SEMOpx Day-ahead Market Products Stage 2 Progress Report. March 2017

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1 SEMOpx Day-ahead Market Products Stage 2 Progress Report March 2017

2 Contents 1 Introduction Purpose of the Document IAT STAGES Scope of IAT Structure of IAT Creation of Test Data by SEMOpx Performing Test Simulations Assessment of Results Stage Overview Goal Assumptions Outcome Stage Overview Goal Assumptions Outcome Next Steps Disclaimer EirGrid Commercial In Confidence. Page 1

3 1 Introduction EUPHEMIA is the day-ahead pricing algorithm currently in use throughout Europe to perform day-ahead market coupling. It was developed by the Price Coupling of Regions (PCR) initiative, an organisation of European power exchanges. The use of EUPHEMIA for the day-ahead market in the I-SEM is outlined in the SEM Committee s decision on the high level design (HLD) for the I-SEM (SEM A). In order to include the I-SEM in the day-ahead market (DAM) coupling performed by the PCR, it is necessary for SEMOpx to complete tests with the PCR to show that the impact of adding the new market is acceptable. These tests use a test set of data to represent the SEM, and other data, to simulate a period of test dates and assess the effect of this data on the performance of EUPHEMIA. Following this PCR testing, and appropriate assessment of results, the PCR will confirm the DAM coupling arrangements for I-SEM. However, as the PCR requires that the tests are conducted against the version of EUPHEMIA which will be current when the I-SEM is due to go-live, it will not be possible for the PCR to undertake and conclude its testing until closer to I-SEM go-live. This, understandably, creates a period of uncertainty, with a risk to the successful on-time delivery of the I-SEM Project and an issue of confidence for participants as to whether their requirements will be able to be accommodated in EUPHEMIA. SEMOpx recognises the PCR approval step is a key project risk and the concern regarding the period of uncertainty prior to PCR testing formally commencing against the version of EUPHEMIA against which approval can be given. Further, SEMOpx recognises that this risk could affect go-live, if PCR approval is not obtained in a timely fashion, and it is therefore undertaking some early tests of its own against the current version of EUPHEMIA to help to mitigate this risk by gaining some insight and understanding in the interim prior to the formal PCR testing commencing. In particular, as is explained below, SEMOpx will use this interim testing of its own to assist in setting the parameters 1 for the PCR testing. The test set of data for the SEM will represent the unit orders (bids and offers) and bidding zone borders of the market. SEMOpx will need to make a decision about the appropriate representation of these parameters for the PCR simulations. These parameters should accurately reflect the expected nature of the I-SEM DAM. 1 The parameters to be used for PCR testing refer to any parameters within EUPHEMIA which will need to be set to represent the I-SEM DAM in EUPHEMIA. Primarily, the IAT is focused on the parameters relating to the products including the maximum number of each product. EirGrid Commercial In Confidence. Page 2

