Accepted Manuscript. Salmonella spp. in lymph nodes of fed and cull cattle: Relative assessment of risk to ground beef

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1 Accepted Manuscript Salmonella spp. in lymph nodes of fed and cull cattle: Relative assessment of risk to ground beef Min Li, Sasidhar Malladi, H. Scott Hurd, Timothy J. Goldsmith, Dayna M. Brichta- Harhay, Guy H. Loneragan PII: S (14) DOI: /j.foodcont Reference: JFCO 4060 To appear in: Food Control Received Date: 3 April 2014 Revised Date: 8 September 2014 Accepted Date: 9 September 2014 Please cite this article as: Li M., Malladi S., Hurd H.S., Goldsmith T.J., Brichta-Harhay D.M. & Loneragan G.H., Salmonella spp. in lymph nodes of fed and cull cattle: Relative assessment of risk to ground beef, Food Control (2014), doi: /j.foodcont This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

2 1 2 3 Salmonella spp. in Lymph Nodes of Fed and Cull Cattle: Relative Assessment of Risk to Ground Beef Min Li 1*, Sasidhar Malladi 2, H. Scott Hurd 1#, Timothy J. Goldsmith 2, Dayna M Brichta-Harhay 3, and Guy H. Loneragan 4 1 Department of Production Animal Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA 2 College of Veterinary Medicine, Center for Animal Health and Food Safety, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA 3 U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Meat Animal Research Center, Clay Center, NE 68933, USA 4 Department of Animal and Food Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA * Corresponding author: Current Address: S3-110 Schurman Hall, Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA Tel.: ; Fax: ; minli@cornell.edu # Decreased

3 27 Abstract Ground beef products have been implicated as the vehicle for the transmission of Salmonella in a number of outbreaks. Although carcass surface interventions have proven effective, Salmonella contamination in ground beef still occurs. Recent studies indicate that deep tissue lymph nodes (DTLNs) may be an important source of Salmonella contamination in ground beef products. We developed a stochastic simulation model covering the pre- to post-harvest stages to assess the relative contribution of DTLN as compared with carcass surface, to Salmonella in ground beef, and the impact of various pre- and post-harvest interventions. The model addressed fed and cull cattle, and in high and low prevalence seasons. Contamination from carcass surface and DTLNs was simulated separately. Linear relationships were used to describe the changes of Salmonella surface concentration and prevalence at different processing stages. The baseline results indicate that on average over 90% of the Salmonella CFU load in a 2,000 lb (907 kg) production lot originates from DTLN contamination as compared with carcass surface contamination. The relative contribution of DTLN contamination was fairly robust to changes in model parameters for ground beef from fed cattle, while it was comparatively more sensitive to changes in model parameters for cull cattle. The predicted mean Salmonella CFU load from DTLN contamination was considerably greater in ground beef production lots from fed cattle compared with cull cattle. Correspondingly, our scenario analysis suggested that generic pre-harvest interventions which can reduce Salmonella contamination in DTLNs would cause a greater total CFU load reduction in ground beef production lots from fed cattle compared with cull cattle. The study 2

4 provides some information for prioritizing control measures targeted at Salmonella contamination from the beef carcass surface or DTLNs based on the current knowledge. Keywords: Salmonella; risk assessment; ground beef; lymph node; carcass surface; cattle;

