Climate Change Situation in South Asia

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1 Climate Change Situation in South Asia Azhar Qureshi Fellow, Cohort-5 LEAD House, Islamabad 14 February 2012 LEAD-Pakistan

2 Low level of awareness about adaptation measures Important Features CLIMATE CHANGE SA CONTEXT Home to 70% of rural population Per capita growth in agriculture 2% 60% labor force engaged in agriculture Agriculture represents only 22% of region s GDP Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Nepal net food importers Women own less than 5% of land Climate change impacts serious on rural poor with their rising population

3 CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDS IN SA Rainfall Decreasing BUT Irregular since 2005 Temperature Gradually increasing since many years Melting of Glaciers Overall Increasing Humidity Gradually increasing causing agri-diseases De-forestation Gradually increasing The scale and intensity of natural disasters increasing The scale and intensity of human induced disasters decreasing mainly due to awareness raising (In intervention areas)

4 GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE WHAT TRIGGERS ENHANCED GREENHOUSE EFFECT Deforestation Population growth Some farming practices and land-use changes Industrial gases from factories Burning natural gas, coal and oil Depletion of ozone layer

5 CLIMATE INDUCED IMPACTS

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7 Historical Trends of Temperature ( ) at Gilgit Source: Met Office

8 ource: IPCC, 2007 Himalayan glaciers are losing mass faster than European glaciers but slower than those in Alaska

9 VELOCITIES OF SELECTED KARAKORAM GLACIERS Glaciers Velocity (m/yr) Glaciers Velocity (m/yr) Baltoro 300 Hasanabad Batura 1,000 Kutiah Biafo 19 Minapin Chogolungma Passu 157 Fedehenko 169 Zemu 84 Ghulkin 117 Source: Wadia 1957 and Goudie et al. 1984

10 CHANGES IN FRESHWATER FLOW TO THE SEA IN PAKISTAN Period Yearly Average River flow to the sea (MAF/yr) Percentage change Winter Average

11 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRO- ECOLOGY AND FOOD Low productivity Low quality Loss of topsoil Loss of local crop varieties Loss of soils water holding, microorganism and productivity capacity Loss of floral and faunal genetic diversity Loss of adaptive capacity of mono cultural crops to change environmental conditions such as water stress, extreme temperature fluctuations and changed intensity of sunlight

12 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRO- ECOLOGY AND FOOD Unplanned and over grazing has led to degrading pastures The lowest parts, the river banks of the Indus are not cultivated due to flooding and will have to face many difficulties to construct irrigation channels.

13 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRO- ECOLOGY AND FOOD Floods, drought & cyclones damaging the land resulting in sluggish productivity of crops Floods & cyclones increasing crops diseases Extreme weather events posing serious threats to food security

14 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRO- ECOLOGY AND FOOD Heat-wave in subcontinent in 2005, reduced agricultural yields in affected parts by between 10 to 40% of the harvest of that year Gross per capita water availability in Pakistan will decline from 1350 m 3 /yr in 2001 to as low as 858 m 3 /yr in Less productivity causing low income and increasing the rate of poverty and failure of market mechanism both internal and external Loss of standing staple food and cash crops

15 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRO- ECOLOGY AND FOOD Male members of the households migrate to urban areas in search of jobs resulting in increased poverty.

16 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LIVESTOCK The livestock are at greater risk of disease. Increased diseases because of unpredictable rains, drought, etc. Increased mortality rate Low productivity of meat Low quality of milk and milk products

17 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INFRASTRUCTURE Damage to roads due to floods, erosion and landslides, etc Damage to bridges Damage to houses Damage to hotels Damage to school, colleges, universities, etc. Damage to hydro-power plants Damage to water supply lines Damage to communication towers

18 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FORESTRY Deforestation Increased pest activities due to change in temperature and rainfall Loss of vegetation due to land clearing Loss of forest fruits / NTFPs Loss of precious trees species Migration of wild animals and birds

19 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GLACIERS Melting water faster Inundations from time to time Glacier Lakes Outburst Floods Mountain Glaciers are being denuded Glaciers are shrinking

20 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN HEALTH Increasing frequencies of heat waves: recent analyses show that humaninduced climate change significantly increased. More variable precipitation patterns are likely to compromise the supply of freshwater, increasing risks of water-borne disease. Rising temperatures and variable precipitation are likely to decrease the production of staple foods in GBC, increasing the risks of malnutrition. Changes in climate are likely to lengthen the transmission seasons of important vector-borne diseases and to alter their geographic range potentially bringing them to regions which lack either population immunity or a strong public health infrastructure.

