Technology, T J. Tully, S. Hsu. Introduction

Transcription

1 Technology, J. Tully, S. Hsu Research Note 13 August 2003 Smart Pills Could Prove Sweet for Semiconductor Vendors Pills containing electronic devices may become a big semiconductor market, with thousands swallowed daily. Pill-sized imaging devices are already in use, but capsules that dispense drugs at set times have most potential. Core Topic Emerging Trends and Technologies: The Future of Technology, Business and Society Key Issue What are the most disruptive trends and most significant opportunities arising from emerging information technology? Introduction A smart pill is a device shaped like a capsule that is swallowed by patients or implanted in the body. It contains a sophisticated electronic system capable of a wide range of functions, from internal imaging to guided intervention. Several types of smart pill could evolve over the next 30 years, as summarized in Table 1. These devices represent a large opportunity for semiconductor vendors and their suppliers. Table 1 Smart Pill Types Purpose Time to First Commercial Use Technologies Needed Imaging Available now Image sensor, light source, processor, memory, data compression, wireless interface, battery Health screening 7 to 10 years As for imaging, plus higher-resolution image sensor (perhaps with zoom), DSP and more sophisticated chemical analysis capabilities Medication dispensing 10 to 15 years MEMS injector, thermal and chemical sensors, timer, processor, wireless transceiver, battery Drug synthesis 15 to 20 years As for medication dispensing, plus microreactor (or molecular synthesis) and additional analysis capabilities Guided intervention 20 to 30 years Technologies needed depend on purpose of intervention DSP = Digital signal processor MEMS = Micro electromechanical systems Source: Gartner Research Smart Imaging Pills The smart pills already used in the medical industry for diagnostic purposes are capsules that can be swallowed by patients to enable nonsurgical imaging of the gastrointestinal tract. These pills typically contain a radio transmitter, battery, light source and a digital camera, which captures images as it passes through the digestive tract. The images are either stored in the pill (for collection later) or, more commonly, transmitted Gartner Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

2 wirelessly to receivers attached to the patient's body. The position of the capsule within the body is also recorded as it travels, which is critical for locating problem areas. One vendor that makes these pills is Given Imaging, for which Micron Technology supplies pill-sized cameras. At present, smart imaging pills are produced in relatively low numbers. At over $100 each, they are expensive, and there is limited demand, as they are used only under close medical supervision. Smart Health-Screening Pills With additional sensor analysis, later generations of these devices could allow people to self-check health conditions at home. The pill would provide a result to show if the person needed to seek medical attention. In this scenario, smart imaging pills would be the first type of smart pill to enter mass use. From an IT perspective, it makes sense to minimize the complexity of the pill and put more complexity into external equipment. This is the approach that would be used in hospitals. But the requirements for a consumer product are different. The concept is for a user to buy a card of, say, six pills from a pharmacy. Once a pill is swallowed and retrieved, a small green or red light shows if the user should seek medical attention. Such a pill would be entirely disposable consumer product, being selfcontained and thrown away after use. Smart Medication Pills Though health-screening pills could become a serious market, smart medication pills could have an even bigger impact in terms of revenue. The concept is for patients to swallow, or be implanted with, a pill containing several doses of medication. Potentially, each pill could contain several types of medication. Small micro electromechanical systems (MEMS)-based containers in the pill would hold and dispense the medication at prescribed times. The timing and dosage could be influenced by, for example, sensor analysis of temperature and stomach acidity. Such pills would be particularly useful for elderly patients who often forget what medicine to take when. Timers for the pill's embedded software and real-time operating system would manage and control the release of medication. The system would also be able to dispense different medication on different days a task that is particularly difficult for patients to remember. But it is unlikely that such pills will be reusable. If they do reach mass 13 August

3 acceptance, the pills will represent a massive disposable electronics market, with associated environmental considerations. Later generations of pills would probably be made using a form of biodegradable technology to minimize pollution. Variations of this technology would also be suitable for implants; for example, implanting a pill in a fixed location under the skin. Implanted electronics are already widely used in animals for livestock identification and "pet passports." ChipRx and MicroCHIPS are developing implantable medication devices. Similar devices could be implanted near an injury or a tumor to aid healing. A mass market for smart medication pills is likely to take at least 15 years to emerge, but limited use is possible sooner. The main obstacle to rapid adoption will be gaining approval from national drug administrations. Drug Synthesis Smart medication pills could eventually include drug synthesis. The need for this will largely be driven by cost. Unit costs must be low enough (between $3 and $5) to make widescale production economical. Therefore, each pill type must be highly standardized and usable by a large number of people. This is possible only if the required drugs are "manufactured" within the module using basic chemical components. Some of these chemicals could be drawn from the body itself. The technology required for such a miniature "processing factory" is slowly emerging. MEMS-based microreactors are being developed that contain various pressure, heating and mixing chambers, which are proving extremely efficient at producing chemicals. Organizations working on this technology include GlaxoSmithKline, Clariant and CPC-Systems. In the longer term, molecular synthesis could be facilitated using nanotechnology self-assembly techniques. Such systems require close real-time control using sophisticated embedded software. Analysis, probably using digital signal processing, would also form an important part of these systems. Drug synthesis is unlikely to be used in pill form for at least 15 years. Guided Intervention Systems In 20 years' time, smart pills could perform minor surgery; for example, taking a small biopsy or treating a localized area of the stomach or intestine. Smaller capsules, probably carrying 13 August

4 radioactive material, could be directed to tumor sites after being injected into the bloodstream. There could also be self-destructing nanoparticle sensors to detect compounds, such as glucose and cholesterol, whose overproduction may be a sign of disease. Sensors detecting a chemical imbalance would send a signal to a smart medication pill implanted in the patient, to release a compound to correct the imbalance. The sensors would then self-destruct after a few days. Forces for Change Economic viability is the main factor underlying the adoption of most new technologies. Smart pills bring a number of economic benefits: The number of exploratory operations and endoscopies will be cut by the use of smart imaging pills, saving operating theatre running costs and freeing up medical professionals. Home visits by doctors could be reduced by pills capable of rudimentary diagnosis, saving costs and doctors' time. Problems in the supply chain, caused by the huge quantities of pills demanded, could be alleviated by the availability of drug synthesis pills. Because they are generic in nature, the number of "catalog items" from pharmaceutical companies could be reduced dramatically. Gartner believes that such economic benefits will drive smart pill development and increase adoption to a level where economies of scale lead to acceptable consumer prices. This will present suppliers with a challenge, as the advanced technologies will be costly to develop. Safety is another big issue. Because the smart pill is a relatively new and advanced technology, people will be concerned about its safety. What material are the capsules made of? Is there a risk they may break apart inside a patient? Could they malfunction? Safety of these technologies will have to be proven at each stage of development before people adopt these nextgeneration pills. This is likely to be a slow process. Legislation and government approvals will play a major part in this safety question, delaying the adoption of the technology. Bottom Line: Widespread use of smart pills is no longer just the subject for science fiction. Smart imaging pills are already in use and smart medication pills could represent a significant disposable electronics market, with an estimated demand of at least 2 billion pills per year. More importantly, smart pills 13 August

5 represent the beginning of a major partnership of the electronics and pharmaceutical industries. 13 August