A Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory. Madalyn Cioci & David Bael RAM/SWANA Conference October 16, 2018

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1 A Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Madalyn Cioci & David Bael RAM/SWANA Conference October 16, 2018

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4 Minnesota In-Boundary Emissions by Sector 10/26/2018 4

5 Consumption-Based GHG Emissions Inventory (CBEI) Counts emissions, wherever they occur, that are produced to satisfy Minnesotans consumption. Emissions generated out of state for goods and services consumed in Minnesota are included. Emissions generated in Minnesota for goods and services that are exported to be consumed elsewhere are not included. Meant to complement our in-boundary inventory 10/26/2018 5

6 In-boundary compared to consumption 10/26/2018 6

7 CBEI takes full life cycle into account (GHG) 10/26/2018 7

8 Results: Comparing the two inventories In-boundary inventory MMTCO 2 e Emissions produced in MN, exported in products or services 67.9 MMTCO 2 e Emissions produced in MN for in-state consumption; Fuel used directly by final consumers (households & gov) 71.9 MMTCO 2 e Emissions imported in products & services 61.2 MMTCO 2 e Consumption-based inventory MMTCO 2 e Total 2012 Emissions: MMTCO 2 e 10/26/2018 8

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10 10/26/2018 Easier to see citizen levers 10

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14 Estimated not measured The utility of the CBEI approach and the methodology has been well documented and replicated in many studies from city to national level. Uses standard economic Input-Output data (state, national, global) IMPLAN GTAP (Global trade accounting database) Uses MN and EPA emissions inventories This is estimation, not measurement but accepted as current practice. 10/26/

15 Use of the CBEI: What-if analysis Demand Modeler: How do changes in consumption in specific sectors or more broad consumption categories translate to changes in GHG emissions. IMPLAN Commodity Demand, Imports, Exports (Producer Terms), $US Million 2012 data (in 2010$) Run LCA Complete Run LCA Modeler MN 2012 Final Demand, by Institution CATEGORY SUBCATEGORY SECTOR Description Food and beverages Other food and agriculture 1 Oilseed farming Food and beverages Grains, baked goods, cereals, nuts 2 Grain farming Food and beverages Fruit and vegetables 3 Vegetable and melon farming Food and beverages Fruit and vegetables 4 Fruit farming Food and beverages Grains, baked goods, cereals, nuts 5 Tree nut farming Furnishings and supplies Lawn and garden 6 Greenhouse, nursery, and floriculture production Food and beverages Other food and agriculture 7 Tobacco farming Food and beverages Other food and agriculture 8 Cotton farming Food and beverages Other food and agriculture 9 Sugarcane and sugar beet farming Food and beverages Other food and agriculture 10 All other crop farming Other Other 11 Cattle ranching and farming Food and beverages Dairy 12 Dairy cattle and milk production Food and beverages Poultry and eggs 13 Poultry and egg production Food and beverages Other animal products 14 Animal production, except cattle and poultry and e Other manufactured goods Forestries, mills, paper 15 Forestry, forest products, and timber tract producti Other manufactured goods Forestries, mills, paper 16 Commercial logging Food and beverages Seafood 17 Commercial Fishing Other Other 18 Commercial hunting and trapping Services Other services 19 Support activities for agriculture and forestry Other Oil and gas 20 Extraction of oil and natural gas Other Other mining 21 Mining coal Other Other mining 22 Mining iron ore Restore Clean Zero 10/26/

16 Implications: CBEI reveals new levers for action Clothes Doubling the useful life of Minnesotans clothing. Furnishings & Supplies Doubling the useful life of Minnesotans home furnishings and supplies. Vehicles Increasing efficiency of Minnesotans personal vehicles by 15%. Each will reduce GHG by 2.5 million MT CO2-e. 10/26/

17 Implications and use of CBEI Better understanding. New data based communication options. Data to inform SMM priority actions and policies. 10/26/