Drought Early Warning System for the Tribes of the Missouri Basin

Transcription

1 Drought Early Warning System for the Tribes of the Missouri Basin Great Plains Tribal Water Alliance: Water Conference 2016 Doug Kluck, Regional Climate Services Director Kansas City, MO National Center for Environmental Information

2 Public Law (The NIDIS Act 2006, 2014) Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to managing drought risks and impacts better informed and more timely drought-related decisions leading to reduced impacts and costs

3 Drought Early Warning? Early warning: provision of timely and effective information, through identified institutions, that allows individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response-international Strategy for Disaster Reduction Near Salina, KS - July 2013

4 Core Framework Monitoring and Prediction Drought Monitor Drought Impact Reporter Interdisciplinary Research and Applications U.S Drought Portal (drought.gov) Education and Public Awareness Engaging the Preparedness Community

5 NIDIS Tribal Focus

6 Missouri River Basin Drought Early Warning Work Plan Feb 2014 Kickoff Meeting Task 1 Drought Early Warning and Risk Management: The MRB States Task 2 - Drought Early Warning and Risk Management: The MRB Tribes Task 3 Across Basin Activities

7 MRB Kickoff Meeting Findings 1. Improving understanding of impacts and vulnerability to drought; 2. Partnering with states and tribes to create new or improved drought plans; 3. Continuing to support and enhance regional monthly drought and flood webinars, quarterly and special topic weather and climate summaries and outlooks and other early warning outreach; 4. Assessing approaches for improved forecasts and long-term monitoring; 5. Initiating a series of regional, sectoral or sub-basin meetings to understand impacts and ways to inform drought risk management.

8 TASK 1 DROUGHT EARLY WARNING AND RISK MANAGEMENT: THE MRB STATES DROUGHT SIMULATIONS WITH VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES (KANSAS) SOUTH DAKOTA DROUGHT PLAN REVIEW MONTANA DEMONSTRATION PROJECT (NDRP) IDENTIFY STATES IN THE MRB THAT HAVE INCORPORATED DROUGHT INTO THEIR MULTI-HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN (AND THOSE THAT HAVEN T) NEBRASKAEMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY WYOMING STATE DROUGHT SUMMARY (UNDERWAY)

9 TASK 2 DROUGHT EARLY WARNING AND RISK MANAGEMENT: THE MRB TRIBES WIND RIVER INDIAN RESERVATION (CRYSTAL) BUILD CAPACITY FOR PRODUCTION OF TRIBAL DROUGHT SUMMARIES AT HASKELL UNIVERSITY (CRYSTAL) 4 KANSAS TRIBES WATER VULNERABILITY AND PLANNING DROUGHT/CLIMATE MITIGATION PLAN TRIBES OF SOUTH DAKOTA DROUGHT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT(S) (W/GPTWA & ASSOCIATED TRIBES) DROUGHT/CLIMATE MITIGATION PLAN

10 Tribal Engagements (NIDIS) Missouri Basin Tribal Meeting Sep Tribes represented Build awareness of climate and drought tools Tribal sharing opportunity for both drought and climate challenges Tribal college participation

11 KS Tribes: BIA Proposal Assess tribally specific early warning systems for drought drought summaries Drought and climate monitoring education Leverage agencies for resources on planning and building resilience Approaches to conduct vulnerability assessments of cultural and water resources

12 TASK 3 ACROSS BASIN ACTIVITIES MIDWEST/GREAT PLAINS EARLY WARNING WEBINARS (MONTHLY) REGIONAL MONITORING INCREASE SOIL AND SNOW USDA NORTHERN PLAINS CLIMATE HUB SYNERGIES WITH AGRICULTURE US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS: WORKING WITH USACE OUTLOOKS AND MONITORING INTERACTION SPRING CALLS/MEETING/BRIEFINGS IDENTIFY FEDERAL FUNDING STREAMS AND WAYS TO LEVERAGE THEM FOR SUPPORTING DROUGHT PLANNING BIA, BOR, USACE, NOAA, EPA, FEMA, HUD

