1 San Diego, February 2010 AAAS Annual Meeting 1 Crop Monitoring for Food Security from Space Felix Rembold Joint Research Centre (JRC) The European Commission s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation
2 San Diego, February 2010 AAAS Annual Meeting 2 Global challenges for Food Security & Agriculture Need to almost double current levels of production to satisfy world s population demand by 2050; Need to increase production in a sustainable way; Climate change leading to higher frequency of extreme events (e.g. droughts) and to changes in growing seasons; High food prices, changing markets and policies; Urbanization of world s population; Change of diet in emerging economies; Food aid likely to increase. Earth Observation is crucial for operating current global crop monitoring systems and expanding coverage to new countries as a consequence of the food crisis
3 San Diego, February 2010 AAAS Annual Meeting 3 Crop monitoring today We have now 30 years of daily global low resolution images from NOAA AVHRR, 10 years of SPOT VEGETATION and nearly 10 years of medium resolution sensors such as MODIS and MERIS, High spatial resolution data are becoming more accessible, Several operational systems provide regular information for climatic early warning, crop stress monitoring and yield forecasting, There is a huge amount of research work not always easy to use, Focus is moving away from pure monitoring of crop production to the needs of households, Remote sensing derived products are only useful when calibrated with ground data, cost efficient, timely, reliable, accurate, transparent, clear in communication.
4 1000 ha 5600, , , , , , , ,00 2 y = 0,1409x + 4,1052 = 0,8819 R ,2222x + 3,7532 y = -0,0033x = 0,8998 R France - Soft Wheat Yield - Area YEAR 3, T/ha 8,00 7,50 7,00 6,50 6,00 5,50 5,00 4,50 4,00 San Diego, February 2010 AAAS Annual Meeting 4 MARS Crop Growth Monitoring and Yield forecasting System Data collection Earth Observ. Global low and medium resolution Km Crop models Climate data Ground Stations + Global circulation models Auxiliary information LAND COVER Analysis Stat. analysis SOIL QUALITATIVE INFO Crop status report, early warning QUANTITATIVE INFO Yield forecasts Reporting Dissemination
5 San Diego, February 2010 AAAS Annual Meeting 5 Geographic Coverage of MARS bulletins Current coverage Food insecure Main or emerging producers Planned coverage To be selected in 2010 Ad hoc basis Currently more than 40 crop status reports per year for food insecure countries Significant expansion in Sub Saharian Africa as consequence of food crisis More than 1 Tb per year of low and medium resolution satellite imagery
6 San Diego, February 2010 AAAS Annual Meeting 6 CNDVI Qualitative crop monitoring Galgaduud Bay - High - potential Pastoral sorghum vegetation M ar ar Apr Apr M ay ay Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb rainfall rainfall CNDVI CNDVI CNDVI mm
7 San Diego, February 2010 AAAS Annual Meeting 7 Quantitative yield forecast
8 San Diego, February 2010 AAAS Annual Meeting 8 Examples for the current crop season
9 San Diego, February 2010 AAAS Annual Meeting 9 Transfer to national monitoring systems The most successful global monitoring system for food security is the one which is best integrated into national infrastructures!
10 San Diego, February 2010 AAAS Annual Meeting 10 Research activities: rainfall estimates Quick detection of inconsistencies in existing rainfall estimates (RFE, ECMWF etc ) by using the NDVI/rainfall relationship Residual between SPOT VGT NDVI and NDVI estimated as a function of RFE rainfall Residual between SPOT VGT NDVI and NDVI estimated as a function of ECMWF rainfall
11 San Diego, February 2010 AAAS Annual Meeting 11 Research activities: drought probabilty Area affected > 30% Second crop season Area affected > 30% Area affected > 50% Area affected > 50% First crop season
12 San Diego, February 2010 AAAS Annual Meeting 12 Research activities: improving crop masks Where are the crops? Crop monitoring at the global scale needs high quality crop masks, Crop area estimation is one application where despite a huge amount of research projects, the use of Earth observation data is still not optimized. Source: Hannerz, F. and Lotsch A, 2006
13 San Diego, February 2010 AAAS Annual Meeting 13 Close international cooperation The GEO Global Agricultural Monitoring Community of Practice (CoP) was established in 2007 at a meeting at the UN FAO in Rome, with 3 main objectives: Global mapping and monitoring of changes in distribution of cropland; Global monitoring of agricultural production; Effective early warning of famine The CoP will define the enabling conditions for a Global Agricultural Monitoring System of Systems At the European level the GMES program aims at providing free information services from Earth Observation systems to users and decision makers: Contributions from ESA, EUMETSAT and national entities
14 San Diego, February 2010 AAAS Annual Meeting 14 Sentinel 1-5 GMES: Sentinels and PROBA-V Since 1998 the VGT Mission (SPOT 4&5) has operationally delivered to its users daily global monitoring of continental surfaces at 1 km resolution PROBA V will provide global monitoring at 100 m to 300 m resolution (plus 1km like VGT) as from mid 2012: Daily above 35 and below -35 Every 2 days for the whole globe Proba V The VGT mission will be continued by the Sentinel 3 of GMES as from 2013
15 San Diego, February 2010 AAAS Annual Meeting 15 Crop monitoring tomorrow Earth Observation is playing a more and more crucial role in global crop monitoring, but research and resources are needed in order to: Increase quality of products Maintain continuity of main systems (long time series are more important new satellites every year Coordinate definitions of requirements for future earth observation products Reinforce ground data collection Aim at optimal integration of earth observation data into crop monitoring systems Support national capacities Ensure and improve link to decision makers
16 San Diego, February 2010 AAAS Annual Meeting 16 Thank you for your attention! Felix Rembold