NCoMM. NCML Commodity Market Monitor. NCoMM NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR WEEKLY ONLINE QUIZ. Click on the link OUTLOOK above to participate

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1 Cotton Sugar Soyben RM Seed Castor seed Turmeric Jeera 0 NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR ANSWERS & LUCKY WINNER OF PREVIOUS WEEK S QUIZ HOME WEEKLY ONLINE QUIZ Click on the link OUTLOOK above to participate Cotton Participate Sugar in our Soybean weekly quiz RM and Seed get a chance Castor win seed Amazon gift Turmeric coupons. Jeera Winners will be announced in next report and rewarded. OTHER DATA Sugar Tur Paddy/Rice Guar seed Sowing progress Advance estimates Kharif and rabi MSP

2 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Oct-18 0 Fundamental Report SUGAR Price Drivers Mandi FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY Buying by stockiest and bulk consumers for Diwali festival Mills continued to sell at prevailing rates to ease their old stocks New sugarcane crushing season is expected to start India s sugar production is estimated to be lower to 315 lakh tonnes in the current marking Maharashtra government has reduced the production estimate from 10.5 million tonnes to 10 million tonnes Export incentives extended by the Central government Based on Primary & Secondary Sources Price in Rs/Quintal Impact %Change Kolhapur Muzaffarnagar Delhi Sugar prices traded firm amid increase in buying by stockiest and bulk consumers for Diwali festival. As per market expert, demand may remain buoyant ahead of Diwali. However, mills continued to sell at prevailing rates to ease their old stocks as new crushing season is expected to start soon. Meanwhile, India is keen to sell more sugar to China to bridge widening trade deficit. Moreover, increased demand for Indian sugar has driven up export deals signed by domestic millers to about 3.5 lakh tonnes, according to the All India Sugar Traders Association (AISTA). Traders and export houses are trying their best to ensure that mills make most of the export incentives extended by the Central government for export of 5 million tonnes of sugar in India s sugar output is likely to decline marginally this year due to the possibility of lower cane yields. The drop in output is being attributed to white grub infestation in Maharashtra and water logging in the cane fields of Uttar Pradesh. For sugar season Maharashtra government has reduced the production estimate from 10.5 million tonnes to 10 million tonnes, while the Industry expects it could be lower than that. Indian Sugar Mills Association has lowered India s sugar production estimate by 11.26% at 315 lakh tonnes as compared to its earlier estimate of 355 lakh tonnes. Sugar production during the current SS is being reported to be lower than what was expected about 3-4 months back. The decline in sugar output would be beneficial for cane crushing mills, which are apprehensive about starting production for the current season amid fears of a worsening supply glut. India is estimated to have started this season with over 10 million tonnes of surplus inventory, resulting in lack of storage space for the new season output. The Maharashtra government has started issuing the mandatory crushing licences required for the mills to begin production in the country s top sugar producing state. Mills in Uttar Pradesh, however, are waiting for the cane to mature and hope to start crushing around Diwali. According to the First Advanced Estimate, India s sugarcane output is estimated around 384 million tonnes for compared to 377 million tonnes in the previous year. Sugar - M-grade : Muzaffarnagar 3,900 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100

3 Sep-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 0 Fundamental Report RICE/PADDY Price Drivers Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal %Change Abohar (1121) Narela (1121) Hanumangarh (1121) FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY Procurement of Rice reported at 77 lakh tonnes as against 56 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period Rice stocks with Government increased to million tonnes up by 19.2 per cent from million tonnes same period last year Decline in Rice acreage at lakh hectares as against lakh hectares last year Production of Kharif Rice in estimated higher at million as compared to million tonnes Expectation of higher export demand from China Higher Minimum Support Price for Paddy during season Impact Based on Primary & Secondary Sources All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 26 th October 2018 was at lakh tonnes against the procurement of 56 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year. Higher procurement has been received from northern states of Punjab (42.72 lakh tonnes), Haryana (32.80 lakh tonnes). India s Rice stocks in the central pool as on 01 st October 2018 increased at around million tonnes up by 19.2 per cent from million tonnes recorded during the corresponding period last year, according to data from the Food Corporation of India (FCI). Highest stock could be seen in the state of Telangana (18.0 lakh tonnes) followed by Andhra Pradesh (16.18 lakh tonnes) and Haryana (11.65 lakh tonnes) and Uttar Pradesh (11.53 Lakh tonnes). The highest stock recorded of million tonnes recorded in February According to the Ministry of Agriculture data, Kharif Rice acreage during season declined by 2 per cent at lakh hectares as against lakh hectares during As per the First Advance Estimates , production of Kharif Rice during is estimated at million tonnes. This is higher by 1.74 million tonnes than the last year s production of million tonnes. Further, it is higher by 6.64 million tonnes over the average production of Kharif Rice during the last five years. China recently sanctioned 4 more Indian Rice mills/companies to export rice. Now, 24 rice millers can export non-basmati rice to China. China is one of the largest rice producing and consuming countries in the world and imports 5 million tonnes of rice annually. India can export one million tonnes of rice to China. India s basmati-rice exports are expected to pick up as key importer Saudi Arabia is set to adopt easy residue parameters to take delivery of consignments. Rice export in the month of August 2018 was 8.39 lakh tonnes in which basmati rice contribution were around 2.89 lakh tonnes and non-basmati rice export in the month of August was 5.50 lakh tonnes the importing countries of non-basmati rice were Cote d ivories, Benin and Indonesia followed by Madagascar. During (January-December) Bangladesh rice import forecast is lowered to 1.70 million metric tonnes (MMT). According to sources 1.62 MMT of rice was imported during January to September The Government increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of paddy common by Rs 200 per quintal to Rs 1,750 and for Grade A MSP increased by Rs 180 at Rs 1770 for the marketing year crop year starting from October. Paddy : Sambha : Basti

