DEVELOP A MEGA DAIRY FARM TO PRODUCE FRESH MILK

Transcription

1 DEVELOP A MEGA DAIRY FARM TO PRODUCE FRESH MILK Presented by: DONALD GRIBBLE, P.E.

2 DEVELOPING A MEGA DAIRY FARM Agenda: MEGA DAIRY FARM EXAMPLE DAIRY FARM DISCUSSION BASIS DAIRY FARM SWOT ANALYSIS MEGA DAIRY FARM MODEL MODEL FARM CASH FLOWS SUMMARY YOUR ROAD MAP TO DAIRY FARM SUCCESS, FROM CONCEPT TO REALIZATION 2

3 DONALD GRIBBLE BACKGROUND 4

4 IDFD: YOUR COMPLETE FARM DEVELOPMENT RESOURCE TOTAL DAIRY FARM SOLUTIONS FEASIBILITY DESIGN CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT 5

5 RECENT CLIENTS LARGEST SOUR CREAM PROCESSOR IN USA NEW 10,000 COW DAIRY FARM 3 OF THE 4 TOP PROCESSORS IN SAUDI NEWEST IS A 20,000 COW DAIRY FACILITY LARGE FRUIT PROCESSOR IN SE ASIA NEW 6,000 COW DAIRY FARM LARGEST MILK PROCESSOR IN EGYPT NEW 14,000 COW DAIRY FARM 6

6 RECENT CLIENTS NEW MILK PROCESSOR IN QATAR- NEW COMPLETE 10,000 COW DAIRY FARM SIGNIFICANT MILK PRODUCER IN USA MILKING A TOTAL OF 12,000 COWS ON 3 SITES MANY OTHERS INCLUDING: NESTLE, CARGILL, LAND O LAKES, FONTERRA, LONE STAR DAIRY PRODUCTS, MODERN INT., YILI MILK PROCESSING 7

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8 2400 Cow Dairy in Washington, USA

9 TYPICAL MEGA DAIRY FARM EXAMPLE DAIRY #6 10

10 TYPICAL MEGA DAIRY FARM EXAMPLE Complete Design by 11

11 TYPICAL MEGA DAIRY FARM EXAMPLE 10,000 MILKING COWS AT DAIRY #6 12

12 Freestall Housing

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15 Can We Dairy in the Tropics? Yes, You Can! 17

16 DEVELOP A MEGA DAIRY FARM? SUCCESSFUL PROCESSOR SHIPPING 500,000mt/YR, SHOULD THEY DEVELOP A NEW DAIRY FARM? S W O T 18

17 SWOT ANALYSIS (STRENGTHS) 1. LEADER OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATOR 2. HAVE FACTORY, TRAINED WORKERS, FACILITIES, MANAGEMENT, ETC 3. HAVE A GROWING MARKET, HIGH-DEMAND FOR PRODUCT 4. FINANCIAL STRENGTH 5. GOOD REPUTATION, HIGH-QUALITY PRODUCTS S W O T 19

18 SWOT ANALYSIS (WEAKNESSES) 1. YOUR MANAGEMENT TEAM LACKS EXPERIENCE TO DESIGN, BUILD, EQUIP MANAGE NEW DAIRY FARM FACILITY 2. YOUR COUNTRY LACKS DAIRY FARM CONSULTANTS, EXPERTISE/INFRASTRUCTURE A COMPLETELY NEW ENTERPRISE 3. UNSKILLED WORKFORCE IN LARGE CATTLE HUSBANDRY AND AGRICULTURE 4. LACK OF LAND, CROPS SUITED FOR DAIRY CATTLE 5. CLIMATE NOT CONDUCIVE TO MILK PRODUCTION TOO WET OR HOT S W O T 20

19 SWOT ANALYSIS (OPPORTUNITIES) 1. MORE FRESH MILK TO CAPTURE PREMIUM CUSTOMERS IN POWDER DOMINATED MARKET 2. HAVE GROWING DEMOGRAPHIC OF MIDDLE-CLASS, OR HIGH-END CUSTOMERS 3. MORE PEOPLE WITHS TASTE FOR FRESH MILK 4. SECURE A STABLE SUPPLY OF QUALITY FRESH MILK AT REASONABLE COST 5. ESTABLISH YOUR BRAND AS THE HIGHEST QUALITY OPTION S W O T 21

