EGB Relative Value Report. March 16, 2015
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- Bruno Morrison
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1 EGB Relative Value Report March 16, 2015
2 Sep-16 Sep-17 Oct-18 Jun-19 Jul-20 Sep-21 Apr-22 Nov-22 Oct-23 Oct-24 Mar-26 Jul-27 May-34 Mar-37 Jun-44 Jan-62 Relative Value Report Austria, 13-Mar bp 2Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 30Y 15 bp 10 bp 5 bp 0 bp -5 bp -10 bp -15 bp -20 bp -25 bp -30 bp -35 bp -40 bp -45 bp -50 bp 60d Average 60d Min 60d Max Asset Swap Spread Vertical bars show the +/- 2 confidence interval for the last 60 trading sessions Gianluca Ziglio Fixed Income Strategy gianluca.ziglio@sunrisebrokers.com Tel
3 Austria, 13-Mar-15 Bond Maturity Yrs Yield Last ASW 60d Avg Diff (bp) Std Dev (bp) 60d Min 60d Max Z-Score DV01 Cheap Rich Carry& Roll-Down¹ (1M on EUR 1mm) 1M Roll- Down (bp) RAGB 4 09/15/16 15-Sep % RAGB /20/17 20-Feb % RAGB /15/17 15-Sep % RAGB /15/18 15-Jan % RAGB /19/18 19-Oct % RAGB /15/19 15-Mar % RAGB /18/19 18-Jun % RAGB 0 1/4 10/18/19 18-Oct % RAGB /15/20 15-Jul % RAGB3 1/2 09/15/21 15-Sep % RAGB /20/22 20-Apr % RAGB /22/22 22-Nov % RAGB 1 3/4 10/20/23 20-Oct % RAGB /21/24 21-Oct % RAGB /15/26 15-Mar % RAGB6 1/4 07/15/27 15-Jul % RAGB /23/34 23-May % RAGB /15/37 15-Mar % RAGB /20/44 20-Jun % RAGB /26/62 26-Jan % , M BES² (bp) ¹ On a EUR 1mm cash invested in each security for 1M assuming GC rates. ² Break Even Spread between the bond's forward and spot yields. Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
4 Austria 1bp 0bp Austria 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 54% 53% 52% 51% 20bp 18bp 16bp 14bp 12bp 10bp 8bp 6bp 4bp 2bp -1bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y 40Y 45Y 50Y 1M Carry & RD (bp) 1M BES² (bp) 1M Roll-Down (bp) 50% 0bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y 40Y 45Y 50Y Prob {Yield at horizon Forward Yield} (lhs) Austria 1M 60d yield volatility (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
5 Mar-16 Sep-16 Jun-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25 Mar-26 Mar-28 Jun-31 Mar-32 Jun-34 Mar-35 Mar-41 Jun-45 Relative Value Report Belgium, 13-Mar bp 55 bp 45 bp 35 bp 25 bp 15 bp 5 bp -5 bp -15 bp -25 bp -35 bp -45 bp 2Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 30Y -55 bp 60d Average 60d Min 60d Max Asset Swap Spread Vertical bars show the +/- 2 confidence interval for the last 60 trading sessions Gianluca Ziglio Fixed Income Strategy gianluca.ziglio@sunrisebrokers.com Tel
6 Belgium, 13-Mar-15 Bond Maturity Yrs Yield Last ASW 60d Avg Diff (bp) Std Dev (bp) 60d Min 60d Max Z-Score DV01 Cheap Rich Carry& Roll-Down¹ (1M on EUR 1mm) 1M Roll- Down (bp) BGB 2 3/4 03/28/16 28-Mar % BGB 3 1/4 09/28/16 28-Sep % BGB 4 03/28/17 28-Mar % BGB 3 1/2 06/28/17 28-Jun % BGB 5 1/2 09/28/17 28-Sep % BGB 4 03/28/18 28-Mar % BGB 1 1/4 06/22/18 22-Jun % BGB 4 03/28/19 28-Mar % BGB 3 09/28/19 28-Sep % BGB 3 3/4 09/28/20 28-Sep % BGB 4 1/4 09/28/21 28-Sep % BGB 4 03/28/22 28-Mar % BGB 4 1/4 09/28/22 28-Sep % BGB 2 1/4 06/22/23 22-Jun % BGB /22/24 22-Jun % BGB /22/25 22-Jun % , BGB 4 1/2 03/28/26 28-Mar % BGB 5 1/2 03/28/28 28-Mar % BGB 1 06/22/31 22-Jun % , BGB 4 03/28/32 28-Mar % BGB 3 06/22/34 22-Jun % BGB 5 03/28/35 28-Mar % BGB 4 1/4 03/28/41 28-Mar % BGB 3 3/4 06/22/45 22-Jun % , M BES² (bp) ¹ On a EUR 1mm cash invested in each security for 1M assuming GC rates. ² Break Even Spread between the bond's forward and spot yields. Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
