Linking IA Models and ESMs

Transcription

1 Linking IA Models and ESMs KATE CALVIN JGCRI College Park, MD January 6,

2 Types of IA-ESM Linkages Method Advantages Disadvantages Examples A Off-line information exchange, one-way Work with existing terminology and tools Transparent information exchange Flexibility Separate research strategies B Improved IAMs Allows for good representation of uncertainty Model complexity tailored to question Detail in treatment of socioeconomic processes C Improved ESMs Higher resolution analyses than in IAMs Detail in treatment of biophysical processes D Full Coupling Assessment of feedbacks Highest degree of consistency Source: van Vuuren et al. (2012) Feedbacks are only captured via (one-single) iterations Potential inconsistencies Lack of detail in treatment of biophysical processes Lack of detail in treatment of socio-economic processes Limitation of model runs limits representation of uncertainty Technical difficulties Lack of representation of uncertainty Inflexibility Complexity/[opaqueness] Limitations in knowledge may hamper progress CMIP AgMIP MAGICC calibration to CMIP GCAM-Albedo Urban/crop component of CESM iesm IMAGE-CNRM January 6,

3 A. Offline One-Way Information Exchange: IAM to ESMs IS92 CO 2 Emissions (1994) IAMs Provide Scenarios for ESMs 30 GtC/yr GtC/yr Year Scenario SRES CO 2 Emissions (2000) IS92 A IS92 B IS92 C IS92 D IS92 E IS92 F Year Scenario IS92 A IS92 B IS92 C IS92 D IS92 E IS92 F A1 A1G 30 A1T A2 B1 B2 GtC/yr RCP CO 2 Emissions (2011) Year January 6, Scenario IS92 A IS92 B IS92 C IS92 D IS92 E IS92 F A1 A1G A1T A2 B1 B2 RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP3 PD (2.6) RCP 8.5 GtC/yr SSP CO 2 Emissions (2016) Year IS92 A IS92 B IS92 C IS92 D IS92 E IS92 F A1 A1G A1T A2 B1 B2 RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP3 PD (2.6) RCP 8.5 SSP3 Ref SSP4 34 SSP1 26 SSP1 Ref SSP2 45

4 A. Offline One-Way Information Exchange: IAM to ESMs via CMIP The CMIP5 Process GMT Rise in CMIP5 IPCC AR5 Chapter 12 January 6,

5 A. Offline One-Way Information Exchange: ESMs to IAMs Energy ESMs Provide Climate Information for IAMs Water Land Zhou et al. (2014) Hanasaki et al. (2014) January 6, Nelson et al. (2014)

6 A. Offline One-Way Information Exchange: ESMs to IAMs via AgMIP The AgMIP Process RCP exercise Integrated Assessment Models RCPs (Global Gridded Emissions Scenarios) General Circulation Models Global Gridded Climate Change CMIP5 % Change from Reference Change in Cropland Area in 2050 IPSL - LPJmL HadGEM2 - LPJmL IPSL - DSSAT HadGEM2 - DSSAT Global Gridded Crop Models Global Gridded Crop Yields ISIMIP AgMIP 0-2 AIM ENVISAGE EPPA FARM GTEM Source: Redrawn from Nelson et al. (2014) Results from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project MAGNET GCAM GLOBIOM IMPACT MAgPIE Global Economic Models January 6,

7 Types of IA-ESM Linkages Method Advantages Disadvantages Examples A Off-line information exchange, one-way Work with existing terminology and tools Transparent information exchange Flexibility Separate research strategies B Improved IAMs Allows for good representation of uncertainty Model complexity tailored to question Detail in treatment of socioeconomic processes C Improved ESMs Higher resolution analyses than in IAMs Detail in treatment of biophysical processes D Full Coupling Assessment of feedbacks Highest degree of consistency Source: van Vuuren et al. (2012) Feedbacks are only captured via (one-single) iterations Potential inconsistencies Lack of detail in treatment of biophysical processes Lack of detail in treatment of socio-economic processes Limitation of model runs limits representation of uncertainty Technical difficulties Lack of representation of uncertainty Inflexibility Complexity/intransparency Limitations in knowledge may hamper progress CMIP AgMIP MAGICC calibration to CMIP GCAM-Albedo CLM-Urban CLM-Crop iesm IMAGE-CNRM January 6,

