An Approach to Classify the Risk of Operating Nuclear Power Plants Case Study: Neckarwestheim Unit 1 and Unit 2

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1 An Appoach to Classify the Risk of Opeating Nuclea Powe Plants Case Study: Neckawestheim Unit 1 and Unit 2 A. Stohm a*, L. Ehlkes a, W. Schwaz a, M. Khatib-Rahba b, M. Zavisca b, and D. Rittig c a EnBW Kenkaft GmbH, Kenkaftwek Neckawestheim, Gemany b Enegy Reseach, Inc., Rockville, Mayland, USA c ISaR GmbH, Gaching, Gemany Abstact: A level-2 Pobabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an integated appoach to investigate the pogession of sevee accidents up to containment failue and elease of adionuclides into the envionment. The esults of a standad level-2 PSA include the fequencies associated with vaious containment failue modes (elease categoies) along with the envionmental elease quantities fo vaious adioisotopes (souce tems). The extended level-2 PSA appoach discussed in this pape meges the standad level-2 PSA esults into an integal metic fo isk assessment by estimating the integal isk of activity of adiological elease to the immediate vicinity of the plant. Risk is defined as a poduct of the eleased activity and the elease-categoy fequency, integated ove all possible elease categoies. This appoach was ecently used to assess the isk of sevee accidents fo the Neckawestheim Unit 1 (3-loops, 840 MW e ) and the Neckawestheim Unit 2 (4-loops, 1400 MW e ) nuclea powe plants, which enteed commecial opeation in 1976 and 1989, espectively. The esults have demonstated that neithe the coe damage fequency no the coe damage pofile necessaily is an adequate indicato of plant isk. Futhemoe, neithe the absolute fequencies of elease categoies no the elative popotions of the elease categoy fequencies necessaily povide a balanced pictue of sevee accident isk as epesented by the integal activity of elease. Keywods: Coe Damage, Sevee Accidents, Level-2 PSA, Risk 1. INTRODUCTION As geneally known, enginees and scientists use the tem isk to descibe events with negative effects and to quantify damages, espectively. Usually, this tem is peceived as the poduct of two factos occuence fequency and extent of damage of an event. Theeby, the fequency of occuence is the occuence pobability of the event ove a specific time peiod. The extent of damage is the quantitative degee of possible consequences o damage caused by the event. Howeve, evaluation of the influences on isk equies a close and sepaate examination of these two factos. Failing unifom definitions fo the extent of damage, damage quantification and isk evaluation, espectively, ae often geaed to the special demands of technical o scientific uses. In addition, the public peception and acceptance of isk based on occuence fequency and extent of damage is influenced by complex human input vaiables, shown impessively by Käme [1], but wheeupon this pape does not go into futhe details. Hee, it is pesented how the damage potential of Nuclea Powe Plant (NPP) accidents in Gemany is quantified geneally and especially fo the NPP Neckawestheim Unit 1 (GKN I) and Unit 2 (GKN II). In addition, this pape will discuss the impotance that GKN ascibes to the isk identified by the quantification of damage fo the safety eview and safety upgade of the two units. The pape intoduces shotly the NPP Neckawestheim with the two units at fist. It then pesents which types of damage ae quantified, the scope coveed by the analyses and the methods used. Aftewads the essential esults ae descibed and the conclusions ae discussed. * a.stohm@kk.enbw.com

2 2. THE NPP NECKARWESTHEIM The NPP Neckawestheim is located in an abandoned quay on the ive Necka nea the city of Neckawestheim in the State of Baden-Wüttembeg in southen Gemany. At this plant site, two Siemens-Kaftwek Union AG (KWU) pessuized wate eactos ae opeated by Enegie Baden- Wüttembeg Kenkaft GmbH (EnKK). The nuclea powe plant Neckawestheim Unit 1 (GKN I) is a thee-loop plant with two tubo geneatos, which enteed commecial opeation in May The eacto themal output is 2,495 MW th, coesponding to an electic powe output of 840 MW e. GKN I is the only plant in Gemany that poduces the usual thee-phase cuent of 50 Hetz as well as cuent of 16.7 Hetz used by the gid of the Geman ailway (Deutsche Bahn AG). The cuent fo the ailway is poduced by a sepaate tubo geneato. The nuclea powe plant Neckawestheim Unit 2 (GKN II), a fou-loop plant with one tubo geneato of the so-called Konvoi geneation, is the newest NPP opeating in the Geman fleet and stated commecial opeation in The eacto themal output of 3,850 MW th coesponds to an electic powe output of 1,400 MW e. This plant does not poduce cuent fo the ailway but the thee-phase cuent can patly be conveted on site by a convete plant into ailway cuent. Wet cell-type cooling towes ae used by GKN I, and a wet dy hybid cooling towe with foced ventilation is used by GKN II, in contast to most othe NPPs in Gemany. These cooling towes of the two units have a compacte constuction and a lesse height; the hybid cooling towe poduces substantially less fogging than the usual natual-daft cooling towes. The nuclea steam supply system of both units is enclosed