21 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER SUPPLY Polluted water Problems in getting fresh water Increased human and animal diseases

22 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISHERIES Increased temperature affecting biological properties and distribution affecting fish catches and food security Increased pollution level in the rivers and lakes Increased mortality rate in childhood Low growth rate Low stock of fish available in the market

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24 AGRICULTURE Impacts Local Adaptation Plans Decreasing crop yields Short-term Application of Integrated Crop Management (ICM) practices Application and promotion of biofertilizers Long-term Adopting agro-forestry practices Research on farming systems including soil, land and animal husbandry

25 AGRICULTURE Impacts Local Adaptation Plans Change in weather patterns affecting cultivating and harvesting Short-term Adjust planting and harvesting timetables to the prevalent conditions of past 3-4 years Monitor changes in crop behavior in relation to shift in weather patterns Long-term Undertake assessment of impact of changing weather patterns on traditional crops Support crop improving program

26 LIVESTOCK Impacts Short-term Local Adaptation Plans Long-term Deteriorating livestock health, productivity and reproductive efficiency Focus on locally adapted livestock breeds. Appropriate designs for livestock shelters Strengthen veterinary services More research on breeding practices

27 FORESTRY Impacts Short-term Local Adaptation Plans Long-term Deforestation Promoting low carbon lifestyles among forest communities Raising awareness about role of forests in protecting peoples livelihoods

28 FORESTRY Impacts Short-term Local Adaptation Plans Long-term Increased pest activities due to change in temperature and rainfall Apply IPM techniques Promote tree species with pest and diseases resistance straints Adopt multi-cropping Enhance the preservation and use of local tree species Loss of vegetation dues to land clearing Replant littoral vegetation to stabilize eroded lands Promote tree plant with local communities

29 FISHERIES Impacts Short-term Local Adaptation Plans Long-term Increased temperature affecting biological properties and distribution affecting fish catches and food security Promote alternative sources of protein for communities during low productivity periods Modify fishing efforts and allowable catches according to the state of the stocks Generate and maintain buffer stocks or gene banks of biogenetic resources for reintroduction into natural habitats similar to original surroundings.

30 FISHERIES Impacts Short-term Local Adaptation Plans Long-term Increased pollution level Continue monitoring for diseases Identify and document linkages between climate change and fish diseases Limited understanding of the long-terms trends in climate change especially related to global warming in fisheries Continue studies on climate change affecting fisheries Collect and document evidence of changes in fisheries to enable better understanding of climate change in the fisheries sector

31 INFRASTRUCTURE Impacts Short-term Local Adaptation Plans Long-term Deteriorating condition of human settlements Emphasis on selection of appropriate sites for construction Raising awareness about quality of the construction material Improving town planning strategies Improving early warning systems

32 INFRASTRUCTURE Impacts Short-term Local Adaptation Plans Long-term Weak roads and bridges Selecting suitable layout Selecting quality material for construction Public awareness, education and adopting best models Avoiding use of timber

33 GLACIERS Impacts Short-term Local Adaptation Plans Long-term Fast melting of glaciers Raise public awareness about impacts of global warming on glaciers Producing glacier protection and conservation literature Prepare documentaries to sensitize the community about the issue Media projection on the role of glaciers as lifeline for economic development Glaciers fertilization

34 WATER SUPPLY Impacts Short-term Local Adaptation Plans Long-term Negative impact of floods on water supply systems Stored water available at household level Community awareness and collective monitoring of the water supply system

35 WATER SUPPLY Impacts Short-term Local Adaptation Plans Long-term Prolonged dry spell may affect capacity of water supply to meet dry weather demand Incorporate rainwater harvesting into building designs Build capacity of the relevant department to effectively manage water distribution facility Regulate use of irrigation systems Conduct water conservation awareness workshops and community trainings

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37 LOCAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Main features Assets base Information and knowledge Innovation Institutional arrangements Decision-making skills Standard governance system Elements Human, social, financial, natural capitals System of data collection and analysis Ability to create new ideas, skills and technology Local institutions and informal organizations Ability for decision-making Transparent and accountable planning

38 There are two key ways of responding the challenges: Adaptation and Mitigation Both adaptation and mitigation measures are needed to cope with the impacts in different sectors. Need for development of local level adaptation strategies Development of controlled human interventions Changing cropping patterns in agriculture Reducing undesirable human interventions in forests, on glaciers, wetlands and pastures Suitable Micro-strategies to promote adaptation in different sectors to climate change is needed to reduce the average rate of poverty. Managing human population and changing lifestyles of humans as population, environment and poverty have a nexus. Dealing with long-term environmental impacts/disasters