ADVANCED BIOFUELS: TOWARDS A BIOBASED ECONOMY

Transcription

1 Trieste, CEI meeting 20 September 2012 ADVANCED BIOFUELS: TOWARDS A BIOBASED ECONOMY Lars Christian Hansen Novozymes, President Europe Chair, EBTP

2 NOVOZYMES IN BRIEF Food and Beverages Household care Bioenergy Agriculture Wastewater Solutions BioPharma Textiles Leather Pulp and Paper

3 DEPENDENCY ON OIL IS INCREASING Oil demand broken into domestic production and import EU oil production declining faster than consumption Source : World Energy Outlook 2011, International Energy Agency

4 THE BIOREFINERY AT THE CENTRE OF THE BIOBASED ECONOMY

5 INCREASED FOCUS ON THE BIOBASED ECONOMY WWF: Industrial biotechnology can save bn tonnes CO2 by 2030 World Economic Forum: Revenue potential USD230 billions by 2020 Bloomberg New Energy Finance: 2,4 mio jobs can be generated by 2030

6 BNEF STUDY BASED ON THE AGRICULTURAL POWERHOUSES United States Mexico EU-27 India China Brazil Argentina Australia

7 AGRICULTURAL RESIDUE AVAILABILITY IN THE 8 SELECT REGIONS Billion dry tons, 2030 Power 2.5% Husbandry 5% We assume a conservative maximum of 17.5% is available for biofuels production (30% for bagasse specifically) Total = 4,6bn Residue left on field 75% Advanced biofuels 17.5% Collecting only 25% of agricultural residue is a conservative methodology that takes into accounts technical and ecological constraints This purposefully aim to preserve soil quality and are in the low-to-medium range of comparable studies Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy 2012

8 WHAT S IN IT FOR THE WORLD China Agricultural Residues 221 mio dry ton Energy Security Growth Jobs CO 2 China could displace up to 37% of its gasoline consumption in bn USD 2.87 million man years 29% US 180 mio dry ton The US could displace up to 16% of its gasoline consumption in bn USD 1.37 million man years 11% Brazil India Europe Argentina Australia 177 mio dry ton Brazil could displace 83% of gasoline consumption in This is on top of sugarcane ethanol 110 mio dry ton India could displace up to 100% of its gasoline consumption in 2030 and still produce 4bn litres for export 151 mio dry ton The EU27 could displace 68% of its gasoline consumption in mio dry ton Argentina could replace up to 100% of its gasoline consumption by 2030 and potentially export ethanol 16 mio dry ton Australia could replace up to 19% of its gasoline consumption by bn USD 1.25 million man years 67% 329 bn USD 0.91 million man years 80% 532 bn USD 1.18 million man years 54% 65 bn USD 0.30 million man years 80% 58 bn USD 0.12 million man years 17% Mexico 20 mio dry ton Mexico could displace up to 7% of its gasoline consumption in bn USD 0.15 million man years 5% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy 2012

9 WHAT S IN IT FOR EU-27 Energy security The EU-27 can replace 68% of its annual gasoline consumption by 2030 with advanced biofuels Jobs Economy Environment Create almost 1.18 million jobs between 2010 and 2030 mainly in rural areas European players would be the major beneficiaries, including 80 billion USD domestic engineering, construction and feedstock market Save CO2 and reducing GHG emission from gasoline related road transport by 54% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy 2012

10 WHAT S IN IT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE FUEL DEMAND RESIDUE POTENTIAL JOB OPPORTUNITIES, (man-years of employment) NEXT-GENERATION ETHANOL POTENTIAL, 2030 (billion litres per annum) 100, , REVENUE, (EUR bn) POTENTIAL GHG SAVING, (mtco2e) MAJOR RESIDUE SOURCES Wheat, maize, barley Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, next-generation bioproducts: opportunities in central and eastern Europe 2012

11 THE MAIN CHALLENGE: OVERCOMING THE INNOVATION DEATH VALLEY Research -> Knowledge Biobased products There is a gap in demonstration scale advanced bio-refineries to mature technologies and commercialization /production of high value products

12 BARRIERS TO DEPLOYMENT IN EUROPE Need for biomass collection infrastructure Conversion economics economies of scale No incentives for demand for biobased product No market for residues Biorefinery financing

13 THE ROLE OF POLICY Guiding principle Secure demand early and set ambitious target to provide investor confidence Incentivise supply simultaneously to lower the cost in a short period Incentivise supply Secure demand Loan guarantees Production incentives for early stage plants Support biomass development and collection Supply Demand 4 Mandatory bioproducts targets 5 Remove technical barriers e.g. blend walls

14 POLICY support & COORDINATION ARE needed Financing IB SMEs CAP REFORM Agriculture Reform sugar regime Resource Efficiency REACH EU Climate Change Policy Environment EU Biobased Economy Cohesion HORIZON 2020 EU BIOBASED ECONOMY Cohesion & Structural funds Research Energy KBBE FP7 Industry Lead Market Initiative KET action plan Renewable Energy Directive Biomass Action Plan TO REALIZE THE POTENTIAL IN EUROPE

15 WHAT COULD A PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP DO? a solution?

16 Instrument: biobased Public-private partnership Foster radical innovation, from R&D and deployment to market pull, to deliver biobased products superior, or at least comparable to, non-biobased products in terms of price, performance and availability, and environmental benefits Feedstock Fostering a sustainable biomass supply and building new value chains Biorefineries Optimising efficient processing through R&D and upscaling in large-scale demo/flagship biorefineries Markets, products and policies Developing markets for biobased products and optimising policy frameworks

17 Budget for biobased PPP Public contribution: up to 1 bn for a period of 7 years ( ) Private contribution: Founding Members committed investments of 2.8bn in collaborative research, development and demonstration of biobased technologies In addition, the PPP should further leverage and facilitate access to funding from other companies and funding sources such as national agencies, research institutions, private foundations or venture capital firms.

18 Founding Corporate members

19