Vulnerability assessment modelling tools for the agriculture and water sectors

Transcription

1 Vulnerability assessment modelling tools for the agriculture and water sectors Workshop on CC vulnerability modelling tools December 2015, Yerevan, Armenia Dr. Elizabeth M. Strange, Climate Change Specialist Washington DC.

2 Model Evaluations DSSAT-CSM USAID Water DSS WEAP21 MOSAICC AQUACROP Discussion Wrap-up Day 2 Agenda

3 Key Considerations What is the purpose of the assessment How will it be used? What is of concern (e.g., food production, water supply)? How far into the future is of concern? What kind of output is needed? What resources are needed and available (e.g., money, expertise, data)

4 Additional Considerations for Clima East Exercise PC Windows-based Available at no cost Accessible Practical Data available Expertise available

5 DSSAT-CSM Exercises and Information about obtaining copy of program ut Widely-used software package Suite of 42 process-based crop models simulate growth, development and yield as function of soil-plant-atmosphere Supported by database management programs for soil, weather, crop management and experimental data, and by utilities and application programs. Uses simple shell to access all programs, tools and utilities Can be used used at farm, regional, and global levels

6 Source: Jones et al. (2003) The DSSAT cropping system model. European Journal of Agronomy 18:

7 Source:

8 Example of DSSAT in Climate Change Analysis Sutton, W. R., J.P. Srivastava, J.E. Neumann, A. Iglesias, and B. B. Boehlert Reducing the Vulnerability of Moldova s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options. World Bank Study. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: / License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 8

9 USAID Water DSS Information about availability GIS-based application developed for Armenia with support from USAID Climate Energy and Water (CEW) program in Yerevan Generates sophisticated hydrological, economic, and climate change models for rivers and water basins throughout Armenia

10 Source: USAID (2015) Clean Energy and Water Program Final Report. October 2015.

11 USAID Water DSS (cont d) Hydrological Model water balance, water quality assessment, water supply and demand, ecological flows, hydropower potential Climate Change Analysis Model historic trends and projections Economic Model cost-benefit analysis, optimization assessment of development scenarios

12 Examples of USAID Water DSS in Climate Change Analyses USAID CEW studies: Impacts of current and future water use on balance, depletion and recharge rates of ground water resources in the Ararat Valley. Vulnerability to climate change of water resources in the Vorotan Voghji and Meghriget Rivers (as free-standing components of the integrated Southern Basin Management Plan)

13 WEAP21 WEAP in 1-Hour in Tutorial ndex.asp?action=213 Widely-used software tool for water resources planning based on principle of water balance Operates as: Water balance database Scenario generation tool - simulates water demand, supply, runoff, streamflows, storage, discharge, instream water quality. Policy analysis tool Graphical drag-and-drop GIS-based interface Dynamic links to other models and software

14 Source:

15 Examples of WEAP21 in Climate Change Analyses Aleksanyan, A.S., S.Kh. Khudaverdyan, and A. Vaseashta Modeling River Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessments Due to Climate Change: Case Study of Armenia. Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 24: Ahouissoussi, N., J.E. Neumann, J.P. Srivastava, B. Boehlert and S. Sharrow Reducing Vulnerability of Armenia s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change. World Bank Studies. Washington, DC: World Bank. Ministry of Nature Protection of Republic of Armenia Vulnerability of Water Resources in the Republic of Armenia Under Climate Change. 15

16 MOSAICC Information on software availability and training needs mosaicc MOdelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change Four main components Climate - for climate scenario downscaling Crop - for simulation of crop yield (AquaCrop) Hydrology - for modelling of water available for irrigation (Stream 1.1) Economy - for economic impacts

17

18 Example of MOSAICC in Climate Change Analyses Ouraich, I., and W.E. Tyner Climate change impacts on Moroccan agriculture and the whole economy: An analysis of the impacts of the Plan Maroc Vert in Morocco. WIDER Working Paper 2014/083, April

19 AquaCrop Software and exercises: water/aquacrop.html Widely-used FAO crop water productivity model to simulate yield response to water Companion tool for wide range of users and applications, including yield prediction under climate change Component of MOSAICC

20 Source:

21 AquaCrop Inputs Source: Source: FAO AquaCrop Manual

22 Examples of AquaCrop in Climate Change Analyses Hunink, J., and P. Droogers Climate Change Impact Assessment on Crop Production in Uzbekistan World Bank Study on Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Agricultural Systems. FutureWater, The Netherlands. Droogers, P., and J. Hunink Assessment of Impact of Climate Change on Wheat in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Report FutureWater: 108. FutureWater, The Netherlands. Ahouissoussi, N., J.E. Neumann, J.P. Srivastava, B. Boehlert and S. Sharrow Reducing Vulnerability of Armenia s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change. World Bank Studies. Washington, DC: World Bank.

23 Contact Contact Dr. Elizabeth M. Strange