20 SWOT ANALYSIS (THREATS) 1. NEW COMPETITORS MAY ENTER MARKET TO FILL NEED 2. EXISTING COMPETITORS MAY GROW TO FILL MARKET NEED 3. YOUR COMPETITORS DEVELOP THE CAPABILITY TO MAKE FRESH MILK AND CAPTURE PREMIUM MARKET; LEAVING YOU WITH LOW COST MARKET AS ONLY GROWTH OPTION 4. YOU BUILD DAIRY ENTERPRISE, BUT IT IS NOT SUCCESFUL S W O T 22

21 IDFD-TYPICAL DAIRY FARM Hospital Heifers Housing Parlor 3000 Milk Cows, 3800 Total Cows Housing 23

22 3000 MILKING DAIRY FARM FACILITY OVERVIEW FREESTALL HOUSING FOR 3800 (MILKING PLUS DRY COWS) SPECIAL NEEDS AREA (MATERNITY, HOSPITAL, LAME ETC.) 80 STALL ROTARY PARLOR FEED STORAGE AND MIXING AREA WASTE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM 24

23 TYPICAL DAIRY FARM (3000 MILKING) 25

24 3000 MILKING DAIRY FARM 3 YEARS FACILITY WILL BE CONSTRUCTED & STAFF TRAINED 3 YEARS TO GROW HERD TO MILK 3000 COWS 3 YEARS TO ACHIEVE 30,000 MT PRODUCTION TOTAL COST APPROX $45M USD $45M USD 26

25 Normal U.S. Dairy Operations Numbers Total Cull Rate: 33% Actual Death Loss: 6% (Involuntary Culling) Average Lactations: 3 Calving Interval: 13 Months Age at First Calf: 23 Months High Quality Milk: SCC below 200,000

26 How Are You Culling Cows? Voluntary Culling You Choose Which Cow to Remove Involuntary Culling Cows Just Die, No Choice

27 MEGA DIARY FARM NORMS TYPICAL+ idfd ANNUAL ADULT CULL RATE (%): MILK PRODUCTION (LITERS/COW/DAY): CALVING INTERVAL (MONTHS): THESE ARE SLIGHT NORMAL IMPROVEMENTS NUMBERS TO ALL SEEN ON OF DEVELOPING THESE WILL HAVE FARMS DRAMATIC RESULTS WORLD ON WIDE YOUR DAIRY FARM! 29

28 DIRECT COST OF MILK PRODUCTION LABOR ANIMAL FEED MAINTENANCE UTILITIES SUPPLIES COW PROCUREMENT 5 YR NOTE & 5% VETERINARIAN FACILITY COST 25 YR NOTE & 5% OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT & TRAINING 30

29 GETTING TO 3000 MILKING $25,000,000 $20,000,000 MILK PRODUCTION ACHIEVES 30,000 TONS ANNUAL GROSS INCOME ADULT / HEIFER HERD ACHIEVE DESIGNED SIZE $15,000,000 $10,000, MILKING ACHIEVED $5,000,000 $- YR 1 YR 2 YR 3 YR 4 YR 5 YR 6 YR 7 YR 8 ANNUAL MILK INCOME ANNUAL ANIMAL INCOME (EXCESS HEIFERS) 31

30 DAIRY FARM LOAN STATUS $50,000,000 $45,000,000 $40,000,000 $35,000,000 $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $0 LOAN STATUS YR 1 YR 2 YR 3 YR 4 YR 5 YR 6 YR 7 YR 8 FACILITY DEBT ANIMAL DEBT ANIMAL DEBT RETIRED 32

31 MILK PRODUCTION COST $0.55 $0.50 $0.45 $0.40 $0.35 $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 $0.10 $0.05 $- MILK COST OF GOODS SOLD (COGS) / LITER YR 1 YR 2 YR 3 YR 4 YR 5 YR 6 YR 7 YR 8 ADULT FEED COST VETRINARY/ANIMAL CARE LABOR MILK SALES PRICE.41/LITER HEIFER FEED COST FACILITY OPERATIONS2 FACILITY/ANIMAL FINANCING PER KG OF MILK PRODUCED, MOST FACTORS REMAIN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR FINANCING 33