by a lage spheical steel shell that foms the containment. The containment shell and the components outside the shell ae enclosed by a einfoced concete eacto building. The annula gap between the containment shell and the eacto building is efeed to as the Ringaum. Both units ae equipped with Passive Autocatalytic Recombines (PARs) in ode to minimize the potential fo build-up of combustible gases inside the containment duing sevee accidents. In addition, in both units, a Filteed Containment Venting System (FCVS) has been implemented that enables manual elief of containment pessue to pevent containment ovepessue failue and consequential uncontolled and unfilteed elease of adioactive mateial into the envionment. Some plant paametes of both units impotant to sevee accident pogession and containment esponse ae listed in Table 1. Table 1: Selected Plant Paametes Impotant to Sevee Accident Pogession and Containment Response in the PSAs of GKN I and GKN II Plant Paamete Dimension GKN I GKN II Themal powe MW th 2,497 3,850 Containment steel shell Containment failue pessue fo static (+) and tansient (*) loads inne diamete m fee volume m³ 48,000 70,659 lowest value MPa-abs (+,*) (+,*) 50% pecentile MPa-abs (+,*) 1.53 (+) 1.70 (*) highest value MPa-abs. 1.3 (+,*) 2.8 (+) Total capacity of passive autocatalytic ecombines kg/h Ratio of eacto cooling system wate volume to powe 3.12 (*) m³/mw th Ratio of containment fee volume to powe m³/mw th Ratio of ziconium mass to containment fee volume kg/m³ Ratio of fuel mass to containment fee volume kg/m³

3 3. DAMAGE QUANTIFICATION Pobabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) methodology is used fo damage quantification of NPPs. It detemines on vaious levels the occuence fequency and the potential extent of damage to the plant and in the envionment. The PSA methodology has matued and is used woldwide as an established and poven appoach to quantification of damage, which can occu in the NPPs themselves o can be caused in the envionment as a consequence of damages in NPPs. The PSA integates the impacts of vaious design, constuction and opeational featues into a systematically integated and logically consistent pocess that can be used to seach fo potential plant design and opeational vulneabilities including the impact of vaious uncetainties. Thee levels in the quantification of potential damage associated with the opeation of NPPs ae distinguished: Level-1 PSA is concened with components and systems as well as with analyses of how initiating events may lead to coe damage though combinations of vaious andom and common cause failues, including opeato eos. The level-1 PSA also investigates the availability of the active functions of containment isolation. Level-2 PSA is concened with the phenomenological aspects of sevee accidents and the assessment of possible containment failues afte coe damage, and the extent of the diect adiological eleases at the containment failue locations. Level-3 PSA consists of an analysis of the tanspot and dispesion of adionuclides though the envionment to assess the biological, ecological, and economical consequences of vaious accidents. Within the Geman famewok, level-1 PSA esults ae sometimes efeed to as coe-damage-isk, and that of level-2 PSA as the elease-isk. But the damage components of the analyses, in all cases, ae limited only to the plant itself. The classical envionment-isk is ultimately eached as pat of the level-3 PSA only. The infomation and data needed as input fo conducting a PSA ae elated to the uncetainties associated with vaious aspects of the data and PSA models. The magnitudes of these uncetainties incease as the consequences popagate fom level-1 to level-3 PSA. In Gemany, plant specific level-1 and level-2 PSAs ae pefomed; howeve, level-3 PSAs ae not equied. The scope of level-2 PSAs is limited to intenal initiating events and full-powe opeation only. The level-1 and an extended level-2 PSA of GKN I wee finished in July 2007 [2] and of GKN II in Novembe 2009 [3]. Fo both plants, the level-1 PSA was conducted using identical methods by AREVA NP, and the extended Level-2 PSA also using identical methods by Enegy Reseach, Inc. (ERI). A goal of these studies has been to achieve consistency with intenational pactices that fom the cuent state-of-the-at and with the specifications as outlined by the Geman PSA guidelines [4]. The extension of the Level-2 consists of a isk appoach to estimate the global consequences outside the plant, allowing fo the assessment of the effectiveness and efficiency of the safety-elevant equipment and measues fo mitigating the consequences of sevee accidents, which was the main objective of the extended level-2 PSA studies. This isk appoach uses the integal activity of adiological elease to the immediate vicinity of the plant, evaluated ove all containment failue modes following coe damage. It accounts fo the integal isk within the uncetainty magins of the level-2 PSA but excludes the lage uncetainties associated with the tanspot and dispesion of adionuclides and thei biological and economical effects typically inheent in the level-3 PSA. It is shown in [5] that insights deived fom the esults