What might agriculture and food systems look like in 2041?

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Bridget Malone
5 years ago
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1 What might agriculture and food systems look like in 2041?

8 Food and water shortages as a result of climate change and growing populations are likely to trigger mass migration and unrest

9 In the next 40 years, farmers will have to grow as much food as they have in the last 10,000 years combined. Norman Borlaug

10 Food price index

13 70% of respondents to our household survey in Cameroon said they would riot if food prices rose in the future

14 This means we will need more food But it s not just about producing more

15 Food supply Food price index (dietary calories / person / day) Food price

16 250.0 index PriceFood of Oilprice (US $/barrel) Food price $ $

Extrapolation of the current depletion rate suggests that 35% of the southern High Plains will be unable to support irrigation within the next 30 y. Scanlon et al.

22 Extrapolation of the current depletion rate suggests that 35% of the southern High Plains will be unable to support irrigation within the next 30 y. Scanlon et al. (2012) page 9320, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science. Declines of more than 40 feet between McGuire, V.L., Stanton, C.P., and Fischer, B.C. (1999). Water-level changes, 1980 to 1997, and saturated thickness, , in the high plains aquifer (Fact Sheet FS124-99). Washington, DC: US Geological Survey. Available on the World Wide Web:

23 Human and environmental health

26 Estimated Annual Antibiotic Use in the United States (Kg / year) Hollis A, Ahmed Z. N Engl J Med 2013;369:

27 Nutrition

28 What we should be eating (Harvard's Healthy Eating Plate Model) Milk & Milk Products 8% Meat & Alternatives 20% Fruits & Vegetables 49% What we are actually producing (According to 2011 FAO) Milk and Milk Products 4% Meat & Alternatives 11% Oils & Fats 11% Fruits & Vegetables 11% V Oils & Fats 3% Cereals and Starches 20% Limit Sugar 16% Cereals and Starches 47%

29 Summary of these drivers Population growth and demand Water and energy prices Human and environmental health concerns A shift in diet that will lead to more veggies and less sugars and cereals/starches.

Crickets require 12* less feed and 13* less

5 times less than chicken. http://www.cabi.

31 Crickets require 12* less feed and 13* less water than cattle Pigs produces * more GHGs per edible kg as mealworm. Quorn causes 5 times less GHGs than beef and 1.5 times less than chicken. TextPDF/2010/ pdf; see also:

34 "The look [of the worms] put me off, but in the shape of a cookie I'll eat it gets/a8816/will-3d-printers-manufacture-yourmeals /

36 Is the digital revolution coming to farming?

40 Today The future

41 Evan Fraser Canada Research Chair Department of Geography

42 One underlying cause negative externalities

for any economic activity we should identify its negative environmental impacts, devise measures to avoid those impacts, and include the costs of those

43 for any economic activity we should identify its negative environmental impacts, devise measures to avoid those impacts, and include the costs of those measures in the price of the product. It s the idea behind using carbon pricing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions [and] water pricing to conserve water

46 In the future, we will need to produce more food demand is rising.

47 So, while we will need to produce more, we can t assume that just boosting production will help keep things stable. This is because other factors influence prices too

$There is impressive potential when only the most productive gardeners are considered; As currently practiced, UA only produces a fraction of$

48 There is impressive potential when only the most productive gardeners are considered; As currently practiced, UA only produces a fraction of potential production; For urban self-provisioning to meet its potential, a major increase in the area gardened and gardening skill is required.

49 Organic yields are LESS than conventional Organic yields are GREATER than conventional V Seufert et al. Nature 000, 1-4 (2012) doi: /nature11069

50 Is the digital revolution coming to food?

51 OECD projections suggest that demand for most meat will rise by about 130% between 2013 and

53 Greenhouse gas emissions (kgco2/kg final product) ) ep w) t) ies rk re ry gs es es e v i he do dlo er Po ltu ult Eg itut uls s P cu Po en S ea (fee Fish st t a b u (m ef ex q su ( f A t f e e e B ea Be Be M

54 Greenhouse gas emissions (kgco2/kg final product) ) ep w) t) ies rk re ry gs es es e v i he do dlo er Po ltu ult Eg itut uls s P cu Po en S ea (fee Fish st t a b u (m ef ex q su ( f A t f e e e B ea Be Be M