WHS-11g Wheat Outlook July 14, 2011 Gary Vocke Olga Liefert Higher Supplies Are More Than Offset by Higher Usage, Lowering Stocks Contents

Transcription

1 WHS-11g July 14, 2011 Wheat Outlook Gary Vocke Olga Liefert Higher Supplies Are More Than Offset by Higher Usage, Lowering Stocks Contents Domestic Outlook Intl. Outlook Contacts & Links Tables Supply & Use by Year Supply & Use by Class Quarterly Supply & Use Monthly Food Use National Avg. Prices Prices Received by Farmers by Class Cash Grain Bids Exports & Imports Census & Exports Web Sites WASDE Grain Circular Wheat Briefing Room The next release is August 15, Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are raised 90 million bushels as higher carryin and production more than offset reductions in imports and higher use. Beginning stocks are raised 52 million bushels, mostly reflecting higher estimated carryout for 2010/11 as reported in the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Production for 2011/12 is forecast at 2,106 million bushels, up 48 million from last month as higher winter wheat production and higher forecast yields for durum and other spring wheat more than offset lower area as estimated in the June 30 Acreage report. Partly offsetting is a 10-million-bushel reduction in projected imports with lower expected supplies in Canada. U.S. wheat usage for 2011/12 is raised with a shift in expected seed usage from 2010/11 and higher expected exports compared with last month. Seed use for 2011/12 is raised 7 million bushels as late planting in the Northern Plains shifted seed usage for the 2011 crop into the 2011/12 marketing year, which began June 1. Exports are raised 100 million bushels with larger domestic supplies and reduced competition expected from Canada. Ending stocks are projected 17 million bushels lower at 670 million. While ending stocks remain adequate for most classes of wheat, durum stocks are projected to be especially tight with sharply lower area and production this year. The 2011/12 seasonaverage farm price for all wheat is lowered 40 cents on each end of the projected range to $6.60 to $8.00 per bushel, mostly reflecting the sharp drop in projected corn prices this month. U.S. and Russian export prospects for 2011/12 are boosted due to increased supplies and reduced competition. Global wheat production for 2011/12 is projected to decline this month 1.9 million tons, following a 3.2-million-ton projected drop in foreign production that more than offsets a 1.3-million-ton increase in U.S. wheat output. Canadian wheat production is cut by 3.5 million tons to 21.5 million this month, reflecting a 14-percent

2 reduction in seeded area. Wheat production in Ukraine is projected down 1.0 million tons this month to 18.0 million. The reductions are partly offset by increased wheat production in Turkey and the EU-27. Foreign wheat use is projected up 2.8 million tons to million. Projected world ending stocks are down 2.1 million tons this month to million. 2

3 Domestic Situation and Outlook Ending Stocks for 2011/12 Projected To Decrease From 2010/11 Projected ending stocks for 2011/12, at 670 million bushels, are down 191 million bushels from 2010/11 as supplies decrease more than use. Total wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected down 217 million bushels because of both smaller carryin stocks and production from 2010/11. Total projected uses are down 26 million bushels from 2010/11. Total production is projected at 2,106 million bushels, down 102 million bushels from 2010/11. Winter Wheat Production Estimates by Class Hard red winter (HRW) production is forecast to be 791 million bushels, up 14 million bushels from June, but down 227 million bushels from a year ago. The higher planted area for the 2011 crop has been more than offset by the higher abandonment rates and lower yields due to the severe drought on the central and southern plains. Forecast planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2011 from 2010 are 29.1 million acres, up 0.5 million acres; 21.5 million acres, down 2.5 million acres; and 36.7 bushels per acre, down 5.7 bushels per acre, respectively. USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) July 12 Crop Production reported that drought conditions in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas throughout the growing season accelerated crop development. As of July 3, harvest progress was significantly ahead of normal and nearing completion in these States. Soft red winter (SRW) production is forecast at 458 million bushels, up 24 million bushels from June and up 220 million bushels from last year. SRW production is forecast higher for 2011 with higher planted and harvested areas and higher yield. The 2011 crop area has recovered from 2010, when a rain-delayed row-crop harvest and low prices reduced SRW seedings in the fall of Forecast planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2011 from 2010 are 8.3 million acres, up 3.0 million acres; 7.3 million acres, up 2.9 million acres; and 62.9 bushels per acre, up 8.6 bushels per acre, respectively. Crop Production reported that while excellent growing conditions during the month in many of the SRW areas led to significant yield increases from the June forecast, wet conditions have negatively impacted the crop in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Record high yields are expected in Arkansas, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, and Tennessee. White winter wheat production for 2011 is forecast to total 243 million bushels, up 3 million bushels from June and up 14 million bushels from a year ago. Of the white production total, 12 million bushels are hard white (HW) and 231 million bushels are soft white (SW). The 2010 production of HW and SW were 13 million bushels and 216 million bushels, respectively. The 2011 HW and SW planted and harvested areas are 0.34 million acres and 0.28 million acres; and 3.33 million acres and 3.21 million acres, respectively. The 3

