KARAMOJA RAPID CROP AND FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT

Transcription

1 KARAMOJA RAPID CROP AND FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT This Rapid Assessment was conducted by: KAMPALA, AUGUST 2013 World Food Programme (WFP) - Elliot Vhurumuku; Hamidu Tusiime; Eunice Twanza; Alex Ogenrwoth; Swaleh Gule; James Odong; and Joseph Ndawula Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) - Bernard Onzima; Joseph Egabu; Paddy Namurebire; and Michael Lokiru Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) - Johnson Oworo; Timothy Ojwi; Jimmy Ogwang; and Catherine Nakalembe Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) - James Obo; and Stephen Kataama

2 Table of Contents Executive Summary INTRODUCTION Background Objectives Methodology Sampling methodology Selection of respondents AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Performance of the rainfall season Land preparation Crop Inputs Area planted Crop performance and yields Southern Districts Northern districts Production Estimates Livestock and pasture condition Pasture and water availability Milk production Livestock health MARKETS Casual labour Livestock markets Main Cereal Markets Terms of Trade (TOT) HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY AND VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS Household food access Income Sources Food Sources Household food consumption NUTRITIONAL STATUS FOOD ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS Vulnerable areas Current food security (September to November) Projected food security (Lean season 2014 /Post-harvest) Strategies for coping with food insecurity RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FOLLOW-UP ACTIONS Recommendations related to household food security Short term Medium to long term Recommendations related to agriculture Short term Medium to long term September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 1

3 Executive Summary Following a long dry spell from mid-may to mid-july of 2013, the Government requested FAO and WFP to carry out a rapid assessment in Karamoja region to understand its impact on agriculture and food security. The assessment was meant to triangulate findings from earlier studies by the Government and humanitarian partners. The assessment was carried out by staff from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) of the United Nations; the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM); and the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF). As a result of the dry spell, less than optimum acreages of sorghum and finger millet were planted in the northern districts of Karamoja, estimated at 50 percent for Kotido; 40 percent for Abim; and 30 percent or less for Kaabong. For the southern districts, the planted acreages were within the normal season range. The dry spell led to wilting of the early planted sorghum and maize crops and also resulted in poor grain-filling of the crops that survived in Kotido, Abim and the agro-pastoral areas of Moroto, Napak, Nakapiripirit and parts of Amudat districts. The yields are expected to be below the normal in most of the sub-counties as a result of the general poor crop performance; an estimated 108,000 tonnes of cereals will be harvested in Karamoja. Furthermore, due to the poor season and crop failure, the harvest will be delayed thereby extending the lean season by 1 to 2 months as the main harvest will be expected in September/October in most of the sub-counties. Most of the subcounties in the southern districts of Moroto, Napak, Nakapiripirit and parts of Amudat districts were greenharvesting by the time of the survey, despite the poor rainfall season. Similarly, in Kotido and Abim some households had access to green harvest. The dry spell did not have much impact on pastures and water and hence, livestock production and productivity across all districts was good. Calving and milk production were at the normal levels, especially with the resumption of the rainfall in mid-july Livestock has however been affected by a number of diseases such as Contagious Bovine Pleuro Pneumonia (CBPP) in all the seven districts of Karamoja. The sub-counties whose harvest has been severely impacted by the dry spell are in Kotido and Kaabong and the central agro pastoral belt of Moroto, Napak and Nakapiripirit districts. As a result, current food insecurity situation is severe for about 103,000 people and another 248,000 are under stress and require a further round of food assistance in October 2013, to cover the extended lean season until the main harvest in October Given the low income opportunities, high poverty levels, diminished livestock ownership and high malnutrition rates in the affected sub-counties, the expected poor harvest will result in an early lean season by February 2014, and the food security condition in the affected sub- counties will worsen during the peak of the lean season in Hence, an estimated 495,000 to 600,000 people will require assistance in 2014 starting from February However if food assistance programs are expanded, this could be averted. The actual number of people affected will depend on the final harvest outcome that will depend on how the season will progress. Furthermore, there is need to determine the adequacy of the 50 percent ration size allocated to the extremely vulnerable households, to adjust it in 2014 if insufficient to meet the food gap. To avert the future threats to livelihoods and food insecurity, improvement in agricultural production systems is required. There is need for continued interventions in livestock health such as routine vaccinations to control livestock diseases; supporting communities to engage in food production and income generation throughout the year. This may involve provision of early maturing and drought tolerant seeds and planting materials like pearl millet, cow peas, cassava cuttings and sweet potato vines to take advantage of shortened rain durations, and small scale irrigation for off-season production; continued support in animal traction hardware (oxen and ox-ploughs) to facilitate cultivation; and the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) should continue supporting farmers with tractors for land preparation but making sure it is done early before the start of the rain season. 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 2

4 Furthermore, there is need to continue monitoring the rainfall season and also ensure that a post-harvest crop and food needs assessment is carried out later in the year to facilitate planning and timely decision making. 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. Background The Karamoja sub region, located in north-eastern Uganda is classified as semi-arid by Ugandan standards. The districts of Karamoja have the highest human Poverty Indices (HPI) with Nakapiripirit and Moroto districts having 63.5 percent and Kotido has 53.8 percent, compared to the national average of 37.5 percent, Central region of 31.5 percent, Northern region 46.1 percent, Western region 39.0 percent and Eastern region 37.1 percent 1. Human welfare, living conditions and quality of life of the people in Karamoja have declined considerably over the years due to a combination of factors, which include harsh weather characterized by extended droughts, insecurity, illiteracy, poor health and infrastructure, etc. Hence, development levels and food security remain poor in the region and have been strongly influenced by insecurity experienced in the sub region. The high variability in temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall influences livelihood strategies. Agro-pastoralism that has evolved over the years is the dominant livelihood system of the region. The livestock production system depends on seasonal movement of herds between wet and dry season grazing lands. Though the livestock numbers diminished over the years, it has remained an important livelihood source as it is more resilient to seasonal droughts than crops. Cereals such as sorghum, millet and maize; and pulses such as groundnuts and beans are also cultivated during the wet season and contribute to the households production and economy. However, crop harvest in 2012 was below expected due to unfavourable weather conditions. This reduced the available food stocks for the first half of 2013, creating a big threat to household food security. Furthermore, a prolonged dry spell in 2013, delayed harvests, thereby giving additional stress to household food security especially for the poor. Following information coming from many communities, especially in the Karamoja sub-region regarding household food stress and a visit by Ministers to the region, a meeting convened by the State Minister for Relief, Disaster Preparedness and Refugees on 4 th August 2013, agreed that a rapid food security assessment be conducted in Karamoja. Hence, a rapid assessment was carried out between 12 to 16 August 2013 by a team comprising representatives of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) of the United Nations; the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM); and the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF). The purpose of the assessment was to look at the impact of the dry spell and other shocks on food security and make projections and recommendations for action in the short and medium-term. The assessment particularly looked at food availability through crop and livestock production, food access through markets and food utilization. This assessment report, therefore triangulates the findings of the assessment mission with results of recent assessments in Moroto and Kaabong by the District Local Governments, Rapid Food Security Assessment by FAO in June 2013 and the WFP May 2013 Food Security and Nutrition assessment September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 3

