Are Healthy Alternatives Available for All? Some Insights From An Agricultural Economics Perspective

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1 Are Healthy Alternatives Available for All? Some Insights From An Agricultural Economics Perspective Stephen Vosti UC Davis Team Agricultural Issues Center USDA (NRI-CSREE # ) ECOR Workshop on Poverty and Obesity, March 27 Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics

2 Overview of Presentation Availability How we think about it and some measures of it Historical record, driving forces, and one smoking gun Alternatives How we think about them Food Choices Where Availability and Alternatives Meet Role of Public Policy in Changing Food Choices Special attention paid to the Food Stamp Program Parting Thoughts Time/income constraints Relative poverty Fat traps Positive deviance approach

3 Availability Economic Determinants of Food Availability Resources available -- income & time Product options Relative prices

4 Economic Availability of Food and Other Goods Other Goods Budget Line Increases in Income and Reductions in Prices Increase the Size of the Available Basket Available Basket Food

5 Trend In Real Income Is Positive

6 Real Wages for Females Have Increased Since the 197s, but Not for Males

7 Poverty Rates Are Flat Since the Early 198s, Number of Poor Has Trended Upward Since Then

8 Changes in Food Prices What We Know Driving Forces

9 Nominal Commodity Prices Received by Farmers Have Increased 6 5 Price Index (1949=1) Fruit and nut crops Veget ables Field crops Nur. & greenhouse Livestock Specialty crops Source: Alston, J. M. and P. G. Pardey. 26. Public Funding for Research into Specialty Crops. Paper Prepared for the CAL-MED Workshop, USDA ERS

10 14 Real Commodities Prices Received By Farmers Have Generally Declined 12 Price Index (1949=1) Fruit and nut crops Vegetables Field crops Nur. & greenhouse Livestock Specialty crops Source: Alston, J. M. and P. G. Pardey. 26. Public Funding for Research into Specialty Crops. Paper Prepared for the CAL-MED Workshop, USDA ERS

11 Real Prices Received by Farmers Have Fallen, But Unevenly Across Crop Types.% Average Annual Rates of Decline (percentage) -.5% -1.% -1.5% -2.% Nursery & greenhouse Vegetables Fruit and nut crops Specialty crops Livestock -2.5% Field crops Source: Alston, J. M. and P. G. Pardey. 26. Public Funding for Research into Specialty Crops. Paper Prepared for the CAL-MED Workshop, USDA ERS

12 Prices Paid By Consumers Have Also Generally Fallen, but Less Swiftly Than Commodity Prices Consumer Prices for Eggs Deflated by CPI (food at home) Consumer Prices for Ground Beef Deflated by CPI (food at home) $/doz $/lb Eggs, Grade A Large Ground Chuck, USDA Choice Cons.Food_Prices!$N$7, 1% Beef Consumer Prices for Chicken deflated by CPI (food at home) Consumer Prices for White Sugar Deflated by CPI (food at home) $/lb $/lb Chicken, w hole, fresh Sugar, w hite, all sizes

13 Almost All Consumer Prices for Foods Have Fallen, Some More Swiftly Than Others White Bread:. Rice: -.29 Pasta: -.2 Lettuce: -.9 Tomatoes: +.4 Carrots: -.9 Potatoes:. Bananas: -.13 Apples: -.9 Oranges:. Grapefruit: -.4 White Sugar: -.24 Butter: -.13 Statistics report proportional changes in real prices over : Data sources USDA Milk: -.11 Cheese:-.33 Turkey: -.26 Chicken: -.12 Eggs: -.19 Beef: -.21

14 Food Prices in Terms of the Wage Rate in Manufacturing Have Fallen 12-Item Food Basket (6% of the historical price) 1955: 3 hours* 1997: 1.75 hours 3-Pound Chicken (4% of the historical price) 1958: 35 minutes 1997: 14 minutes Soft Drink (53% of the historical price) 195: 2.8 minutes 1997: 1.5 minutes Pizza (88% of the historical price) 1958: 57 minutes 1997: 5 minutes *Number of hours of work in the manufacturing sector required to purchase each item, by year. Source: Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas Texas