4 Accordingly, SEMOpx is conscious of the importance of setting the parameters to manage this risk. To aid in the planning of these parameter settings, SEMOpx has developed an approach to undertake its own series of internal assessments and tests (IAT). These tests will look to assess different representations of the SEMOpx parameters. The IAT will look to assess multiple variations for representing the products 2, including both types and number of products represented, in order to provide further information to SEMOpx ahead of deciding on parameters for the PCR tests. It is also hoped that the IAT will provide market participants with the confidence they require that the risk of timely PCR approval not being forthcoming is being mitigated. This will assist parties in their planning and preparations, thereby allowing them to progress their own I-SEM implementation projects against what would otherwise be a period of great uncertainty. 2 Purpose of the Document This document outlines the IAT approach, scope, goals and progress. It should be noted that the IAT approach is not designed in any way to forecast or model the I-SEM DAM or any other market segments. While prices, schedules and other data are produced as a result of the IAT, assessment of these values is considered outside of the scope of the IAT and commentary on these results will not be included in this report. While the IAT is intended to inform SEMOpx s decision on the parameters to be used for PCR testing, it will only provide indicative information e.g. the test data is an estimation of the data which may be used in the PCR testing. Furthermore, the IAT does not form part of the PCR testing. The PCR s decision on the coupling arrangements for the I-SEM DAM is subject to their defined testing processes. The IAT is not a substitute for the PCR testing and it does not guarantee any outcome of that testing. In this context, please note the disclaimer in Section 9 of this report. An initial release of the document was published at the end of January 2017, as represented in the public Level 2 Milestone #61c Publication of report for PCR Change Request against Euphemia V.9.5. This summarised the outcome of an initial stage of IAT, which was based on an average level of DAM participation. Based upon an assessment of the results of that Stage 1, it was determined that the outcomes were sufficient to proceed to Stage 2 of the IAT, a stress test, where the complexity of the representation of the I-SEM DAM parameters would be expanded. This document was updated on 31 st March 2017 to provide interested parties with information on the actions which SEMOpx is taking based upon the results of the Stage 2 of the IAT (e.g. any changes to the parameters) in order to provide participants with the necessary insights into the results of that testing and to detail the next steps in preparation for PCR testing. This updated document fulfils delivery of the Level 2 milestone #61b Publication of report on I-SEM EUPHEMIA testing against EUPHEMIA V In this context, the term products refers to the types of order (bid or offer) which may be submitted by a participant to SEMOpx for the DAM. As the I-SEM DAM will use EUPHEMIA, the products available will be based on the suite of products available in EUPHEMIA. EirGrid Commercial In Confidence. Page 3

5 3 IAT STAGES As explained in Section 1 the key priorities of the IAT are to inform SEMOpx s decision on parameters to be entered for the PCR tests and support the decision-making process. Initially, two stages were proposed, namely: Stage Description Goal 1 Initial Benchmark Confirm data integrity of dataset and act as a benchmark for Stage 2. SEMOpx will represent an average scenario in this stage. 2 Stress Assessment Act as a stressed test with differing numbers of products represented. This stage will look to adapt the benchmark to investigate other representations of the market parameters. Table 1: IAT Stages Depending on the results of Stage 2, further IAT stages may follow in order for SEMOpx to develop the necessary insights to inform the setting of parameters to be used for PCR testing. That is, the results of the stress testing may inform the recalibration of the parameters, which will necessitate further stress testing to understand if the updated values achieve the desired results. This reiteration and refinement will be done subject to the timeframe required to complete PCR testing in line with the I-SEM go-live date. 4 Scope of IAT As explained above, the IAT is designed to assess the I-SEM parameters in order to allow for timely identification of any potential issues (e.g. errors in test datasets) such that they may be addressed ahead of PCR testing. This will allow for a test dataset to be prepared in advance of the PCR testing and to inform the decision-making process for arriving at suitable parameters to represent the I-SEM. Assessment of multiple datasets will allow for due diligence to be applied by SEMOpx in arriving at the chosen parameters for the PCR testing and mitigate the risk that this process takes longer than expected. EirGrid Commercial In Confidence. Page 4

6 5 Structure of IAT An overview of the key steps of IAT is detailed below. 5.1 Creation of Test Data by SEMOpx For each stage of the IAT, SEMOpx will create a set of data to represent the I-SEM DAM. At least two years worth of historical data will be used based on the historical period from 01/05/ /04/2016. This data will include orders (bids and offers) which represent all relevant generator and supplier units in the I-SEM; these orders will be based on historical bid and offer data. It will also include representations of each interconnector based on historical capacity, ramping and loss values. While a dataset is required for each stage, the goal is to arrive at an appropriate dataset (i.e. a dataset which is robust in terms of limits) and then use this dataset in future tests in readiness for PCR testing. As the stages progress, SEMOpx may investigate datasets using different parameters for the purpose of assessing varying approaches. 5.2 Performing Test Simulations Once all data is compiled, tests will be performed. As the IAT is not an official test of the PCR, it will not be possible to replicate fully the conditions of the future PCR testing which will be applicable to the I-SEM DAM. As such, any results must be appropriately caveated and read in this context. 5.3 Assessment of Results Once all of the test data for a testing stage has been run through the process, the test results will be extracted and analysed. The analysis will consider the results and whether changes may be required to parameters for future tests. Whilst it is not possible to release these test results due to PCR confidentiality obligations, these reports will indicate the nature of any actions which SEMOpx is taking based upon the results for example, any changes to the parameters. 6 Stage Overview Stage 1 was completed in late 2016; it was primarily designed to act as an initial benchmark and to prepare the process for stress testing in Stage 2. EirGrid Commercial In Confidence. Page 5