of this isk appoach and the quantified biological isk ae compaable as a fist appoximation. This pape pusues the question of whethe the classical esults of the level-1 and level-2 PSA ae necessaily adequate indicatos of the integal plant isk. 4. APPROACH: INTEGRAL RISK OF ACTIVITY OF RADIOLOGICAL RELEASE TO THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE PLANT The typical esults of the level-1 PSA as well as of the level-2 PSA ae elated to the plant only. In case of the level-1 PSA, these ae the conditional fequencies of plant states with imminent coe damage as a consequence of failue of the esidual heat emoval equied fo the contol of accident initiating events. The esults of level-2 PSAs typically include the conditional pobability of the vaious containment failue modes and the fequencies associated with these modes (i.e., elease

4 categoies) along with the magnitude and times of elease of adioisotopes (i.e., souce tems). The quantities of adionuclides, e.g., mass factions of the initial coe inventoy, eleased at paticula locations of the plant, ae not a measue of the global damage impact on the envionment suounding the plant. Howeve, the activity associated with these adionuclides is expected to bette eflect the potential consequences of NPP sevee accidents. Theefoe, the total activity eleased fom all locations with containment failue modes is a moe adequate metic fo the global damage in the envionment. Hee, isk is defined mathematically as follows: R = [ f P(i d)] P(d s) C(s c), (1) c i i d s whee R c is the isk of consequence measue c [consequence/yea], f i is the fequency of initiating event i [pe yea], P(i d) is the conditional pobability that initiating event i will lead to plant damage state d, P(d s) is the conditional pobability that plant damage state d will lead to souce tem (elease) s, and C(s c) is the expected value of the conditional consequence measue c, given the occuence of souce tem (elease) s. In the pesent studies, the conditional consequence measue c of sevee accidents is the eleased activity Q associated with vaious adiological eleases. This activity is defined as the numbe of decays pe second, i.e. Becqueels (Bq), of a paticula adioisotope, that is: Q = λ χ I = N χ I A τ whee Q = activity of adioisotope [Bq], λ = adioactive decay constant fo adioisotope [s 1 ], χ = faction eleased to the envionment fo the fission poduct to which the adioisotope belongs to, I = total initial inventoy of adioisotope in the fuel [kg], τ 1/2, = half-life of isotope ( = ln 2 / λ = / λ ) [s], N = Avogado numbe (= mol 1 ), and A = atomic weight of isotope [kg/mol]. The model that is used in this calculation of activities accounts fo the adioactive decay and daughte build-up of 60 epesentative, isk-dominant adioisotopes. Each isotope can be mapped to one of the ten adiological goups that ae defined fo puposes of the souce tem calculations. Theefoe, the isk metic used in the extended level-2 PSAs fo GKN is the integal isk of activity, defined as a poduct of the souce tem fequency [pe yea] and the elease activity [Bq], integated ove all unique souce tems without specifying the point of elease; theefoe, the esults may be intepeted as the isk of activity in the immediate vicinity of the plant. This time-independent iskmetic is a chaacteistic plant popety, which meges the lage numbe of individual and intemediate outcomes of the level-1 and level-2 PSA into one integal meaningful numbe. 5. METHODOLOGY AND SCOPE OF THE PSA STUDIES AT GKN Figue 1 shows schematically the methodology used fo the PSA studies at GKN and is heein descibed in bief; a moe detailed oveview of the extended level-2 PSA methodology including the quantification of uncetainties is given in [6]. Level-1 PSA. As can be seen, the level-2 PSAs use the level-1 PSAs, which wee poduced by Siemens-KWU and updated by AREVA using standad PSA tools, as the stating point. The numeous event sequences esult in distinct end-states of the event tees and the associated elative fequencies and uncetainty distibutions. The end-states ae chaacteized by the unavailability of all equied safety functions within the specific event pogession, including active containment functions and peventive accident management measues fo contolling potential accidents. 1/2,

5 Figue 1: Methodology and Scope of the PSA Studies Pefomed at GKN (Oveview) Inteface of level-1 and level-2 PSA. Since the numbe of end-states that ae identified is too lage to analyze the physical pocesses consequent to each of them individually, in the fist step in pefoming a level-2 PSA, the end-states of the event tees of the level-1 PSA ae collapsed, by the use of binning attibutes and the coesponding states, into Plant Damage States (PDS), which detemine the coe damage chaacteistics with potential implications fo containment esponse and adiological eleases. The PDS fequencies and associated uncetainties ae detemined by a level-1 PSA event tee expanded by the binning attibutes defined to classify the plant damage states. Yet, the level-2 PSA of GKN is based on a stuctued inteface between the level-1 and level-2 PSAs which pactically decouples the two levels and thei associated uncetainties.

