Professor Mark Swilling, Sustainability Institute School of Public Management and Planning Stellenbosch University South Africa

Transcription

1 Why developing countries need dramatic increases of energy and resource productivity Professor Mark Swilling, Sustainability Institute School of Public Management and Planning Stellenbosch University South Africa

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3 Can we solve this problem...

4 ...if we spend our money on resourceintensive infrastructure?

5 Conceptions of development Underdevelopment limited material growth, no improvements in wellbeing Maldevelopment growth without improvements in wellbeing Development growth with improvements in wellbeing Sustainable development non non-material growth with improvements in wellbeing

6 Aspirations are about development, reality is maldevelopment, underdevelopment Growth rates escalating 2% in 80s, 3% in 1990s, going up to 5% by 2005/6 New optimism, fast developers leading the way SA, Nigeria, Ghana, Uganda, etc But trapped as a resource exporter new scramble for Africa Looting Africa

7 2000: 80% of Africa s s exports were primary natural resources Ave for developing countries: 31% Ave for developed countries: 16% Many countries dependent on one product - crude oil (Angola, Congo, Gabon, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea), copper (Zambia), coffee (Burundi, Ethiopia, Uganda), tobacco (Malawi) and uranium (Niger)

8 2005 World Bank report - Where is the Wealth of Nations? Gross National Income (GNI): from gross national savings, subtract consumption of fixed capital, resource use, & pollution costs, add in investments in human capital Because prices for primary resources are so low, GNI for SSA is negative For every 1% increase in dependence on exports of primary resources, GDP declines by 9% against the real recorded GDP

9 Global Economy & African resources Global economy depends on low prices for African resources EU strategy document makes it clear that this must be maintained But Africa needs a fair price if it is going to finance the transition to development/sustainable development Escalating conflicts in Africa directly related to resource competition

10 25 years of neo-liberal economic policy has meant state withdrawal, export-led growth, low resource prices, divestments in human capital, poor governance & lifting tariffs that destroyed local industry costing $272 billion since mid- 1980s Remain trapped as a cheap resource provider, negative GNI trends continue Fair prices for resources, positive GNI, capture surpluses for re-investment in innovation for sustainability

11 Is decoupling an option for Africa? Is a low price regime for primary resources a good idea for global SD? If resource productivity is key to SD, surely this cannot happen if resource prices remain low? Fair prices & demand: reduced quantities exported, but not necessarily reduced income, but more could be beneficiated if investments in local innovation took place

12 Material Flow Analysis Behrens, 2007

13 Material & Energy Flow Analysis Materials: 8.8 tons/cap in % increase in total extraction, down from 9.2t/cap in 1980 (pop growth) 25% less resources needed in 2002 to produce $1b of GDP compared to 1980 Energy: World average is 4.5 tons/cap in 2004 should be 2.25 t/cap to save billion plus lives

14 Materials Extraction / Region in 2002 Oceania: 64 tons/cap North America: 32 tons/cap Transition countries: 13 tons/cap Africa and Asia: 5 6 tons/cap World average: 8.8 tons/cap

15 Material & Energy Flow Analysis Energy: 4.5 tons/cap in 2004, should be 2.25 Materials: 8.8 tons/cap in 2002, down from 9.2/cap in 1980 & 25% less/$1b of GDP

16 Oceania N. America LatAm&C W. Europe Africa Asia (Behrens, 2007)

17 Transition countries Africa LatAm & C Oceania Asia N. Am W. Eur Behrens, 2007)

18 Conditions for massive increases in resource productivity in Africa Can only happen as part of a global deal more with less? less of more for some, more for others, less overall Fair prices will be key WTO not a useful forum to negotiate this, must become a slogan for decoupling & SD Poor governance/maldevelopment still pervasive in Africa this must change New approach to innovation & technology transfer is key to SD (non-material growth with improvements in wellbeing) Global responsibility for Africa impacts?