5 67 1. Introduction Ground beef products have been implicated in a number of salmonellosis outbreaks (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], 2011, 2012, 2013). Cattle hide contamination is primarily responsible for the contamination of carcass surfaces, which may result in contaminated ground beef if the pathogens survive carcass interventions during processing (Arthur et al., 2008a; Barkocy-Gallagher et al., 2003; Brichta-Harhay et al., 2008). Previous investigations indicate a fairly low level of Salmonella prevalence (on average less than 1%) on post-intervention carcasses due to the application of various carcass interventions in commercial beef processing plants (Brichta-Harhay et al., 2008; Rivera-Betancourt et al., 2004). Despite the success of carcass interventions, however, testing results from the United States Department of Agriculture, Food Safety Inspection Service (USDA/FSIS) indicate little reduction of Salmonella contamination in ground beef during the past decade, with generally over 2.0% prevalence in ground beef samples (25 g) during the past years (USDA/FSIS, 2012). These discrepancies imply other potential sources for ground beef contamination, among which lymph nodes have received increasing attentions in recent years. A growing number of studies indicate that Salmonella may be harbored in bovine deep tissue lymph nodes (DTLNs), such as subiliac, iliofemoral, and superficial cervical LNs, which are embedded in adipose tissues that are frequently included in ground beef and thus could potentially contaminate the final product (Arthur et al., 2008b; Brichta-Harhay et al., 2012; Gragg et al., 2013a,b; Haneklaus et al., 2012; Koohmaraie et al., 2012). A two-year survey of Salmonella contamination in subiliac lymph nodes (n=3,327) of cull and fed cattle across the 4

6 nation indicated an average prevalence of 7.5%, and Salmonella harborage appeared to be affected by season, region and animal type (Gragg et al., 2013a). Since Salmonella harbored in DTLNs are likely to evade the antimicrobial carcass surface interventions currently implemented in the processing plants, other potential pre- and post-harvest interventions, such as vaccination, probiotics, lymph node removal and final product treatment, could be explored to reduce or eliminate Salmonella originating from DTLNs. To harness limited resources to reduce the Salmonella burden, it is critical for the beef industry to employ a science-based, risk-informed approach to choose the most effective intervention strategies among a variety of control options. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a stochastic simulation model to assess the relative contribution of DTLNs to Salmonella contamination of ground beef products, and exercise the model with best available data to evaluate the relative impact of various pre- and post-harvest intervention strategies. The following outcomes were evaluated: (i) relative contribution of DTLN contamination to the Salmonella CFU load in a 2,000 lb (907 kg) production lot; (ii) total Salmonella CFU load in a production lot. The model could aid producers and beef packers in making informed decisions regarding the choice of effective control measures, and direct future research needs, especially for gathering appropriate data to improve the predictive ability of the model. 2. Materials and Methods Model development 5

7 A stochastic spreadsheet based simulation model covering the pre-harvest to post-harvest stages was utilized to predict the relative contribution of Salmonella from DTLNs. The model scope and key assumptions are summarized in Tables 1 and 2. The model is comprised of three modules as shown in Figs. 1 to 3: (1) Salmonella prevalence on carcass surface; (2) Salmonella concentration on carcass surface; and (3) Salmonella prevalence and concentration in DTLNs. The parameters and calculations for the three modules are listed in Table Modeling Salmonella prevalence on carcass surfaces The carcass surface prevalence module starts with post-stun hide prevalence (Fig. 1). The transfer of Salmonella from live animal s feces to hide surface was not attempted because previous studies have showed that the transport and lairage stages after harvest and before slaughtering have a commingling effect which can increase the magnitude of contamination and mess up the genetic association between pre- and post-harvest bacterial isolates (Arthur et al., 2007, 2008a). Hide prevalence (P 1 ) for fed and cull cattle, in high and low prevalence seasons, was estimated from multiple studies across different geographical regions (Table 3). During dehiding, Salmonella can be transferred to the carcass surface through direct contact with the hide or airborne particulates created during the process. A linear transfer coefficient (P 2 ) was assumed to describe this process and relate the Salmonella prevalence from 1,000 cm 2 hides to the prevalence on 8,000 cm 2 pre-evisceration carcasses (P 3 ) (hide and carcass sampling areas in most data were 1,000 and 8,000 cm 2, respectively). Similar linear regression models have been used previously to simulate the transfer of E. coli O157:H7 prevalence from feces to pre-evisceration carcasses (Hurd & Malladi, 2012; USDA/FSIS, 6

