Climate Services for Agriculture: Empowering Farmers to Manage Risk and Adapt to a Changing Climate in Rwanda

Transcription

1 Climate Services for Agriculture: Empowering Farmers to Manage Risk and Adapt to a Changing Climate in Rwanda Annual Summary and Quarterly Progress Report July-September 2016

2 Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture Year- 1 Summary of Accomplishments Design phase activities started in July 2015, and included development and approval of project documents, hiring Kigali-based project personnel, contracting partners (IRI, ILRI, Univ. Reading), desktop review, stakeholder consultation and district selection workshops, and Year-1 planning workshop. The project was launched publically on 23 March, although Outcome 3 implementation started earlier (December). The majority of effort in Year 1 focused on a strong start to Climate Services for Farmers (Outcome 1) and Climate Information Provision (Outcome 3). Under Outcome 1, implementing climate services in 4 target districts started with PICSA training of 31 senior staff from Meteo Rwanda, RAB, CIAT and collaborating NGOs, with the goal of developing a core team of expert trainers. This was followed by two parallel sessions that trained 63 (33% female) Farmer Promoters, SEDOs and Sector Agronomists in the PICSA approach. The trained intermediaries then rolled out the PICSA training with 2559 farmers (48% female) in the 4 districts. An additional 1-day workshop trained many of the expert trainers to interpret and communicate downscaled seasonal forecasts for the 4 pilot districts. From a survey of 206 participating farmers (46% female), >97% of respondents said that, as a result of the information and training they received, they were more confident about decision-making, expected to improve food security and income, saw farming more as a business, and felt better prepared to cope with bad climatic seasons. Eighty-three percent had shared the information, each with an average of 14 peers (8 female) outside of their households, indicating that aspects of the information reached an estimated 29,736 households beyond those directly trained. Climate service delivery channels expanded to include piloting mobile phone-based communication with the nfrnds cloud-based mobile platform, development of climate service radio programming, and partnering with MINAGRI-AICP to develop and share educational and communications products. Work under Outcome 2 focused on consultations with potential government and institutional users to understand their needs and explore partnership. Discussions started with a consultation workshop with 40 representatives from RAB, Meteo Rwanda, MINALOC, ACRE Africa, Safe, CRS and others. New tools to improve planting date analyses and recommendations, and water balance tools to analyze and forecast impacts of drought on crop production, were identified as priorities for RAB and MINAGRI. Tool development work was initiated for both. Partnership discussions with USAID s PSDAG project will strengthen connections to insurance and other private sector actors. Under Outcome 3, the project strengthened Meteo Rwanda capacity to provide climate information for the agricultural sector, through: training and education, improvement of data, expansion of Maprooms, and downscaling seasonal forecasts. Meteo Rwanda staff developed skills to generate merged historical time series, and to exploit their online derived information. A plan was developed to send Meteo Rwanda staff abroad for MSc programs and short training courses. The existing decadal merged data were updated, and a daily version was developed. The new daily version has enabled the creation of new climate information products such as climatological wet and dry spells, which are of interest to the agriculture sector. Work was initiated on design of a prototype Maproom for growing season onset date, in collaboration with ICPAC. Initial development of seasonal forecasts downscaled onto the ENACTS 4km grid, provided experimental September-December season forecasts for use with farmers in the initial 4 pilot districts. Under Outcome 4, key institutions for the Project Advisory Committee were identified, but implementation was deferred to Year 2, after completing ToR, and reviews of relevant cross-ministerial structures in Rwanda and climate service governance elsewhere. An M&E baseline survey, that covered 3046 farming households from 180 villages across Rwanda s 30 districts, will be used to quantify changes in farmers perception of risk and coping strategies, access to and use of climate information, and influence of climate services on livelihoods. A parallel, bottom-up M&E protocol is follow up on farmers involved in the PICSA process.