4 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 0 Fundamental Report GUAR SEED Price Drivers Mandi FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY Guar seed crop in the country this season could be around lakh bags as against lakh bags last year Strong buying by stockists and crushers amid lower crop prospects Expectation of rise in exports in coming months Decline in Guar gum and Guar split exports from India Profit booking at higher levels Firmness in crude oil prices and Weak Rupee value against Dollar Impact Based on Primary & Secondary Sources Price in Rs/ Quintal %Change Bikaner Jodhpur Deesa Guar seed and Guar gum price so far this month rose by around 10 per cent mainly due to strong buying by stockists and crushers amid lower crop prospects. Guar seed and guar gum price will not sustain until exports of Guar gum don't increase. Overall Guar fundaments are also positive due to fall in production back- to -back this year, but the rise in prices is too sharp and ahead of fundamentals. Crude oil prices and production in U.S are rising and thus industry experts are optimistic that exports will rise in the coming months. According to traders, although crop is expected to be lower than last year, but increased selling by farmers amid attractive rates resulted in higher supply. The supply of Guar seed is likely to be on the higher side, i.e. above 50,000 daily till Diwali and thereafter it is likely to reduce as crop is lower than last year. Guar seed crop is expected to be much lower than what was anticipated and it could be said more precisely only after tracking arrivals in the month of November. According to various trade sources, Guar seed crop in the country this season (Oct-Sept) could be around lakh bags as against lakh bags last year in As per trade sources, export of guar gum has decreased in the month of September by per cent compared to previous month. India exported around tonnes of guar gum in the month of September at an average FOB of $ per tonne compared to tonnes in August at an average FOB of $ per tonne. Exports are expected to remain low in October-18 as well. As per trade sources, export of guar split has decreased in the month of September. Exports in the month of September are down by around per cent compared to previous month. India exported around 4299 tonnes of guar split in the month of September at an average FOB of $ per tonne. Of the total quantity, around 2660 tonnes and 1280 tonnes have been exported to China and Unites States respectively. As per the latest Advance Estimates of Department of Agriculture Rajasthan, Guar seed production for is estimated at lakh tonnes as compared to lakh tonnes in , Guarseed : Bikaner 4, , , , , ,900.00

5 Jun-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 0 Fundamental Report TUR Price Drivers Mandi FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY Expectation of relaunch of tur futures Higher acreage compared to last year contrary to the expected decline Crop loss/damage in certain belts of UP, Karnataka & MP Discount of Rs 15 per kilogram on pulses over wholesale market price to states for distribution under welfare schemes. Festive season demand Decrease in imports Quantitative restriction of 2 lakh tonnes/annum on tur import Based on Primary & Secondary Sources Price in Rs/ Quintal Impact %Change Wardha Mumbai Akola (Avg cmie) Tur demand from retail markets has started improving amidst the festive season and it would continue till November. Government is set to procure new crop at higher MSP of Rs 5675 and around 30 to 40 % crop is expected to be procured by govt.'s agencies. There is an anticipation of lower yield in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat due to moisture stress in the field. In Gulbarga market tur is being traded at Rs per qtl. depending on quality. For supporting Tur market government seems ready to start futures in Tur. Government had banned futures in tur and urad in 2007 due to unexpected spike in price. Various concerned ministries too seem in favor of re-launching futures and a proposal in this regard may be sent to SEBI this week and decision is expected by the end of October. Higher stock available in domestic market including central pool, average to normal crop so far would not allow market to move one way up despite higher MSP. On the other hand, likely higher export incentive (10 to 15%) and uncertain weather may support tur cash market in the weeks ahead. Import would be limited under restricted quota. However, any big spike is unlikely as selling from central pool stock continues. As per the government s final sowing report area sown under Tur is lakh ha against lakh ha sown till date last year and the normal of lakh ha. The production is expected to be about at 3.97 million tonnes in despite crop loss in some parts of major producing states. As per the 4th advance estimates for th Aug For Tur it is 4.25 mn MT, higher than third advance estimate of 4.18 million tonnes and lower than 4.87 million tonnes last year. States and UTs will be offered to lift lakh tonnes of Tur, Chana, Masoor, Moong and Urad at discount of Rs 15 per Kg over the prevailing wholesale market price on first come first serve basis. This will be one-time dispensation for a period of 12 months or complete disposal of lakh tonnes of pulses stock, whichever is earlier. As per the government data, tur imports dropped by 41% to 4.12 lakh tonnes in fiscal from 7.04 lakh tonnes during Lemon tur FAQ-Myanmar origin : Mumbai