5 1.2. Objectives The purpose of the assessment was to gauge the food security situation in Karamoja and how it had evolved since May 2013 when reports of food stress started emanating from the sub region. Specially, the rapid assessment sought to ascertain the following; The changes in household food access, food consumption patterns, cash sources to meet priority basic needs and coping mechanisms used to respond to the specific effects of the stress conditions; Households resilience capacity, taking into consideration the role and contribution of current humanitarian and other assistance and the sustainability of coping mechanisms being employed; The profile of population groups requiring agriculture and other livelihood support assistance, and the type of assistance required Methodology Sampling methodology As this was a rapid assessment, all the seven districts were covered and the sub counties were purposively selected, but taking into consideration the different livelihood zones of Karamoja and the different food security levels according the latest Food Security and Nutrition Assessment (FSNA) results conducted in May 2013, by Makerere University Institute of Public Health. Table 1: Sub-counties sampled for the assessment District Sub-county Parish Village Food Consumption Score Mean zone Code Livelihood Zone Abim Alerek Kulodwong Tyen opobo Agricultural Abim Morulem Adea Mowlem Agricultural Amudat Karita Losidok Kaichom Pastoral Amudat Amudat Kotobok Dingdinga Pastoral Kaabong Lodiko Lodiko Kajir Pastoral Kaabong Lolelia Lolelia Kalutuo Agricultural Kaabong Kalapata Kalapata Mouredikae Agropastoral Kaabong Kalapata Kalapata Kalapata TC Agropastoral Kotido Rengen Nakwakwa Rutom Agropastoral Kotido Kacheri Kacheri Kokuwan Agricultural Kotido Kotido Kanawat Um-um Agropastoral Moroto Tapac Loyaraboth Lopeduru Pastoral Moroto Katikekile Lia Namorutome Pastoral Moroto Rupa Mogoth Akwapuwa Pastoral Nakapiripirit Lorengedwat Kamutulu Lokwakwa Agropastoral Nakapiripirit Muruita Moruita Moruita Agricultural Nakapiripirit Namalu Lokatapan Komojojo Agricultural Napak Lopei Nakwamoru Lokore Agropastoral Napak Lokopo Apeitolim Nabata Agropastoral Napak Iriiri Iriiri Kaurikiakine Agricultural 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 4

6 The 2009 FEWS NET livelihood zoning for Karamoja dividing the region into pastoral, agropastoral and agricultural zones was used to ensure coverage across the three diverse livelihood zones. However, with increased security, in recent years only two broad livelihood zones namely agropastoral and agricultural are now in existence (Table 1). The former pastoral zone still differs from others in its access to food, income sources and markets as crop production was introduced in the last three years. Within the selected sub counties, a parish and then a village were randomly selected to carry-out Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with the community members. Overall, 20 village FGDs were conducted, with about three FGDs carried out per district. In the selection of markets, the main markets were covered and these include: Kaabong market in Kaabong district; Kanawat in Kotido; Bartanga in Abim; Katanga-Naitakwae in Moroto; Iriiri in Napak; Namalu in Nakapiripirit; and Amudat market in Amudat district Selection of respondents The rapid food security assessment was conducted in all the seven districts of Karamoja, using a set of checklists. Information on food and livelihood security was obtained through Key Informant Interviews (KII) with district leaders and selected sub-county officials, FGD with community members and individual households in selected sub-counties, Traders in selected markets and field observations of production and livelihood activities (see Table 2 below). Two to three FGDs were conducted per district and the sub-counties purposively selected but ensuring that all the livelihood zones 2 in Karamoja were covered. Information on the food and livelihood security conditions, a general picture of the food availability, access and consumption situation and the crop and livestock production prospects for the season and what impact this is likely to have in the short and medium term was collected. For markets, prices of commodities, their availability, sources, demand at the time of the assessment compared to normal years and the overall functionality of the market system was assessed. Table 2: Method used in the assessment Method Sites Covered Persons Interviewed District Key Informant Interviews 7 districts Local Council V (LCV) chairpersons, the Chief Administrative Officers (CAO), the District Production and Marketing Officers (DPMO), District Internal Security Officers (DISO) and District Community Development Officers (DCDO) Sub County Key 19 Sub-counties Local Council III chairperson, sub-county chief or some other Informant Interviews knowledgeable sub-county leader; staff of UN agencies and NGOs Markets 7 District Markets Traders ( 2 or 3 per market) Focus Group Discussion 20 Focus Groups A focus group per village (parish) with 8 to 15 persons including women Households 14 Communities 34 (a mixture of poor, average and better off) households 2. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION 2.1. Performance of the rainfall season The rainfall in most districts of Karamoja was generally erratic and below normal for the period of March to August A mid-season dry spell between May and mid July 2013 prompted the 2 A livelihood zone can be defined as areas within which people share broadly the same pattern of livelihood (i.e. broadly the same production system -agriculture or pastoralism for example - as well as broadly the same patterns of trade/exchange). 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 5

7 government and its partners to carry out the rapid assessment (see Figure 1 for the seasonal calendar). The rains started normally in mid-march in the southern districts of Moroto, Napak, Nakapiripirit and Amudat. As the rainfall received in March and April was average to above average, this resulted in the normal land preparation and planting of crops. In April, heavy rains were reported in some of the sub-counties resulting in flash floods and water logging in low-lying areas, especially in the wetter green belts of Iriiri and Lorengecora in Napak district and Namalu in Nakapiripirit district. Furthermore, in some areas of Iriiri and Namalu sub-counties, the black cotton soils became heavy and hard to work. The flash floods washed away some crops especially in mountain slope farms of Tapac in Moroto district; and Amudat and Karita sub-counties of Amudat district where a lot of the staple maize is planted along river banks. However, below average rainfall received from mid-may to mid-july led to the wilting of some crops and water stress for others in all the districts of southern Karamoja. Crops recovered with rains that resumed in mid-july. As a result, limited green harvest from the early planted crops was available in some of the sub-counties in the green belt in June. Most of the green consumption became available in most sub-counties in the southern districts in July and August. The main harvest is therefore expected in September and October in most districts rather than August and September. In the northern districts of Abim, Kotido and Kaabong, the first rains were received in April as expected, but lasted only two to four weeks. However, at the usual peak of the planting season in May, a dry spell set in affecting land preparation and crop establishment. The rains resumed in June, but only for two weeks, with another dry spell setting in from mid-june to mid-july. The dry spells resulted in these districts planting less than the optimum acreage of the staple sorghum and finger millet. The dry spell led to the wilting of crops and stunting of the early planted crops. As a result, green harvest was only available for maize in the mountainous areas of Abim and early sorghum crop was also available in Kotido district. Harvest of crops is expected in September and October for Kotido rather than August and September and will be a month later in Abim and Kaabong districts. Figure 1: Seasonal calendar for 2013 Activity J F M A M J J A S O N D Rainfall amount B AA A D D B A Rainfall distribution P E P P P E Land opening Planting Weeding Green harvest (for some sub-counties) Main harvest KEY: Rainfall amount; D Dry; B Below average; A Average; Rainfall distribution; P Poor; E Even AA Above average 2.2. Land preparation As is the usual practice, most of the cultivation was done with oxen and ox-ploughs by the average and better-off wealth groups. The poor households, who have limited or no access to draught animal power mainly used hand hoes for cultivation, as is the case in most regions of Uganda. In addition, in 2013 the Office of the Prime Minister also facilitated households with tractor cultivation for considerable tracts of land. However, there were reports of the tractor hire scheme cultivation taking 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 6