8 B. Improved IAMs ESMs are used to develop parameterized components of IAMs IAM Climate Modules Updating IAM Climate Modules Van Vuuren et al. (2009) Meinshausen et al. (2011) 8

9 B. Improved IAMs Used CLM to Parameterize GCAM Radiative Forcing in 2100 Source: Jones et al. (2015) January 6,

10 Types of IA-ESM Linkages Method Advantages Disadvantages Examples A Off-line information exchange, one-way Work with existing terminology and tools Transparent information exchange Flexibility Separate research strategies B Improved IAMs Allows for good representation of uncertainty Model complexity tailored to question Detail in treatment of socioeconomic processes C Improved ESMs Higher resolution analyses than in IAMs Detail in treatment of biophysical processes D Full Coupling Assessment of feedbacks Highest degree of consistency Source: van Vuuren et al. (2012) Feedbacks are only captured via (one-single) iterations Potential inconsistencies Lack of detail in treatment of biophysical processes Lack of detail in treatment of socio-economic processes Limitation of model runs limits representation of uncertainty Technical difficulties Lack of representation of uncertainty Inflexibility Complexity/intransparency Limitations in knowledge may hamper progress CMIP AgMIP MAGICC calibration to CMIP GCAM-Albedo CLM-Urban CLM-Crop iesm IMAGE-CNRM January 6,

11 C. Improved ESMs Land Component of the CESM Source: NCAR January 6,

12 Types of IA-ESM Linkages Method Advantages Disadvantages Examples A Off-line information exchange, one-way Work with existing terminology and tools Transparent information exchange Flexibility Separate research strategies B Improved IAMs Allows for good representation of uncertainty Model complexity tailored to question Detail in treatment of socioeconomic processes C Improved ESMs Higher resolution analyses than in IAMs Detail in treatment of biophysical processes D Full Coupling Assessment of feedbacks Highest degree of consistency Source: van Vuuren et al. (2012) Feedbacks are only captured via (one-single) iterations Potential inconsistencies Lack of detail in treatment of biophysical processes Lack of detail in treatment of socio-economic processes Limitation of model runs limits representation of uncertainty Technical difficulties Lack of representation of uncertainty Inflexibility Complexity/intransparency Limitations in knowledge may hamper progress CMIP AgMIP MAGICC calibration to CMIP GCAM-Albedo CLM-Urban CLM-Crop iesm IMAGE-CNRM January 6,

13 D. Full Coupling IAMs and ESMs can be Fully Coupled IMAGE + CNRM-CM3 iesm GCAM CESM Voldoire et al. (2007) Collins et al. (2015) January 6,

14 D. Full Coupling Land Carbon Storage Across ESMs iesm Change in carbon storage when two-way feedbacks are included 15$ GCAM CESM 10$ 5$ Pg#C# 0$!5$ land$ ocean$ atm$!10$ Collins et al. (2015) 14!15$ 2005$ 2025$ 2045$ Year# 2065$ 2085$ January 6, 2016 Jones et al. (2013)

15 Ongoing & Future Research Directions " A. Offline, one-way coupling " CMIP6 " ISI-MIP " B. Improved IAMs " Emulators (including pattern scaling) " Natural emissions sources and other science insights " C. Improved ESMs " Improved crop modeling " Water management " D. Full Coupling " Continued experiments using iesm " Improved coupling January 6,

16 Ongoing & Future Research Directions " Workshop on IA-ESM coupling " Improved emulators " Developing scenarios for improved climate science January 6,

17 THANK YOU!!! January 6,