3 Progress During the Reporting Period This report, submitted to USAID by CCAFS on behalf of the consortium of project partners, summarizes progress from July to September Achievements by Outcome Outcome 1: Climate Services for Farmers The PICSA approach has been implemented with farmers in four districts (Burera, Ngorero, Nyanza and Kayonza). The initial training of expert trainers, reported in the previous quarter, was followed by two parallel sessions (covering the four districts) in which a combination of CIAT staff and expert trainers trained 63 (33% female) Farmer Promoters, Social Economic Development Officers (SEDOs) and Sector Agronomists in the PICSA approach. Following this training, the trained extension staff and Farmer Promoters rolled out the PICSA training with 2,559 farmers in the four districts. Of these farmers, 48% (1,231) were women. Effectiveness of the communication process was assessed by a survey of 206 farmers (46% female) who had participated in training and planning meetings facilitated by trained extension staff and Farmer Promoters. It was carried out at the start of September 2016 by a team of ten enumerators who used tablets and ODK software to complete the survey in five days following a pilot to test the questionnaire. As detailed in the Success Story below, results show overwhelmingly positive response to the training received, and a multiplier effect that reach an estimated 29,736 farm households through farmer-to-farmer communication, or 32,295 farm households total. A one-day workshop was organized on the 2nd of October 2016 to train 25 expert trainers from Meteo Rwanda, RAB and the 4 pilot districts to interpret and communicate downscaled seasonal forecasts. The workshop supplemented the earlier PICSA training with training in a participatory process for communicating the downscaled probabilistic forecasts with farmers, and helping them incorporate it into their decision-making. New partnerships have enabled the project to expand the range of communication channels that deliver climate services to rural communities. The project initiated a partnership with the Agricultural Information and Communication Program (AICP) a communication system of MINAGRI that produces and disseminates education and advisory services to farmers and other stakeholders in the agricultural sector. The collaboration with AICP will focus on: integrating climate information into AICP materials and communication channels; building capacity and communication processes around planned tools for, e.g., food production monitoring and forecasting; and developing innovating communication processes such as video/radio dramas. From June to September, five programs were aired on Radio Huguka with content exclusively related to climate services for agriculture. On average, 30 listeners provide input into each program via live phone calls or social media. Listener concerns are either addressed by expert panellists during the program, or directed to the project team and its partners (RAB, Meteo Rwanda) for response. Radio Huguka covers 60% of the country. The project also initiated work with nfrnds a cloud-based information service and software provider to develop an ICT-based system for communicating climate-related information and 1

4 advisories with farmers. Around 1,500 farmers have accessed weather and climate information provided through the project, through the nfrnds mobile cloud platform. Users can access services via a standard mobile phone, with no need for mobile data services. Outcome 2: Climate Services for Government and Institutions During the reporting period, consultations identified tools to improve planting date analyses and recommendations, and water balance tools to analyze and forecast impacts of drought on crop production, were identified as priorities for RAB and MINAGRI. Tool development work was initiated for both. An 8 July Government of Rwanda Cabinet resolution requested responsible institutions and other partners to find sustainable solutions to the problem of reoccurring food shortage due to erratic rainfall in the Eastern Province, including the use of climate-related early warning information. A meeting was planned for early October to develop a concept note in response. Recognizing the usefulness of soil water balance tools for analyzing, monitoring and forecasting the impacts of rainfall deficits on crop production, staff from RAB and CIAT met for 3 days to explore the development of Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) tools to estimate crop performance based on the availability of water to the crop during a growing season. The project team proposed adapting the soil water balance functions already developed in the IRI Data Library, for use in Rwanda. Discussions with IRI staff clarified data requirements, and identified regional sources of improved soil data. Partnership discussions initiated with USAID s PSDAG project identified opportunities to strengthen connections to insurance and other private sector climate service users. Outcome 3: Climate Information Provision Tufa Dinku (IRI) developed an initial daily merged rainfall data set in early July. John del Corral (IRI) conducted training for Meteo Rwanda staff July. The training included understanding of ENACTS data, the Data Library, maproom, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). He also installed the ENACTS daily rainfall dataset and maproom, and created a backup of the Data Library system for emergency recovery situations. Asher Siebert (IRI) visited Meteo Rwanda in August to train and work with meteorologists on the development and testing of new, experimental seasonal forecasts downscaled onto the ENACTS gridded rainfall data; and to initiate analyses of characteristics of the historic climate based on the gridded data. During the visit, Meteo Rwanda staff and Dr. Siebert developed experimental downscaled forecasts for the September-December growing season, in probability-of-exceedance format, for the 4 pilot districts, based on ENACTS gridded historical data. The resulting forecasts and corresponding historic time series were provided to RAB, Meteo Rwanda and district agricultural staff at the 2 September training workshop led by Jim Hansen and Desire Kagabo. The development and testing of a downscaled seasonal forecast system will continue through a visit of Meteo Rwanda staff to IRI in November. Outcome 4: Climate Services Governance A review of 3 case studies (India, Mali, Jamaica) of national climate service governance processes is advanced but not yet finalized. Monitoring and evaluation Under the ICRAF component, the individual household questionnaire was finalized in August 2016, in consultation with project team members at CIAT and IRI. This questionnaire includes sections on climate risk awareness and coping mechanisms, awareness of climate information, 2

