ESTIMATES OF CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL RETURNS DUE TO CROPPING PATTERN CHANGES IN PUNJAB: THROUGH

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1 Bangladesh J. Agric. Econs. XVIII, 1(1995) : ESTIMATES OF CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL RETURNS DUE TO CROPPING PATTERN CHANGES IN PUNJAB: THROUGH Anju Sharma K.S. Dhindsa ABSTRACT In this study, changes in agricultural output (in value terms) resulting from changes in cropping pattern alone have been worked out for three different regions and Punjab State as a whole. This has been worked out by deducting changes brought about as a result of changes in yield, price and total cropped area from the total changes in agricultural output. Our analysis indicates that in absolute terms the total returns due to changes in cropping pattern of various crops increased by Rs crores over a period of 28 years i. e through Within various regions, south western region alone contributed percent of the total additional returns obtained at the state level (94.03 crores), while central region and sub-mountainous regions contributed and 6.39 percent respectively of the total additional returns. I. INTRODUCTION Growth of agricultural sector in Punjab economy has attracted a good deal of attention because it is one of the fastest growing sector of the state. The increase in agricultural output witnessed during the recent years in the state is the result of changes in several contributing factors, namely area under cultivation, yield rates, cropping pattern and prices of different crops. Cropping pattern in a particular period of time is expressed by showing the area under each crop as a percentage of total cropped area. A change in the cropping pattern thus would mean a change in the proportionate area under different crops. If, therefore, the proportion of area under a high value crop increases, it is likely to result in an increase in total returns even if there is no increase in the yield rates or price, provided there is no simultaneous decrease in the proportionate area under other equal or more valuable crops. Thus, a shift in the cropping pattern could be either advantageous or disadvantageous according to the nature of the shift. In the present study an attempt has been made to estimate the changes in agricultural output (in value terms) resulting from changes in cropping pattern alone in Punjab during through Such an idea is likely to give the direction and magnitude of cropping pattern changes which took place in the state during the last two and a half decades. The first author is a Lecturer in a College affiliated to GND University. The second author is a Professor and Head, Punjab School of Economics, Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar, Punjab (India). The authors gratefully acknowledge the comments of the two anonymous referees of the Journal on an earlier version of this paper.

2 22 The Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Economics Different economists have tried to use different methods in so far as the quantification of changes in agricultural returns due to cropping pattern changes is concerned. One such method was to work out the proportion of area under different crops at two points of time and then the difference in the proportion of each crop is given as a measure of changes in cropping pattern (Brattier, 1995). For instance, if the proportion of area under a crop is 10 percent of the total cropped area at point one and 15 percent at point two, the measure of cropping pattern change with regard to that crop is considered as (+5) percent. Such a measure gives an indication as to how the proportion of area under one or more crops has changed. But changes in cropping pattern can also be measured in value terms because any cropping pattern change would involve a number of crops with differing yields and prices. Another method adopted is to estimate first the rate of change in total output at constant prices and then to substract from this the rates of changes in the total sown area and in yield rates (Hanumantha, 1995). Here the approach is really erroneous in that the rates of change in the three variables are not additive. However in 1966, National Councial of Applied Economic Research conducted a study on cropping pattern in Punjab. In this study suitable methodology was used for the measurement of changes in agricultural output due to cropping pattern changes alone during the pre-green revolution period i. e through In the present study similar methodology, as used in the above study has been used. This study generates new information in so far as the measurement of changes in agricultural output due to changes in cropping pattern alone in Punjab State as a whole and its various agro-climatic regions during the post-green revolution period is concerned. For the purpose of inter-regional analysis, the state has been divided into three agroclimatic regions on the basis of rainfall, soil and predominance of cropping pattern. These regions are as follows : (a) (b) (c) Sub-Mountainous region : comprises districts of Gurdaspur, Hoshiarpur and Ropar. Central region : comprises districts of Amritsar, Jalandhar, Kapurthala, Ludhiana and Patiala. South-Western region : comprises districts of Ferozepur, Faridkot, Bhatinda and Sangrur. The analysis in the present study has been extended to various regions as well as state as a whole. Methodology is discussed in the following section. Results are presented in section III. Conclusions are drawn in the last section. II. METHODOLOGY In order to measure the changes in output of a crop over a period of time the following factors have been taken into consideration, (a) changes in total cropped area, (b) changes in cropping pattern, (c) changes in the price of the crop and (d) changes in the yield of crop.