8 ). Studies that used tagged and matched hide and carcass samples were chosen to estimate the linear transfer coefficient (Arthur et al., 2008a; Barkocy-Gallagher et al., 2003; Brichta-Harhay et al., 2007, 2008; Rivera-Betancourt et al., 2004). Uncertainty associated with this parameter was estimated by linear regression parameter bootstrapping. To be more specific, the hide and carcass prevalence (denoted as independent and dependent variables, respectively) from individual studies were first described by Binomial (n, p)/n distributions, respectively, where n is sample size, p is the percent of positive samples, and Binomial (n, p) is the number of positive samples. Using the bootstrapping technique, both of the hide and carcass prevalence distributions from all studies were resampled together in pairs for a number of 1,000 times. Each paired bootstrap replicates in one iteration were used to calculate a linear regression coefficient and hence 1,000 linear coefficients were calculated after the iterations, which were then best fitted with a Normal (0.44, 0.045) distribution to represent the uncertainty of the linear transfer coefficient. Following hide removal, carcasses are subject to multiple carcass intervention steps to minimize bacterial contamination on the surface. Because of data limitations, specific intervention steps were modeled as generic interventions and the impact on prevalence reduction (P 4 ) was evaluated using a linear model linking the change of prevalence from pre-evisceration to post-intervention carcasses on an 8,000 cm 2 external carcass surface area segments. The number of contaminated 8,000 cm 2 external surface area segments (P 11 ) from cattle contributing ground beef for a production lot was simulated with a Binomial distribution with parameters as, the number of 8,000 cm 2 carcass segments added to a production lot (P 10 ), and the Salmonella prevalence on 8,000 cm 2 post-intervention carcass segments (P 5 ). 7

9 Modeling Salmonella concentration on carcass surfaces The carcass surface concentration module starts with Salmonella concentration on pre-evisceration carcasses (Fig. 2). The transfer of bacterial concentration from hide to carcass was not included because the linear regression fit linking hide and carcass concentrations seemed to underestimate the Salmonella pre-evisceration carcass surface concentration compared with observed data (Bosilevac et al., 2009b; Brichta-Harhay et al., 2008). The Salmonella concentration on pre-evisceration carcasses (C 1 ) was fitted with an empirical cumulative distribution based on data obtained from Brichta-Harhay et al. (2007, 2008). This function was used because the best fit parametric distributions were not able to adequately incorporate the extreme variability (tail probability or very high carcass surface concentrations in a few of the samples) in the reported data. Data on the effectiveness of carcass surface interventions in reducing Salmonella carcass concentrations in commercial beef processing plants are scarce. Therefore, this parameter was estimated based on a couple of indirect data sources: 1) commercial plant sampling data for reduction of indicator microorganisms (aerobic plate count) before evisceration and after chilling (C 2 ); 2) laboratory data for Salmonella reduction on inoculated carcass samples after application of certain carcass interventions (C 3 ). Data from the laboratory tests involved two consecutive carcass interventions: organic acid wash and steam pasteurization. Their reduction effects measured in log CFU/100 cm 2 were fitted with Lognormal (2.18, 1.07) and Gamma (4.96, 0.51) distributions, respectively, and then summed up to estimate the total bacterial reduction. 8

10 The amount of Salmonella from individually contaminated 8,000 cm 2 post-intervention carcass surface segments (C 4 and C 5 ) were summed up and multiplied by the percent of carcass surface area represented in beef trim (ρ), to estimate the total Salmonella CFU load from carcass surface contamination in a production lot (C 8 ) (Fig. 2) Modeling Salmonella prevalence and concentration in DTLNs The DTLN contamination module involved modeling the prevalence and concentration of Salmonella in DTLNs (Fig. 3). The DTLN prevalence data from individual studies were first fitted with Beta distributions, which were then aggregated with equal probability using a discrete uniform distribution for each category of animal-type and seasonal combinations (L 1 ) (Arthur et al., 2008b; Gragg et al., 2013a) (Table 3). The number of contaminated DTLNs added to a production lot (L 3 ) was estimated by the Binomial distribution by accounting for DTLN prevalence (L 1 ) and the number of major DTLNs (subiliac, superficial cervical, and popliteal lymph nodes) or equivalent DTLN tissues added to a production lot, which was the product of the number of DTLNs per carcass added to a production lot (L 2 ) (assumed to be a minimum of 2, maximum of 6 and most likely value of 4, due to data gaps) and the number of carcasses in a production lot (P 8 ). The proportion of enumerated positive DTLNs (L 5 ) and Salmonella concentration in enumerable contaminated DTLNs (L 6 ) for fed cattle were obtained from Gragg (2012) and Gragg et al (2013a), which tested 1,501 DTLN samples of fed cattle across three geographical regions in the U.S. in a two-year span. In a subset of 618 samples, 67% (n=144) were positive and 114 enumerable. The enumeration data were fitted with a Weibull (1.88, 9