5 access and use of climate information, behavioral change, perceived impact, and households assets. An ODK platform has been produced from the Word version of this questionnaire. The training of the enumerators including a field-testing of the instruments has been led by CIAT from September The survey, implemented from 26 September to 12 October, sampled 3046 farmer households from 180 villages across all 30 of Rwanda s districts. Sampling was done in collaboration with the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) who provided the latest sampling frame and sample selection. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to generate the survey sample. In each district, 2 sectors were randomly selected and in each sector 3 villages were randomly selected. The population consisted of farmers (livestock and crops), men and women household decision makers, as well as decision makers in climate. Project Management and Administration In addition to regular communication via and Skype, the Project Leader (James Hansen) and Kigali-based project team had face-to-face project management meetings in Kigali, 3 September. ICRAF s contract for the baseline survey and project M&E was delayed while ToR and survey protocol were being negotiated, and are still being processed through CIAT as of 30 September. Project Outputs Climate information, tool and capacity development Annual work plan for Year 2, for IRI-Meteo Rwanda collaboration. Sixty-three additional professional intermediaries and Farmer Promoters (33% female) trained in the PICSA methodology farmers (48% female) trained and facilitated in the PICSA process. Participated in development of a plan for short- and long-term training for Meteo Rwanda staff. New version of the Climate Data Tools (CDT) installed for all Meteo Rwanda trainees. Quality-controlled station data at daily time scale. (This had previously been done at decadal time scale.) Updated dekadal rainfall data from 1981 to 2015, and dekadal temperature data from 1961 to Merged daily rainfall time series ( ). Updated Meteo-Rwanda Maprooms: Downscaled seasonal climate prediction model and preliminary skill statistics; and experimental downscaled September-December season seasonal forecasts for the four pilot districts. Daily Climate Analysis Maproom, and training of Meteo Rwanda Staff. This uses the new daily rainfall time series data, and provides analyses such as number of rain days, and probably of dry/wet spells. 3

6 Reports and publications del Corral J ENACTS, Data Library, Maproom and GIS Training at Rwanda Meteorological Agency, Kigali, Rwanda, July CCAFS Workshop Report. Copenhagen, Denmark: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Nyasimi M, Radeny M, Hansen J Review of Climate Service Needs and Opportunities in Rwanda. CCAFS Working Paper no Copenhagen, Denmark: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Nsengiyumva G, Kagabo DM, Birachi E, Hansen JW Planning workshop for Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture project, March CCAFS Workshop Report. Copenhagen, Denmark: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Siebert A, Kagabo DM, Vuguziga F Training and Development of Downscaled Seasonal Forecasts for Pilot Districts, Kigali, Rwanda, August CCAFS Workshop Report. Copenhagen, Denmark: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Nsengiyumva G, Kagabo DM, Birachi E Joint launch of the Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) program of Rwanda Meteorology Agency and the USAID Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture project, Kigali, Rwanda, March CCAFS Workshop Report. Copenhagen, Denmark: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Nsengiyumva G, Kagabo DM, Birachi E Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture project workshop with high-level key partners for pilot sites (districts) identification, Kigali, Rwanda, February CCAFS Workshop Report. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Kagabo DM, Hansen J, Training workshop on understanding, communicating and using the downscaled seasonal forecast, Kigali, Rwanda, September CCAFS Workshop Report. 1 CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Prepublication draft. Nsengiyumva G, Kagabo DM, Clarkson G, Dorward P, PICSA training workshop - training of specialist trainers, Nyamata, Rwanda, June CCAFS Workshop Report. 1 CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Prepublication draft. Nsengiyumva G, Kagabo DM, Clarkson G, Dorward P, PICSA training workshop - training of Sector Agronomists, SEDOs and Farmer Promoters, Muhanga, Rwanda, July CCAFS Workshop Report. 1 CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Prepublication draft. Clarkson G, Dorward P, Kagabo DM, Nsengiyumva G, Initial results from PICSA M&E in four pilot districts in Rwanda. University of Reading. Unpublished project report. 1 Draft CCAFS Workshop Report, to be published online once finalized. 4