7 6.2 Goal The goal of Stage 1 was to act as an initial benchmark for further testing. It was conducted over the two year historical and one year forecast periods using a set of data consistent with average participation in the DAM. The purpose of this stage was to assess the average scenario as a benchmark. Furthermore, this stage allowed for completion of the process to highlight and address any issues in the creation or conversion processes (i.e. the process applied to convert SEM data into the required format for testing). This was of benefit as, while the tools used to create data had been used in the I-SEM Trialling of EUPHEMIA 3, the tools used had not been used to create a dataset with as many days as required for the IAT or the PCR testing allowing any issues to be highlighted and addressed before they had an impact on the timing of the PCR testing. 6.3 Assumptions The dataset for Stage 1 testing stage was developed to reflect an average level of DAM participation, based on the following assumptions: All units present in the SEM historical day will be represented Each unit will be represented once only There will be a mix of simple, complex block and linked block orders The number of complex and block orders will represent average expected use of these order types o Each unit represented using a complex order will use one order per day o Block orders will cover a period of 8 hours o Each unit represented using linked block orders will use between 3 and 12 depending on the number of price quantity pairs in their commercial offer data (COD) o Complex and linked block orders will be used for baseload and mid-merit thermal units and pumped storage hydro units Values for wind and load will be taken from the respective ex-ante forecast values Other units will be represented using simple orders 6.4 Outcome Following an assessment of Stage 1 of the IAT by SEMOpx, it was decided that the results were sufficient to proceed to Stage 2 of the IAT, as planned. The priority identified for the first iteration of Stage 2 is to expand on complexity of the representation of the I-SEM DAM parameters. While a range of products had been used in Stage 1, this represented an average case. SEMOpx, following assessment of the Stage 1 results, has decided to expand the number of orders used for Stage 2. This will be primarily aimed at increasing the number of complex and linked block orders for the I-SEM. This will be expanded to represent hypothetical maxima of these orders in each test day in line with the goal of Stage 2. In order to be comprehensive, Stage 2 may involve multiple iterations with different maximum numbers of orders included. 3 EirGrid Commercial In Confidence. Page 6

8 7 Stage Overview Stage 2 of the IAT commenced in quarter ; it was primarily to act as an extension to the initial benchmarking as set out in Stage Goal The goal of Stage 2 was to act as an extension to the testing performed in Stage 1. Representing a significant step change in complexity, Stage 2 of the IAT was conducted using a set of data consistent with a higher level of participation in the DAM than that explored in Stage 1. This higher level of complexity reflected a level of participation in the market reflective of a consistent peak level of participation, as opposed to the average level of Stage 1 of the IAT, as well as reflecting potential market growth in order to assess values to be used as maximum limits on products. Furthermore, the goal was to assess if this higher level of participation identified any specific issues with products not seen in the average volumes assessed in the Stage 1 test. The final outcome of Stage 2 is to arrive at the list of expected SEMOpx products from the list of those marked for investigation during the I-SEM Trialling of EUPHEMIA, namely: Simple orders; Complex orders; Block orders; Linked block orders; and Exclusive Group orders. 7.3 Assumptions The key difference between the data used for Stage 2 and the data used for Stage 1 was to expand the number of products used per day in order to assess the values required to provide limits which would offer a high level of flexibility in all offered products. Development of the data set for Stage 2 of the IAT was based on the following assumptions: EirGrid Commercial In Confidence. Page 7