4 previous year, the HW and SW planted and harvested were 0.33 million acres and 0.29 million acres; and 3.18 million acres and 3.04 million acres, respectively. HW 2011 yield is 41.3 bushels per acre compared to 46.7 bushels in SW 2011 yield is 72.0 bushels per acre compared to 70.9 bushels in Spring Wheat Production Estimates by Class Hard red spring (HRS) production is forecast at 504 million bushels, down 66 million bushels from HRS production is forecast down with lower planted and harvested areas and lower yield. Excessive moisture and cool temperatures on the Northern Plains resulted in late seeding and prevented plantings. Forecast planted area, harvested area, yield, and year-to-year changes for 2011, respectively, are 12.9 million acres, down 0.1 million acres; 12.5 million acres, down 0.1 million acres; and 40.4 bushels per acre, down 4.7 bushels per acre. Crop Production reported that flooding and prolonged wet weather has slowed crop development in most States. By July 3, heading in North Dakota and Montana had not yet begun, and was 48 and 32 percentage points behind the 5-year average, respectively. As a result of the wet conditions that delayed planting, forecasted yields are down from last year in all States except South Dakota. White spring production is forecast to total 46 million bushels unchanged from a year ago. Of the white spring production total, 9 million bushels are hard white spring (HWS) and 37 million bushels are soft white spring (SWW). The HWS 2011 planted and harvested areas are 131,000 acres and 127,000 acres, respectively. The previous year, the HWS harvested and planted areas are 130,000 acres and 127,000 acres, respectively. HWS 2011 yield is 70.6 bushels per acre compared to 72.9 bushels in The SWS 2011 planted and harvested areas are 641,000 acres and 624,000 acres, respectively. The previous year, the SWS harvested and planted areas were 599,000 acres and 587,000 acres, respectively. SWS 2011 yield is 59.8 bushels per acre compared to 62.6 bushels in Durum wheat production is forecast to total 64 million bushels, down 43 million bushels from a year ago. Durum production is forecast down with lower planted and harvested areas and lower yield. Excessive moisture and cool temperatures on the Northern Plains resulted in late seeding and prevented plantings which have reduced planted area to the lowest since Forecast planted area, harvested area, yield, and year-to-year changes for 2011, respectively, are 1.7 million acres, down 87 acres; 1.6 million acres, down 88 acres; and 38.7 bushels per acre, down 3.7 bushels per acre. Crop Production reported that yield forecasts are down from last year in all major producing States. Due to flooding and excessively wet conditions, crop development in Montana and North Dakota, the two largest producing States, are significantly behind normal Spring Wheat Conditions Not as Good as Last Year NASS July 11 Crop Progress reported that as of July 10, 73 percent of the 2011 spring wheat was rated good to excellent and only 4 percent was rated poor to very 4

5 poor. A year ago at this time, 83 percent of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent and 3 percent was rated poor to very poor. Hard and Soft White Wheat Area and Production Forecasts All white wheat production for 2011 is 289 million bushels, up 14 million bushels from All white wheat planted and harvested areas for 2011, at 4.4 million acres and 4.2 million acres, respectively, are both up from All white wheat yield for 2011 is 68.2 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels from The all soft white planted area for 2011, at 4.0 million acres, down 0.2 million acres from The all hard white wheat planted area is 474,000 acres, up from 46 acres in The all soft white harvested area for 2011, at 3.8 million acres, is up 0.2 million acres from The all hard white wheat harvested area is 407,000 acres, down from 416,000 acres in The all soft white wheat yield for 2011 is 70.0 bushels per acre, up 0.37 bushels from The all hard white wheat yield for 2011 is 50.5 bushels per acre, down 4.2 bushels from /12 Year-to-Year By-Class Comparisons Projected supplies of HRW, HRS, and durum are down year to year for 2011/12, mostly because of lower production. SRW and white wheat supplies are up from 2010/11, especially SRW because of the recovery of production from the previous year. Projected 2011/12 carryin stocks were nearly unchanged for HRW, white, and durum, but sharply lower for HRS and SRW. Domestic use is up year to year for HRW, SRW, and white, but down for the other two classes. Projected exports are lower for all classes except SRW. Projected ending stocks for 2011/12 are down year to year for HRW, HRS, and durum, but up for SRW and white. The year-to-year percentage decrease in allwheat ending stocks is 22 percent. HRW and durum projected ending stocks are down the most, 48 percent and 60 percent, respectively, while white ending stocks are up the most, 20 percent. The projected ending stocks of HRS are down by 7 percent, while SRW stocks are up by 8 percent. Projected 2011/12 Supplies Up This Month The 2011/12 outlook for U.S. wheat supplies is raised from June. Beginning stocks for 2011/12, at 861 million bushels, are up 52 million bushels from June. Projected imports, at 100 million bushels, are down 10 million bushels from June because of lower-than-expected Canadian production, but unchanged year to year. Production is projected at 2,106 million bushels, up 48 million bushels from June. Projected 2011/12 Utilization Total projected U.S. wheat use for 2011/12, at 2,397 million bushels, is up 107 million bushels from June. Projected use is lower than 2010/11 as lower projected exports more than offset higher expected domestic use. Seed use is raised from June as late planting in the Northern Plains shifted seed usage for the 2011 crop into 5