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5 Estimates of Changes in Agricultural Returns : Sharma and Dhindsa crores over a period of 28 years i.e through This increase in returns due to cropping pattern changes was the aggregate result increase in proportionate area under some crops and the reduction in the proportionate area under certain other crops. Table 1 shows that within various crops the largest contribution in the total increase in returns came from rice, in case of which returns increased by as much as Rs crores i. e percent of the total additon in returns (Rs crores) contributed by various crops included in the study. Other crops that have appreciably contributed to the increase in returns are wheat (Rs crores), cotton American (Rs crores), moong (Rs.3.37 crores), potatoes (Rs crores) and sesamum (Rs crores). The positive contribution made by rice, wheat, cotton American, moong and potatoes was observed mainly due to large increase in area under these crops from 319, 1835, 220, 3.68 and thousand hectares in to 1969, , , 648, and thousand hectares respectiely in The yield level of these crops was also very high in the base period and has further shown significant positive, rate of growth during the period under study 4. All other crops included in the study have shown negative contributions towards the changed in returns due to fall in proportionate area under the crops. Maximum negative contribution in this respect came from gram (Rs crores), followed by sugarcane (Rs crores), maize (Rs crores), groundnut (Rs crores), cotton Desi (Rs crores)) bajra (Rs crores) etc. Other crops which have also shown fall in area under them like jawar, mash, massar, linseed, rapeesed-mustard and chillies also contributed negatively to the changes in returns (Table 1). The results of the study conducted by NCAER on' cropping pattern in Punjab revealed that total returns due to cropping pattern changes alone increased by Rs crores during through Rice, wheat, maize, gram, sugarcane, cotton American, cotton Desi, potatoes, groundnut and rapeseed mustard contributed positively to the changes in returns due to increase in area under them during over This shows that area under maize, gram, sugarcane, cotton Desi and groundnut which increased during the pre-green revolution has shown significant negative rates of growth during postgreen revolution period. A similar analysis of estimating the changes in agricultural returns due to cropping pattern changes was also done for various agro-climatic regions of the state. The results of the region-wise analysis presented in Table 2 show that in sub-mountainous regions, the total returns due to changes in cropping pattern of various crops increased by Rs crores, which was 7.51 percent of the total returns obtained from these crops at the base period (Rs crores). In this region, only two crops viz. rice and wheat contributed positively to the changes in returns, while all other crops which showed decline in proportionate area under them have contributed negatively. The increase in returns accounted for by rice (Rs crores) and wheat (Rs crores) were and percent respectively of the total increase in returns (Rs crores; see column 2 and 3 of Table 2)