7 Belgium 2bp 1bp 0bp Belgium 60% 58% 56% 54% 52% 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 40bp 35bp 30bp 25bp 20bp 15bp 10bp 5bp -1bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y 1M Carry & RD (bp) 1M BES² (bp) 1M Roll-Down (bp) 40% 0bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y Prob {Yield at horizon Forward Yield} (lhs) Belgium 1M 60d yield volatility (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
8 Apr-16 Apr-17 Sep-18 Jul-19 Apr-20 Apr-21 Sep-22 Apr-23 Apr-24 Jul-25 Jul-28 Apr-31 Jul-42 Relative Value Report Finland, 13-Mar bp 2Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 30Y 5 bp 0 bp -5 bp -10 bp -15 bp -20 bp -25 bp -30 bp -35 bp -40 bp -45 bp -50 bp 60d Average 60d Min 60d Max Asset Swap Spread Vertical bars show the +/- 2 confidence interval for the last 60 trading sessions Gianluca Ziglio Fixed Income Strategy gianluca.ziglio@sunrisebrokers.com Tel
9 Finland, 13-Mar-15 Bond Maturity Yrs Yield Last ASW 60d Avg Diff (bp) Std Dev (bp) 60d Min 60d Max Z-Score DV01 Cheap Rich Carry& Roll-Down¹ (1M on EUR 1mm) 1M Roll- Down (bp) RFGB1 3/4 04/15/16 15-Apr % RFGB 1 7/8 04/15/17 15-Apr % RFGB3 7/8 09/15/17 15-Sep % RFGB 1 1/8 09/15/18 15-Sep % RFGB4 3/8 07/04/19 4-Jul % RFGB3 3/8 04/15/20 15-Apr % RFGB 0 3/8 09/15/20 15-Sep % RFGB3 1/2 04/15/21 15-Apr % RFGB 1 5/8 09/15/22 15-Sep % RFGB 1 1/2 04/15/23 15-Apr % RFGB 2 04/15/24 15-Apr % RFGB 4 07/04/25 4-Jul % RFGB 2 3/4 07/04/28 4-Jul % RFGB 0 3/4 04/15/31 15-Apr % RFGB 2 5/8 07/04/42 4-Jul % M BES² (bp) ¹ On a EUR 1mm cash invested in each security for 1M assuming GC rates. ² Break Even Spread between the bond's forward and spot yields. Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
10 Finland 2bp 1bp 0bp Finland 60% 58% 56% 54% 52% 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 14bp 12bp 10bp 8bp 6bp 4bp 2bp -1bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 1M Carry & RD (bp) 1M BES² (bp) 1M Roll-Down (bp) 40% 0bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y Prob {Yield at horizon Forward Yield} (lhs) Finland 1M 60d yield volatility (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
11 Apr-16 Oct-16 Jul-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Nov-19 Oct-20 Oct-21 Oct-22 May-23 May-24 Nov-24 Oct-25 Oct-27 Apr-29 May-30 Oct-32 Apr-35 Oct-38 Apr-41 May-45 Apr-55 Apr-60 Relative Value Report France, 13-Mar bp 2Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 30Y 70 bp 60 bp 50 bp 40 bp 30 bp 20 bp 10 bp 0 bp -10 bp -20 bp -30 bp -40 bp -50 bp -60 bp 60d Average 60d Min 60d Max Asset Swap Spread Vertical bars show the +/- 2 confidence interval for the last 60 trading sessions Gianluca Ziglio Fixed Income Strategy gianluca.ziglio@sunrisebrokers.com Tel
12 France, 13-Mar-15 Bond Maturity Yrs Yield Last ASW 60d Avg Diff (bp) Std Dev (bp) 60d Min 60d Max Z-Score DV01 Cheap Rich Carry& Roll-Down¹ (1M on EUR 1mm) 1M Roll- Down (bp) FRTR3 1/4 04/25/16 25-Apr % BTNS 2 1/2 07/25/16 25-Jul % FRTR 5 10/25/16 25-Oct % FRTR 0 1/4 11/25/16 25-Nov % BTNS 1 3/4 02/25/17 25-Feb % FRTR3 3/4 04/25/17 25-Apr % BTNS 1 07/25/17 25-Jul % FRTR4 1/4 10/25/17 25-Oct % FRTR 4 04/25/18 25-Apr % FRTR 1 05/25/18 25-May % FRTR4 1/4 10/25/18 25-Oct % FRTR 1 11/25/18 25-Nov % FRTR4 1/4 04/25/19 25-Apr % FRTR 1 05/25/19 25-May % FRTR8 1/2 10/25/19 25-Oct % FRTR3 3/4 10/25/19 25-Oct % FRTR 0 1/2 11/25/19 25-Nov % FRTR3 1/2 04/25/20 25-Apr % FRTR 0 05/25/20 25-May % FRTR2 1/2 10/25/20 25-Oct % FRTR3 3/4 04/25/21 25-Apr % FRTR 3 1/4 10/25/21 25-Oct % FRTR 3 04/25/22 25-Apr % FRTR8 1/4 04/25/22 25-Apr % FRTR 2 1/4 10/25/22 25-Oct % FRTR8 1/2 04/25/23 25-Apr % FRTR 1 3/4 05/25/23 25-May % FRTR4 1/4 10/25/23 25-Oct % FRTR 2 1/4 05/25/24 25-May % FRTR 1 3/4 11/25/24 25-Nov % FRTR 0 1/2 05/25/25 25-May % FRTR 6 10/25/25 25-Oct % FRTR3 1/2 04/25/26 25-Apr % FRTR 2 3/4 10/25/27 25-Oct % , FRTR5 1/2 04/25/29 25-Apr % , FRTR 2 1/2 05/25/30 25-May % , FRTR5 3/4 10/25/32 25-Oct % , FRTR4 3/4 04/25/35 25-Apr % , FRTR 4 10/25/38 25-Oct % , FRTR4 1/2 04/25/41 25-Apr % FRTR 3 1/4 05/25/45 25-May % ¹ On a EUR 1mm cash invested in each security for 1M assuming GC rates. ² Break Even Spread between the bond's forward and spot yields. Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers 1M BES² (bp)
13 France, 13-Mar-15 Bond Maturity Yrs Yield Last ASW 60d Avg Diff (bp) Std Dev (bp) 60d Min 60d Max Z-Score DV01 Carry& Roll-Down¹ (1M on EUR 1mm) 1M Roll- Down (bp) FRTR 4 04/25/55 25-Apr % , FRTR 4 04/25/60 25-Apr % , M BES² (bp) France 2bp 1bp 0bp France 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 54% 53% 52% 51% 20bp 18bp 16bp 14bp 12bp 10bp 8bp 6bp 4bp 2bp -1bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y 40Y 45Y 50Y 1M Carry & RD (bp) 1M BES² (bp) 1M Roll-Down (bp) 50% 0bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y 40Y 45Y 50Y Prob {Yield at horizon Forward Yield} (lhs) France 1M 60d yield volatility (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
14 Apr-16 Oct-16 Jul-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Jul-19 Jan-20 Sep-20 Jul-21 Jan-22 Sep-22 May-23 Jan-24 Aug-24 Feb-25 Jul-27 Jan-28 Jan-30 Jan-31 Jul-34 Jan-37 Jul-39 Jul-40 Jul-42 Jul-44 Aug-46 Relative Value Report Germany, 13-Mar-15 5 bp 2Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 30Y 0 bp -5 bp -10 bp -15 bp -20 bp -25 bp -30 bp -35 bp -40 bp -45 bp -50 bp -55 bp -60 bp -65 bp -70 bp 60d Average 60d Min 60d Max Asset Swap Spread Vertical bars show the +/- 2 confidence interval for the last 60 trading sessions Gianluca Ziglio Fixed Income Strategy gianluca.ziglio@sunrisebrokers.com Tel
15 Germany, 13-Mar-15 Bond Maturity Yrs Yield Last ASW 60d Avg Diff (bp) Std Dev (bp) 60d Min 60d Max Z-Score DV01 Cheap Rich Carry& Roll-Down¹ (1M on EUR 1mm) 1M Roll- Down (bp) OBL 2 3/4 04/08/16 8-Apr % BKO 0 1/4 06/10/16 10-Jun % DBR 6 06/20/16 20-Jun % DBR 4 07/04/16 4-Jul % BKO 0 09/16/16 16-Sep % OBL 1 1/4 10/14/16 14-Oct % BKO 0 12/16/16 16-Dec % DBR 3 3/4 01/04/17 4-Jan % OBL 0 3/4 02/24/17 24-Feb % BKO 0 03/10/17 10-Mar % OBL 0 1/2 04/07/17 7-Apr % DBR 4 1/4 07/04/17 4-Jul % OBL 0 1/2 10/13/17 13-Oct % DBR 4 01/04/18 4-Jan % OBL 0 1/2 02/23/18 23-Feb % OBL 0 1/4 04/13/18 13-Apr % DBR 4 1/4 07/04/18 4-Jul % OBL 1 10/12/18 12-Oct % DBR 3 3/4 01/04/19 4-Jan % OBL 1 02/22/19 22-Feb % OBL 0 1/2 04/12/19 12-Apr % DBR 3 1/2 07/04/19 4-Jul % OBL 0 1/4 10/11/19 11-Oct % DBR 3 1/4 01/04/20 4-Jan % OBL 0 04/17/20 17-Apr % DBR 3 07/04/20 4-Jul % DBR 2 1/4 09/04/20 4-Sep % DBR 2 1/2 01/04/21 4-Jan % DBR 3 1/4 07/04/21 4-Jul % DBR 2 1/4 09/04/21 4-Sep % DBR 2 01/04/22 4-Jan % DBR 1 3/4 07/04/22 4-Jul % DBR 1 1/2 09/04/22 4-Sep % DBR 1 1/2 02/15/23 15-Feb % DBR 1 1/2 05/15/23 15-May % DBR 2 08/15/23 15-Aug % DBR 6 1/4 01/04/24 4-Jan % DBR 1 3/4 02/15/24 15-Feb % DBR 1 1/2 05/15/24 15-May % DBR 1 08/15/24 15-Aug % DBR 0 1/2 02/15/25 15-Feb % ¹ On a EUR 1mm cash invested in each security for 1M assuming GC rates. ² Break Even Spread between the bond's forward and spot yields. Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers 1M BES² (bp)
