Drivers of Change: Opportunities & Challenges for Quarantine Stations

Transcription

1 Drivers of Change: Opportunities & Challenges for Quarantine Stations January 20, 2005 Bill Rowley, M.D. Institute for Alternative Futures

2 How Fast is the World Changing? 2

3 How Fast is the World Changing? On a scale of 1 to 5: 1 = Minimal amount of orderly change 5 = An incredible amount of unpredictable change and instability 3

4 Ten years of surprises 4

5 Ten years of surprises 5

6 A tale X =8.6 Billion 6

7 The Power of Doubling 40 Billions of Grains Times Faster of Rice billion times faster X doublings of computer performance 8 billion times faster X Doublings 35 7

8 Rapid Technological Advances 5 4 X ,223,372,036,854,775,808 grains Forecast for 2050:? X Forecast 2020: Home PC with computing power of human brain Doublings 8

9 Rapid Technological Advances Materials & Nanotechnology Physics & mathematics Biotechnology Information Technologies 9

10 How Fast is the World Changing? Doubling Time Computing Power Computer Applications Organizational Change Societal Change Human Nature 1.5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs? Decades Eons 10

11 Why look at the future? Successful futurists don t predict the future. They interpret the present in a new way that makes more sense, the farther one looks into the future. Peter Schwartz 11

12 Big Drivers of Change Global economy New disease threats Advances in biotechnology Advances in information Advances in education Advances in management & changing roles 12

13 Global Economy Interconnected, interdependent and accelerated 13

14 World Economic Growth Free 40 flowing global movement 30 World Trade World GDP $3 20 Trillion Daily Trillions of Dollars Free flowing global movement of money Source: Vital Signs 2000, Worldwatch Institute; Updated data World Bank

15 Shipping 15

16 Trends in Air Travel Projected Air Travel Passengers in US: International 117 million 213 million Total 641 million 1058 million Source: FAA Forecast Fact Sheet, Fiscal Years

17 Migration & Immigration 8.5 million illegal aliens in US - 500K/yr 150 million labor migrants worldwide 500,000 seek asylum per year globally 10.4 million refugees globally Sources: Migration Policy Institute, Immigration and Naturalization Service 17

18 Global Diseases 1/3 World s People Carry TB Global AIDS Epidemic 40 Sub-Saharan Africa World Total 500,000,000 Infected With Malaria Millions Million more have died Mad Cow Disease 10 20% of Adults in Sub-Saharan Africa infected Number of People Living With HIV/AIDS SARS 18

19 Global Disease Threats? 19

20 Global Disease Threats? Bioterrorism? 20

21 Advances in Biotechnology 21

22 Biotechnology Understanding at cellular level Genes Diagnostics Pharmacogenomics Prevention Proteins Disease Underlying Basic Biologic Defect Targeted Drug Therapy Stem Cell Therapy Gene Therapy 22

23 Biotechnology Understanding at cellular level Genes Proteins Disease 25,000 Understanding systems biology used DNA is not to engineer destiny a super responsive immune 300,000 system to enhance resistance and 100 resiliency Trillion Cells 23

24 Biotechnology Understanding at cellular level Therapy individualized to the unique characteristics of the patient s s disease 24

25 Biotechnology Pharmacogenomics Physician prescribes codeine based on symptoms But, it doesn t t work! Genome Screening Individualize Therapy 25

26 Biotechnology Biomonitoring 26

27 Biotechnology Biomonitoring Smart Dust Immunosensor Nano-needle Probing Cell Smart Dust Mote Integrated Microfluidic Circuit Chip 27

28 Patients Play Bigger Role Teleconference 28

29 Information Technologies Smart Home Please remember to take your medicine 29

30 Advances in Information Technology 30

31 Information Technologies Electronic Health Record 31

32 Information Technologies Pervasive Computing 32

33 Accessing Knowledge Tools to organize, search & integrate large bodies of data Natural language processing Artificial intelligence Data mining system Deep Web Grid computing Open source research 33

34 Advances in Education 34

35 Customization of Learning 35

36 Advances in Collaborative Management 36

37 Collaborations 37

38 Questions for the Future How might arriving international travelers be screened? Where/When? How might vessels be inspected? How might a surveillance system monitor for onset of epidemics? How might diverse organizations work collaboratively? 38

39 Questions for the Future How might education and just in time training be provided? What new skill sets might be required? How might isolation and quarantine be done? How might the role of QS evolve? 39

40 Why think about the future? Your view of the future affects your perceptions and goals, which affect your actions today. Your actions today shape your future! 40

41 For More Information Contact: Institute for Alternative Futures 100 N. Pitt St., Suite 235 Alexandria, VA Think Outside the Box 41