8 place in May and June, which coincided with the onset of the dry spell resulting in limited portions of the cultivated land being planted. The assessment mission observed some of the unplanted tractorcultivated land in many districts. In Amudat district, land was largely cultivated with hand hoes since the communities in this district consider cattle as sacred and not to be tortured, hence did not use oxen for cultivation. However, with the intervention of Karamoja Livelihoods Programme (KALIP)/FAO through distribution of oxen and ox-ploughs and training of Agropastoral Field School (APFS) groups in all districts, the attitude in Amudat is changing Crop Inputs Standard seed of cereals were largely available. However, most of the varieties planted are still the traditional varieties despite efforts of on-going programmes such as National Agricultural Advisory Programme (NAADS) and the Karamoja Livelihoods Programme (KALIP) to promote better seed varieties. Although there is increased availability of improved varieties of seeds such as Sekedo sorghum, MM3 and Longe V maize through these programmes, farmers still plant considerable amounts of the traditional varieties, which are considered to be more tolerant to drought and diseases. Vegetative planting materials such as cassava cuttings and sweet potato vines were readily available in the wetter agricultural belts of Abim, Napak, Nakapiripirit and Kaabong districts. Limited availability of these planting materials was reported in the agropastoral areas. Seed of pulses and legumes were limited in the communities. This was because most of what had been preserved was consumed by the poor households as a consequence of the extended lean period and the replanting after the dry spell exhausted the seed stocks. Despite the fact that most of the varieties grown are Open Pollinated Varieties (OPVs), high seed prices in the markets and a poor culture of saving seed for the next cropping seasons exacerbated the problem of accessing seed of legumes and pulses especially beans and groundnuts Area planted Based on Key Informant discussions with the District Production and Marketing Departments, the estimated average acreages cropped by the different categories of households were collected. The area planted per district and wealth group varied (Table 3). The area planted with crops in the southern districts was more or less the same as in a normal year. However, the cropped area in the northern districts is lower than the normal as a result of poor rainfall performance at the usual time of land preparation. The area planted in these districts was therefore estimated at 50 percent of the optimum for Kotido, 40 percent for Abim and 30 percent or less for Kaabong district. In order to get a fair estimate of the average area cropped per household, the estimated acreage cropped by the different wealth groups was weighted by the proportion of households in that wealth group (Table 3), giving the weighted average area 3. 3 The average area cropped by the different wealth groups (i.e. poor, middle and better-off households) was multiplied by the proportion of households estimated to belong to that wealth group in order to compute the weighted average cropped area per household. This gives a better estimation of cropped areas than use of the absolute averages 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 7

9 Table 3: Weighted average and estimated range (in brackets) of area cropped per household in acres Wealth group Better-Off Middle Poor Weighted Acreage 4 Acreage Acreage Average District (weighted % Pop 5 % (weighted (weighted % Population Area Population and range) and range) and range) Cropped /HH Abim Amudat 5 (4-6) 3.5 (3-4) 10% 5% 3 (2-4) 2.5 (2-3) 30% 50% 1 ( ) 0.63 (0.25-1) 60% 2 45% 1.7 Kaabong % 2 30% 1 60% 1.6 Kotido Moroto Nakapiripirit Napak 5.5 (5-6) 3 (2-4) 5 (4-6) 4.5 (4-5) 10% 10% 10% 10% 2.5 (2-3) 2 ( ) 3.5 (3-4) 2.5 (2-3) 30% 30% 30% 30% 1.5 (1-2) 0.75 (0.5-1) 1.5 (1-2) 0.75 (0.5-1) 60% % % % Crop performance and yields Crop performance across Karamoja is varied, depending on location, time of planting and crop variety planted. The mid-season dry spell had varying effects on crops at different stages of growth. As a result of the dry spell, the kernel filling in the affected sub-counties was affected for the early crops, whilst for the late planted crops, they are generally doing well and if rains continue, good harvest is expected Southern Districts Moroto District The performance of early planted crops, especially maize and pulses was reported to have been severely affected in the agropastoral sub-counties of Moroto district since they were caught at the early vegetative growth stage. The more resistant sorghum somewhat survived in most agropastoral areas although the filling of the kernels is poor due to the dry spell at the critical stage of flowering. The physiologically mature sorghum gardens are not being fully harvested. The practice of leaving sorghum to completely dry in the field before harvest even after reaching physiological maturity leads to high post-harvest losses caused by strong winds, heavy rains and destruction by birds; and rodents for the crops that lodge (fall down). The late crops planted in June and July are performing much better and good harvest is expected if the current rains continue. Sorghum harvest is estimated to be 60 to 70 percent of normal in the sorghum growing sub-counties of Rupa and Nadunget. Poor households estimate sorghum harvests of only 0.5 to 1 granary ( Kg) this year as opposed to an average of 4 granaries (1000Kg) in a normal year (Table 4). 4 The range of area cropped by the different wealth groups was obtained from the District Production and Marketing Departments 5 FAO (2010), Household Economy Analysis - Agropastoral Baseline Profile of Karamoja 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 8