32 DAILY FEED RATION 22.2KG / DAY TMR RATION FOR 27KG PRODUCTION SOY MEAL OTHER GRAIN MINERAL CORN GRAIN CORN SILAGE GRASS/GREEN CHOP 34

33 DAILY FEED COST ESTIMATED $6.07USD/DAY FOR 27KG PRODUCTION OTHER GRAIN SOY MEAL MINERAL CORN GRAIN CORN SILAGE GRASS/GREEN CHOP 35

34 CUMULATIVE PROFIT/LOSS PROJECTIONS $35,000,000 CUMULATIVE MILK/HEIFER PROFIT/LOSS $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 LOSS/PROFIT TURNOVER AT YEAR 5 $5,000,000 $- $(5,000,000) YR 1 YR 2 YR 3 YR 4 YR 5 YR 6 YR 7 YR 8 CUMULATIVE MILK/HEIFER PROFIT 36

35 CUMULATIVE PROFIT PROJECTIONS 23% CULL RATE 33% CULL RATE 37

36 CUMULATIVE PROFIT PROJECTIONS! 38

37 DAILY ELECTRICAL USAGE ESTIMATED TOTAL 14,000 KWH/DAY COW HOUSING CALF/HEIFER HOUSING PARLOR TREATMENT PARLOR DAIRY SUPPORT WASTE PROCESSING 39

38 DAILY WATER USAGE ESTIMATED TOTAL 880,000 LITERS/DAY WASTE CLEANUP OPERATIONS COW CONSUMPTIO N HOLDING PEN FLUSH PARLOR CLEANUP CLEAN IN PLACE (CIP) HEIFER CONSUMPTION 40

39 SWOT ANALYSIS (WEAKNESSES) 1. YOUR MANAGEMENT TEAM LACKS EXPERIENCE TO DESIGN, BUILD, EQUIP MANAGE NEW DAIRY FARM FACILITY 2. YOUR COUNTRY LACKS DAIRY FARM CONSULTANTS, EXPERTISE/INFRASTRUCTURE A COMPLETELY NEW ENTERPRISE 3. UNSKILLED WORKFORCE IN LARGE CATTLE HUSBANDRY AND AGRICULTURE 4. LACK OF CROPS SUITED FOR DAIRY CATTLE 5. CLIMATE NOT CONDUCIVE TO MILK PRODUCTION TOO WET OR HOT S W THEY ARE NOW STRENGTHS!! O T 41

40 SWOT ANALYSIS (THREATS) 1. NEW COMPETITORS MAY ENTER MARKET TO FILL NEED 2. EXISTING COMPETITORS MAY GROW TO FILL MARKET NEED 3. YOUR COMPETITORS DEVELOP THE CAPABILITY TO MAKE FRESH MILK AND CAPTURE PREMIUM MARKET; LEAVING YOU WITH LOW COST MARKET AS ONLY GROWTH OPTION 4. YOU BUILD DAIRY ENTERPRISE, BUT IT IS NOT SUCCESFUL S W O T 42

41 IDFD: YOUR COMPLETE FARM DEVELOPMENT RESOURCE TOTAL DAIRY FARM SOLUTIONS FEASIBILITY DESIGN CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT 43

42 CONSTRUCTION DOCUMENTS Definition For The Contractor, Protection For The Owner. 44

43 CONSTRUCTION DOCUMENTS SHEETS OF DETAILS 6,000 + MAN HOURS OF WORK 8 + INTERNATIONAL TRIPS 6 + MONTHS OF EFFORT

44 Choose Your Dairy Designer Carefully Same Materials but Different Results 46

45 MEGA DAIRY FARM SUMMARY THERE ARE CHALLENGES, BUT THERE ARE AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS WORK WITH EXPERTS WHO CAN PROTECT YOUR INVESTMENT AND ADDRESS THE WEAKNESSES AND THREATS IDFD IS ONE SUCH TEAM TO SOLVE YOUR ISSUES FROM FEASABILITY THROUGH MANAGEMENT 47

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48 MAKE THIS A REALITY Complete Dairy Farm Solutions 2400 COWS IN WASHINGTON, USA 50

49 UPCOMING CONFERENCES UPCOMING IDFD CONFERENCE SINGAPORE- APRIL Full Days More Information: Contact Five-G Consulting at eng@fiveg.com 51

50 QUESTIONS COMPLETE DAIRY FARM SOLUTIONS 52