Creating a bioenergy value chain in Ireland

Transcription

1 Creating a bioenergy value chain in Ireland Dr Maeve Henchion, Dr Laura Devaney & Ultan Shanahan Irish Renewable Energy Summit Crowne Plaza Hotel, Santry, Dublin 13 th December 2016

2 Agenda Defining the bioeconomy in Ireland Overview of BioÉire project New value chain opportunities in the Irish bioeconomy Conclusions

3 The Bioeconomy Bioeconomy refers to all economic activity that is derived from the continued commercial application of biotechnology (Bioeconomy Corporation, 2016) Economic growth driven by the development of renewable biological resources and biotechnologies to produce sustainable products, employment and income (Rosegrant et al., 2013, p139) A vision for the future society (Socaciu, 2014, p1) A future in which we rely on renewable biological resources to meet our needs for food, materials and energy (EC, 2014) The sustainable production of renewable resources from land, fisheries and aquaculture environments and their conversion into food, feed, fibre bio-based products (EC, 2015)

4 Overview of Bioeconomy Policy in G7, incl. the EU Source: German Bioeconomy Council, 2015

5 (Potocnik, 2015) Gaining traction at global, EU and national scales.market opportunities only beginning to be exploited

6 Developments happening already BUT challenges remain. Key question/challenge now = what to focus on from a national perspective No coherent national bioeconomy strategy in Ireland Until recently treated within context of the green economy, blue economy and sustainable development Need to connect up quickly innovation & ideas out there Draw on domestic strengths Identify near-wins and priorities for development Highlight stakeholder groups for engagement Value chain development in the bioeconomy must be fully supported by suite of policy measures (e.g. taxation, public procurement, sustainability and safety criteria, etc.)

7 BioÉire: a bioeconomy for Ireland Launched April 2015 to assess the feasibility and facilitate the pursuit of bioeconomy opportunities Aims to evaluate the growth opportunities, policies and initiatives shaping Ireland s transformation to a sustainable, low carbon economy and identify bioeconomy priorities for Ireland to maximise national income, exports and job creation. To identify up to 8 commercial opportunities and assess their technical, economic and environmental viability for future development Make recommendations on the development frameworks necessary to underpin their exploitation Knowledge base for national strategy

8 WP3: BioÉire Delphi Study Delphi as a forecasting tool based on rounds of surveys with the same group of experts Anonymous forecasts made on two or more rounds by a group of independent heterogeneous experts who receive feedback between rounds (Armstrong, 1999, p351) Future is uncertain but can be approximated with reasonable accuracy by a group of knowledgeable individuals (Henchion and McIntyre, p3) Anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback and statistical aggregation of feedback as key features of Delphi methodology Allows for positive attributes of interacting groups to be obtained whilst diminishing negatives (e.g. pressure to conform, status incongruity)

9 BioÉire Value Web Adapted from Nita et al. (2013)

10 BioÉire Delphi - Respondent profile

11 Preliminary Quantitative Results: Top Rated Chains Top Chains: median score of 6 which means that 50% of respondents either agreed or strongly agreed with the potential of these chains Value Chain 3 Value Chain 14 Value Chain 15

12 Preliminary Quantitative Results Next highest in potential: seven chains presented a median of 5 by Round 2. Five of these achieved the same score in Round 1 including: Value Chain 5 Value Chain 6 Value Chain 7

13 Preliminary Quantitative Results Median of 5, Round 1 and Round 2: Value Chain 10 Value Chain 16 Median of 5, Round 2: Value Chain 2 Value Chain 17