10 Maize and beans performance is good in the eastern sub-counties of Tapac and Katikekile, but yields are expected to be below potential for these crops largely as due to poor and traditional management practices. Nakapiripirit District The performance of early planted crops, especially maize and pulses was reported to have been severely affected in the agropastoral sub-counties of Nakapiripirit district since they were caught at the early vegetative growth stage. The more resistant sorghum somewhat survived in most agropastoral areas although the filling of the kernels is poor due to the dry spell at the critical stage of flowering. In Nakapiripirit district, early planted crops partially wilted in the agropastoral sub-counties of Lorengedwat and Nabilatuk and got etiolated in low-lying areas, especially in Namalu sub-county because of standing water. Only percent of the planted sorghum reportedly survived in these agropastoral areas. Performance of crops, which were re-planted are good but is dependent on continuation of the rains. However, only about 50 percent of households were reported to have replanted crops in the district. Households are therefore projected to have food from their own gardens in the coming months. Harvest of only Kg/acre of maize is expected in the lower agricultural belt of Nakapiripirit this year. This maize harvest is about 50 percent of the normal expected yield of Kg/acre. However, harvest of Kg/acre of maize is expected in the agropastoral belt, much lower than that in the agricultural belt. Expected average cereal grain harvest per household this year is Kg. A comparative estimate of the expected yield rates of the major crops grown in Nakapiripirit is shown in the Table 4. Napak District In Napak district, early planted crops were damaged by the mid-season dry spell in both the agropastoral and agricultural belts. Like in the two previous districts, the performance of early planted crops, especially maize and pulses was reported to have been severely affected in the agropastoral sub-counties of Napak district since they were caught at the early vegetative growth stage. The more resistant sorghum somewhat survived in most agropastoral areas although the filling of the kernels is poor due to the dry spell at the critical stage of flowering. Crops are performing much better in the agricultural belt (sub-counties of Iriiri and Lorengecora) than in the agropastoral belt. Late planted crops have recovered in the agropastoral belt. Sorghum midge, mildew, honey dew and maize stock borer were the main diseases and pests that negatively impacted on crop production in the green agricultural belt. The parasitic striga weed is reported to be on the increase in Iriiri sub-county and is negatively affecting cereal yields. Land opening was also reported to have been limited in the green agricultural belt due to limited access to animal traction. Despite these problems, a good harvest is expected for those that replanted crops in the green agricultural belt. However, only an estimated 30 percent of the households, especially the better-off replanted crops in this belt. 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 9

11 The main staple sorghum is estimated by the district production department and farmers at only percent of the normal yield in the agropastoral belt i.e Kg/acre of the normal yield of Kg/acre. Tuber crops like cassava and sweet potatoes have been adopted by the communities in the green agricultural belt. This would supplement cereals production boosting the food supplies and is expected to have a multiplier effect in the agropastoral areas subsequently. Amudat District In Amudat district, crop performance in Loroo sub-county is normal, while Amudat and Karita subcounties have below normal crops. Seventy to eighty percent of the staple early maize crop in Karita sub-county was reportedly lost because of the flooding during the early part of the season and the mid-season dry spell that affected tasseling. Better performance of the late planted staple maize is expected to salvage this situation in these two sub-counties. Maize and beans in Loroo sub-county are performing exceptionally well and surplus harvest is expected. In Amudat and Karita subcounties, the early planted beans and groundnuts completely failed. Aphids were the major pest that affected the beans and groundnut crop in these districts. Vegetable production is picking-up through the organized groups such as the agropastoral field schools and is being marketed. Expected yield of maize for Karita and Amudat sub-counties is Kg/acre while that of Loroo sub-county is normal to above normal estimated at Kg/acre (Table 4). Lower than normal harvest is expected for beans in Amudat and Karita sub-counties. Overall, the average expected harvest of maize per household is Kg and for beans is 30-50Kg. Table 4: Estimated Yields for main Crops in the southern districts Main crops Normal Yield (Kg/acre) Moroto Nakapiripirit Napak Amudat Current Normal Normal Current Normal Yield Yield Current Yield Yield Yield Yield (Kg/acre) (Kg/acre) (Kg/acre) (Kg/acre) (Kg/acre) (Kg/acre) Current Yield (Kg/acre) Sorghum ; 100- Maize Beans Groundnuts Lost Rice (Namalu)* Sunflower * Above normal rice yields are expected in Northern districts Kotido District In Kotido district, the early planted crop largely survived the dry spell in the sorghum growing areas and the crop is almost maturing. Grain filling of the early crop was affected by the dry spell such that some kernels aborted and some are not optimally filled, hence will affect the harvest (50 to 70 percent of normal yield is expected). In Kotido district, at least 40 percent of the sorghum and finger millet is ready for harvest to date (August). The mature crops will fill the food gap. However, 6 Current yield in agricultural areas 7 Current yield in agropastoral areas 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 10

12 normally the communities prefer to leave it to dry in the garden as is the case in other parts of Karamoja and this practice results into post-harvest losses. Weed control was poor as the dry spell disrupted weeding of sorghum and finger millet but most critically, groundnuts which the communities believe should not be weeded in dry conditions this inhibited the required soft conditions for pod formation. Bulrush (pearl) millet largely failed in Kotido. Harvest expected per household is indicated in Table 5. Kaabong District In Kaabong district, the sorghum crop was performing well and ranged from vegetative to early flowering though the area planted was lower than usual, due to poor rains at the start of the planting season. Hence, harvest per household would be lower (Table 5). Harvest is expected from September. Bulrush millet was planted as usual in June/July and a good harvest is expected with continued sustenance of rains. Maize is currently been harvested green in the western belt whilst the eastern belt which had the fewest days of rain were largely planted latest and are immature. This eastern agropastoral belt will only start harvesting maize in September with their peak expected to be in November. Bulrush (pearl) millet was planted in July. Abim District In Abim district, the sorghum planted is a long maturing variety (Abir) and was mostly still at vegetative stage and doing well and harvesting is expected in October/November. Maize performance was average and being harvested as green in the mountainous areas, whilst for the rest of the district was at vegetative stage and still to flower. Table 5: Expected Harvest per household in the northern districts Main crops Estimated Harvest/HH Normal (Kg) Kotido Kaabong Abim Expected Estimated Expected Estimated Harvest /HH - Harvest/HH - Harvest/HH - Harvest /HH (Kg) Normal (Kg) 2013 (Kg) Normal (Kg) Expected Harvest /HH (Kg) Sorghum Maize 500 Negligible No estimate Beans being planted Finger millet Bulrush millet Groundnuts 4-8 bags ( Kg) 1-2 bags (45-90Kg) 25 to 30 bags ( Kg) 3 to 5 bags ( Kg) Simisim - normal - normal - - Pigeon pea - normal - normal Potatoes 10 bags (dried) Being planted Cassava 13 bags (dried) Reduced 2.6. Production Estimates Based on the analysis in the previous sections, the total estimated cereal harvest for the different districts in Karamoja is shown in Table 6. The final harvest will depend on how the rains will perform until the end of the season as the late planted crops were still at vegetative stage whilst others had 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 11