16 Germany, 13-Mar-15 Bond Maturity Yrs Yield Last ASW 60d Avg Diff (bp) Std Dev (bp) 60d Min 60d Max Z-Score DV01 Carry& Roll-Down¹ (1M on EUR 1mm) 1M Roll- Down (bp) DBR 6 1/2 07/04/27 4-Jul % DBR 5 5/8 01/04/28 4-Jan % DBR 4 3/4 07/04/28 4-Jul % DBR 6 1/4 01/04/30 4-Jan % DBR 5 1/2 01/04/31 4-Jan % DBR 4 3/4 07/04/34 4-Jul % DBR 4 01/04/37 4-Jan % DBR 4 1/4 07/04/39 4-Jul % DBR 4 3/4 07/04/40 4-Jul % DBR 3 1/4 07/04/42 4-Jul % DBR 2 1/2 07/04/44 4-Jul % DBR 2 1/2 08/15/46 15-Aug % , M BES² (bp) Germany 1bp 0bp Germany 60% 58% 56% 54% 52% 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 14bp 12bp 10bp 8bp 6bp 4bp 2bp -1bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y 1M Carry & RD (bp) 1M BES² (bp) 1M Roll-Down (bp) 40% 0bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y Prob {Yield at horizon Forward Yield} (lhs) Germany 1M 60d yield volatility (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
17 Jul-17 Apr-19 Feb-23 Feb-24 Feb-25 Feb-26 Feb-27 Feb-28 Feb-29 Feb-30 Feb-31 Feb-32 Feb-33 Feb-34 Feb-35 Feb-36 Feb-37 Feb-38 Feb-39 Feb-40 Feb-41 Feb-42 Relative Value Report Greece, 13-Mar bp 1490 bp 1420 bp 1350 bp 1280 bp 1210 bp 1140 bp 1070 bp 1000 bp 930 bp 860 bp 790 bp 720 bp 650 bp 580 bp 510 bp 440 bp 370 bp 300 bp 230 bp 5Y 10Y 15Y 30Y 60d Average 60d Min 60d Max Asset Swap Spread Vertical bars show the +/- 2 confidence interval for the last 60 trading sessions Gianluca Ziglio Fixed Income Strategy gianluca.ziglio@sunrisebrokers.com Tel
18 Greece, 13-Mar-15 Bond Maturity Yrs Yield Last ASW 60d Avg Diff (bp) Std Dev (bp) 60d Min 60d Max Z-Score DV01 Cheap Rich Carry& Roll-Down¹ (1M on EUR 1mm) 1M Roll- Down (bp) GGB 3 3/8 07/17/17 17-Jul % , GGB 4 3/4 04/17/19 17-Apr % , GGB 2 02/24/23 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/24 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/25 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/26 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/27 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/28 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/29 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/30 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/31 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/32 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/33 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/34 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/35 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/36 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/37 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/38 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/39 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/40 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/41 24-Feb % , GGB 2 02/24/42 24-Feb % , M BES² (bp) ¹ On a EUR 1mm cash invested in each security for 1M assuming GC rates. ² Break Even Spread between the bond's forward and spot yields. Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
19 Greece 36bp 32bp 28bp 24bp 20bp 16bp 12bp 8bp 4bp 0bp -4bp -8bp -12bp -16bp -20bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 1M Carry & RD (bp) 1M BES² (bp) 1M Roll-Down (bp) Greece 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 54% 53% 52% 51% 225bp 205bp 185bp 165bp 145bp 125bp 105bp 85bp 65bp 50% 45bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y Prob {Yield at horizon Forward Yield} (lhs) Greece 1M 60d yield volatility (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