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7 Estimates of Changes in Agricultural Returns : Sharma and Dhindsa 27 In the central region of the state, total returns due to changes in cropping pattern, increased by Rs crores i.e percent of the total returns received from various crops at the base period (Rs crores). The bulk of increase in this region was accounted for by rice (Rs crores), wheat (Rs ) crores), potatoes (Rs crores) and moong (Rs crores). The decline in proportionate area under all other crops resulted in decline in total returns and the decline in this respect was highest in case of maize (Rs crores) followed by sugarcane (Rs crores), groundnut (Rs crores), gram (Rs crores), cotton American (Rs crores), cotton Desi (Rs crores) and chillies (Rs crores) etc. (Table 2, Column 5). In the south-western region, total returns have shown an increase of Rs crores, which was percent of the total returns obtained from various crops at the base period (Rs crores). In this region, maximum addition to the agricultural returns was brought by increase in area under rice (Rs crores), followed by wheat (Rs crores), cotton American (Rs crores), moong (Rs crores), sesamum (Rs crores) and potatoes (Rs crores). On the other hand, maximum decline in returns came from gram (Rs crores), followed by sugarcane (Rs crores), bajra (Rs crores), maize (Rs crores), cotton Desi (Rs crores) etc. (Table 2, Column 8). A region-wise analysis of changes in returns due to changes in cropping pattern alone as discussed above shows that increase or decrease in returns from various crops were not of the same magnitude in all various regions to the increase/decrease in returns obtained from individual crops at the state level shows that among various regions, south-western region alone contributed percent of the total addition in returns obtained at the state level (Rs crores), while central and sub-mountainous regions contributed and 6.39 percent respectively of the increase in the returns (Table 3). Within various crops, the largest contribution in respect of increase in returns due to increase in area under rice at the state level came from central region (54.58 percent), followed by south-western region (37.35 percent) and sub-mountainous region (8.07 percent), while in case of wheat, south-western region contributed percent of the total increase in returns obtained from wheat in Punjab state as a whole, followed by central region (36.49 percent) and submountainous region (9.32 percent). In case of cotton American which also contributed appreciably to the increase in returns, the entire increase was contributed by south western region ( percent), whereas other two regions contributed negatively. In case of moong also, percent of increase in returns in the state came from south-western region followed by central region which contributed percent of the increase in returns, while submountainous region made negative contribution of 0.59 percent. In case of crops like maize, jawar, groundnut, sugarcane and chillies, maximum negative contribution towards the fall in returns from these crops came from central region followed by

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9 Estimates of Changes in Agricultural Returns : Sharma and Dhindsa 29 The overall analysis shows that only those crops have shown positive contribution to the increase in total returns, which have gained a large amount of area, while all other crops which have lost area under them have shown negative contributions to the changes in returns. But due to changes in cropping pattern, agricultural returns of sub-mountainous region and central region of the state could not show any significant increase which was mainly due to fall in area under crops like sugarcane, gram, maize, groundnut etc. which occupied a large amount of area in the base period. Thus, we see that increase in returns brought by increase in area under rice and wheat in these regions was neutralised by fall in area of other more valuable crops like sugarcane, chillies etc. In south-western region also, a fall in area under bajra, maize, gram and cotton Desi etc. contributed negatively but this region has shown significant increase in returns mainly because of significant increase in area under rice and wheat along with cotton American and moong which are also highly productive crops of this region. IV. CONCLUSIONS In the present study, changes in agricultural output (in value terms) resulting from cropping pattern changes alone have been estimated for three regions and Punjab state as a whole. On the basis of this analysis, it was found that within various regions south-western region alone contributed percent of the total additional returns obtained at the state level, while central and sub-mountainous regions contributed and 6.39 percent respectively of the total increase in returns. The contribution of various crops towards the increase in returns in various regions of the state show a definite pattern of change which took place in area under various crops during the period under study. The analysis reveals that farmers in Punjab seem to have acted quite rationally in shifting their cropping pattern in favour of rice and wheat, the guiding consideration for this being relative profitability. The fast increase in irrigation facilities providing basic conditions for cultivation of these crops, supported by fast increase in their yield as a result of rapid adoption of high yielding varieties of seeds and use of higher doses of fertilisers, have led to rapid increase in area under these crops in various regions of the state. Cotton American is an area specific crop confined mainly to south-western region of the state due to the availability of suitable soil and climatic conditions for the cultivation of this crop. Due to fast increase in area and profitability of cotton American, this crop has contributed significantly towards the increase in returns in south-western region only. The negative contribution made by gram, bajra, maize, groundnut, mash, massar etc. was mainly due to fall in area under these crops, which in turn was due to either negative or insignificant positive rate of growth of yield of these crops during Highly productive crop like sugarcane whose value productivity was about three times higher than rice and wheat taken together has shown significant negative contribution towards changes in returns in various regions of the state. The reason

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