6 Deteministic accident analyses povide the technical basis fo the detailed assessment of the phenomenological esponse of vaious accidents that was subsequently used to quantify the event pogession uncetainties and thei impact on the challenges to the eacto containment. These analyses wee pefomed based on plant-specific MELCOR and compute code calculations fo sequences fom epesentative PDS that wee selected on the basis of thei dominant fequencies and potential consequences, in paticula including sequences epesentative of all potential modes of containment bypass. Accident pogession analysis, consisting of the decomposition of vaious sevee accident pocesses and thei integation within an accident pogession event tee (APET), foms the cental building block of the level-2 PSA model. The APET epesents the pobabilistic model that consides all physical and chemical pocesses influencing the pogession of accidents and containment failue and elease modes and thei associated fequencies. The APET banch factions, i.e., conditional pobabilities, ae elated to highly uncetain deteministic phenomenological pocesses with consideable uncetainties, e.g. Zicaloy oxidation, hydogen poduction and combustion, vessel failue mechanisms, high-pessue melt ejection, tempeatue-induced failue of hot leg piping and steam geneato tubes, diect containment heating, vessel lift-off, ex-vessel fuel coolant inteactions, themal loading of the containment-sump intake pipe, molten-coe concete inteactions (MCCI), combustible gas tanspot in the containment, combustion inside the containment and the filteed containment venting system and ove-pessuization of containment due to steam and non-condensable gases in vaious time fames. The APET also includes banching points fo accident management measues fo the ecovey of system functions and opeato actions beyond the level-1 PSA. Pincipally, the APET addesses only systemic and phenomenological questions that ae fully independent of events modelled in the level-1 PSAs. Beyond a few PDS-dependent questions, the APET facilitates a complete sepaation between the level-1 PSA analysis of fequencies and thei associated aleatoy uncetainties, which esult fom the finite numbe of obsevations of a changing system, and epistemic uncetainties, which esult fom knowledge uncetainties, as descibed by subjective pobability distibutions. The APET is solved using the EVNTRE compute code. The containment damage states as end-states of the APET analysis with the conditional pobabilities of the vaious containment failue modes ae collapsed, accoding to cetain chaacteistics and thei attibutes, into bins, i.e., elease goups, and these, in tun and within the souce tem analysis, into elease categoies. The citeion used fo distinguishing the bins and elease categoies is that the elease chaacteistics, i.e., magnitudes, activities, and time of elease to the envionment, should be simila fo all outcomes collapsed into a specific bin o elease categoy, leading to an APET bin definition consisting of pimay system pessue at the time of vessel beach, containment failue mode, containment failue time, status of MCCI, conditions in the eacto cavity and coe damage time. The dominant chaacteistics fo the subsequent classification into the elease categoies listed in Table 2 wee time and mode of containment failue. The souce tem analysis detemines the quantity of adioisotopes eleased to the envionment as factions of the initial coe inventoy, and the uncetainties associated with these elease factions, fo each elease goup individually in a fist step and then on an aveage basis fo each elease categoy in a second step. Risk integation. The elease fequencies and popeties, including the uncetainties and elease quantities, i.e. souce tems, of the adionuclides epesent the end poduct of a typical level-2 PSA. Using the isk appoach given by Equation 1, the integal isk of activity of adiological elease to the immediate vicinity of the plant as an extension to the level-2 PSA is calculated. Sensitivity analyses ae pefomed to examine the sensitivity of the PSA esults to diffeing assumptions o bounday conditions. Impotance Analyses ae aimed at examining which esults of the PSA ae most sensitive to the uncetainties associated with elevant model paametes. Fo selected pais of input and output vaiables, the coelations between the uncetainties of output vaiables and the uncetainties of input vaiables ae detemined. Table 3 povides an oveview of the numeic scopes of the PSAs of GKN I and GKN II.