11 , RiskShift (-0.21)) log CFU/g distribution and truncated at a minimum of 0 log CFU/g and a maximum of 4 log CFU/g based on the raw data. These two parameters (L 5 and L 6 ) for cull cattle were based on an unpublished study through personal communication with Loneragan and Harhay (2014). Similar to the fed cattle study, the cull cattle study collected 1,655 cull cattle DTLNs across different geographical regions in different seasons and detected Salmonella prevalence and concentration. Only 1.8% samples were found contaminated with Salmonella and a small proportion of the positive samples were enumerable, which was fitted with a Uniform (0.15, 2.2) log CFU/g distribution. Thereafter, the Salmonella CFUs in a contaminated DTLN (L 7 ) was calculated via multiplying the weight of DTLNs (L 4 ) by the concentration of Salmonella in contaminated DTLNs (CFU/g), and the latter was calculated to be 10 L6 CFU/g if the contaminated DTLNs were enumerable and a minimum of 1 CFU/g if non-enumerable, using the Binomial (1, L 5 ) distribution to assign the state of either enumerable or non-enumerable for prevalence positive samples. Finally, the total Salmonella CFU load from DTLNs in a production lot (L 8 ) was calculated by summing up Salmonella CFUs in all contaminated DTLNs. Very limited data were available to quantify the effect of pre-harvest interventions. Therefore, the model assumed multiple scenarios to study the impact of potential pre-harvest interventions in reducing lymph node prevalence and concentration, which is to be explained in Section 2.3. Finally, the relative contribution of DTLNs was defined as the percentage of the total Salmonella CFU load from DTLNs versus the total CFU load contributed from both DTLNs and carcass surfaces in a production lot (Table 3) Evidence collection for model parameters 10

12 A systematic search of scientific literature was conducted to identify all relevant publications regarding Salmonella contamination and interventions during pre- and post-harvest stages. Three databases, including Agricola, PubMed, and Food Science and Technology Abstract (FSTA) were searched from 1996 to 2013 (HACCP was implemented in 1996 in the USA). Data sources encompassed journal papers, conference proceedings, thesis/dissertations, and annual reports, and were restricted to North America (USA, Canada, and Mexico) studies. The overall search term was Pathogen AND Population AND Outcome, which was adapted from Sargeant, Amezcua, Rajic, and Waddell (2007).The specific search terms are shown in Table 4. A total of 3,814 references were obtained after the search, 2,168 references passed duplication deletion and relevance screening, and ultimately 42 references remained after quality assessment. Criteria for quality assessment were comprised of sound study designs and experimental procedures, adequate statistical analysis, and sufficient description of intervention protocols, etc. In case of key data deficiencies from the literature, external expert opinions were elicited and applicable unpublished studies used. Evidences were extracted from appropriate studies passing quality assessment and tabulated for corresponding model parameters comprising a variety of categories, such as cattle type, season, geographical location, prevalence, concentration, detection method, and intervention effect. To account for variability in the complex beef system, relevant data from multiple studies were compiled to define parameter estimates, and appropriate weights were assigned 236 to each study proportional to their sample sizes. 2.3 Scenario analysis Multiple scenario analyses with respect to key parameters were conducted to estimate how changes in their values impact model outcomes. These scenarios included: multiplying the 11