19 3 reasons why development not an option for Africa Cities are the incubators of Africa s industrial future Agriculture UNEP s s strong emphasis on organic farming Oil peak: rising prices good for some, bad for most resource curse here to stay

20 1900: Africa had no million cities, by 2000 it had 35 8 of the largest 100 cities in 2000 were in Africa Largest cities in Africa are now in SSA, rather than North Africa where they traditionally used to be 27 of the 100 fastest growing cities for the period are in Africa (21 being national capitals) 60% of urban dwellers live in informal settlements Most African governments refuse to invest, but cities are the growth drivers 10% of GGP spent on energy, waste, water & sanitation infrastructure using tradition technologies Incubators of a new urban culture of survival, innovation, enterprise, cross-ethnic cooperation & political formation

21 Source: The Dynamics of Global Urban Expansion, Solly Angel et al, 2005

22 Sub-Saharan Africa s wood-energy consumption is the highest in the world Primary production of biomass energy in 2000 (10 18 Joules) SSA 10.2 China 8.9 India 8.4 Latin America 3.2 Source: IEA, 2003 Source: Bailis,Ezzati & Kammen, Science (2005)

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24 Germany: The Melander family of Bargteheide. Food expenditure for one week: Euros or $500.07

25 Chad: The Aboubakar family of Breidjing Camp. Food expenditure for one week: 685 CFA Francs or $1.23

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28 Nutrient loss/ha in SSA since 1970s across 100 m ha of cultivated land 700 kgs of N 100 Kg of P 450 Kg of K And nutrient mining may well be accelerating - about 86% of African countries lose more than 30 Kgs of NPK per ha per year (Henao and Baanante 1999)

29 Nutrient decline from a conventional farming perspective Nutrient decline due to low level of chemical fertilizer use, declining soil organic matter, and insufficient attention to crop nutrition Fertilizer use grew by 3.1% globally in the 1990s, declined in SSA. Half of all fertilizer used in Africa is imported into Africa as aid 22 out of 40 SSA countries get ALL their fertilizer for free via aid To buy fertilizer in Africa, it costs 6-11 kgs of grain, compared to 2-3 kgs of grain in Asia

30 Erosion in Africa and Asia reduced average yields per ha by 10 to 20% since 1900 At current erosion rate continues, yields may decrease another 16.5% in Asia and 14.5% in SSA per ha by 2020 (Scherr and Yadav 1996).

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32 Nutrient imbalances - overall yields in Africa have increased - how is this possible? Clue: 26 million ha abandoned since 1970s Farmers abandoned degraded soils, opened virgin land Woodland and forest cleared for newly cultivated fields There is a limit to this as land availability for expansion declines, nutrient levels and yields decline, forcing people to leave the land and migrate to the urban areas (Gruhn et al., 2000: 11)

33 green revolution reached its limits, oil dependent gene revolution creates new dependencies ever-green revolution supported by merging of eco-science, agric- science and IKS

34 Peak Oil 2008 World Energy Report (IEA) If Saudi Arabia has peaked, the world has peaked Source: ASPO

35 28% of all China s s imported oil comes from Africa Africa produces 8% of world s s oil Oil revenues have funded maldevelopment Oil peak-driven price increases could become Africa s innovation fund Depends on governance

36 "We have an opportunity over the decade ahead to shift the structure ture of our economy towards greater energy efficiency, and more responsible use of our natural resources and relevant resource- based knowledge and expertise. Our economic growth over the next decade and beyond cannot be built on the same principles and technologies, the same energy systems and the same transport modes, that we are familiar with today." - South African Finance Minister Trevor Manual, Budget speech, Parliament February 20th, 2008

37 (Source:UNDP HDR, 2007)

38 Key SA Government documents National Framework for Sustainable Development (2008) decoupling/ dematerialization Long-Term Mitigation Strategy (2008) low carbon economy National Science Plan (2008) set up a National Innovation System for building knowledge base for transition to SD (defined as non-material economic growth & improved wellbeing) Renewable Energy Act (2008)

39 A global commitment to decoupling could spur transition to SD in Africa Without fair prices, Africa has nothing to gain from resource productivity in the North Focus should be on innovation systems Cities, soils & oil should become key agenda items for the Panel No-one one benefits from the New Scramble for cheap African resources