The 21. Century The Century of Plant Breeding Meeting the future by plant breeding. Peter Stamp

Transcription

1 The 21. Century The Century of Plant Breeding Meeting the future by plant breeding Peter Stamp

2 Research Station Zurich 2

3 Structure Food security Plant breeding Outlook 3

4 Food Situation Today on our Planet Robert Zoellick, World Bank president: Food price increase 29% in 2010 Many more people in extreme poverty 4

5 Food situation 4400 years ago in Egypt Ptah-Hotep, prime minister: To maintain a stable society its basic needs must be satisfied Otherwise people will become aggressive and violent 5

6 Many serious constraints for future food security Just to stay in the fields and breed is not enough A well-fed society must be convinced Making breeding a priority is the only way to maintain a satisfied and stabilized mankind 6

7 Constraint 1. Climate has already changed Contiuous increases in CO 2 and temperature can be met by breeding Unpredictable weather defeats productive plants Crop investments are done at sowing, and Heaven is not online 7

8 Constraint 2. Arable land is too scarce Degraded and sealed land in poor and rich countries Europe or Asia: cities and roads are always built on best arable land 8

9 Constraint 3. Two resources, Water and P, become scarce very soon Irrigation capacities will decline on a relative and absolute level Major phosphorous reserves running out within decades 9

10 Constraint 4. Misuse of arable land for biofuel Big nonsense Initially even authorized by FAO 10

11 Constraint 5. Vegetarian spirit of the East evaporating fast Cereals perfectly suited for monogastrics, i.e. chicken and us but we like meat too much Feed proportion on global cereal harvest : 20% 40%

12 Conclusion Food Security Breeding progress must be achieved - with less natural resources - adverse climatic conditions - Increasing demands of consumers 12

13 Structure Food security Plant breeding Outlook 13

14 What must breeding achieve? yield increase yield consistency minimum yields in marginal areas improvement of neglected species use of genetic resources 14

15 Save the world by NEW Crops? Nothing (really) new since 2000 years! Barley Wheat Maize Sorghum Rice Potato Cassava 40y: Quality rape seed 200y: Sugar beet Sugarcane Soybean 15

16 One more constraint : Economy and consumer s preference The Great Three wheat, rice and maize provide us directly with 50% of our calories Biodiversity for Food Security? 16

17 How do we cope with this situation? In 2050 cereal production must be doubled despite all additional constraints About 80% increase in yield per unit area necessary 17

18 But even one constraint more: Economy of plant breeding Just hybrid seeds guarantee return of investment: An unneeded PLUS for maize Seeds from selfpollinators reused by farmers: A dangerous MINUS for rice and wheat 18

19 2009: Yield increase leveling off in small grain cereals? Most important genetic reason: An increased harvest index, i.e. more grain than straw, is exploited. But this was driving the Green Revolution! 19

20 Breeding and Cereal Yield Progress Crop Scientists, 2010: Annual breeding progress must be 2.5 times the current rates New breeding target: Greater light use efficiency in the period leading up to flowering R.A. (Tony) Fischer and G. Edmeades, Crop Science,

21 Theoretical potentials to increase utilization efficiency of light use efficiency Molecular biologists, 2010: 1. Light absorption: >10% 2. Conversion of absorbed light into biomass: >200% 3. Proportion of grains, Harvest Index: 25% (?) Sounds nice BUT Not without basic changes of photosynthesis, i.e. no solution for NOW Zhu et al., Ann. Rev. Plant Physiol. Plant Mol. Biol.,

22 Biotic resistance 500 million years of biological warfare will go on Regional pests and diseases use globalization Climate change affects disease occurrence Conclusion Both breeding and agro-chemistry must ensure plant protection in permanence 22

23 Breeding today Biotechnology MAS, Gene Tech Informatics Field testing Biology Pests and diseases Selection Agronomy Lab analysis 23

24 MAS: When will it be fully implemented? Breakthrough: DNA-chip technology, thousand markers cheaply analyzed in one step Physiology and biochemistry understood at the gene level? New bottleneck: Phenotyping in field and glasshouse? 24

25 Example 1 Gene Technology: Innovative solutions by adding a few genes Ingo Potrykus Zurich, ETH Provitamine A Quality rice = Golden Rice

26 A A Example 2 QTLs The ETH phenotyping platform Maize plants are grown on germination plotter in growth pouches, up to the V2 stage, and scanned in regular intervals. 26

27 Example 2 Co-locations of QTLs from seedling in Zurich with QTLs from CIMMYT field trials QTLs of seedling root traits co-located with yield related traits under stressed and unstressed field conditions: Ear number at water stress ASI, anthesis silking interval ABA, abscisic acid 27 Bangkok, 2012

28 Example 3 Unlocking genetic diversity from the gene pool of wheat by target genes By Prof. Dr. Beat Keller University Zurich Focused Identification of Germplasm Strategy (FIGS) Bangkok, 2012

29 Example 3 FIGS Target Pm gene (Pm3), Powdery mildew resistance Within 17,000 landraces, 400 lines with known resistance chosen Molecular and phenotyping approaches: Alleles now up from 7 to 14 New alleles can be used for classical and transgenic breeding Bangkok, 2012

30 Conclusions Molecular Biology Methodology now advanced Gene Technology a robust option QTLs easier implemented in MAS But gene networks too complex, Arabidopsis community sobered Gene banks on the way to be used efficiently Bangkok, 2012

31 Food security Structure Plant breeding Outlook Bnagkok

32 Our Mission Global Food Security We need many more bright AGRONOMISTS! Only they can translate progress into solution on farmers fields 32

33 Our task is enormous but success is possible ALL breeding tools will be needed Private AND public breeding must become MUCH stronger State money must go to breeding alternative crops Molecular tools a must for a fast and precise breeding IF NOT.. 33

34 From agriculture to aquaculture The ultimate ecological solution Closed algae cultivation in container systems in semi-arid regions Semi closed cycles for P and water Proof against climate changes More natural ecosystems photo via InfraNet Lab 34

35 Thank you Nanning 2012