13 effectiveness of generic post-harvest interventions in reducing carcass surface prevalence and concentration by multipliers from 20 to 100%; reducing DTLN prevalence by 0 to 50% and concentration by 0 to 1 log CFU/g owing to generic pre-harvest interventions; and changing the number of major DTLNs (or equivalent lymph node tissues) per carcass added to a production lot from 1 to 8. software (version 6.2, Palisade, Newfield, NY), an add-in the Excel spreadsheet, was used to develop and simulate the model with 100,000 iterations for the baseline model and each scenario analysis. 3. Results 3.1 Relative contribution of Salmonella from DTLNs to the total CFU load in a production lot Table 5 indicates that for each category of animal type and season combinations, most of the Salmonella contamination originates from DTLNs, which ranged from 99.8% to 99.9% for fed cattle and from 96.8% to 98.3% for cull cattle, respectively. These results indicate that the contribution of DTLNs to a production lot contamination is relatively robust to animal type and seasonal difference. However, since the DTLN concentration data for cull cattle were based on enumeration data for a small sample size of DTLNs, there is a greater uncertainty associated with the cull cattle results compared with the fed cattle. 3.2 Total Salmonella CFU load in a production lot Table 5 shows that the total Salmonella CFU load in a production lot has seasonal and animal type variations. The predicted CFU load was greater, for fed cattle than for cull cattle, and in high season than in low season. 12

14 Impact of generic post-harvest carcass interventions on the relative contribution of DTLNs to Salmonella CFU load in a production lot 262 As indicated in Table 6, the relative contribution of DTLNs to the total CFU load for fed cattle remained high (96.5% to 99.9% in high season, and 66.9% to 99.8% in low season) with the increase of the effectiveness of generic post-harvest interventions in reducing Salmonella prevalence and/or concentration. However, for cull cattle (Table 7), the relative contribution of DTLNs to the total CFU load was fairly sensitive to the effectiveness of the post-harvest interventions, and varied from 9.0% to 97.6% in high season, and 7.6% to 96.8% in low season, across different effectiveness levels. 3.4 Impact of generic pre-harvest carcass interventions on the total Salmonella CFU in a production lot As illustrated in Table 8, for fed cattle in high season, increasing the effectiveness of generic pre-harvest interventions in reducing the Salmonella prevalence and concentration in DTLNs reduced the total Salmonella CFU load considerably from 16,985 to 855 while not having a significant impact on the relative contribution from DTLNs. In comparison, for cull cattle in high season (Table 9), a small change of the total CFU load from 58.2 to 6.9 owing to the increased effectiveness of generic pre-harvest interventions caused a significant reduction in the DTLN contribution from 92.9% to 40.2%. Similar trends were observed in low season and in high season for fed and cull cattle, respectively (data not shown). 13

15 Impact of the number of major DTLNs on the total Salmonella CFU load in a production lot 282 As shown in Fig. 4, the total Salmonella CFU load in a production lot for fed cattle in high season increased dramatically when the number of major DTLNs per animal added to a ground beef production lot was increased from 1 to 8. However, the relative contribution of DTLN was not significantly affected, which remained over 99%. For cull cattle in the high prevalence season, increasing the number of major DTLNs resulted in an increase in the average CFU load per production lot from 47 to 341 CFUs, which corresponded to an increase in the DTLN contribution from 91.2% to 98.8%. 4. Discussion The results from the baseline scenario indicate that most of the Salmonella load in a ground beef production lot originates from DTLNs, with relatively little contribution from the carcass surface contamination. An explanation for these results is that a single contaminated DTLN (L 7 ) (on average, CFU for fed cattle and CFU for cull cattle) can often add considerably more CFUs than does a contaminated 8,000 cm 2 post-intervention carcass segment (less than CFU for both fed and cull cattle). Furthermore, a greater number of contaminated DTLNs (L 3 ) than that of 8,000 cm 2 contaminated carcass surface segments (P 11 ) were predicted to be included in a production lot, particularly for fed cattle with higher DTLN prevalence (Table 3). These results also indicate that the carcass surface interventions are quite effective and very few Salmonella CFUs would be added to a production lot from the surface. These results are consistent with previous USDA/ARS studies 14