13 just flowered. The total estimated cereal harvest has been computed by multiplying the number of households in each of the districts by the average estimated household cereal grain harvest. The total cereal harvest is a summation of sorghum and maize harvest for Moroto, Nakapiripirit and Abim districts, maize harvest for Amudat, sorghum and bulrush millet harvest for Kaabong, sorghum and finger millet harvest for Kotido and only sorghum harvest for Napak. Table 6: Estimated total cereal harvest in 2013 District Number of Household/ District Weighted Average Area Cropped/HH (acres) Estimated Cereal Grain Harvest/HH (Kg) Estimated Total Area Cropped (Ha) Estimated Total Cereal Grain Harvest (Kg) Abim 12, ,856 6,160,000 Amudat 20, ,172 5,191,158 Kaabong 101, ,221 38,238,436 Kotido 46, ,789 23,175,609 Moroto 28, ,373 14,234,295 Nakapiripirit 31, ,346 12,794,328 Napak 39, ,177 7,932,382 Total 200, ,726, Livestock and pasture condition Pasture and water availability Pastures have not been adversely affected by the dry spell and were of good quality and adequate. Most of the watering points remained accessible to support livestock production in spite of the dry spell. In the districts prone to cattle rustling, livestock are penned in security protected kraals at night. No livestock migration in search of pastures or water was reported. As a consequence, both cattle and shoats generally registered a body condition score of 3 to 4, where 3 means the body condition is good and 4 means the animal is fat. The good animal condition would be beneficial to livestock owners as they will have access to normal milk production. This has improved the food security status of the households with livestock compared to those without. However, full production and better productivity is limited by diseases Milk production Milk production of 1-2 litres per cow was reported in the agropastoral belts of Moroto, Napak and Nakapiripirit districts. Higher milk yields of 4-5 litres per cow and 8-10 litres per camel were reported in Amudat district even though the breeds kept are similar to those in the other districts. Calving rates are slightly better than those at the same time last year. However, abortions due to Brucellosis are having an effect on calving Livestock health Cattle and shoats The biggest challenge to the health of cattle is the increasing incidences of Contagious Bovine Pleuro Pneumonia (CBPP) in all the seven districts of Karamoja. CBPP is a herd disease and although it is 8 UBoS (2013), Mid-Year Population Estimates of Uganda 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 12

14 endemic in the region, outbreaks can occur if no vaccination against the disease is undertaken regularly, causing considerable death of cattle. The increased cases of CBPP are attributed to the irregular vaccination against the disease. Although some vaccination of cattle against CBPP has been conducted by the District Local Governments and MAAIF, these have been limited in scale. Although tick infestation is a common livestock management problem across the subregion, the reluctance of farmers to spray animals against ticks has resulted into a high incidence of tick borne diseases especially mixed infection of East Coast Fever (ECF), Anaplamosis and Cowdriosis- Heartwater, causing high mortality rates in both calves and adult cattle. The tick control facilities in the region broke-down a long time ago making tick control difficult and this situation is exacerbated by lack of awareness about the dangers of these parasites to the productivity of livestock. Trypanosomiasis or Nagana is becoming a challenge in Kaabong, parts of Kotido and Amudat districts. Bovine trypanosomiasis has become endemic in all the sub-counties of Kaabong district with a steady progressive spread to Kotido district through the bordering sub-counties of Kacheri and Sidok. Despite the concerted integrated efforts of rigorous treatment with various trypanocidals, spraying with targeted acaracides for tsetse flies, and massive setting up of tsetse fly traps, the disease is posing a big threat to both livestock and human health, particularly in sub-counties surrounding the game reserve. Since the outbreak of Pesti des Petits Ruminants (PPR) in 2007, regular vaccination of shoats against PPR and Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia (CCPP) with support from FAO and other partners, especially VSF-Belgium has been on-going. The main challenge affecting production and productivity of shoats now is helminthiasis (worm infestation) and mange, especially goat mange. There is generally improved health for this category of animals due to regular vaccination against these two diseases. Shoats are important animals for the households because unlike cattle, they can be mobilized easily for sale to meet family needs Poultry health There is generally little attention to the health of poultry and yet it plays a vital role in household incomes and nutrition, especially being controlled by women. The biggest health problem is New Castle Disease (NCD) which hit poultry across the region in May 2013, thus reducing the flock sizes, with some households starting a complete re-stocking. 3. MARKETS 3.1. Casual labour Casual labour was indicated as not readily available in most of the communities visited as there is reduced demand of harvest and land preparation of fields early in the year. However, labour rates remained relatively stable in 2013 across the districts. In general, the average daily labour wage rates have been high in 2013 compared to The highest average daily labour wage rates were reported in August at UGX 3,800, attributed to the high wage rates in Napak and Moroto at UGX 5,000 (particularly for stone quarrying). 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 13

15 UGX/Kg 3.2. Livestock markets Livestock markets were functional as expected in all the districts. The price of goats ranged between UGX75,000 and 150,000 each in 2013 across the markets. The highest price was in Moroto at UGX150,000 from July In Nakapiripirit district, the goat purchase prices increased from April 2012 and have remained high ever since, with the largest increase experienced in July In Napak, the price of goats doubled in July 2013 compared to the previous year, and remained high in August. For Kotido, the price for goats have been stable ranging between UGX86,000 to UGX96,000 but increased above UGX110,000 in August In Kaabong, goat prices have been relatively stable for most of 2013 but also increased to over UGX100,000 each in August Main Cereal Markets The markets visited during the assessment had commodities mainly from the current harvest and these included: maize grain, millet, sorghum, simisim, beans, pigeon pea, groundnuts, sweet potatoes, potatoes, cassava, vegetables and limited fruits. The quantities on sale varied with the markets, with less volumes of commodities observed in Kaabong, whilst the Abim market had relatively larger quantities of commodities. Due to the limited current harvest available in some of the districts, commodities were sourced mainly outside Karamoja region. For an example, the cereals and pulses in Abim market were brought by traders from Acholi and Lira districts. Cereals in Kaabong were reported to have been mainly from Soroti district whilst beans and vegetables were from Mbale district. Some markets in the southern districts such as Nakapiripirit, were supplied by stocks from within the district. Since January 2013, maize flour prices in Karamoja have been higher compared to the previous year with the exception of June (Figure 2). During the month of August, maize flour prices were higher by 8.9% compared to the same period in The average nominal prices for maize flour in Moroto, Nakapiripirit, Napak and Kotido districts have been high in July and August 2013 compared to the same period in However in Kaabong district, the price of maize flour remained stable at UGX2,500/kg since November Figure 2: Maize Flour Nominal Retail prices for Key Markets in Karamoja 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ,875 1,740 1,781 2,055 2,310 2,258 2,148 2,025 2,075 2,000 1,590 1, ,037 1,920 2,095 2,140 2,333 2,140 2,185 2,205 In general, Sorghum prices have been low in 2013 compared to 2012 except in Kaabong. Beginning June to August 2013, sorghum grain prices were far less by over 31% compared to the same period in 2012 in all districts (Figure 3). The low sorghum price would benefit most households since this is the main stable crop for most of the sub-counties. 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 14

