : Q value sales -3,1% (vs +7,4 on Y2012) ; innovation in coated poultry which drove the growth over the last 2 years, now starting top back. Q value sales -10% ; current shopper behaviour cutting impulse categories/purchases; along with poor weather influences; winter was hard and spring started in late reducing the opportunity to recover sales in the short term; will a new wave of NPD, mainly coming from leader Unilever revitalise category sales? Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and United Kingdom 12

13 Food IRI Pulse Q Netherlands Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year 21,4% ,1% 12,9% Euros ,6% 1,4% 0,5% 2,2% 7,8% 10,0% Ready Fish Vegetables Dough & Bread Products Poultry Potato Products Desserts All other Meats Top 5 Categories Evolution Value Sales ( ) and % Change vs. Yr Ago Key Trends In the Netherlands, Food is in growth by 2,1% in value terms. Yet, the growth is behind that of the rest of the food and non food market. 2, ,0-3,8 71 4,8 In volume terms, the largest relative growth is from Dough & Bread Products. Ice cream grows on a yearly basis, but is declining on quarterly basis. Discounters are gaining share from service supermarkets. Besides Dough & Bread Products, Potato products and are showing a faster rate of growth within the Discounters than that seen in the service supermarkets. Ready Fish Potato Products Vegetables Total Sales % vs. YA 13

14 Food IRI Pulse Q Netherlands Top 5 Winners: Value Sales Top 5 Losers: Value Sales Ready 10,2-0,5 All other Meats 4,2-1,3 Poultry Vegetables 3,3-1,3 Desserts Dough & Bread Products 1,0-3,6 Fish -3,6 Potato Products Category Insights The top 5 winning categories had a combined growth of 18,7 million vs. last year. The growth comes for most part from Ready. The sales decline for the Top 5 losers is 10,3 million and can mainly be attributed to Fish and Potato Products. The growth in is mainly driven by Ready including Meat Snacks andpizza.meatsnacksgrowthtoalargeextentisdrivenbyinflation.therehavebeen several pack size adjustments in the frozen meat snacks market, which has led to increased volume but lower unit sales. Volume growth is visible for mini snacks as well as some typical Dutch meat snack products, which is probably related to the trend of spending more quality time at home with family and friends. Pizza growth mainly down to price inflation. Dr. Oetker is the only brand achieving volume growth. In the last quarter, 1/3 rd of the pizzas was sold in promotion. continues to grow in value and Volume across all segments. Yet, the largest growth can be contributed to the introduction of a single serve spoonable ice cream by Unilever. The biggest declines are seen in Fish and Potato Products. Fish declining in value, not in Volume. Potato products declining in Service Supermarkets, but still showing growth within discounters. For total supermarkets, the decline is visible for Potato dishes and potato balls and slices. A reason for the fall back in these segments could be the fresher and healthier alternatives that are available within chilled? 14

15 Food IRI Pulse Q Spain Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year 26,8% ,5% 24,2% Euros ,4% 0,2% 3,0% 5,1% 7,8% Fish Ready Dough & Bread Products Desserts Vegetables Potato Products Meat Top 5 Categories Evolution Value Sales ( ) and % Change vs. Yr Ago Key Trends Quarter on quarter Foods in value decline -0,6% in MAT. Whilst volume shows marginal growth 0,8% The increased level of tax from September 12 putting pressure on sales. The main drivers being; Fish & Seafood (-2,7%), Pizzas (1,2%) or (- 0,1%). -2,7-0,1 Fish Total Sales Ready % vs. YA 179 0,7-0,2 Vegetables 116 Dough & Bread Products 3,2 Private Label benefitting from the increased market prices, increasing their dominance +0,2% whilst manufacturers sales decline by -1.5%. Private Labels share now standing at 57,5pt. Over the last few months Pescanova has been receiving the wrong kind of publicity with corporate issues and financial audits. 15

16 Food IRI Pulse Q Spain Top 5 Winners: Value Sales Top 5 Losers: Value Sales Ready 3,7 Dough & Bread Products 3,6-0,4 Vegetables Potato Products 1,0-0,8 Meat 0,7-1,1 Desserts -20,8 Fish Category Insights Nestle is the leading frozen manufacturer, with 7,1 pts of market share, but in decline by -6,1% in -6,8% in volume. In second position Pescanova despite its recent problems is in value growth +3,5% and thirdly, Unilever which is in value decline (-7,2%). The new Findus Group (Findus+Bonduelle) will have changed the assortment and the mix of Vegetables and Ready to Eat categories; turning it in to the brand leader in many sectors however sales continue to struggle (-6,8% in value & -10,5% in volume). The Pizza category trend is reducing the last emphasis; due to Nestle and Oetker. Both manufacturers combined hold more than 59,6 pts of the category (-3,7vs YA). Nestle with 29,5 of share and -10,8% in value. Oetker with 30,1 of share and +2,1% in value. (-0,1%), with Unilever is the market leader, with 17,1 points of value share but with sales -7,2% unable to compete with Private Label s dominance in the category. (69pts value share, +1,2% and a volume share of 84,8pts). 16