6 2011/12. Food use is projected at 945 million bushels, unchanged from June, but up 15 million from the previous marketing year, reflecting an expected decrease in average flour extraction rate from the extraordinarily high rates during the past two years and increasing consumption with a growing population. Feed and residual use is projected at 220 million bushels, unchanged from June, but up from the 135 million bushels projected for 2010/11 as high corn prices and a rebound in SRW production is expected to encourage more summer quarter wheat feeding. Exports are projected at 1,150 million bushels, up from June, but down 136 million bushels from 2010/11. Exports are up from June because of larger domestic supplies and reduced competition from Canada. Exports are down year to year because (1) drought has reduced exportable supplies of HRW, (2) the availability of higherthan-normal protein in this year s HRW has increased domestic milling demand with tighter supplies of HRS, and (3) the expected recovery of Black Sea production from the severe drought of a year ago. Thus, ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 670 million bushels, down 17 million bushels from June and down 191 million bushels from 2010/ /12 Price Range Is Lowered The 2011/12 season-average farm price range is projected at $6.60 to $8.00 per bushel, down 40 cents on both ends of the range from June with the drop in corn prices from a month ago. This compares with $5.70 for the previous year and the record high of $6.78 for 2008/ /11 Supplies Are Unchanged This Month Total projected supplies for 2010/11, at 3,284 million bushels, are unchanged from June. Supplies for 2010/11 are 291 million bushels above 2009/10. Year to year, sharply higher beginning stocks more than offset slightly lower production and projected imports. Projected supplies of all wheat classes except SRW are up year to year for 2010/11. SRW supplies are down, mostly because of a large year-to-year production drop with both lower area and yields. The hard wheats, HRW and HRS, have the largest year-to-year increases in 2010/11 supplies with their larger carryin stocks and higher production. Exports for 2010/11 Are Lowered Projected total exports for 2010/11 are 1,286 million bushels, down from June based on pace to date. The largest decreases are 4 million bushels less of HRS exports and 3 million bushels less SRW from June. White and durum are each down 1 million bushels and HRW exports are unchanged. Total wheat exports for 2010/11 are 405 million bushels above 2009/10 exports and 23 million bushels above 2007/08 when exports hit a 15-year high with the global wheat shortage that led to record wheat prices in

7 Ending Stocks Are Higher Than Expected for 2010/11 Projected total U.S. ending stocks for 2010/11 are 861 million bushels, up 52 million bushels from June base on the June 30 Grain Stocks report. The 2010/11 ending stocks are down 115 million bushels from 2009/10. Projected 2010/11 ending stocks are 555 million bushels above the recent low of 306 million bushels in 2007/08. All wheat ending stocks are down 12 percent from 2009/10. SRW ending stocks are down the most from 2009/10, 30 percent. HRS ending stocks are down 21 percent. White and durum ending stocks are only down 6 percent and 1 percent, respectively. HRW ending stocks are nearly unchanged from the previous year. 2010/11 Price Is Unchanged The projected season-average price received by producers is $5.70 per bushel, unchanged from June. The season-average price for 2009/10 was $4.87 per bushel. The 2010/11 price is well below the 2008/09 record of $6.78 per bushel. USDA Wheat Baseline, Each year, USDA updates its 10-year projections of supply and utilization for major field crops grown in the United States, including wheat. A detailed discussion summarizing the historical forces determining U.S. wheat supply and utilization, and the analysis underlying the wheat projections for , is available at 7