7 Release Categoy RC-A Table 2 : Definition of the Release Categoies Used fo the GKN level-2 PSAs Containment Failue Mode LOCA outside containment Desciption of Release Path Lage containment bypass Ringaum Unfilteed elease RC-B Uncoveed SGTR Release via uncoveed steam geneato tubes RC-C RC-D Ealy containment uptue Containment isolation failue Containment failue at o befoe vessel beach Ringaum Unfilteed elease Containment failue befoe coe damage Ringaum Unfilteed elease RC-E Coveed SGTR Release via coveed steam geneato tubes RC-F RC-G Sump line failue Late containment uptue Containment failue afte vessel beach Ringaum Unfilteed elease Containment failue long afte vessel beach Ringaum Unfilteed elease RC-H Basemat melt-though Release via penetation of concete basemat RC-I Unfilteed containment venting Containment venting with loss of filtation capability RC-J Filteed containment venting Containment venting to stack with filtation RC-K LOCA: SGTR: No containment failue Loss of Coolant Accident Steam Geneato Tube Ruptue Small containment leakage Ringaum Filteed o unfilteed elease Table 3 : Numbes to Chaacteize the Details of the Analyses fo the GKN I and GKN II Studies Paametes and Results of the PSA GKN I [quantity] Bins used to chaacteize PDS 9 8 PDS MELCOR accident analysis uns pefomed fo at least 48 hous a) Sevee accident phenomena and containment challenges quantified Questions in Accident Pogession Event Tee (APET) independent questions to impot PDS fom level 1 dependent questions on accident pogession summay questions on the states of banches defined by pevious answes Bins to combine APET end states into elease goups 6 7 Release goups with individual souce tem analysis Release categoies as combined elease goups Radionuclide goups used in souce tem calculation Risk-dominant adionuclides to calculate the activity-based plant isk Impotance analyses uns of the impotance code 5 5 individual coelations checked Sensitivity analyses on the influence on model paametes GKN II [quantity] PDS: Plant Damage State a) MELCOR uns pefomed fo at least 60 hous afte initiating event

8 6. RESULTS AND INSIGHTS The esults of damage quantification in the vaious levels of PSA ae detemined by the poduct of two diffeent kinds of factos, namely the fequency of occuence of the damage and the extent of damage. Theefoe, ideally PSA esults on each level should be examined and discussed not as a whole but individually with espect to these diffeent contibutos. The elevant popeties ae compiled in Table 4. Table 4 : Tems Impotant fo Damage Quantification and PSA on Vaious Levels The binning pocess of coe damage states at the level-1/level-2 inteface does not use cut-off citeia that could eliminate significant contibutions to the coe damage fequency of the level-1 PSA o to the esults of the level-2 PSA. Theefoe, the illustation of the essential esults of the level-1 PSA can be confined to the PDS used in the level-2 PSA. The analysis of PDS fo GKN I and GKN II show that the total mean PDS fequency is vey low at a level of about 10 6 pe yea, wheeupon the GKN I and GKN II esults lie about a facto of 2 ove and unde this level, espectively, with compaable uncetainty anges of about one ode of magnitude between the 5% and 95% pecentiles. The uncetainty anges incease with the futhe development of the PDS within the level-2 and the extended level-2 PSA. 6.1 Impact of elative PDS fequencies on the esults of the extended level-2 PSA of GKN I Table 5 shows the elative contibutions of the initiating events to the total PDS fequency of GKN I. Based on this table, the focus within the context of plant safety optimization is diected upon the dominance of the PDS associated with station black-out (SBO). Fo this initiating event one has to balance to which extent eithe the initiating event fequency o the unavailability of plant safety systems o opeato actions could be educed with an appopiate effot benefit atio. Such effots may esult in a educed coe damage fequency; howeve the potential impact of such an effot on the envionment-isk cannot be assessed on basis of a level-1 PSA. In the level-2 PSA, a tansition takes place, as displayed in Table 6, fom the PDS and thei associated fequencies including uncetainties to the elease categoies and thei fequencies including uncetainties. It is notewothy hee, that the total PDS fequency and the sum ove all elease-categoy