16 (Barkocy-Gallagher et al., 2003; Brichta-Harhay et al., 2008), where very few post-intervention carcasses were enrichment positive for Salmonella and an even smaller proportion of those enrichment positive samples were enumerable at very low concentrations The scenario analyses indicated that, for fed cattle, the relative contribution of DTLN contamination is fairly robust to changes in model parameters such as the effectiveness of post-harvest interventions. There is a greater uncertainty regarding the relative contribution of DTLN contamination for cull cattle and the results were more sensitive to changes in model parameters in this case. The model results also indicate that ground beef from cull cattle would have a lower Salmonella load in orders of magnitude relative to fed cattle. This is because compared with fed cattle, cull cattle contributed less carcasses per production lot (P 8 ), and had a lower DTLN Salmonella prevalence (L 1 ), resulting in fewer contaminated DTLNs being included in a production lot (L 3 ). Moreover, the proportion of enumerated positive DTLNs (L 5 ) and Salmonella concentration in enumerable contaminated DTLNs (L 5 ) of cull cattle were lower, leading to less CFU load per contaminated DTLN (L 7 ) in cull cattle. The model reflects the observed difference in Salmonella DTLN prevalence and concentration between fed and cull cattle, and indicates that cull cattle DTLNs are not likely a great contributor to Salmonella contamination in ground beef. This may reflect discrepancies in hygiene or mitigation practices prior to harvest, as well as differences in Salmonella prevalence in cattle 320 environment (Gragg, 2013a). 15

17 Several categories of pre-harvest interventions, such as vaccines, are being evaluated for reducing Salmonella in DTLNs of beef cattle (Edrington et al., 2013). We evaluated the impact of generic pre-harvest interventions which could reduce the prevalence and/or concentration of Salmonella in DTLNs on the model outcomes. Our scenario analysis indicates that generic pre-harvest interventions that can reduce Salmonella prevalence and concentration in DTLNs could also result in a significant reduction in the total Salmonella CFU load in a ground beef production lot for fed cattle. This is not unexpected since most of the Salmonella CFUs of fed cattle could be attributed to DTLN contamination. However, owing to the lower Salmonella CFUs from DTLNs of cull cattle, the generic pre-harvest interventions were predicted to cause a smaller reduction in the total CFU load in a production lot. Because there is a paucity of studies on the efficacies of specific interventions in reducing Salmonella in DTLNs or on carcass surfaces, we evaluated the impacts of all the applicable generic pre- or post-harvest interventions instead. This simplified approach is feasible since the ultimate purpose of this study is to compare the overall relative impacts of pre-and post-harvest interventions rather than specific intervention effects. For this purpose and from the perspective of model parsimony, although the specific approach has merits in providing better precision, it would increase model complexity and introduce additional parameters with large uncertainties (due to data gaps), which might increase the overall uncertainty and reduce the accuracy of the model (Zwietering, 2009). Similar modeling approach has been utilized in some previous risk assessment studies where the effectiveness of carcass interventions on the change of Escherichia coli O157:H7 prevalence and concentration were 16

18 the aggregate effect of specific decontamination events (Cassin, Lammerding, Todd, Ross, & McColl, 1998; Hurd & Malladi, 2012; USDA/FSIS, 2001). In addition, for post-harvest interventions, the generic intervention effect is a compilation or summation of the effects of different specific interventions regarding the sequences of their applications between evisceration and chilling and thus generally reflects the actual decontamination effects in post-harvest processing. Therefore, the generic approach was considered sufficient to answer the risk management question in this study. As for the pre-harvest interventions, the hypothetical interventions of different effectiveness levels were used to compare its relative impact with the post-harvest interventions. This is a strategy commonly employed in risk assessment studies to cope with data limitations when evaluating the effectiveness of different interventions (Cassin et al., 1998; Delhalle et al., 2009; Dodd, Sanderson, Jacob, & Renter, 2011). Although DTLNs have been found a major contributor to ground beef Salmonella contamination, there may be potentially alternate explanations for the results that need to be further explored before recommending appropriate intervention strategies. For example: There may be sources of Salmonella other than the external carcass surface and DTLNs which were not considered here. Cross-contamination of freshly-cut meat surfaces from environmental sources may occur during the fabrication stage, such as equipment surfaces, conveyor belts, cutting surfaces, knives, gloves, and aprons (Gill, Badoni, & McGinnis, 1999; Gill, Bryant, & Landers, 2003; Youssef, Badoni, Yang, & Gill, 2013). However, because of the scarcity of empirical data, we were not able to include these potential contamination sources in the model. Probably for the similar 17

