The influence of climate variability and climate change on the agricultural sector in East and Central Africa

Transcription

1 24 October, WMO meeting The influence of climate variability and climate change on the agricultural sector in East and Central Africa Sensitizing the ASARECA strategic plan

2 Contribution to project output 1. Knowledge available and disseminated to researchers and planners to guide managers in making optimal choices with respect to direct and indirect impacts of climate variability and climate change for the agricultural sector in ECA

3 Review Climate variability and climate change Implications of climate variability and change on agriculture and pastoralists Current climate adaptation tools and approaches to estimate the impacts Options to cope with climate variability and climate change

4 Climate variability and climate change Current climate characteristics Projected changes in temperature and precipitation Projected changes in extreme events Uncertainties and limitations to knowledge

5 Climate variability and climate change Building on: Mude et al. (2007) Kenya Adaptation to Climate Change in the Arid Lands. Anticipating, adapting to and coping with climate risks in Kenya: Operational recommendations for KACCAL Thornton et al. (2008) The livestock-climate-poverty nexus: A discussion paper on ILRI research in relation to climate change. Discussion Paper No. 11. Pp 76 Kinyangi et al. (2008) Scoping study on assessment of vulnerability to climate change and climate variability in the Greater Horn of Africa. Mapping impacts and adaptive capacity

6 Vulnerability to natural disasters Disaster Losses, Total and as Share of GDP, in ten Richest and Poorest countries, Source: Abramovitz, 2001.

7 Implications of climate variability and change on agriculture & pastoralists Where are the impacts? What systems are mostly affected? What is the magnitude of these implications? What are the consequences for natural resources?

8 Where are the impacts? Assess the impact of climate change on agroecological characteristics by looking at changes in the length of growing period (LGP)

9 Where are the impacts? % change in LGP

10 Based on averages of the ECHam4 and the HadCM3 GCM for scenarios A1F1 and B1 Average distribution and range of surface area (%) under certain LGP class Length of growing period (days) 2000 < >250 BDI COD ERI ETH KEN MDG RWA SDN TZA UGA BDI COD ERI ETH KEN MDG RWA SDN TZA UGA

11 What systems are mostly affected? Farming systems in areas with losses in LGP of more than 20%

12 The harvested area of 16 crop commodities (ha), and the relative distribution of these crops (%) over the change in LGP classes over the years 2030 and 2050 What systems are mostly affected? Beside looking at farming systems, we look at crop and livestock data: Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Sudan Tanzania Uganda Maize min max min max min max min max min max min max 2030 >20% loss % loss No change % gain >20% gain >20% loss % loss No change % gain >20% gain

13 What is the magnitude of these implications? The relative importance of the different agricultural commodities varies by country and production system To assess the relative importance of agricultural commodities, the value of agricultural production (VOP) of agricultural products was determined

14 Kenya - the total production and Value of Production (VOP) greater than 0.5 million USD for main agricultural commodities, average values for years 1999 to What is the magnitude of these implications? Commodity Production (MT) VOP (US$) Contribution (%) 1 Maize 2,424, ,846, Cattle (milk) 2,336, ,511, Cattle 287, ,799, Potatoes 943, ,451, Sweet potatoes 541, ,102, Beans 351, ,538, Coffee 73, ,197, Chicken (meat) 54, ,964, Sugarcane 3,969, ,483, Eggs 59,600 61,178, Goats (meat) 33,000 53,224,

15 What are the consequences for natural resources? We briefly touch the subjects of: Water-holding capacities Soil fertility Soil erosion Expansion of this section maybe necessary

16 Current climate adaptation tools and approaches to estimate the impacts Information generation, databases and platforms Computer-based decision tools Adaptation/risk management processes Review of about 40 different tools currently used to estimate impacts or share data Workshop on Sharing Climate Adaptation Tools, held in Geneva, Switzerland, April 2007

17 Options to cope with climate variability and climate change Sensitivity of intervention options promoted by ASARECA Comparison of main commodities and expected changes per country and link this to development domains Sensitivity of development domains Discuss the development domains and how they will be affected by changes in LGP per country What are implications for ASARECA s research portfolio? What type of projects are required to address these issues

18 Thank you ILRI International Livestock Research Institute