20 Apr-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Jun-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 May-30 Feb-45 Relative Value Report Ireland, 13-Mar bp 2Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 30Y 90 bp 80 bp 70 bp 60 bp 50 bp 40 bp 30 bp 20 bp 10 bp 0 bp -10 bp -20 bp -30 bp -40 bp -50 bp 60d Average 60d Min 60d Max Asset Swap Spread Vertical bars show the +/- 2 confidence interval for the last 60 trading sessions Gianluca Ziglio Fixed Income Strategy gianluca.ziglio@sunrisebrokers.com Tel
21 Ireland, 13-Mar-15 Bond Maturity Yrs Yield Last ASW 60d Avg Diff (bp) Std Dev (bp) 60d Min 60d Max Z-Score DV01 Cheap Rich Carry& Roll-Down¹ (1M on EUR 1mm) 1M Roll- Down (bp) IRISH /18/16 18-Apr % IRISH 5 1/2 10/18/17 18-Oct % IRISH 4 1/2 10/18 18-Oct % IRISH /18/19 18-Jun % IRISH /18/19 18-Oct % IRISH 4 1/2 04/20 18-Apr % IRISH 5 10/18/20 18-Oct % IRISH /15/22 15-Mar % , IRISH /20/23 20-Mar % , IRISH /18/24 18-Mar % , IRISH /13/25 13-Mar % , IRISH /15/30 15-May % IRISH 2 02/18/45 18-Feb % , M BES² (bp) ¹ On a EUR 1mm cash invested in each security for 1M assuming GC rates. ² Break Even Spread between the bond's forward and spot yields. Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
22 Ireland 5bp 4bp 3bp 2bp 1bp 0bp Ireland 60% 58% 56% 54% 52% 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 45bp 40bp 35bp 30bp 25bp 20bp 15bp 10bp -1bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y 1M Carry & RD (bp) 1M BES² (bp) 1M Roll-Down (bp) 40% 5bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y Prob {Yield at horizon Forward Yield} (lhs) Ireland 1M 60d yield volatility (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
23 Apr-16 Nov-16 Jun-17 Jan-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Sep-19 Sep-20 May-21 Dec-21 Sep-22 May-23 Nov-23 Sep-24 Jun-25 Mar-26 Nov-26 Nov-27 Sep-28 Nov-29 May-31 Feb-33 Aug-34 Feb-37 Aug-39 Sep-40 Sep-44 Sep-46 Relative Value Report Italy, 13-Mar bp 2Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 30Y 225 bp 210 bp 195 bp 180 bp 165 bp 150 bp 135 bp 120 bp 105 bp 90 bp 75 bp 60 bp 45 bp 30 bp 15 bp 0 bp -15 bp 60d Average 60d Min 60d Max Asset Swap Spread Vertical bars show the +/- 2 confidence interval for the last 60 trading sessions Gianluca Ziglio Fixed Income Strategy gianluca.ziglio@sunrisebrokers.com Tel
24 Italy, 13-Mar-15 Bond Maturity Yrs Yield Last ASW 60d Avg Diff (bp) Std Dev (bp) 60d Min 60d Max Z-Score DV01 Cheap Rich Carry& Roll-Down¹ (1M on EUR 1mm) 1M Roll- Down (bp) BTPS3 3/4 04/15/16 15-Apr % BTPS 2 1/4 05/15/16 15-May % BTPS3 3/4 08/01/16 1-Aug % BTPS 4 3/4 09/15/16 15-Sep % BTPS 2 3/4 11/15/16 15-Nov % BTPS 1 1/2 12/15/16 15-Dec % BTPS 4 02/01/17 1-Feb % BTPS 4 3/4 05/01/17 1-May % BTPS /15/17 15-May % BTPS 4 3/4 06/01/17 1-Jun % BTPS5 1/4 08/01/17 1-Aug % BTPS 3 1/2 11/01/17 1-Nov % BTPS 0 3/4 01/15/18 15-Jan % BTPS4 1/2 02/01/18 1-Feb % BTPS 3 1/2 06/01/18 1-Jun % BTPS4 1/2 08/01/18 1-Aug % BTPS 3 1/2 12/01/18 1-Dec % BTPS4 1/4 02/01/19 1-Feb % BTPS4 1/2 03/01/19 1-Mar % BTPS 2 1/2 05/01/19 1-May % BTPS 1 1/2 08/01/19 1-Aug % BTPS4 1/4 09/01/19 1-Sep % BTPS /01/19 1-Dec % BTPS4 1/2 02/01/20 1-Feb % BTPS4 1/4 03/01/20 1-Mar % BTPS 4 09/01/20 1-Sep % BTPS3 3/4 03/01/21 1-Mar % , BTPS 3 3/4 05/01/21 1-May % , BTPS3 3/4 08/01/21 1-Aug % , BTPS4 3/4 09/01/21 1-Sep % , BTPS /15/21 15-Dec % , BTPS 5 03/01/22 1-Mar % , BTPS /15/22 15-Apr % , BTPS 5 1/2 09/01/22 1-Sep % , BTPS 5 1/2 11/01/22 1-Nov % , BTPS 4 1/2 05/01/23 1-May % , BTPS4 3/4 08/01/23 1-Aug % , BTPS 9 11/01/23 1-Nov % , BTPS 4 1/2 03/01/24 1-Mar % , BTPS 3 3/4 09/01/24 1-Sep % , BTPS 2 1/2 12/01/24 1-Dec % , ¹ On a EUR 1mm cash invested in each security for 1M assuming GC rates. ² Break Even Spread between the bond's forward and spot yields. Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers 1M BES² (bp)