fequencies ae identical. Column 3 of Table 6 futhe shows the time associated with the onset of adiological elease in each elease categoy. Fou time fames ae distinguished: (1) vey ealy time fame fom the onset of coe damage to eacto pessue vessel (RPV) failue, (2) ealy time fame nea the time of RPV failue, (3) intemediate time fame lasting appoximately 12 hous fom RPV failue, and (4) late time fame fom the end of the intemediate time fame until the end of the level-2 mission duation, which is typically 48 hous in the GKN analyses fom stat of accident initiation. A typical duation of the vey ealy time fame, which vaies depending on the paticulas of the accident

9 sequence, is about 10 h. Not pesented hee ae the additional time peiods fom the occuence of the initiating event to the onset of coe damage. These time peiods, e.g., fo STGR events can be consideable, i.e., 20 h o moe. Howeve, these time peiods ae associated with lage uncetainties and ae theefoe not appopiate as efeence values fo safety-elevant decision citeia. Table 5 : Relative Contibutions of Initiating Events to the Total PDS Fequency of GKN I Initiating Event Leading to Coe Damage Contibution to Total PDS Fequency [%] Station black-out (SBO) 51.6 Othe tansients including ATWS 16.3 Vey small and small LOCA in the eacto coolant system 12.8 Pessuize LOCA 11.2 Steam geneato tube uptue 6.7 Tansients initiated by intenal flooding 1.1 LOCA outside containment 0.3 Sum ~ 100 ATWS: LOCA: Anticipated Tansient without Scam Loss of Coolant Accident The eleased faction of adioisotopes is not discussed hee. All elease categoies ae associated with diffeent elease factions of all elevant goups of adionuclides. Howeve, eleased factions of adionuclides ae not a diect measue of the extent of biological, ecological, and economical damage associated with the adiological elease. Theefoe, pagmatic safety goals based on the elative contibution of each elease categoy to the total PDS fequency o the absolute fequency, such as the Lage Ealy Release Fequency (LERF) o the Lage Release Fequency (LRF), ae not necessaily the appopiate way to evaluate thei contibution to the oveall plant isk as also indicated in Table 6. At this point, a fist finding fom compaing Tables 5 and 6 is that the accident pogession of most PDS that dominate the total PDS fequency, e.g., tansients and pimay-side LOCAs, lead to late filteed containment venting. The containment is assessed to emain intact and unvented fo about 10 % of coe damage events. Futhe insights to the GKN I esults ae pesented in [6]. The extended level-2 PSA calculates the conditional elease activity associated with the adiological elease of each elease categoy and the integal isk of activity of adiological elease in the immediate vicinity of the plant. Table 6 povides the elative contibution of each elease categoy to the integal isk of activity. Since noble gases decay quickly and ae not as consequential as aeosols such as caesium o baium, thei othewise dominating contibution to the integal isk of activity is not discussed in this pape. The isk dominance of the noble gases would mask any findings fom sensitivity analyses and will not be useful in intepeting the esults. Futhemoe, noble gas eleases following sevee accidents in existing plants cannot be mitigated with a pope isk benefit atio. As a consequence, the integal isk of activity fo GKN I is extemely low. The mean pecentage of isk of elease of the entie coe inventoy, i.e., the atio of the integal isk of activity and isk of activity of elease 1 assuming the entie initial coe inventoy of aeosol-type and gaseous adionuclides (excluding noble gases) is eleased, is about 0.06 %. This undelines the efficiency of safety-elevant equipment and measues fo mitigating the consequences of sevee accidents at GKN I. Fom compaing the esults in Tables 5 and 6, futhe conclusions can be dawn. It is appaent that some of the PDS with the lowest factions at the total PDS fequency show the highest contibutions the integal isk of activity. Sequences fo which the containment integity is compomised pio to coe damage, i.e., SGTR events, containment isolation failue due to intenal flooding, and LOCA 1 The isk of activity of elease assuming the entie coe inventoy is eleased is defined as the poduct of the entie initial coe inventoy in [Bq] of the 60 isk-elevant adioisotopes analyzed and the total PDS fequency.