6 0 THE WEEK THAT WAS PRICE TRACKER Basmati price firms up on weak rupee, low carryover stock Bajra procurement in Haryana may jump 10-fold Gujarat APMCs to go on strike from November 1 Sugar output seen falling to 31.5 mn tonnes in , lower than India's groundnut output may fall 29% this kharif season on lower rainfall ISMA cuts sugar output projection to 315 lt India likely to face hurdles in meeting 300-mn-kg tea export target Opinion Indian agriculture s problem of scale To purchase the India Commodity Year Book 2018, contact us at research@ncml.com Link for commodity-wise and market-wise prices and arrivals: als/commoditywisedailyreport2.aspx Official Production Estimates Fourth advance estimates & previous years estimates: Fourth Advance Estimates Commodity Latest Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago 29-Oct Oct Oct Oct-17 Wheat Chana Rice/Paddy Guarseed Sugar Tur MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.) Commodity KHARIF **NEW** Paddy Common paddy grade A Jowar Hybrid Jowar Maldandi Bajra Ragi Maize Tur/Arhar Moong Urad Groundnut Sunflower seed Soyabean black Sesamum Nigerseed Cotton (Medium Staple) Cotton (Long Staple) RABI Commodity Wheat Barley Gram Masur (Lentil) Rapeseed/Mustard Safflower *includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal # includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

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8 0 Action plan for Procurement of Pulses under PSS Scheme for KMS , PSS Guidelines, MSP & FAQ Norms

9 0 QUIZ ANSWERS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK y 1. CAI has pegged Ind ia's cotton production last year. lower than 2. SOPA has pegged India's soybean production last year. higher than 3. India's cumin (jeera) production in was 4.95 lakh tonnes THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY! Sno. Full Name Location Sno. Full Name Location 1 Amit Relekar Mumbai 28 Karmvir Behal 2 Pratima Goswami Gurgaon 29 Nitin Laxman Tambe Satara 3 Ajendra Singh Chauhan Gurgaon 30 Ashwani Khurana Suratgarh 4 Kuldip Singh Gurgaon 31 Dattatray Manwar Savali 5 Mohammadrafi Gandhidham 32 Praveen Kumar Mundra Ellenabad 6 Navdeep Kaur Ludhiana 33 Amol Dilip Nikam Dhawarwadi 7 Ansar Kochin 34 Javeed. M Davanagere 8 Rakesh Kumar Raut Gurgaon 35 Mahesh Kumar Ramaswamy Gurgaon 9 Annasaheb Sargar Sangli 36 Purushottam Kumar Ahmedabad Gujarat 10 Satyanarayan Das Bairagi Alote 37 Brijendra Srivastava Lucknow 11 Krishan Pal Singh Solanki Ratlam 38 Dilip Namdeo Bhopal 12 Ranjeet Singh Sri Ganganagar 39 Nagina Chander Gowda Mumbai 13 Shanmukha Davanagere 40 Pavankumarsingh Gulbarga 14 Sanjay Singh Ellenabad Suresh G Chennai 15 Vanisha Vij Delhi 42 Shashi Kumar Mishra Barauni 16 Vineet Poonia Ellenabad 43 Narendra Somarouthu Hyderabad 17 Sunny Karela Ellenabad 44 Om Singh Bikaner 18 Neha Sharma Gurgaon 45 Ansari Saddam Hussain Mumbai 19 Dadasaheb Salunkhe Tanang 46 Sandipkumar Nayak Ahmedabad 20 Anjali Gurugram 47 Babloo Kumar Gurgaon 21 Shimyonu Boddu Edumudi 48 Kumood Sharma Jodhpur 22 Rudrapaala Bharath Kumar Hydearabad 49 Dinesh Kumar Villupuram 23 Pampanagowda S Koppal 50 V Krishna Hyderabad 24 Anand Pandey Lucknow 51 Ranjit Pradhan Gurugram 25 Rajaram Bhilare Mumbai 52 Arun Kumar Gurugram 26 Pawan Joshi Haryana 53 Vinod Maurya Gurgaon 27 Aniket Sandage Alsand THE LUCKY WINNER IS Anand Pandey S&P, Lucknow; Emp Id: 3655 CONGRATULATIONS!

10 0 Advisory Team Nalin Rawal Head: CWIG Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM Research Team Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG Rajiv Kumar Associate: TCIG Disclaimer: This consultancy report has been prepared by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) for the sole benefit of the addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any third party in possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised reasonable care and skill in preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others. No other warranty, express or implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are based on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on which this report is based may adversely affect any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report. National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2017