25 Italy, 13-Mar-15 Bond Maturity Yrs Yield Last ASW 60d Avg Diff (bp) Std Dev (bp) 60d Min 60d Max Z-Score DV01 Carry& Roll-Down¹ (1M on EUR 1mm) 1M Roll- Down (bp) BTPS 5 03/01/25 1-Mar % , BTPS 1 1/2 06/01/25 1-Jun % , BTPS4 1/2 03/01/26 1-Mar % , BTPS7 1/4 11/01/26 1-Nov % , BTPS6 1/2 11/01/27 1-Nov % , BTPS 4 3/4 09/01/28 1-Sep % , BTPS5 1/4 11/01/29 1-Nov % , BTPS 3 1/2 03/01/30 1-Mar % , BTPS 6 05/01/31 1-May % , BTPS5 3/4 02/01/33 1-Feb % , BTPS 5 08/01/34 1-Aug % , BTPS 4 02/01/37 1-Feb % , BTPS 5 08/01/39 1-Aug % , BTPS 5 09/01/40 1-Sep % , BTPS 4 3/4 09/01/44 1-Sep % , BTPS 3 1/4 09/01/46 1-Sep % , M BES² (bp) Italy 3bp 2bp 1bp 0bp Italy 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 54% 53% 52% 51% 40bp 35bp 30bp 25bp 20bp 15bp 10bp -1bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y 1M Carry & RD (bp) 1M BES² (bp) 1M Roll-Down (bp) 50% 5bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y Prob {Yield at horizon Forward Yield} (lhs) Italy 1M 60d yield volatility (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
26 Apr-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-24 Jan-28 Jan-33 Jan-37 Jan-42 Jan-47 Relative Value Report Netherland, 13-Mar bp 2Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 30Y 5 bp 0 bp -5 bp -10 bp -15 bp -20 bp -25 bp -30 bp -35 bp -40 bp -45 bp -50 bp -55 bp 60d Average 60d Min 60d Max Asset Swap Spread Vertical bars show the +/- 2 confidence interval for the last 60 trading sessions Gianluca Ziglio Fixed Income Strategy gianluca.ziglio@sunrisebrokers.com Tel
27 Netherland, 13-Mar-15 Bond Maturity Yrs Yield Last ASW 60d Avg Diff (bp) Std Dev (bp) 60d Min 60d Max Z-Score DV01 Cheap Rich Carry& Roll-Down¹ (1M on EUR 1mm) 1M Roll- Down (bp) NETHER 0 04/15/16 15-Apr % NETHER 4 07/15/16 15-Jul % NETHER 2 1/2 01/15/17 15-Jan % NETHER 0 1/2 04/15/17 15-Apr % NETHER 4 1/2 07/17 15-Jul % NETHER 1 1/4 01/15/18 15-Jan % NETHER 0 04/15/18 15-Apr % NETHER 4 07/15/18 15-Jul % NETHER 1 1/4 01/15/19 15-Jan % NETHER 4 07/15/19 15-Jul % NETHER 0 1/4 01/15/20 15-Jan % NETHER 3 1/2 07/20 15-Jul % NETHER 3 1/4 07/21 15-Jul % NETHER 2 1/4 07/15/22 15-Jul % NETHER 3 3/4 01/23 15-Jan % NETHER 7 1/2 01/23 15-Jan % NETHER 1 3/4 07/15/23 15-Jul % NETHER 2 07/15/24 15-Jul % NETHER 5 1/2 01/28 15-Jan % NETHER 2 1/2 01/15/33 15-Jan % NETHER 4 01/15/37 15-Jan % NETHER 3 3/4 01/42 15-Jan % NETHER 2 3/4 01/15/47 15-Jan % , M BES² (bp) ¹ On a EUR 1mm cash invested in each security for 1M assuming GC rates. ² Break Even Spread between the bond's forward and spot yields. Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
28 Netherland 1bp 0bp -1bp Netherland 60% 58% 56% 54% 52% 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 20bp 18bp 16bp 14bp 12bp 10bp 8bp 6bp 4bp 2bp -2bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y 1M Carry & RD (bp) 1M BES² (bp) 1M Roll-Down (bp) Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers 40% 0bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y Prob {Yield at horizon Forward Yield} (lhs) Netherland 1M 60d yield volatility (rhs)