10 outside containment, dominate the integal isk of activity, i.e., the quantification of the extent of damage to the envionment, with moe than 80 %. In contast, those PDS that dominate the total PDS fequency do not play a significant ole in the integal isk of activity. As a consequence, a safety optimization solely based on the esults of level-1 and level-2 PSAs does not necessaily impove plant safety with espect to the potential extent of damage in the envionment, i.e., level-1 and level-2 PSA esults might not be a sufficient basis fo envionment-isk eduction. Table 6: Release Categoies, Associated Times of Release, Factions of the Total PDS Fequency, and Factions of the Integal Risk of Activity in the Immediate Vicinity of the Plant GKN I RC Desciption Release Categoy (RC) Faction [%] Peiod of Stat of Release Total Fequency Risk of Activity a) RC-B Uncoveed SGTR vey ealy < RC-E Coveed SGTR vey ealy RC-D Containment isolation failue b) vey ealy RC-A LOCA outside containment vey ealy RC-C Ealy containment uptue vey ealy to ealy < RC-F Sump suction line failue intemediate < 0.1 < 0.1 RC-G Late containment uptue intemediate to late RC-H Basemat melt-though late RC-I Unfilteed containment venting late RC-J Filteed containment venting late RC-K No containment failue late 9.3 << 0.1 SGTR: Steam Geneato Tube Ruptue LOCA: Loss of Coolant Accident Sum ~100 ~100 a) without noble gases; b) due to intenal flooding 6.2 Impact of elative PDS fequencies on the esults of the extended level-2 PSA of GKN II Table 7 shows the elative contibutions of the initiating events to the total PDS fequency of GKN II. The elease categoies, thei time fames fo the beginning of adiological elease, and the faction contibuted by each elease categoy to the total PDS fequency as well as to the integal isk of activity ae compiled in Table 8. The elative contibutions of the elease categoies to the total PDS fequency fo GKN I and GKN II ae compaed in Figue 2. Table 7 : Relative Contibutions of Initiating Events to the Total PDS Fequency of GKN II Initiating Event Leading to Coe Damage Contibution to Total PDS Fequency [%] Vey small and small LOCA in the eacto coolant system 36.6 Pessuize LOCA 32.4 Tansients including Station Blackout (SBO) and ATWS 20.8 Steam geneato tube uptue 9.3 Tansients initiated by intenal flooding 0.8 Sum ~100

11 Table 8: Release Categoies, Associated Times of Release, Factions of the Total PDS Fequency, and Factions of the Integal Risk of Activity in the Immediate Vicinity of the Plant GKN II RC Desciption Release Categoy Faction [%] Peiod of Stat of Release Total Fequency Risk of Activity a) RC-B Uncoveed SGTR vey ealy RC-E Coveed SGTR vey ealy 0 0 RC-D Containment isolation failue vey ealy << 0.1 < 0.1 RC-A LOCA outside containment vey ealy << 0.1 << 0.1 RC-C Ealy containment uptue vey ealy to ealy < RC-F Sump suction line failue intemediate RC-G Late containment uptue intemediate to late < 0.1 < 0.1 RC-H Basemat melt-though late 0 0 RC-I Unfilteed containment venting late < 0.1 < 0.1 RC-J Filteed containment venting late RC-K No containment failue late 22.3 << 0.1 SGTR: Steam Geneato Tube Ruptue LOCA: Loss of Coolant Accident Sum ~100 ~100 a) without noble gases A fist compaison of Tables 7 and 8 shows, that, as is the case fo GKN I, the accident pogession chaacteistics associated with most PDS that dominate the total PDS fequency, e.g., pimay-side LOCAs and tansients, lead to late filteed containment venting o even no containment failue. Again, it is obvious that the contibution of the fequency-dominant PDS to the integal isk of activity is extemely low. In a compaable way to GKN I, especially cetain PDS with mino contibution to the total PDS fequency, i.e., those with SGTR, dominate the integal isk of activity in the immediate vicinity of the plant. Again, similaly to GKN I, this isk was found to be extemely low. The mean isk of sevee accidents at GKN II is about 0.6 % of the mean isk of the elease of the total coe inventoy (excluding noble gases). This demonstates the effectiveness of safety-elevant equipment and measues in mitigating the consequences of sevee accidents at GKN II. Figue 2: Relative Contibutions of Release Categoies to the Total PDS Fequency RC-K 9.27 % RC-A 0.31 % RC-B 0.05 % RC-C 0.04 % RC-D 1.42 % RC-E 6.66 % RC-F 0.02 % RC-G 0.22 % RC-H 0.51 % RC-I 4.02 % RC-J % GKN I GKN II Altogethe, the insights found fo GKN I ae confimed by the findings fo GKN II. Theefoe, the following geneal conclusions can be dawn.