13 Building Awareness: Regional Monthly Climate & Drought Webinars Since November 2011 Response to climate extremes Popular w/states, feds, tribes, private interests Presenters: regional and state climate experts Past presentations: Sign Up:

14 Invitation: Regional Climate List Write to me and I will add you: Doug.kluck@noaa.gov Regional climate information NOAA climate summaries and outlooks Webinar notification Grant opportunities

15 Quarterly Regional Climate Summary & Outlook Midwest Pacific Region Eastern Region Western Region Alaska Region Rio Grande/Bravo Basin Gulf of Maine Region Midwest Region Caribbean Climate Missouri Basin Great Lakes

16 El Nino What are the potential impacts?

17 Potential Interactions with the Great Plains Tribal Water Alliance Develop a climate vulnerability assessment and an ongoing climate summary/outlook with the four tribes (Crystal). The data produced would inform "adaptation" planning efforts and realtime decision making. Individual tribal adaptation plans may include items like: Tribal Fire Management Plan Noxious/Invasive Weed Plan Agricultural Resource Management Plan NEPA Analysis Drought Plans (the vulnerability assessment would make the GPTWA more competitive for the BOR drought response program grant in FY17)

18 Working Workshops Developed by Cheryl Chapman and others who came up w/the approach Series of working workshops to create climate vulnerability assessment Building capacity of tribal officials and potentially others (for example tribal college personnel) Create process for ongoing delivery of climate summaries/outlook for each tribe (Crystal)

19 Potential Collaborators Tribal Climate Change Coordinators (DOI) NOAA SD State Climate Office SDSU Extension High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC) National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) USGS, EPA, USDA, USACE, BOR, FEMA, BIA

20 Capacity Building (Category 9) Bureau of Indian Affairs Trust Services 2016 Tribal Climate Resilience (May 23 rd ) Climate Change Adaptation Planning (Categories 1-3) Category 1. Trainings and Workshops Category 2. Climate Adaptation Planning Category 3. Travel Support Climate Ocean and Coastal Management Planning (Categories 4-5) Category 4. Ocean and Coastal Management Planning Category 5. Travel Support - Ocean & Coastal Youth Engagement (Categories 6-8) Category 6. Youth Management Internships Category 7. Youth Research Internships Category 8. Youth Engagement

21 Thank You Lower Brule Community College, Summer

22 Reference Links NOAA Climate Information Climate.gov Drought Information Drought.gov EPA Climate Ready Water Utilities (CRWU) U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit Climate Datasets Weather.gov For your local 7 day forecasts by the hour State Climatologist: CoCoRaHS: to sign up and add your precip/snow/drought info.

23 DEWS Example: Telling the Story Describing antecedent conditions Current conditions Value Added Outlooks (beyond the official forecast) Impacts (past, current, future)

24 State of the Climate Regionally Precipitation Temperatures

25 Current Soil Moisture

26 Snowpack

27 Precipitation Next Five Days (April th )

28 Week Two Outlook (April 20-26) Probabilities Temperature Precipitation

29 April Outlook Temperature Precipitation

30 April - June Outlook Temperatures Precipitation

31 Summer Outlook (June-August) Temperatures Precipitation

32 Mar-May Springtime Precip Anomalies During Strong El Nino Events

33 Drought Early Warning? May

34 NDRP Montana Demonstration Project NIDIS, the National Drought Mitigation Center, Environmental Protection Agency and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation worked with groups in the Missouri Headwaters.

35 National Drought Resilience Partnership White House issues Action Plan for drought resilience (March 22 nd, 2016) Enhancing Community Preparedness for Drought Federal Collaboration: The National Drought Resilience Partnership Supporting State and Local Drought Strategies Preparedness, Mitigation, and Risk Management: supporting regional state, local, and tribal preparedness and planning, Actionable, Science-Based Information and Tools: converting data into knowledge for timely and informed decision-making, Sustainable Water Infrastructure: managing resources for a more secure water future Managing Lands & Waters: resilient farms, ranches, and forests that support healthy watersheds and ecosystems; and Programs, Incentives, Outreach, and Education: 21st century approaches to drought preparedness and water security Engaging with Key Stakeholders