29 Oct-16 Oct-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Apr-21 Oct-23 Oct-25 Feb-30 Apr-37 Feb-45 Relative Value Report Portugal, 13-Mar bp 2Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 30Y 270 bp 250 bp 230 bp 210 bp 190 bp 170 bp 150 bp 130 bp 110 bp 90 bp 70 bp 50 bp 30 bp 10 bp -10 bp 60d Average 60d Min 60d Max Asset Swap Spread Vertical bars show the +/- 2 confidence interval for the last 60 trading sessions Gianluca Ziglio Fixed Income Strategy gianluca.ziglio@sunrisebrokers.com Tel
30 Portugal, 13-Mar-15 Bond Maturity Yrs Yield Last ASW 60d Avg Diff (bp) Std Dev (bp) 60d Min 60d Max Z-Score DV01 Cheap Rich Carry& Roll-Down¹ (1M on EUR 1mm) 1M Roll- Down (bp) PGB /15/16 15-Oct % PGB /16/17 16-Oct % PGB /15/18 15-Jun % PGB 4 3/4 06/14/19 14-Jun % , PGB /15/20 15-Jun % , PGB /15/21 15-Apr % , PGB /25/23 25-Oct % , PGB /15/24 15-Feb % , PGB 2 7/8 10/15/25 15-Oct % , PGB 3 7/8 02/15/30 15-Feb % , PGB /15/37 15-Apr % , PGB /15/45 15-Feb % , M BES² (bp) ¹ On a EUR 1mm cash invested in each security for 1M assuming GC rates. ² Break Even Spread between the bond's forward and spot yields. Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
31 Portugal 4bp 3bp 2bp 1bp 0bp Portugal 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% 60% 58% 56% 54% 52% 145bp 125bp 105bp 85bp 65bp 45bp 25bp -1bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y 1M Carry & RD (bp) 1M BES² (bp) 1M Roll-Down (bp) 50% 5bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y Prob {Yield at horizon Forward Yield} (lhs) Portugal 1M 60d yield volatility (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
32 Apr-16 Oct-16 Jul-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Jul-19 Jan-20 Oct-20 Jan-22 Jan-23 Oct-23 Oct-24 Jul-25 Jul-26 Oct-28 Jul-30 Jul-32 Jan-37 Jul-40 Jul-41 Oct-44 Oct-64 Relative Value Report Spain, 13-Mar bp 200 bp 185 bp 170 bp 155 bp 140 bp 125 bp 110 bp 95 bp 80 bp 65 bp 50 bp 35 bp 20 bp 5 bp -10 bp 2Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 30Y 50Y -25 bp 60d Average 60d Min 60d Max Asset Swap Spread Vertical bars show the +/- 2 confidence interval for the last 60 trading sessions Gianluca Ziglio Fixed Income Strategy gianluca.ziglio@sunrisebrokers.com Tel
33 Spain, 13-Mar-15 Bond Maturity Yrs Yield Last ASW 60d Avg Diff (bp) Std Dev (bp) 60d Min 60d Max Z-Score DV01 Cheap Rich Carry& Roll-Down¹ (1M on EUR 1mm) 1M Roll- Down (bp) SPGB3 1/4 04/30/16 30-Apr % SPGB /30/16 30-Jul % SPGB 4 1/4 10/31/16 31-Oct % SPGB /31/17 31-Jan % SPGB /30/17 30-Apr % SPGB5 1/2 07/30/17 30-Jul % SPGB 4 3/4 09/30/17 30-Sep % SPGB 0 1/2 10/31/17 31-Oct % SPGB 4 1/2 01/31/18 31-Jan % SPGB /30/18 30-Jul % SPGB 3 3/4 10/31/18 31-Oct % SPGB 2 3/4 04/30/19 30-Apr % SPGB /30/19 30-Jul % SPGB /31/19 31-Oct % SPGB /31/20 31-Jan % SPGB 4 04/30/20 30-Apr % SPGB /31/20 31-Oct % SPGB5 1/2 04/30/21 30-Apr % SPGB /31/22 31-Jan % , SPGB /31/23 31-Jan % , SPGB /31/23 31-Oct % , SPGB /31/24 31-Jan % , SPGB /30/24 30-Apr % , SPGB 2 3/4 10/31/24 31-Oct % , SPGB /30/25 30-Apr % , SPGB /30/25 30-Jul % , SPGB /30/26 30-Jul % , SPGB /31/28 31-Oct % , SPGB 6 01/31/29 31-Jan % , SPGB /30/30 30-Jul % , SPGB5 3/4 07/30/32 30-Jul % , SPGB /31/37 31-Jan % , SPGB /30/40 30-Jul % , SPGB /30/41 30-Jul % , SPGB /31/44 31-Oct % , SPGB 4 10/31/64 31-Oct % , M BES² (bp) ¹ On a EUR 1mm cash invested in each security for 1M assuming GC rates. ² Break Even Spread between the bond's forward and spot yields. Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
