Bioenergy and Sustainable Agriculture:

Transcription

1 Bioenergy and Sustainable Agriculture: Perennial Biomass Crops for Multiple Benefits, Decatur, Illinois Rick Cruse Iowa State University

2 "I believe the Great Creator has put ores and oil on this earth to give us a breathing spell... As we exhaust them, we must be prepared to fall back on our farms, which are God's true storehouse and can never be exhausted. For we can learn to synthesize materials for every human need from the things that grow." George Washington Carver

3 Changes in emphasis of the current agricultural production systems from food and feed towards food, feed and biofuel will require production intensification of food and feed production systems to make room for biofuel. Gunther Fischer, Sylvia Prieler, Harrij van Velthuizen,*, Sander M. Lensink, Marc Londo, Marc de Wit Biofuel production potentials in Europe: Sustainable use of cultivated land and pastures. Part I: Land productivity potentials. Biomass and Bioenergy. 3 4:

4 Global grain stocks tighten, deluge in Australia By Bruce Hextall SYDNEY Wed Jan 12, :17pm IST SYDNEY (Reuters) Australia's worst floods in decades shut down a key grains port, while the United States signaled further tightening of domestic and global supplies, heightening fears over surging food inflation. Corn and soybean futures in Chicago jumped to 30 month highs after the U.S. government reduced its estimate of corn and soybean production in the United States and Argentina, where hot, dry weather has begun to take a toll on crops. Estimates of Australia's wheat crop and exports were also cut, at a time when there are concerns with the U.S. crop due to dry weather. Last year, Russia banned exports after the worst drought in a century decimated production.

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6 Demand for Higher Quality Food 3 billion people middle class (next 20 years) 1 More meat 73% by lb 1 lb 1 United Nations Secretary General s High level Panel on Global Sustainability (2012). Resilient People, Resilient Planet: A future worth choosing. New York: United Nations.

7 Meat Consumption, Soils & Water? 5 oz meat/day/capita US 1 Assume 3 billion eat 4 oz/day 750,000,000 lb meat/day??? 1,300 lb beef animals 1,000,000 animals/day 1 USDA/Economic Research Service,

8 Supply/Productivity Limitations Land conversion 7% Ag land conversion by FAO World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030. FAO, Rome.

9 Brazil Immense Untapped Capacity ~ 400,000,000 Ha yet to be developed ~ 15% lost to infrastructure for development ~ 340,000,000 Ha expansion potential

10 The Rest of the Story 7% world ag land converted by ~ 342,000,000 Ha Brazil expansion ~ 340,000,000 Ha 1 FAO World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030. FAO, Rome.

11 Supply/Productivity Limitations 25% Agricultural land seriously degraded FAO State of the world s land and water resources for food and agriculture. Summary Report. FAO. Rome

12 Different days, different locations, 2014

13 IOWA USA 2013

14 25% of Iowa s row crop hectares eroded at times the soil renewal rate in Cox, Craig, Andrew Hug, and Nils Bruzelius Losing Ground. Environmental Working Group. Available at:

15 Does soil erosion affect soil productivity? Kazemi, Masoud, L.C. Dumenil, and T.E. Fenton Effects of accelerated erosion on corn yields of loess derived and till derived soils in Iowa. Final report for Soil Conservation Service, Agreement No , Des Moines, IA.

16 SPEED????

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18 Irrigation ~ 40% of world food comes from 18% of world s cropland 1 India 3/5 of grain harvest China 4/5 of grain harvest 1 W Danielle Nierenberg, Linda Starke and Erik Assadourian State of the World World Watch Institute.

19 Water Scarcity Index = Human Fresh Water Consumption Renewable Fresh Water Oki, Taikan and Shinjiro Kanae Global hydrological cycles and world water resources. Science. 313:

20 Oki, Taikan and Shinjiro Kanae Global hydrological cycles and world water resources. Science. 313: Published by AAAS

21 High Plains Aquifer Depletion

22 Climate change & food security? Climate Change From Wheat production reduced 5.5% Maize production reduced 3.8 % 1 David B. Lobell, Wolfram Schlenker, and Justin Costa Roberts Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since Published online 5 May 2011 [DOI: /science

23 Terrain Suitability Index Soil and Terrain Suitability Index (SI) for a Range of Rain-Fed Crops and Pasture Types for the Current Climate Fischer, et al., 2002: Global agro-ecological assessment for agriculture in the 21st century: methodology and results. Research Report RR ISBN , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 119 pp. [Online at Cited in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II, Ch. 5, p. 280.