12 7. CONCLUSIONS The integal appoach of the PSA is not only a useful but also a necessay supplement to the individual deteministic appoaches to guaantee a save and economic opeation of NPPs. The PSA enables to detemine the extent of damage of the plant and the envionment compehensively and to quantify the uncetainties of the esults. The use of thee PSA levels is a pagmatic appoach connected with the knowledge base and uncetainties of the phenomena to be quantified fo the vaious levels. These phenomena ae elated fo level-1 to the well-known behaviou of components, systems, and opeatos, fo level-2 to patly known sevee accident pogession and containment challenges, and fo level-3 to only maginally known tanspot behaviou and effectiveness of adionuclides in the envionment. Conclusions fom a PSA should only be dawn if the evaluation of damages is finished completely o is well-founded clea at least. Othewise decisions can late tun out to be integally less efficient. The classical envionment-isk of NPPs as a complete evaluation of damages in the plant and in the envionment is ultimately aived at by the level-3 PSA only, which, howeve, suffes fom lage uncetainties. Theefoe, in this study, the level-2 PSA was extended by a isk appoach that estimates the integal isk of activity of adiological elease to the immediate vicinity of the plant as a metic fo the global consequences to the envionment outside the plant. This isk metic is a chaacteistic plant popety, which meges the lage numbe of individual and intemediate outcomes of the level-1 and level-2 PSA into one meaningful integal numbe. The integal isk of activity of elease was found to be extemely low and compaable fo GKN I and GKN II. The PSAs fo both GKN plants demonstate that those PDS, which dominate fom the pespective of elative fequency, have only a maginal influence on the integal isk of activity. In contast, this isk is dominated just by cetain coe damage states with mino elevance in the PDS pofile of the level-1 PSA. To bing safety impovements only into line with fequency-dominant contibutions of the level-1 PSA might be less efficient fo the integal plant safety because these impovements may have only maginal influence on the isk of activity. Simplifying chaacteistics o paametes, e.g., total coe damage fequency o lage ealy elease fequency, cannot compensate inteelations of the damage developments analyzed plant-specifically. In conclusion, the esults of the PSAs of GKN I and GKN II have demonstated that neithe the coe damage fequencies no the coe damage pofiles ae adequate indicatos fo the integal isk of activity. Futhemoe, neithe the absolute fequency of each elease categoy o of goups of elease fequencies, e.g., LERF o LRF, no the elative popotions of the elease categoy fequencies necessaily allow a conclusion to be made about the integal isk of activity. Refeences [1] W. Käme. Hysteie als Standotnachteil, ode: Deutschland eine Republik de Panikmache?, Intenational Jounal fo Nuclea Powe (atw), Heft 10, pp , (2005). [2] M. Khatib-Rahba, M. Zavisca, Z. Yuan, A. Kall, A. Lubaskiy, D. Rittig, and W. Wene. Stufe 2 de Pobabilistischen Sicheheitsanalyse fü das Kenkaftwek Neckawestheim, Block 1, ERI/GKN , (2007). [3] M. Khatib-Rahba, M. Zavisca, Z. Yuan, A. Kall, A. Lubaskiy, L. Ehlkes, J. Rattke, D. Rittig, and W. Wene. Stufe 2 de Pobabilistischen Sicheheitsanalyse fü das Kenkaftwek Neckawestheim, Block 2, ERI/GKN , (2009). [4] Fachabeitskeis Pobabilistische Sicheheitsanalyse fü Kenkaftweke. Methoden zu pobabilistischen Sicheheitsanalyse fü Kenkaftweke, BfS-SCHR-37/05 and Daten zu pobabilistischen Sicheheitsanalyse fü Kenkaftweke BfS-SCHR-38/05, Bundesamt fü Stahlenschutz, Salzgitte (2005). [5] M. Khatib-Rahba and R. Kaimi. Impotance of Sevee Accident Radiological Releases and Definition of Lage Release, Intenational Jounal fo Nuclea Powe (atw), Heft 7, pp , (2005). [6] A. Stohm, W. Schwaz, M. Khatib-Rahba, M. Zavisca, Z. Yuan, A. Kall, A. Lubaskiy, L. Ehlkes, D. Rittig, and W. Wene. An Appoach to Quantification of Uncetainties in the Risk of Sevee Accidents at Neckawestheim Unit 1 Nuclea Powe Plant and the Risk Impact of Sevee Accident Management Measues, Poceedings of the 9 th Intenational Confeence on Pobabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM9), Hong Kong, (2008).

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