14 BioÉire Delphi Qualitative Results: examples from energy

15 Value Chain 14 Agreement Disagreement Creation of de-carbonised gaseous energy in a world of fossil fuel limitations Abundant resource supply base The energy component should only be used when all the added value products have been produced from the primary waste the (VC14) Origin Green campaign Opportunity to combine with other feedstocks Proven technology and waste solution Market demand for renewable energy No costs of conversion to biomethane In keeping with renewable energy targets and Use of homogenised AD residues Opportunity to create networks of AD hubs Diversify farm income Continuously improving technology options Assisting rural development Potential for PPPs Challenges of scale and fragmentation of feedstock supply Need for investment and possible grant-aid Land spreading is the cheapest way of dealing with agricultural waste Unfamiliarity with benefits of biogas and use of agricultural waste for AD Planning permission challenges re AD hubs Risk management with transporting waste Costs/logistics of storing/transporting biogas Potential for higher value options Risk to investors in low energy prices Yes, but with in-line options to extract valuable Low carbon content of slurry resulting in low P and N for biofertilisers (VC 14) energy output when processed alone Potential longer term opportunity given infrastructure investment required

16 Value Chain 15 Agreement Disagreement Policy drivers with renewable energy Preference for food waste reduction Higher value potential there and targets and the Landfill Directive Higher value applications available two Mitigation billion of more methane people emissionsto feed, we including food and biochemical uses can Plentiful get energy supply base; from brown elsewhere bin roll out than Lack of infrastructure and scale in Ireland Should only be exploited after waste High yielding feedstock for energy Regulatory, planning and licencing issues stealing from the food chain wave, Opportunities for small scale ADs & co- Predicted reliance on government reduction methods and potential reextraction/exploitation in solar, digestion wind with energy other feedstocks possible if incentives the food and subsidies sector is running Nutrient-rich out digestate of oil for (VC15) land Waste collection/transporting logistics exhausted (VC 15) Established technology base Large investment required High demand for biogas Food waste Debate to re energy appropriate is business a waste model of a Adding value to a waste resource Perceived low payback over long valuable resource. Integrated Ability to learn from international best timeframe practice and proven technologiesbiorefining Slow is technology key and uptake energy in Ireland should Potential to integrate with other value be one of Concerns multiple regarding products gate fees arising in the future chains to expand both inputs & outputs from any resource (VC 15)

17 Value Chain 10 Use for combustion should Agreement certainly be considered, but Predicted increase in supply and ideally only for residual material after other components have been extracted (VC10) underutilised feedstock in private forests Proven transformation technologies Changes in residential structures and consumer demand for renewable energy Opportunities to learn from other countries Disagreement Economics of forestry in Ireland makes it difficult to compete with international imports Environmental negatives associated with small scale, decentralised plants Higher value applications before energy Lack of infrastructure Policy drivers re renewable energy targets Dependency on government support Local supply for local use I think there Consistency are certainly and quality of feedstock (e.g. Replacing non-renewable fossil fuels opportunities moisture, to chlorine, utilise wood this mix) material for Ease of creating local hubs Vulnerable to low fossil fuel prices bioenergy, but there are higher value Presence of Wood Fuel Quality Assurance Uncertainties regarding end market demand products (higher financially and higher up the waste hierarchy) that could be Schemes mitigate concerns regarding and incentive to switch feedstock consistency Lower fuel efficiency than current gas Provide power to other biobased industries Limited impact on national scale made I'm thinking of biochemical products, wood derivatives etc (VC10)

18 BioÉire next steps. Overall strong preference for value chains where inputs involved processing and by-product side streams circular bioeconomy Integrated Value Web Selection of 8 value chains for further analysis Preliminary feasibility assessment Feasibility analysis framework techno-economic AND socio-environmental Confirmation of 8 prioritised value chains to DAFM built around sectoral action plan Recommendations for supportive framework conditions Policy, innovation, R&D, infrastructural and market supports

19 Take home messages The bioeconomy is of relevance to this sector Opportunities are emerging Need to consider where bioenergy fits within it and influence definition of bioeconomy in Ireland accordingly Bioeconomy has major development potential and could be at the heart of the transition to a new economic model BUT it has to be ecologically and socially sustainable, organised in a responsible and fair way (Potocnik, 2015)

20 If opportunity doesn t knock, build a door: Ireland s future bioeconomy Acknowledge financial contribution from DAFM Stimulus Fund for project ref 14/SF/857 Dr. Maeve Henchion maeve.henchion@teagasc.ie Dr. Laura Devaney laura.devaney@teagasc.ie Ultan Shanahan ultan.shanahan@teagasc.ie Funded by the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine s competitive research programme