24 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

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26 Mean surface temperature in Europe , annual and by season 1. 1 European Environment Agency Mean surface temperatures in Europe , annual and by season. and maps/figures/mean surface temperature in europe

27 12 experimental watersheds, 0.5 to 3.5 ha each, Neal Smith National Wildlife Refuge, Prairie City, IA Four treatments: 100% crop (no till) 10% buffer, toe slope 10% buffer, contour strips 20% buffer, contour strips Photo: Matt Liebman

28 Source: Matt Liebman

29 Sediment Loss from Watershed 100% crops 10% perennial cover Source: Matt Liebman, ISU Source: Matt Helmann, ISU

30 6/12/2008 6/26/2008 6/12/2008 6/26/2008 6/8/2008 6/8/2008 6/6/2008 6/6/2008 4/25/2008 5/25/2008 5/30/2008 6/3/2008 6/5/2008 4/18/2008 4/17/2008 4/10/ % Row-crop 10% Perennial Cover at Toe Slope 10% Perennial Cover in Contour Strips 20% Perennial Cover in Contour Strips 4/25/2008 5/25/2008 5/30/2008 6/3/2008 6/5/2008 4/18/2008 Date 4/17/2008 4/10/2008 Cumulative sediment export (lb acre -1 ) Cumulative surface runoff (in acre -1 ) % Row-crop 10% Perennial Cover at Toe Slope 10% Perennial Cover in Contour Strips 20% Perennial Cover in Contour Strips

31 Bioenergy Future Scenarios Must Consider Demand for energy increasing Demand for food and water increasing Biofuels must compliment food/feed production in a world with Greater climate variability Soil and water degradation problems Political environment less stable than climate

32 Four Scenarios Centralized Facility Distributed Facilities Single Plant Species Multiple Species Single Plant Species Multiple Species Cruse, R.M., Carl Herndl, Elena Polush and Mack Shelly An assessment of cellulosic ethanol industry sustainability based on industry configurations. J. Soil and Water Cons. 67:67 74

33 Functionality Metric Will lead to high and stable levels of feedstock production System Configuration Centralized Processing Distributed Processing Single sp (corn) Multiple Single Sp. sp. Multiple Sp. (corn) Development of required and producer acceptable feedstock conversion technology is likely. Transportation requirements can be met and will be acceptable to producers and the industry. Labor needs for feedstock harvest and processing can be met. Required feedstock storage is reasonable, manageable and acceptable. A favorable and acceptable energy balance is likely. A favorable and acceptable carbon balance is likely. Farm net income will benefit. Rural development will be affected favorably. Soil erosion will be affected favorably. Soil carbon sequestration will be affected favorably. Wildlife habitat will be affected favorably. Water quality will be affected favorably.

34 Centralized Distributed Function Single Sp. Multiple Sp. Single Sp. Multiple Sp. Feedstock Prod Feedstock Conversn Transportation Labor Availability Feedstock Storage Energy Balance Carbon Balance Farm Income Rural Development C Sequestration Wildlife Habitat Soil Erosion Water Quality a b a b

35 Centralized Distributed Function Single Sp. Multiple Sp. Single Sp. Multiple Sp. Feedstock Prod Feedstock Conversn Transportation Labor Availability a a b b Feedstock Storage Energy Balance Carbon Balance Farm Income Rural Development C Sequestration Wildlife Habitat Soil Erosion Water Quality a ab bc c

36 Centralized Distributed Function Single Sp. Multiple Sp. Single Sp. Multiple Sp. Feedstock Prod Feedstock Conversn Transportation Labor Availability Feedstock Storage Energy Balance Carbon Balance Farm Income Rural Development C Sequestration Wildlife Habitat Soil Erosion Water Quality a b c a b c

37 Centralized Distributed Function Single Sp. Multiple Sp. Single Sp. Multiple Sp. Feedstock Prod Feedstock Conversn Transportation Labor Availability Feedstock Storage Energy Balance Carbon Balance Farm Income Rural Development C Sequestration Wildlife Habitat Soil Erosion Water Quality ab a c b c d

38 Centralized Distributed Function Single Sp. Multiple Sp. Single Sp. Multiple Sp. Feedstock Prod Feedstock Conversn Transportation Labor Availability Feedstock Storage Energy Balance Carbon Balance Farm Income Rural Development C Sequestration a b a b Wildlife Habitat Soil Erosion Water Quality

39 Centralized Distributed Function Single Sp. Multiple Sp. Single Sp. Multiple Sp. Feedstock Prod Feedstock Conversn Transportation Labor Availability Feedstock Storage Energy Balance Carbon Balance Farm Income Rural Development C Sequestration Wildlife Habitat a b a b Soil Erosion a b c a b c Water Quality a b c a b c

40 Centralized Distributed Function Single Sp. Multiple Sp. Single Sp. Multiple Sp. Feedstock Prod a b a b Feedstock Conversn Transportation Labor Availability a a b b Feedstock Storage a ab bc c Energy Balance Carbon Balance Farm Income a b c a b c Rural Development ab a c b c d C Sequestration a b a b Wildlife Habitat a b a b Soil Erosion a b c a b c Water Quality a b c a b c

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42 Emerging Story 100% row crop Degrades soil in most areas of rainfed agriculture Degrades water quality Reduces production potential Perennials must be part of the landscape if Soil erosion is to be limited Water quality if to be maintained Conversion technology & perennial opportunities are linked

43 Conclusions There are none! Maybe concluding thoughts. Marginal rain fed lands could be a win win Irrigated crops (not only regions) should morally & ethically be avoided Added value associations with food/feed crops Stay tuned this issue is going to grow Climate variation Land and water degradation Energy demand/supply

44 "I believe the Great Creator has put ores and oil on this earth to give us a breathing spell... As we exhaust them, we must be prepared to fall back on our farms, which are God's true storehouse and can never be exhausted. For we can learn to synthesize materials for every human need from the things that grow." George Washington Carver