8 International Situation and Outlook Canada Dominates Decline in World Wheat Production This Month Global wheat production in 2011/12 is projected down 1.9 million tons this month to million. Foreign production is reduced by 3.2 million to million, while the forecast for U.S. winter wheat production is up 1.3 million tons. Unfavorable weather conditions have reduced wheat production prospects in two of the major exporting countries, Canada and Ukraine, and also in Mexico and Tajikistan. These reductions are partly offset by increased wheat production in Turkey and the EU-27. Wheat production prospects for 2011/12 in Canada are down sharply this month by 3.5 million tons to 21.5 million, reflecting a 14-percent reduction in area of 1.3 million hectares from 9.3 to 8.0 million hectares. As of a month ago, Canadian farmers had planted about 80 percent of their intended wheat area, but farmers in southeastern Saskatchewan and neighboring southwestern Manitoba, where percentages of unseeded area were the highest, reported virtually no progress in the month of June. Persistent rains that have disrupted field work for many weeks ended around June 20, the crop insurance cut-off day. Based on provincial Saskatchewan reports that give planting progress by crop production regions, as of June 20, wheat planting in Saskatchewan appears to have reached only 3.4 million hectares. This is about 1.6 million lower than June preliminary estimates and almost 2 million lower than March initial planting intentions. In the southeastern corner of the province, almost 66 percent of land appears to have been left unseeded. Corresponding adjustments have been made for the neighboring southwestern Manitoba, where weather conditions have been very similar. Durum planting in these regions, which grow nearly half of Canadian durum, has been hit hard, leaving significant intended durum area unseeded. The problem of low durum planting extends across both U.S. and Canadian durum areas. The evidence supporting dramatic Canadian area reductions does not come from planting progress reports alone. Satellite imagery, aerial photographs, and local news reports all provide strong supporting evidence for a substantial drop in planted area. Ukrainian 2011/12 wheat production is projected down 1.0 million tons this month to 18 million. Several factors have contributed to the lower wheat yield prospects in Ukraine. Cool weather in April delayed crop development, which, combined with dry spring weather, lowered tillering in the affected areas and hurt root development in wheat plants. Powerful rains in the second part of June and beginning of July on the one hand relieved the accumulated moisture deficit, but on the other hand were too strong, supplying around 200 percent of normal precipitation in the eastern part of the country. The moisture could result in harvest delays, some additional lodging, and is expected to raise the share of feed-quality wheat. Wheat output for 2011/12 is projected 0.4 million tons lower at 3.8 million in Mexico, following an official downward revision to harvested area. In Tajikistan, production is down 0.1 million tons to 0.4 million, because of the dry and hot weather pattern in the main wheat producing region of the country. Yields are lowered similar to those in the low-yield years of In Turkey, where the wheat harvest is underway, wheat output for 2011/12 is projected up 1.1 million tons to 18.5 million. Turkey is one of the world s few 8

9 other major durum producers and durum is grown in the southeastern part of the country where rainfall has not been excessive this year. Crop development was delayed this year, and abundant rains in May and the first part of June were very beneficial for wheat yields. This is partly because the rains occurred during the later-than-normal reproductive stage of the crop and did not negatively affect harvesting. The flip side of abundant to excessive soil moisture is that wheat quality is expected to be lower than normal. EU-27 wheat production is expected to reach million tons in 2011/12, up 0.6 million this month. Timely abundant moisture in Spain, and good weather conditions, increased use of fertilizer, and better irrigation in Romania, warranted this month s increase in yield prospects in those countries, for a total increase in wheat production of 1.0 million tons. This increase more than offsets yield reductions in the U.K. and Hungary, where current projected yields better reflect and are more consistent with the impact of dry weather. Reduced Supplies and Higher Use Trim Ending Stocks Foreign 2011/12 beginning stocks are forecast up 1.5 million tons to million, partly offsetting a 3.2-million-ton reduction in foreign wheat production. All changes in beginning stocks, except for Russia and Turkmenistan, reflect trade revisions, both imports and exports, for 2010/11. The largest among the changes are reductions in beginning stocks in Australia and Canada, by 0.5 million tons each, based on higher 2010/11 wheat exports, and a 0.3-million-ton increase in Iraq s beginning stocks, as increased imports were necessary to maintain stable wheat consumption in the country with a lower 2011/12 wheat harvest. Russia s beginning stocks are up 0.8 million tons to 11.5 million, following a revision for Russia s feed and residual use series, and lower 2010/11 wheat imports. Wheat feed use in Russia is revised up 0.5 million tons in 2009/10, down 1.5 million tons in 2010/11, and up 0.5 million tons in 2011/12. Beginning stocks in Turkmenistan are up 0.3 million tons based on a revision in the food, seed, and industrial use series going back 4 years. Smaller trade-induced changes for beginning stocks have been made for a number of countries. Foreign wheat use is projected up 2.8 million tons to million. Increased consumption is projected for Turkey, up 0.6 million tons. Higher expected production of lower quality wheat and tight supplies of corn are expected to boost wheat feeding. For the EU-27, wheat feeding is up 1.5 million tons this month, reflecting higher supplies-both production and imports-and a small increase in projected poultry production. Wheat consumption is also projected higher for Russia, up 0.5 million tons for feeding and 0.2 million tons for food use, as a result of the already mentioned consumption revision. Wheat feeding in Australia is down 0.5 million tons for both 2010/11 and 2011/12, as the country s 2010/11 exports are up this month. Other changes in wheat consumption are largely offsetting, and are driven by trade revisions. World wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected down 2.1 million tons this month to million, while foreign stocks are down 1.6 million. The largest decline in ending stocks is projected for Russia, down 1.9 million tons to 11.1 million, because of sharply increased export expectations. Reduced ending stocks are projected for Canada, down 1.4 million tons to 4.8 million, absorbing part of 9