16 UGX/KG Figure 3: Sorghum Prices in 2012 and 2013 for main markets in Karamoja 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Moroto Moroto ,463 2,500 1,200 1,100 1,100 1,200 1,200 Nakaps Nakaps ,150 1,000 Napak Napak ,000 1,113 1,038 1,183 1,200 Kotido Kotido ,000 1,000 1,250 Kaabong Kaabong , Terms of Trade (TOT) The price increase or decrease of uncompetitive or supplementary commodities relative to another has an impact on the purchasing power of households. For an example the relative price of labour or livestock, compared to the main cereal prices will determine the purchasing power of the household. Hence, the relative price changes will indicate whether households purchasing power is deteriorating or improving. Based on the labour rates and sorghum prices, there has been a general increase in the amount of sorghum purchased per labour day in all districts except for Kaabong that has shown a decrease in 2013 compared to The decrease in Kaabong between January and May is mainly due to constant labour rates that remained at UGX3,000 whilst the sorghum prices doubled to about UGX810/Kg before decreasing to UGX675/Kg in June to August This doubled the TOT (purchasing power) for those engaged in casual labour in August 2013 compared to the same time last year (Table 8). The improvement of the TOT indicates that if wage labour was available, those relying on it would be better off compared to However, given the decrease in harvest and area planted, labour opportunity is reduced in 2013, therefore affecting the labour dependent households. Table 8: TOT Sorghum grain to labour Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Moroto Nakapiripirit Napak Kotido Kaabong September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 15

17 For those with goats, the TOT has also generally improved in 2013 compared to 2012 for most of the districts. However in Kaabong, TOT decreased between January and May This is attributed to the decrease in the goat prices during this period. The TOT has improved also between June and August therefore improving purchasing power of those with goats (Table 9). Table 9: TOT Sorghum grain to Goats Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Moroto Nakapiripiri t Napak Kotido Kaabong HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY AND VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS 4.1. Household food access Income Sources Income sources for the households in most of the districts are quite limited. From the key informant and focus group discussions, most households indicated that majority get their income from petty trade (sale of firewood, charcoal, local beer sales); agricultural labour; and sale of livestock for those who have. Milk and honey sales were reported in Amudat and gold as a source was mainly reported in Kaabong. The field mission observations, agree with the May 2013 WFP assessment that indicated majority of the households depend on petty trade and this varies by district. The second highest proportion of households main source of income is agricultural wage labour followed by crop production. Given that crops harvest is expected to be reduced in 2013 due to the impact of the dry spell, this will in turn affect agriculture labour opportunities due to reduced crop harvesting and field cultivation labour opportunities. Hence, this will negatively impact on food purchases, thereby affecting food access and consumption (Figure 4). 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 16

18 Figure 4: Proportion of households Main source of income Total Napak Nakapiripirit Moroto Kotido Kaabong 30% 26% 26% 42% 33% 17% 18% 11% 28% 57% 12% 19% 3% 2% 17% 9% 9% 6% 3% 36% 2% 13% 5% 5% 12% 11% 3% 7% 7% 7% 13% 3% 4% 1% 5% 1% 3% 4% 1% 1% 5% 14% 1% 1% 2% 15% 2% 2% 2% 5% 7% 2% 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Petty trade crop production and sale Agric wage labour Livestock production and sale Small business Non Agric wage labour Remittances Salary and skilled trade Gifts/begging Food assistance Borrowing Pensionand Gvt allowance Source: May 2013 WFP survey data Food Sources Most households in the districts of Karamoja are not self-sufficient in food production. Food sources are highly seasonal, with households dependent on own production from August through to March during normal years. In the lean season, normally running from March/April through to July/August, most of the households depend on the market for their food. From the household study done in May 2013, at the usual peak of the lean season, 63 percent of the total food consumed in the household was purchased from the market. Of the total food consumed in the household that is purchased from the market, about 32 percent are cereals and tubers. As at the peak of the lean season in May 2013, of all the cereals and tubers consumed in the household, 70 percent were purchased and for pulses, 79 percent came from the market (Table 10). The proportion purchased varied across the districts, indicating the high dependence on markets for food. The more productive districts of Abim and Amudat purchased slightly less compared to other districts at 52 and 60 percent respectively of the total cereal and tubers consumed in the household. The key informant, focus group discussion and a few household interviews confirm these findings as most households were still dependent on the market for their main source of food. However, given the diminished labour opportunities for digging gardens and harvesting, combined with high poverty levels and limited income sources, the households purchasing power has diminished. This has resulted in stressed food security conditions especially for those households that have no livestock and whose crops had not reached maturity. 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 17

19 Table 10: Proportion of food from purchases by District District Abim Amudat Kaabong Kotido Moroto Nakapiripirit Napak Total % of Total Food Cost % Purchases of the total tubers and total food Total Cereals and cereals purchased purchased tubers consumed % Purchases of Total Pulses consumed 20% 58% 52% 80% 24% 50% 60% 64% 35% 61% 71% 73% 35% 62% 73% 78% 32% 65% 80% 86% 42% 69% 73% 80% 40% 75% 82% 82% 32% 63% 70% 79% Source: May 2013 WFP survey data At the time of the assessment, milk availability had improved due to good pastures, water and normal calving, contributing to better nutrition of the households. However, its significant contribution has been reduced by the number of livestock households own, partly explaining the relatively high malnutrition levels reported in the WFP May 2013 study. The distribution of households food sources is such that most households (68 percent) as of May 2013, obtained their food from the market followed by from own production (24 percent). There is variation across the districts, with Abim and Amudat having a larger proportion of households 45 and 36 percent respectively reporting own production as main source of food in May 2013 (Figure 5). Figure 5: Percent households Cereal Sources by District in May 2013 Own production Fishing/hunting Gathering Borrowed Market (purchase with cash) Market (purchase on credit) Beg Exchange labour for items gift from family 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 6% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 45% 59% 61% 78% 84% 74% 70% 68% 2% 1% 7% 45% 1% 1% 36% 2% 1% 25% 2% 0% 14% 13% 19% 21% 24% Abim Amudat Kaabong Kotido Moroto Nakapiripirit Napak Total Source: WFP May 2013 survey data 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 18