19 reason, cross-contamination was not modeled in some other risk assessment studies for E. coli during beef processing (Cummins et al., 2008; Dodd et al., 2011; Signorini & Tarabla, 2009). Another potential source is the internal surface contamination owing to gut rupture during evisceration. However, since the incidence of gut rupture is rare, it was omitted in several risk assessment studies (Cassin, 1998; Signorini & Tarabla, 2009). Moreover, deep cuts in the carcass which may occasionally occur in the harvest process may protect Salmonella from some of the post-harvest interventions (Koohmaraie et al., 2012). Salmonella harbored in such cuts may not be detectable by surface sponge sampling method used in most studies. The effectiveness of carcass interventions was based on Salmonella lab test data and in-plant indicator bacteria data. Bacterial reduction estimated from these data might be greater than the actual Salmonella reduction caused by in-plant interventions in commercial operations, thus leading to underestimation of Salmonella concentration on post-intervention carcasses. However, the available carcass sampling data does indicate a very low prevalence and concentration of Salmonella at this stage (Barkocy-Gallagher et al., 2003; Brichta-Harhay et al., 2008). The validity of the model should be tested further against reported data. As data is lacking for both the total Salmonella CFUs in a production lot and for the relative impact of lymph node and carcass surface contaminations, the model validation was carried out in an indirect way, which involves calculating the total CFUs in a 2,000 lb production lot based on the Salmonella detection data reported by Bosilevac et al. (2009a). The study sampled 4,136 ground beef portions of 65 g each and the detection results could be categorized into 4 groups according to the levels of contamination, i.e., enrichment negative, enrichment positive and 18

20 enumeration negative, 2 to 4 CFU/g, and 40 CFU/g. Table 10 presents the input parameters for estimating the total Salmonella CFUs in a production lot, including the number of samples, the proportion of 65 g ground beef samples (reported as mean value), and the Salmonella CFUs per 65 g ground beef samples at each of the contamination levels. The uncertainty about the proportion of samples was simulated using the Dirichlet (3965, 163, 10, 2) distribution, which corresponded with the number of samples in each group. The number of Salmonella CFUs per 65 g was simulated using Uniform distributions. Summing up the Salmonella CFUs in each contamination level (calculated by multiplying the proportion of samples and Salmonella CFUs/65 g sample and by the number of 65 g portions in a 2,000 lb production lot, i.e., 2,000 lb/65g) resulted in the total CFUs in a production lot, which was estimated to be in the range of 3,393 to173,713 CFUs with a mean of 59,824 CFUs after simulation. The ground beef collected in Bosilevac et al. (2009a) had various percentages of lean meat (73% to 90%) from cull cattle and fat meat from fed cattle. Therefore, assuming the same ratios of lean meat from cull cattle to fat meat from fed cattle in this study, the resulting total CFU load in a production lot would generally fall in that calculated range and lean toward the lower end. There might be greater uncertainty about the cull cattle results due to the limited enumerable sample size of DTLNs as mentioned earlier. However, the model prediction does reflect the low level of cull cattle concentration data in the sampling surveys. In addition, the total CFU load (minimum of 3,393 CFUs) was substantially greater than the predicted CFU load originating from carcass surface per production lot, suggesting that another contamination source apart from carcass surfaces (i.e., lymph nodes) may be contributing significantly to the Salmonella load in a production lot Although the model prediction seems reasonable, further improvements are warranted in several fields. To begin with, the Salmonella prevalence at different processing points was related using linear regression models (such as the change of Salmonella prevalence from 19