10 Canada s wheat production cut. Partly offsetting are upward revisions in wheat ending stocks in Sri Lanka (up 0.4 million tons), Iraq and Algeria (up 0.3 million tons each), Egypt, Morocco, and Yemen (up 0.2 million tons each), as well as a number of smaller upward and downward revisions, based on changes in the countries beginning stocks and imports in 2011/12. U.S. Export Prospects Up This Month Due to Increased Supplies and Reduced Competition Global trade in 2011/12 (July-June trade year) is projected to reach million tons, up 2.2 million this month with an increase of 1.0 million tons in import prospects for the EU-27, a 0.5- million-ton increase for Egypt, and a 0.4-million-ton increase for Mexico. Higher projected industrial use for ethanol production and increased feeding with higher poultry numbers merit larger EU-27 wheat imports. In Egypt, wheat imports are expected to increase, compensating for lower domestic crop procurement. The growth of Mexican wheat imports matches a cutback in its wheat production. Other small adjustments in imports for various other countries are largely offsetting. Important shifts in expected market share among wheat exporters are projected this month. Projected 2011/12 wheat exports by Canada are cut 2.5 million tons this month, to 16.0 million due to reduced production. Also, lower production prospects in Ukraine resulted in a 1.0 million-ton cut in forecast exports, to 7.5 million. Export expectations for Mexico were also trimmed slightly. These export reductions and the increase in global imports support higher export forecasts for a number of exporters this month. In Russia, wheat exports are up 2.0 million tons to 12.0 million, as larger wheat supplies support higher exports. The Russian government has not applied any restrictions to this year s exports so far. Moreover, despite the fact that Russian wheat exports seem to have resumed at a strong pace (to Egypt, Tunisia, and Jordan), the government is not currently expected to hinder exports activities, as domestic prices remain very low. In Turkey, wheat exports are projected up 0.8 million tons to 4.0 million, reflecting higher exportable supplies and the fact that Turkey is one of the world s few producers of durum wheat. Durum is becoming a precious commodity this year, given exceptionally low supplies in the U.S., Canada, and France. Exports are also projected at 0.4 million tons for Turkmenistan for 2011/12 and at 0.2 million tons for 2010/11 the first exports on record for this country. The country s president issued a decree allowing the responsible government agency to export these amounts of wheat, citing lower domestic consumption. Exports also inched up for Croatia and Egypt. Wheat production prospects for the U.S. are up 1.3 million tons this month, while wheat supplies are up even more 2.4 million tons due to increased beginning stocks. Strong early sales and reduced competition, especially from Canada, boost prospects for U.S. wheat exports in 2011/12. The July-June U.S. export projection is increased 2.5 million tons this month to 31.5 million, with the June-May local marketing year up 100 million bushels to 1.15 billion. According to US Export Sales, as of June 30, outstanding sales of U.S. wheat were up 25 percent compared to a year ago, when the country exported 35.8 million tons of wheat, with the increases spread across many importing countries. 10

