Creating New Dynamism, Fostering a Shared Future on the Asia-Pacific

Transcription

1 2016/ISOM/SYM/005 Session I Creating New Dynamism, Fostering a Shared Future on the Asia-Pacific Submitted by: PECC Symposium on on Priorities for APEC 2017 Ha Noi, Viet Nam 8 December 2016

2 Symposium on APEC 2017 Priorities Session 1: Creating New Dynamism Fostering a Shared Future on the Asia-Pacific Eduardo Pedrosa Secretary General Pacific Economic Cooperation Council Need for New Dynamism? 80% 67.0% 60% 40% 36.0% 20% 10.0% 10.0% 24.0% 32.0% 17.9% 15.5% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -12.0% -26.0% -65.0% -62.0% -27.0% -16.0% -38.7% -34.3% -100% Weaker Stronger Question: What are your expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months compared to the last year for the global economy? 1

3 Slowdown in Trade Growth 2 nd highest risk 60% 55% 54.2% 54.1% 52.2% 51.8% 52.5% 50% 45% 42.9% 40% ALL NA NEA OCE PSA SEA Failure to Implement Structural Reforms 3 rd highest risk 60% 55% 50% 50.0% 45% 40% 40.4% 40.7% 44.9% 39.7% 35% 30% 29.4% 25% 20% ALL NA NEA OCE PSA SEA Total 2

4 Risk of Protectionism on an Upward Trend 40% 35% 31.7% 30% 28.2% 25% 22.3% 25.4% 20% 15% 19.1% 16.3% 10% % of respondents who selected protectionism as a risk to growth Drivers of Future Growth Emerging Asia-Pacific Advanced Asia-Pacific 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Private Sector Investment 80.9% Trade 76.0% Institutional Environment 79.3% Innovation & Technology 75.5% Trade 75.9% Private Sector Investment 73.6% Innovation & Technology 73.2% Institutional Environment 63.9% Consumption 66.0% Consumption 57.4% Government Investment 62.8% Government Investment 42.3% Emerging Advanced 3

5 Services especially internet/ict will drive future growth Digital trade, e-commerce and the internet economy Information and communication Education Financial and insurance activities Health Manufacturing Professional, scientific and technical activities Wholesale and retail trade Construction Transportation and storage Urban services Power generation Accommodation and food service activities Real estate activities Agriculture, forestry and fishing Arts, entertainment and recreation Other service activities Mining and quarrying But there are some differences in emphasis: education and manufacturing more important for emerging economies Education Manufacturing Information and communication Digital trade, e-commerce and the internet economy Health Financial and insurance activities Agriculture, forestry and fishing Power generation Construction Transportation and storage Urban services Professional, scientific and technical activities Wholesale and retail trade Accommodation and food service activities Real estate activities Mining and quarrying Arts, entertainment and recreation Other service activities

6 Traditional sectors much less important for advanced economies Digital trade, e-commerce and the internet economy Information and communication Education Financial and insurance activities Health Professional, scientific and technical activities Wholesale and retail trade Construction Urban services Manufacturing Real estate activities Transportation and storage Accommodation and food service activities Power generation Other service activities Arts, entertainment and recreation Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Structure of the Asia-Pacific economy Other Activities (ISIC J-P) Transport, storage and communication (ISIC I) Wholesale, retail trade, restaurants and hotels (ISIC G-H) Construction (ISIC F) Manufacturing (ISIC D) Mining & Utilities (ISIC C-E) Agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing (ISIC A- B) 6.8% 10.2% 14.8% 13.9% 6.6% 4.3% 15.2% 8.3% 4.2% 6.9% 1.3% 28.0% 28.7% 51.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Emerging Advanced 5

7 Contribution to Growth ( ) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% ISIC J-P (Other Activities) 29.5% 45.6% ISIC I (Transport, storage and communication) ISIC G-H (Wholesale, retail trade, restaurants and hotels) ISIC F (Construction) 7.9% 7.0% 4.7% 14.5% 15.6% 18.8% ISIC D (Manufacturing) ISIC C&E (Mining & Utilities) ISIC A&B (Agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing) Emerging 10.1% 6.4% 5.3% 4.7% 1.1% Advanced 29.0% Top 10 Priorities for APEC 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% Bogor Goals and the FTAAP 33.2% The APEC growth strategy 35.8% Structural reforms 33.2% Anti-globalisation & anti-trade sentiments Connectivity 27.1% 28.9% Investing in human capital development Climate change and disaster resilience The modernization of MSMEs 23.7% 23.5% 23.5% The Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA) Corruption 20.8% 21.0% 6

8 Conclusions Negative perceptions of growth prospects remain Slower trade growth and rising protectionism Urgent need for structural reforms to unleash new growth drivers Investment and policy reforms critical for emerging Asia-Pacific, innovation and trade for advanced Asia- Pacific Some differences in emphasis with manufacturing and agriculture relatively more important for emerging economies Are there differences or is it complementarity among Asia- Pacific economies? Role for APEC in shaping common agenda Role for APEC in dealing with negative perceptions of trade 7