20 The rapid food security assessment conducted in August 2013, also indicated that the main food source for most households was from purchases. However, as the green harvest started to come in at the time of the assessment, the households relying on own production increased to 38 percent compared to 24 percent in May The proportion of household relying on own production is expected to increase from September onwards as most households will have access to own crops. The number of households accessing own harvest were still limited and was slightly better in Kotido, Moroto, Nakapiripirit, Napak and Amudat districts, where a sizeable number of households had access to the green harvest. Green harvest is normally from July/August. However, it was generally not widespread in availability as a result of the delayed planting and stunted crops from the dry spell in some sub-counties, especially in Kaabong district. Most of the affected sub-counties will have a delayed green harvest, starting from September/October. Food stocks were found to be diminished with only a few households (less than 20 percent) estimated to be holding stocks from last harvest. The low stock holding is attributed to the poor harvest in 2012, especially in Moroto, Kotido and Kaabong districts due to the excessive rains and water logging in This resulted in an early lean season, which was extended in some of the subcounties due to delayed availability of green harvest in Compared to the May 2013 study, the households dependent on gifts relatives and friends and food aid had increased substantially. This was expected as WFP started distributing food for the extremely vulnerable households (11 percent of Karamoja s population) and Northern Uganda Social Action Fund-2 (NUSAFs) from late May Other food sources are not that pronounced. However, more households estimated at eight percent dependent on gathering (hunting and fishing) compared to May 2013, and this is an indication of the stressed food security condition. The stressed food security conditions will continue in coming months, given that the harvest will not be available any time sooner as the crops were still to mature in most of the sub-counties especially in the northern districts of Karamoja. Food aid has been limited in most of the districts as mostly the extremely vulnerable households receive food assistance whilst the others participate in food for work activities (Figure 5) Household food consumption As the lean season was extended due to the delayed harvest, over two thirds of the households mainly the poor reported consuming one meal a day (in the evening). In Napak district, the poor were reported consuming at least 2 meals per day. The meal was largely composed of sorghum or maize (posho) with green vegetables and sometimes beans. The average and better off households had 2 to 3 meals per day, but the proportion of such households was reported to be quite small. These households typical meals included porridge in the morning or eat the food left over from the previous evening in the morning, followed by posho with green vegetables, beans or meat/fish or milk. Meat consumption was rare given that the number of pigs were reduced by swine fever whilst most of the poultry were lost with the outbreak of Newcastle disease. Consumption of locally brewed beer by majority of adults was quite common. During the assessment, typical poor, average and better off households were interviewed. Indicative data from the households show that the frequency of consumption of cereals and vegetables 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 19

21 generally increased compared to May 2013, whilst that of pulses was mixed. The increase in vegetable and cereal consumption in August compared to May was due to the increased availability of green vegetables, maize and sorghum. Similarly with improved water and pasture the milk consumption has generally improved across most districts (Table 11). Despite these improvements, food security conditions for most households remain stressed until the main harvest. Table 11: Average number of days of food consumption based on a seven day recall District cereals pulses vegetables dairy May-13 Aug-13 May-13 Aug-13 May-13 Aug-13 May-13 Aug-13 Abim Amudat 4.4 No Data 0.6 No Data 3.4 No Data 3.7 No Data Kaabong Kotido Moroto Nakapiripirit Napak Total Note: August 2013 household data is indicative as only a small sample of households was collected 5. NUTRITIONAL STATUS The nutrition status of most of the households could be described as stable given the improved availability of green harvest, green vegetables, milk consumption, food assistance targeted at the extremely vulnerable population and households participation in the food/cash for work programmes. Despite this, the nutrition status remains stressed as most households particularly the poor are consuming one meal per day and that the harvest has been delayed by 1 to 2 months in most sub-counties across the districts. Therefore, the current food consumption by most households is most likely not meeting the nutritional requirements. Hence, the results of May 2013 that indicated poor food security but not extreme and high rates of poor food consumption and malnutrition (Table 12) still largely hold with slight improvements among some selected households. Table 12: Malnutrition levels and Food consumption May 2013 Food Security May 2013 Nutrition Results Results (% of HH with) District Wasting Stunting Underweight Poor Consumption Borderline Consumption Abim Poor poor serious 7% 25% Amudat Serious poor poor 5% 13% Kaabong Serious serious serious 24% 38% Kotido Serious serious serious 20% 44% Moroto Critical critical critical 29% 38% Nakapiripirit Serious serious critical 9% 36% Napak Serious serious serious 28% 38% Source: May 2013 WFP report 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 20

22 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Whilst the food security situation is still stressed, as households face poor food consumption, signs of severe acute malnutrition were not unusual. The admission of children under five years, to Outpatient Therapeutic Care (OTCs) and Inpatient Therapeutic Care (ITCs) for severe acute malnutrition between January and June 2013 is almost similar to the same period in 2012 (Figure 6). Prior to undertaking the survey in August, there were reports of deaths resulting from starvation. The field mission did not get any reports of unusual child and adult mortality. In addition, across all the districts evidence could not be obtained of any deaths that occurred between May and August as a result of food shortages. Exception is the key informants in Kaabong who indicated 48 deaths that were said to be related to food shortages. However, investigations revealed that these were isolated cases of adult deaths. Hence, other aggravating factors such as disease and old age are likely to have been the cause of these deaths. Figure 6: Karamoja ITC/OTC new admission trends Source: UNICEF, Uganda Available secondary data shows that in general the children cured were above expected rates compared to Sphere Standards and data from Karamoja for 2011 and 2012, except in Abim and Amudat districts. On reported deaths, the rates were much below the Sphere standards. However, compared to the whole of Karamoja in 2012, Kaabong and Nakapiripirit districts experienced high deaths for April to June 2013 (Table 13). These slightly higher rates should be of worry. Figure 7: IMAM Performance Indicators proportion of deaths (Jan-Jun 2013) Moroto Napak Nakapiripirit Amudat Kotodo Kaabong Abim Karamoja 2012 Sphere Standard threshold 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 7% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Source: UNICEF Uganda September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 21

23 6. FOOD ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS 6.1. Vulnerable areas Current food security (September to November) Food security situation has slightly improved compared to May 2013 as some of the sub-counties have access to green harvest and green vegetables (wild and grown). The sub-counties not having access to green harvest are mainly in Kaabong. Furthermore, with improved rainfall from July in most areas, access to milk from the livestock for average and better-off households has improved, therefore improving the nutritional status of households. Though there has been general improvement, the food security conditions remain stressed in most of the sub-counties except those that have access to the green harvest. This stressed food security condition in the affected sub-counties particularly for the poor households is a result of the extension of the lean season by 2 to 3 months from August to October 2013 in addition to an early lean season at the start of the year. The early hunger season in 2013 especially in Moroto, Kotido and Kaabong districts was a result of the poor harvest due to excessive rains and water logging in For the southern districts of Karamoja covering Amudat, Nakapiripirit, Napak and Moroto, though some of the households have green harvest, food security is stressed especially in the affected subcounties. The situation will only improve for these households when they get the main harvest expected in September/October. The most affected sub-counties are in Kotido and Kaabong, in the central agro pastoral belt of Moroto, Napak and Nakapiripirit districts and the remaining sub-counties will have poor households under stress given the reduced harvest, limited income opportunities, high poverty rates and the already high malnutrition levels (Table 13 and Figure 8). Table 13: Most affected sub-counties District Total No. of sub counties Most affected subcounties Food Consumption Score (Median) Moroto 6 Nadunget; 31.5 Moroto municipality; Rupa 34.5 Napak 7 Ngoleriet 34.0 Lotome 25.8 Lokopo (except Apeitolim 36.0 parish) Lopei 33.6 Amudat 4 None Nakapiripirit 7 Lorengedwat 29.9 Kotido 8 Panyangara (most 29.7 affected Parish is Rikitae) Rengen (most affected 25.9 Nakwakwa and Lokadeli) Nakapelimoru (most 33.2 affected Lokoorok) Kaabong 15 Loyoro 35.1 Lodiko (most affected are 30.2 Kangios, Kajiri and Kotome) Kalapata 34.7 Kamion 19.1 Abim 5 Nyakwae 36.3 Figure 8: Distribution of most affected sub-counties 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 22