7 Kagabo DM, Nsengiyumva G, Report on potential partnerships of the Rwanda climate services for Agriculture project. CIAT. Unpublished project report. Birachi E, Coulibaly J, Baseline Survey Overview. CIAT/ICRAF. Unpublished project report. Communication and engagement News blog: Building capacity of intermediaries to avail climate services to farmers. Challenges and Corrective Actions The nation-wide farm household baseline survey was completed later than expected, in part because the key researcher at ICRAF was on maternity leave during the M&E Design Workshop (June) and the roughly two months that followed. The survey was initiated in September, but completion and analyses have been pushed into Year 2. We do not expect this to have an adverse effect on the ability to monitor progress or evaluate project impacts. The survey instrument proved to be more complex and time consuming than ideal. Efforts will be made to streamline planned mid-term and final surveys, while ensuring comparability with the baseline. Sequencing challenges resulted in using station data rather than ENACTS gridded data for the PICSA training. A daily version of the merged gridded data was produced in early July, just before the second round of PICSA training. However, because it had not yet been tested, and because of an apparent location mismatch with downloaded gridded data, the project team decided to use station data, despite the major gaps. The decadal gridded data were verified against the station data, and unanticipated inconsistencies were discovered in the new daily gridded data set. The dekadal and daily versions of the data set will be improved, and all concerns about using merged gridded data sets in the PICSA process should be resolved, during the next quarter. The PICSA training materials were not adapted to use the downscaled seasonal forecasts, in probability-of-exceedance format, on time for the September-December growing season (season A-2017). James Hansen provided a supplemental one-day training and planning meeting for Meteo Rwanda, RAB and district agricultural staff most part of the expert trainer group to introduce the new experimental forecasts, and a participatory approach to communicating the downscaled probabilistic forecasts with farmers, and helping them incorporate it into their decision-making. However, with the short lead-time and lack of integration with the earlier PICSA training, communication of the seasonal forecast with farming communities was apparently weak. The Project Leader will work with University of Reading and the team at CIAT-Rwanda to ensure that the new format and process are fully integrated into the PICSA manual, and training and planning processes, in Year 2. Planned Activities for the Next Reporting Period Outcome 1: Climate Services for Farmers Under outcome 1, PICSA approach will be scaled out in the six new districts as well as consolidating the PICSA process in the four pilot districts. In the six new districts PICSA will follow a similar process to the successful piloting in year 1. In the 4 districts, PICSA 5

8 approach will be consolidated and will involve a series of refresher trainings, planning and review meetings and monitoring visits from CIAT staff. Farmer Promoters will be trained by the expert trainers and supported by CIAT and University of Reading staff. The six districts will be covered by between three and six workshops which will be in advance of Season A. Each district will receive support visits from CIAT staff to monitor progress before they are involved in a planning and review meeting that will provide the opportunity for reflection, feedback and the presentation of the seasonal forecast for Season A. Under this process, new partners in the projects will be contracted to roll out the PICSA approach across several districts. At the end of season A 2017, an M&E will involve a quantitative survey of more than 200 households randomly selected within the four districts and qualitative case studies to better understand the detailed processes of farmer decision making and information use following the PICSA trainings. Probability-of-exceedance tool will be developed for farmers and incorporated into PICSA process and training materials. Communication tool (s) will be developed in partnership with local and international NGO partners to support dissemination of climate services information to farmers in the 10 districts. Outcome 2: Climate Services for Government and Institutions Under Outcome 2, the following activities will be implemented in the following quarter: Follow up with MINAGRI on climate information and early warning as a response to the food security crisis in Eastern Rwanda. Develop and test soil water balance Maproom tools. Develop and test Maproom tools for analyzing growing season onset and optimizing planting date. Implement institutional capacity baseline instrument. Outcome 3: Climate Information Provision Under Outcome 3, IRI will implement the following activities to build the capacity of Meteo Rwanda; and refine data, forecast, and climate information products in response to user needs: Build capacity of Meteo Rwanda staff to provide innovative climate services, through graduate education and international training visits. This will be co-led by IRI, Meteo Rwanda and CIAT-Rwanda, and result in trained Meteo Rwanda staff and at least 3 Meteo Rwanda staff beginning MSc programs. Refine gridded climate data products at Meteo Rwanda. This work, implemented by Meteo Rwanda and IRI, will produce improved climate data products (rainfall and temperature). Develop and test downscaled seasonal forecast for seasonal rainfall total, onset and session, dry and wet spells; and experimental monthly forecasts. The work will be implemented by Meteo Rwanda and IRI, in collaboration with ICPAC. Develop an expanded suite of online Maproom tools and products for agriculture at Meteo Rwanda, in collaboration with IRI, CIAT-Rwanda and other relevant stakeholders. Conduct operational research to improve understanding of Rwanda s climate and its predictability. The work will be implemented by Meteo Rwanda and IRI. 6