11 World 2010/11 Trade Is Up World wheat trade in 2010/11 was adjusted up 1.6 million tons to reflect reported trade data, licenses, and sales. Imports were increased in Algeria (high pace of French exports), Iraq, South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Yemen (high pace of Australian exports), as well as in Morocco, Sri Lanka, Turkey (up 0.2 million tons each), Azerbaijan and Mozambique (up 0.1 million tons each in the last two), and smaller increases for Oman and Togo, based on pace. Partly offsetting are decreased imports for Brazil, Ethiopia, and Russia (down 0.2 million tons each), as well as smaller reductions for Jamaica and Ecuador. Australia s exports are up 1.0 million tons to a record 18.5 million for the July-June international trade year, as the pace in recent months exceeded expectations. This is despite a low 2010/11 wheat harvest in Western Australia, and following logistical problems of exporting wheat from the eastern part of the country. Exports from Kazakhstan, Canada, Argentina, and Turkmenistan are also up 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.2 million tons, respectively. Smaller upward adjustments are made for Egypt, Thailand, and Guatemala. The increases are partly offset by reductions for Iran (down 0.2 million tons), Mexico and Croatia (down 0.1 million tons each), and the United States for the international July-June marketing year of 201/11. U.S. exports were reduced 0.2 million tons to 35.8 million, as inspections and exports sales shipments in June 2010 were not as strong as expected a month ago. Census data for June are not yet available, and the current number is not finalized. For the local June-May marketing year, U.S. exports are down 9 million bushels to 1,286 million bushels (or 35.0 million tons).. 11

12 Figure 1 All wheat average prices received by farmers Dollars per bushel / / /12 June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Market year Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Agricultural Prices. Figure 2 Hard red winter wheat average prices received by farmers Dollars per bushel / / /11 June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Market year Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Agricultural Prices. Figure 3 Hard red spring wheat average prices received by farmers Dollars per bushel / / / June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Market year Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Agricultural Prices. 12 Wheat Outlook/WHS-11g/July 15, 2011

13 Figure 4 Soft red winter wheat average prices received by farmers Dollars per bushel / / /11 June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Market year Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Agricultural Prices. Figure 5 Soft white wheat average prices received by farmers Dollars per bushel / / /11 June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Market year Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Agricultural Prices. Figure 6 Durum wheat average prices received by farmers Dollars per bushel / / /12 June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Market year Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Agricultural Prices. 13

14 Figure 7 All wheat: U.S. supply and disappearance change from prior market year Beginning stocks Imports Production Supply Domestic use Exports Total disappearance Ending stocks Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Figure 8 Hard red winter wheat: U.S. supply and disappearance change from prior market year Beginning stocks Imports Production Supply Domestic use Exports Total disappearance Ending stocks Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Figure 9 Hard red spring wheat: U.S. supply and disappearance change from prior market year Beginning stocks Imports Production Supply Domestic use Exports Total disappearance Ending stocks Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 14

15 Figure 10 Soft red winter wheat: U.S. supply and disappearance change from prior market year Beginning stocks Imports Production Supply Domestic use Exports Total disappearance Ending stocks Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Figure 11 White wheat: U.S. supply and disappearance change from prior market year Beginning stocks Imports Production Supply Domestic use Exports Total disappearance Ending stocks Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Figure 12 Durum: U.S. supply and disappearance change from prior market year Beginning stocks Imports Production Supply Domestic use Exports Total disappearance Ending stocks Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 15

16 Contacts and Links Contact Information Gary Vocke (domestic), (202) , Olga Liefert (international), (202) , Beverly Payton (Web Publishing), (202) , Subscription Information Subscribe to ERS notification service at to receive timely notification of newsletter availability. For paper copies of this report, call the ERS Order Desk at (specify the issue number). Data Monthly tables from Wheat Outlook are available in Excel (.xls) spreadsheets at These tables contain the latest data on supply and disappearance, monthly food-use estimates, prices, exports, and imports. Related Websites Wheat Outlook WASDE Grain Circular, Wheat Briefing Room, Notification Readers of ERS outlook reports have two ways they can receive an notice about release of reports and associated data. Receive timely notification (soon after the report is posted on the web) via USDA s Economics, Statistics and Market Information System (which is housed at Cornell University s Mann Library). Go to nusda/about service.do and follow the instructions to receive e- mail notices about ERS, Agricultural Marketing Service, National Agricultural Statistics Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board products. Receive weekly notification (on Friday afternoon) via the ERS website. Go to and follow the instructions to receive notices about ERS outlook reports, Amber Waves magazine, and other reports and data products on specific topics. ERS also offers RSS (really simple syndication) feeds for all ERS products. Go to to get started. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and, where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C or call (800) (voice) or (202) (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. 16