21 hide to carcass during dehiding and on carcasses due to post-harvest interventions). While the linear fit is simpler, nonlinear models may provide a better fit to understand the bacterial transfer dynamics influenced by the complex beef processing system (Havelaar, Evers, &Nauta, 2008). Evaluating alternate nonlinear relationships (such as logistic regressions, nonlinear transfer ratios, and other nonlinear models) with more empirical data can improve model accuracy and predictive ability (Dodd et al., 2011; Smith, Fazil, & Lammerding, 2013). Furthermore, we assumed that contamination in DTLNs and on carcass surfaces were independent. Some previous serotyping investigations and challenge tests on the sources of DTLN contamination revealed that Salmonella are most likely introduced into DTLNs by crossing the host s integument transdermally through various pathways, such as transfer from cattle hides or environment via skin abrasions, biting flies, or diseases of the integument (Edrington et al., 2013a,b; Gragg et al., 2013a,b). There has been observed correlations between Salmonella prevalence on cattle hides, in cattle environment and in DTLNs (Gragg et al., 2013a). Considering that cattle hides are a common reservoir for Salmonella, it is not surprising that hides could be a common source of Salmonella to both DTLNs and carcass surfaces. However, the transmission of Salmonella from hides to DTLNs and to carcass surfaces are generally two independent events that occur at different stages of the cattle chain, i.e. the former mainly occurs during pre-harvest while the latter takes place during slaughter) Although we cannot completely rule out the possibility that Salmonella may enter DTLNs from environment during transport and lairage through similar transdermal pathways, the duration of infection is relatively very short as compared with that of preharvest (less than 24 20

22 hr during lairage and a few days at the max during transport and marketing (for cull cattle), versus several months during preharvest), and thus the infection during transport and lairage is not likely to have very much contribution to the prevalence and level change in DTLNs as compared with the preharvest infection. Therefore, we assumed the independence of contamination events on carcass surfaces and in DTLNs. Nevertheless, since Salmonella in DTLNs has recently emerged as an important food safety concern in the beef industry, this assumption is derived from published studies at the time of this analysis. As evidence accumulates that further elucidates the contamination mechanisms involved, the relationship between DTLNs and carcass surface contamination may be better characterized and quantified in the future. It is also worth noting that the model estimated contribution of Salmonella contamination to ground beef from trim originating from either all from fed cattle or all from cull cattle. In reality, notwithstanding, a good portion of ground beef in the U.S. is made by combining lean trim from cull cattle with fat trim from beef cattle to get the right lean: fat ratio desired (80:20; 90:10, etc). This is because cull cows (in particular dairy cows) do not have much fat and hence fat needs to be added from other sources. For future modeling work it would be meaningful to include mixing proportions of lean and fat trim in the model to get a better understanding of the downstream impact on Salmonella contamination of ground beef by the upstream trim sources We acknowledge some other limitations of the study. The analysis focused on estimating the mean Salmonella load and relative contribution of DTLN or surface contamination. Some of the sources of variability in the Salmonella load in a production lot, such as differences in 21

23 abattoir characteristics, cross contamination rates and effectiveness of antimicrobial interventions across different carcasses were not explicitly modeled. Studies have also shown a considerable variability in lymph node prevalence across different feedlots (Haneklaus et al., ). Occasionally, such variability can result in extremely contaminated production lots and ground beef samples (Bosilevac et al., 2009a). Therefore, the variability associated with model parameters will need to be exploited in future modeling effort with available data to improve model accuracy. Explicit modeling of all the sources of variability may also be beneficial for developing models to predict Salmonella prevalence in test portions of ground beef given the estimated CFU load in a production lot. Another limitation is that there were sparse or no published studies to inform some of the model parameters. For example, Salmonella concentration on pre-evisceration carcasses and the prevalence in DTLNs was estimated from a small number of studies. Furthermore, the model is representative of average values from all published studies and does not explicitly account for regional variations in prevalence. Given this, the average results from the model would not directly be applicable for predicting the relative contribution of DTLNs in specific beef production regions. With these caveats in mind, this study nevertheless provides valuable information for prioritizing control measures targeted at Salmonella contamination in ground beef, originating from beef carcass surfaces or DTLNs as modeled on currently available data. 476 Acknowledgements 22

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