24 In May 2013, the proportion that had poor and borderline consumption per district was used as a proxy to determine the level of food insecurity. Based on this analysis, combining with the availability of harvest and the most affected sub-counties the current needs were calculated. The population with poor consumption in the affected sub-counties was considered as the most affected. The stressed population was based on 50 percent of the population that had borderline consumption, considering that some of the households are now having access to green harvest, vegetables and milk. Using these assumptions, a total of 103,000 people are considered as the most affected by food insecurity and another 248,000 considered as stressed. Hence, a total of 351,220 people are currently food insecure until the main harvest expected from October 2013 (Table 14). Table 14: Population estimated to be Food Insecure (September to November 2013) District Population Male Female Total Population Currently Most Affected % of Population Pop Population under Stress % of Populati Pop on Total Population Affected % of Total Pop Population Kaabong 216, , ,300 6% 24,820 19% 80,240 25% 105,060 Abim 26,800 30,400 57,200 1% % 7,150 14% 7,730 Moroto 74,700 69, ,800 21% 30,570 19% 27,320 40% 57,890 Napak 105, , ,100 11% 22,820 19% 39,730 30% 62,550 Nakapiripirit 86,500 84, ,100 1% 1,040 18% 30,800 19% 31,840 Amudat 68,700 51, , % 7,830 6% 7,830 Kotido 136, , ,800 9% 23,580 22% 54,740 31% 78,320 Total 715, ,700 1,372,800 8% 103,410 18% 247,810 26% 351, Projected food security (Lean season 2014 /Post-harvest) The prolonged dry spell in May/June across most districts will have a negative impact on the expected harvest in The harvest will be below normal due to the reduced area planted under crops for the northern districts of Karamoja, crop failure and poor grain formation for the early planted crops. Hence, this will reduce the cereal available for home consumption from own production in 2013/14. Data from the WFP May 2013 study indicated that 20 to 50 percent of the cereals and tubers come from own production. Given that 2013 harvests will be reduced by 30 to 50 percent, the food from own production will be reduced by the same magnitude thereby resulting in an early lean season in With expected reduced harvests, resulting from poor rainfall and the unusual higher consumption of the green harvest, the lean season is expected to start in January/ February 2014 instead of the normal starting month of March/April. This will extend the lean season or hunger season by 1 to 3 months in For the poor households, harvest will be reduced in Kotido, Kaabong, in the central agro pastoral belt of Moroto, Napak and Nakapiripirit districts. Under these circumstances, food security conditions would be critical towards the peak of the hunger season in For the most affected sub-counties indicated on the table and map above, the situation is expected to worsen off once the harvest runs out. These unprecedented levels of food insecurity will however, be averted if food security programmes are expanded. 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 23

25 For the most affected sub-counties, it is assumed a similar situation to the May 2013 food consumption will prevail at the peak of the hunger season in As early this year, some of the sub-counties will have a prolonged lean season in Hence, the projected affected population is calculated based on the proportion of the population with poor consumption for the most affected sub-counties and the borderline food consumption for all the sub-counties. Based on this, it is projected that between 496,000 to 600,000 people would be food insecure at the peak of the lean season in 2014 (Table 15). These figures would either increase or decrease based on how the rains perform for the remainder of the growing season up to October/November Hence, the final harvest outcome, will determine the likely caseload. It is therefore recommended that a post-harvest assessment be done to revise these projected needs in Table 15: Projected Population food insecure in 2014 District Population Best Case scenario Worst Case Scenario Male Female Total % of Pop Population % of Pop Total Population Kaabong 216, , ,300 38% 160,470 44% 185,290 Abim 26,800 30,400 57,200 25% 14,300 26% 14,880 Moroto 74,700 69, ,800 38% 54,650 59% 85,210 Napak 105, , ,100 38% 79,460 49% 102,280 Nakapiripirit 86,500 84, ,100 36% 61,600 37% 62,630 Amudat 68,700 51, ,500 13% 15,670 13% 15,670 Kotido 136, , ,800 44% 109,470 53% 133,050 Total 715, ,700 1,372,800 36% 495,620 44% 599, Strategies for coping with food insecurity The households facing food insecurity conditions particularly the poor are using different coping mechanisms to meet their food needs. The most common coping mechanisms indicated by households included: Cutting on the number of meals with poor households reporting having one meal in the evening. Consumption of less preferred foods and restricting consumption for adults Increased firewood and charcoal sales. Those households with livestock sold animals and seemed less vulnerable compared to the households without livestock. Households in some of the sub counties of Kaabong, Kotido, Abim and Moroto relied on gold panning and gold mining. In hard times, cattle rustling/raiding and theft are taken as a means of coping. Relying on relatives and sending children away. Borrowing food from those that received food aid and getting food on credit. Limit meal at meal time and skipping meals. Children divided into two some help household in keeping cattle and others go to school Some children forced into early marriages especially for soldiers 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 24

26 During the assessment a few households were interviewed across the districts, the most used coping mechanisms were reducing number of meals and relying on less preferred foods used by 82 percent of the households and the least was sale of productive livestock (Figure 9 below). Figure 9: Proportion of households using different coping mechanisms Reduce number of meals eaten in a day Rely on less preferred and less expensive foods Restrict consumption by adults in order for small Limit portion size at mealtimes Gather wild food, hunt Borrow food, or rely on help from a friend or Skip entire days without eating Harvest immature crops Ration the money you have and buy prepared food Send children to eat with neighbors Consume seed stock held for next season Purchase food on credit Sale of productive assest e.eg. ploughs, etc Feed working members of HH at the expense of Send household members to beg Sale of reproductive livestock 45% 45% 39% 39% 36% 33% 30% 30% 30% 27% 58% 58% 70% 70% 82% 82% 7. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FOLLOW-UP ACTIONS 7.1. Recommendations related to household food security Short term Given the 351,220 people facing food insecurity before the next harvest, there is need to continue with food for work interventions and on-going targeted food distribution to the very vulnerable households to fill the current food gap in the areas where the lean season has been currently extended due to the late plantings and delayed harvest. It is recommended that an additional round of food assistance in 2013 be provided to cover the extended lean season until the main harvest in October/November. As the final 2013 harvest outcome depends on the rainfall performance, there is need to continue monitoring the season, up to October/November Following the main 2013 harvest in October/November, the government and the humanitarian partners should conduct a post-harvest needs assessment to refine the estimated food and non-food needs for Medium to long term For the sub counties that will have an early lean season in 2014, there is need for the humanitarian agencies to start food assistance interventions in February 2014 at the beginning of the lean season. This will address high malnutrition levels and avoid households to engage in coping mechanisms that are damaging to development and the environment and ensuring food security of the affected 4 September 2013: Karamoja Rapid Crop and Food Security Assessment Report P a g e 25