17 Table 1Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 7/14/2011 Item and unit 2005/ /07 Area: Planted Million acres Harvested Million acres / / / / / Yield Bushels per acre Supply: Beginning stocks Production Imports 1/ Total supply , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,066.9 Disappearance: Food use Seed use Feed and residual use Total domestic use Exports 1/ Total disapperance , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,396.5 Ending stocks CCC inventory 2/ Stocks-to-use ratio Loan rate Contract/direct payment rate Farm price 3/ Dollars per bushel Dollars per bushel Dollars per bushel Government payments Market value of production Million dollars Million dollars 1,151 7,167 1,120 7,695 1,118 13,289 1,118 16,626 10,654 12,588 15,375 Latest market year is projected; previous market year is estimated. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Includes flour and selected other products expressed in grain-equivalent bushels. 2/ Stocks owned by USDA's Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). Most CCC-owned inventory is in the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust. 3/ U.S. season-average price based on monthly prices weighted by monthly marketings. Prices do not include an allowance for loans outstanding and government purchases. Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and supporting materials. Date run: 7/12/

18 Table 2Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance, 7/14/2011 Hard red Market year, item, and unit All wheat winter 1/ 2010/11 Area: Planted acreage Million acres Harvested acreage Million acres Hard red spring 1/ Soft red winter 1/ White 1/ Durum Yield Bushels per acre Supply: Beginning stocks Production Imports 2/ Total supply , , , , Disappearance: Food use Seed use Feed and residual use Total domestic use Exports 2/ Total disappearance , , , , Ending stocks /12 Area: Planted acreage Harvested acreage Million acres Million acres Yield Bushels per acre Supply: Beginning stocks Production Imports 2/ Total supply , , , Disappearance: Food use Seed use Feed and residual use Total domestic use Exports 2/ Total disappearance , , , Ending stocks Latest market year is projected; previous market year is estimated. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Area and yield data are unpublished National Agricultural Statistics Service data. Supply and disappearance data, except production, are approximations. 2/ Includes flour and selected other products expressed in grain-equivalent bushels. Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Production and unpublished data; and USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and supporting materials. Date run: 7/12/

19 Table 3Wheat: U.S. quarterly supply and disappearance (million bushels), 7/14/2011 Market year and quarter 2003/04 Jun-Aug Sep-Nov Dec-Feb Mar-May Mkt. year Production 2,344 2,344 Imports 1/ Total supply 2,852 2,057 1,533 1,037 2,899 Food use Seed use Feed and residual use Exports 1/ ,158 Ending stocks 2,039 1,520 1, /05 Jun-Aug Sep-Nov Dec-Feb Mar-May Mkt. year 2,157 2, ,721 1,957 1,448 1,001 2, ,066 1,938 1, /06 Jun-Aug Sep-Nov Dec-Feb Mar-May Mkt. year 2,103 2, ,662 1,944 1, , ,003 1,923 1, /07 Jun-Aug Sep-Nov Dec-Feb Mar-May Mkt. year 1,808 1, ,406 1,780 1, , ,751 1, /08 Jun-Aug Sep-Nov Dec-Feb Mar-May Mkt. year 2,051 2, ,538 1,738 1, , ,263 1,717 1, /09 Jun-Aug Sep-Nov Dec-Feb Mar-May Mkt. year 2,499 2, ,833 1,886 1,458 1,075 2, ,015 1,858 1,422 1, /10 Jun-Aug Sep-Nov Dec-Feb Mar-May Mkt. year 2,218 2, ,902 2,234 1,812 1,393 2, ,209 1,782 1, /11 Jun-Aug Sep-Nov Dec-Feb Mar-May Mkt. year 2,208 2, ,212 2,473 1,956 1,451 3, ,286 2,450 1,933 1, /12 Mkt. year 2, , , Latest market year is projected; previous market year is estimated. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Includes flour and selected other products expressed in grain-equivalent bushels. Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and supporting materials. Date run: 7/12/

20 Table 4Wheat: Monthly food disappearance estimates (1,000 grain-equivalent bushels), 7/14/2011 Mkt year and month 1/ 2009/ /11 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Wheat ground for flour 72,104 74,023 80,902 77,793 78,638 75,269 70,651 72,641 72,064 76,457 73,047 74,687 71,457 74,629 81,564 78,430 79,447 76,043 71,378 71,677 71,108 75,443 + Food imports 2/ 2,007 1,985 2,163 1,959 2,302 2,187 2,112 2,038 1,852 2,502 2,183 2,161 2,130 2,129 2,279 2,259 2,353 2,372 2,475 2,262 1,967 2,657 + Nonmilled food use 3/ 73,600 75,970 81,646 79,826 80,115 77,005 73,171 74,783 73,694 77,906 74,914 76,286 73,544 77,260 83,951 81,065 81,667 78,956 74,078 73,830 72,993 78,288 2,435 2, / Current year is preliminary. Previous year is preliminary through August of current year, estimated afterwards. 2/ Food imports and exports used to calculate total food use. Includes all categories of wheat flour, semolina, bulgur, and couscous and selected categories of pasta. 3/ Wheat prepared for food use by processes other than milling. - Food exports 2/ 2,511 2,038 3,420 1,926 2,825 2,451 1,592 1,896 2,222 3,053 2,316 2,562 2,042 1,499 1,892 1,624 2,133 1,460 1,774 2,110 2,083 1,812 = Food use 4/ 4/ Estimated food use equals wheat ground for flour plus food imports plus nonmilled food use minus food exports. See for more information. Sources: Calculated using data from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Flour Milling Products (MQ311A) and Foreign Trade Statistics. Date run: 7/12/