15 Factors Determining Food Price Trends Agricultural Research and Development Productivity Increases Returns to land, labor, and total inputs Smoking Guns Commodity policies E.g., corn program

16 Public Sector and Private Sector Trends in Agricultural R&D Spending 35 Total Federal and State Spending on Ag. R&D ( ) Total Private Sector Spending on Ag R&D ( ) mil. $ mil. $ Total Ag. R&D Spending Private Ag R&D Spending

17 Trends in Aggregate Agricultural Productivity Index of Land Productivity (1977=1) 16 Index of Labor Productivity (1977=1) Land Productivity Labor Productivity 3 Total Factor Productivity Index (1948=1) TFP

18 Trends in Crop/Product Productivity Average Yield of Corn Avg. Corn Yield Milk Production per Cow bush./acre lbs./cow Milk per Cow

19 One Smoking Gun Trends in Consumption of Corn Sweeteners Avg. Kcalories/person/day Corn sweeteners

20 The Suspected Culprit Payments to Corn Producers Support to Corn Producers -- Absolute 12, Millions USD (current) 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, The Real Culprit Productivity Growth in Corn -2, III. Producer Support Estimate (PSE) 1. Based on unlimited output C. Payments based on area planted D. Payments based on historical 14 entitlements E. Payments based on input use E. Payments based on input use G. Payments based on overall farming income 12 Average Yield of Corn bush./acre Source: OECD Avg. Corn Yield

21 What We Don t Know About Changes In Food Prices Changes in Product Availability E.g., seasonality of availability Changes in Product Characteristics E.g., taste, shelf-life, nutritional value

22 Consumer Prices for Oranges Deflated by CPI (food at home).9 Prices Paid By Consumers for Some Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Seem to Trend Upwards $/lb Oranges, Navel Oranges, Valencia 24 Consumer Prices for Strawberries Deflated by CPI (food at home) $/12 oz Straw berries, Dry pint

23 But The Data Can Be Very Spotty: Strawberries Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan

24 Controlling for Seasonality, Prices May Indeed Decline June Strawberry Prices (BLS data) Price $ per dry pint (12oz) y = -.89x R 2 = Feb Strawberry Prices (BLS data) Price $ per dry pint (12oz) y = -.3x R 2 =

25 Economics of Alternatives Consumer Preferences Determine the Trade- Offs Consumers Are Willing to Make

26 Alternatives In the Eyes of Consumers Healthy Foods Trade-Offs Acceptable to Consumer A Trade-Offs Acceptable to Consumer B Unhealthy Foods

27 Food Choices Where Availability and Alternatives Meet Determinants of Food Choices Availability Income Product options Relative prices Alternatives Consumer preferences

28 Faced With Identical Incomes and Relative Prices, Food Choices Can Differ Greatly Healthy Foods Consumer A Fat Taxes May Not Be Sufficient To Move Consumer B to Consumer A s Diet Healthy Food A Budget Line Healthy Food B Unhealthy Food A Unhealthy Food B Consumer B Unhealthy Foods

29 Public Policy Instruments for Changing Food Choices Change Incomes Targeted groups Poor, children -- WIC Special currencies Poor Food Stamp Program Change Relative Prices Tax fat foods Make healthy foods cheaper Change Product Options E.g., allowable foods for the Food Stamp Program Change Food Preferences Revised USDA Pyramid and other ad campaigns No Policy Action Is Costless Some are more effective and more cost effective than others

30 A Policy Experiment: Changing the List of Allowable Foods in the Food Stamp Program Proposed Changes Eliminate unhealthy foods Examining Proposed Changes through an Ag Econ Lens Effects on demand for healthy and unhealthy foods For FSP participants and others Supply response by farmers and the food industry Short, medium and long term Combined demand/supply effects on food choices Possible implications for nutrition outcomes For FSP participants and others Possible implications for participation in the FSP

31 Parting Thoughts Time & Income Constraints Combine to Limit Available Food Options Relative Poverty Rather Than Absolute Poverty May Be Important in Understanding Behavior and Crafting Anti-Obesity Policy Some Obese Individuals May Be Caught in Fat Traps that Are Difficult to Escape Finding and Understanding Success Stories (Positive Deviance Approach) May Help Guide Food Policy

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