17 Food IRI Pulse Q United Kingdom Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year 23.4% 17.3% 1,200 1,083 1,055 1, % 16.0% Euros % 3.9% 4.8% 0 Ready Fish Potato Products Vegetables Desserts Meat ,083 Ready Top 5 Categories Evolution Value Sales ( ) and % Change vs. Yr Ago 1.7 1, Fish Potato Products Vegetables Key Trends The market in the UK is maintaining value growth whilst volumes decline. The growth in value driven by inflation as the volume decline shows a general decline in consumption which is not exclusive to with many ambient categories struggling in the same way. Shoppers are managing their budgets by reducing the amount they buy in terms of the number of units so categories which perhaps are seen as more of a luxury and not a necessity such as would be hit the hardest. It was predicted that Foods would benefit from the recession but this has yet to be seen. Total Sales % vs. YA Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and United Kingdom 17

18 Food IRI Pulse Q United Kingdom Top 5 Winners: Value Sales Top 5 Losers: Value Sales Potato Products 48.1 Vegetables 29.4 Ready Desserts Meat Fish Category Insights Value growth driven by inflation and NPD masking the overall decline in demand as shoppers see this as an unnecessary purchase as they manage their food budgets. Potato remains a key growth category within Foods fuelled by price inflation which is set to have an impact throughout 2013 due to the poor harvest in Potato s promotional volume notably off shelf has declined significantly in the latest quarter so one to watch. Ready Sales of frozen Pizza s are driving growth driven by the likes of Chicago Town s Deep Dish & Takeaway fuelled by their high levels of promotions. Standard ready meals struggling with retailers concentrating on their Own Label chilled offering with welladvertised dine in meal deals. The Horse meat scandal which broke on January 2013, has had a negative impact on sales of Ready and Red Meat - notably Own Label and specific products which highlighted in the press and withdrawn from sale. NPD from Bisto & Linda McCartney unable to have any major impact on overall category sales. Vegetables Value growth driven by inflation & NPD, with volume relatively static. NPD focussing on convenience and added value such as single serving steam/microwavable pouches. Key NPD from Birds Eye Field Fresh, Fullers Spinach, Birds Eye Rice Fusion. Fish Birds Eye & Bird Eye Fish Fusions are the winners with Own Label which was in growth is now one of the biggest losers in Q1 13. Birds Eye fuelled by increased off-shelf deals and deeper price cuts. Young's and Own Label are unable to compete with the increased pressure from Birds Eye. Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and United Kingdom 18

19 Food IRI Pulse Q Final Notes Notes on Category Definitions for Countries Due to the diverse products found in individual countries across this market it was necessary to consolidate the available data into the categories in this report. In some cases it wasn t always possible to align products across all 6 countries hence the need to highlight any anomalies in the report. Those exceptions are listed below: Dough & Bread Products The UK data in this report does not include this category 19

20 Food IRI Pulse Q Resources To gain insight into opportunities across specific categories, segments, channels or retailers, contact your IRI client service representative regarding custom analyses leveraging the following resources: InfoScan Census is a syndicated retail tracking service that enables manufacturers and retailers to acquire industry insights used to make better business decisions. InfoScan Census utilizes the data that IRI collects from grocery, drug, and mass merchandise retailers to provide the most comprehensive and accurate syndicated data offering in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector. With access to accurate, granular detail by category, geography, measure, and time period, clients have the tools needed to develop marketing and sales strategies based on product performance, distribution, and promotion responsiveness. All data about frozen foods are coming from InfoScan Census. IRI Consulting provide strategic insights and advice leveraging a variety of data sources, predictive analytics, enabling technologies, and business analyses to help CPG manufacturers and retailers address significant sales and marketing issues effectively About IRI IRI is a leader in delivering powerful market and shopper information, predictive analysis and the foresight that leads to action. We go beyond the data to ignite extraordinary growth for our clients in the CPG, retail and over-the-counter healthcare industries by pinpointing what matters and illuminating how it can impact their businesses across sales and marketing. Move your business forward at IRIworldwide.eu Contact: IRI, EU.Marketing@IRIworldwide.com, Tel: Copyright 2013 Information Resources Inc, All rights reserved. 20