21 Table 5Wheat: National average price received by farmers (dollars per bushel) 1/, 7/14/2011 Month All wheat Winter 2010/ / / /12 June July August September October November December January February March April May / Preliminary mid-month, weighted-average price for current month. Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Agricultural Prices. Durum 2010/ / Other spring 2010/ / Table 6Wheat: National average prices received by farmers by class (dollars per bushel), 7/14/2011 Month Hard red winter Soft red winter Hard red spring White 2009/ / / /11 June July August September October November December January February March April May Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Agricultural Prices. 2009/ / / / Date run: 7/12/

22 Table 7Wheat: Average cash grain bids at principal markets, 7/14/2011 Month June July August September October November December January February March April May No. 1 hard red winter (ordinary protein) Kansas City, MO (dollars per bushel) 2010/ / No. 1 hard red winter (13% protein) Kansas City, MO (dollars per bushel) 2010/ / No. 1 hard red winter (ordinary protein) Portland, OR (dollars per bushel) 2010/ / No. 1 hard red winter (ordinary protein) Texas Gulf, TX 1/ (dollars per metric ton) 2010/ /12 June July August September October November December January February March April May No. 1 dark northern spring (13% protein) Chicago, IL (dollars per bushel) 2010/ / No. 1 dark northern spring (14% protein) Chicago, IL (dollars per bushel) 2010/ / No. 1 dark northern spring (14% protein) Portland, OR (dollars per bushel) 2010/ / No. 1 hard amber durum Minneapolis, MN (dollars per bushel) 2010/ /12 June July August September October November December January February March April May No. 2 soft red winter St. Louis, MO (dollars per bushel) 2010/ / No. 2 soft red winter Chicago, IL (dollars per bushel) 2010/ / No. 2 soft red winter Toledo, OH (dollars per bushel) 2010/ / No. 1 soft white Portland, OR (dollars per bushel) 2010/ / = Not available or no quote. 1/ Free on board. Source: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, State Grain Reports, template=templates&navid=marketnewsandtransportationdata&leftnav=marketnewsandtransportationdata&page=lsmarketnewspa gestategrainreports. Date run: 7/12/

23 Table 8Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months (1,000 bushels), 7/14/2011 Item Exports All wheat grain All wheat flour 1/ All wheat products 2/ Total all wheat Nov , ,631 Dec ,582 1, ,389 Jan ,741 1, ,936 Feb ,409 1, ,507 Mar ,873 1, ,698 Apr ,979 1, ,507 Imports All wheat grain All wheat flour 1/ All wheat products 2/ Total all wheat 5, ,402 7,499 5, ,523 7,772 5, ,330 8,131 5, ,192 7,397 4,682 1,127 1,545 7,353 6, ,553 8,588 Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Expressed in grain-equivalent bushels. Includes meal, groats, and durum. 2/ Expressed in grain-equivalent bushels. Includes bulgur, couscous, and selected categories of pasta. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics; and ERS calculations using Census trade statistics. Date run: 7/12/

24 Table 9Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and export sales comparison (1,000 metric tons),07/14/ / / /12(as of 6/30/11) Importing Outcountry Shipments standing Total Data Export Export Export source Census 1/ sales 2/ Census 1/ sales 2/ sales 2/ Country: Egypt na 4, Nigeria 3,256 3,233 na 3, Japan 3,171 3,148 na 3, ,144 Mexico 1,975 na 2, Philippines 1,573 1,518 na 1, ,028 South Korea 1,102 1,111 na 1, Taiwan na Venezuela na Colombia na Peru na Indonesia na EU na 1, Total grain 23,182 21,686 na 33,439 2,664 6,060 8,725 Total (including products) 23,977 21,794 na 33,539 2,670 6,071 8,740 USDA forecast of Census 35,244 31,297 1/ Source is U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau 2/ Source is Foreign Agricultural Service's weekly U.S. Export Sales report. Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service's, U.S. Export Sales. 24