34 Spain 2bp 1bp 0bp Spain 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 54% 53% 52% 51% 75bp 65bp 55bp 45bp 35bp 25bp 15bp -1bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y 40Y 45Y 50Y 55Y 1M Carry & RD (bp) 1M BES² (bp) 1M Roll-Down (bp) 50% 5bp 0Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y 35Y 40Y 45Y 50Y 55Y Prob {Yield at horizon Forward Yield} (lhs) Spain 1M 60d yield volatility (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, Sunrise Brokers
35 Fixed Income Trading Desk DISCLAIMER Marketing Communication - Institutional Use. This document has not been produced in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research. Entry, Stop Loss, Close, Near-term exit and Target offered as guidelines, which may be adjusted as conditions vary. Sunrise Brokers LLP ( Sunrise ) for the information of its Clients (as defined in the Rules of the FSA) and those of its affiliates only. It is not intended for Retail Clients in the UK. If this research is received by a customer of an affiliate of Sunrise, its provision to the recipient is subject to the terms of business in place between the recipient and such affiliate. This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Sunrise, or its subsidiaries or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Sunrise has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Sunrise makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Nothing herein excludes or restricts any duty or liability to a customer which Sunrise has under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 or under the Rules of the FSA. A recipient who chooses to deal with any person who is not a representative of Sunrise in the UK will not enjoy the protections afforded by the UK regulatory regime. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount invested. Where an investment is denominated in a currency other than the local currency of the recipient of the research report, changes in the exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of that investment. In case of investments for which there is no recognised market it may be difficult for investors to sell their investments or to obtain reliable information about its value or the extent of the risk to which it is exposed. Sunrise Brokers LLP is registered in England No OC300626, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Copyright. Sunrise Brokers LLP 2012, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Sunrise Brokers LLP. TIM Group Breakdowns: A breakdown of all ideas entered in the past 5 days by sector/region. Pie charts are coloured according to Sentiment and sized according to Interest. Sentiment: Percentage of positive idea actions in the sector/region over the past 5 days. More recent actions are weighted more heavily. Change: The change in Sentiment from the previous 24 hours. Interest: Proportion of opens and closes for the sector/region compared to all opens and closes. Sentiment: Sentiment is calculated from the percentage of all idea actions which were positive (opens of longs, closes of shorts) in the past 5 days. More recent actions are weighted more heavily. 50 is a neutral indicator. More than 50 indicates a long sentiment, less than 50 a short sentiment. The change in Sentiment from the previous 24 hours is shown below in parentheses. Historical Sentiment: The 5 day weighted sentiment plotted historically.
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