9 Outcome 4: Climate Services Governance Finalize and publish the review, in progress, of case studies of climate services governance structures. Develop Terms of Reference for Project Advisory Committee. Identify and recruit Project Advisory Committee members. Monitoring and Evaluation Data processing, analysis and publication of results from PICSA M&E. Analyze and publish baseline survey results. Baseline survey results validation workshop. Administer PICSA M&E questionnaires in 4 pilot districts at the end crop of the cropping season. Develop and define (with partners) the content of climate services information to be delivered to farmers before the next cropping season starts. Annual Planning Annual planning workshop tentatively December. Capacity Development Follow up the capacity building for both short training and post-graduate studies for RAB and Meteo Rwanda staff. Progress on Gender The face-to-face communication process, implementing the PICSA approach within the Twigiri Muhenzi structure, appears to be nearly equally effective at reaching female and male farmers. Forty-eight percent of the farmers who were directly reached by the PICSA process, through trained intermediaries, were women. From an initial survey, designed to monitor the effectiveness of the PICSA process, that equal proportions of male and female respondents (83%) say that they shared information with their peers, but this farmer-to-farmer communication reaches more female than male farmers. Accounting for this multiplier effect, we estimate that 56% of farmers who have received information directly and indirectly have been women. Roughly one third of the professionals and Farmer Promoters who were trained in the PICSA process are women. The questionnaire developed by ICRAF is gender responsive and targets male and female household heads/spouses. Half of the sample is expected to be female respondents. The data analysis will provide information on gender difference with regard to the current state of access/use of climate services and coping mechanisms. Likewise, the M&E process developed by University of Reading is gender-responsive. Coordination with Other USAID Programs and Partner Initiatives The project leverages and coordinates with the CCAFS-led Africa Climate Services project, funded by USAID-ARF, which works with ICPAC (IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications 7

10 Center, Nairobi) to expand the suite of products that it provides regionally for the agricultural sector, and embed capacity within ICPAC to build capacity of national meteorological services to meet the climate information needs of their agricultural sectors. The two projects have initiated joint planning, analyses and (in the case of growing season onset) Maproom prototyping, to develop new tools for analysis of start of the rainfed growing season, and to monitor and predict impacts of drought on crop production through modeled soil water balance. The project leadership (James Hansen and Desire Kagabo) is in ongoing contact with Rebecca Venton (UK Met Office) to coordinate capacity development activities the FONERWA-funded Strengthening Meteo Rwanda's weather and climate services to support development project. Project staff met with the Chief of Party of the USAID-FUNDED Rwanda Private Sector Driven Agriculture Growth (PSDAG) project, in September, to initiate collaboration and information sharing between the two projects and their various stakeholders. Success story Survey-based evidence indicates that the PICSA process that the project rolled out in four pilot districts had a multiplying effect that reached more than 32,000 farming households. The project first trained a core group of 31 expert trainers in the PICSA approach, who then contributed to training 63 (33% female) Farmer Promoters, Social Economic Development Officers (SEDOs) and Sector Agronomists during two additional parallel training workshops. The trained intermediaries then rolled out training and planning activities with 2559 farmers (48% female) in the four target districts (Burera, Ngorero, Nyanza and Kayonza). Effectiveness of the communication process was assessed by a survey of 206 farmers (46% female) who had participated in training and planning meetings facilitated by trained extension staff and Farmer Promoters. Overwhelmingly (>97%), respondents said that, as a result of the information and training they received, they are more confident about their farming and livelihood decision-making, expect to improve their household food security and income, see farming as more of a business than previously, and feel better prepared to cope with bad seasons caused by the weather. A similar percentage said that they plan to change farm or livelihood decisions in response to the information and training. Most (83%) respondents said they had shared the information with peers outside of their households. Those respondents who reported sharing information indicated they reached an average of 8 females and 6 males each, or an additional 2394 households collectively. Assuming that the sample of farmers surveyed was representative, and therefore 83% of the 2631 participating farmers shared information and concepts with an average of 14 peers, we estimate that aspects of the climate information and PICSA process reached 29,736 farm households through farmer-to-farmer communication, or 32,295 farm households total. 8