9 All units present in the SEM historical day will be represented In order to create the number of orders required to represent this higher level of participation, each unit may be represented more than once using different products (e.g. the same unit represented using a complex order and a set of linked block orders) o Units may be represented multiple times using different values in products o Units may be represented multiple times using different products There will be a mix of simple, complex, block and linked block orders The number of complex and block orders will represent a high level of use of these products Values for wind and load will be taken from the respective ex-ante forecast values A number of units will be represented using simple orders 7.4 Outcome Stage 2 did not highlight any specific issues with products. Following an assessment of Stage 2 of the IAT by SEMOpx, it was determined that the results were sufficient to support the products which SEMOpx expects to offer in the DAM. These products will be: Simple orders; Complex orders; Block orders; Linked block orders; and Exclusive Group orders. However, the results of Stage 2 were not conclusive about the limits appropriate for the SEMOpx exchange. Following assessment of the Stage 2 results, it was decided that: Additional stages of the IAT are required to assess the limits which will be applicable in SEMOpx for golive; and An initial set of limits will be put into the draft SEMOpx rules and operating procedures to ensure the necessary provision is included in the SEMOpx rules and operating procedures before they are finalised in June 2017 (Level 2 Plan Milestone #118); the values of these limits are expected to be updated at a later date following completion of the PCR testing (Level 2 Plan Milestone #61d). 8 Next Steps As outlined in Section 7.4, additional testing is required to assess the limits which will be applicable for I-SEM golive which is scheduled for May Accordingly, a Stage 3 of IAT will be introduced. This additional stage of IAT is scheduled to be conducted by the end of May Additional stages of the IAT may be proposed as necessary, depending on the outcomes of Stage 3. Where an additional stage of IAT is completed, SEMOpx will produce an updated progress report. The purpose of this Stage 3 of IAT will be to further investigate the impact of differing levels of products to provide additional information to SEMOpx regarding which initial set of limits to include in drafting the SEMOpx rules and operating procedures. This Stage 3 IAT is intended to be performed in sufficient time to allow the results to feed into the final drafting of the SEMOpx rules and operating procedures which are currently scheduled for the end of May 2017 to allow for approval of those rules by the Regulatory Authorities in June EirGrid Commercial In Confidence. Page 8

10 The initial set of limits will be derived from the data and assumptions used in Stages 1 to 3 of the IAT and they will be included into the SEMOpx rules and operating procedures according to the drafting timelines, as communicated by SEMOpx. As these initial values for the limits are expected to be updated following completion of the PCR testing, appropriate transitional arrangements will be included in drafts of the SEMOpx rules and operating procedures for consideration by market participants. Subject to the results of Stage 3 of the IAT, it is the intention of SEMOpx to conduct further IAT to determine a final set of limits. As a consequence, these final limits may differ from the initial set of limits determined based on Stages 1 to 3 of IAT. Final clarity on the limits will be linked to validation by the PCR that the PCR testing process has been completed, which is being tracked by I-SEM Level 2 milestone #61d. EirGrid Commercial In Confidence. Page 9

11 9 Disclaimer The Information is provided as is and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made in relation to the Information and all such representations or warranties, express or implied, in relation to the Information are hereby excluded to the fullest extent permitted by law. No responsibility, liability or duty of care to you or to any other person in respect of the Information is accepted, and any reliance you or any other person places on the Information is therefore strictly at your own or their own risk. In no event will liability be accepted for any loss or damage including, without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, arising out of or in connection with the use of the Information. By using or relying on the Information, you automatically consent to the terms and conditions of this disclaimer. In the event that the Information is provided by you, in whole or in part, to a third party for whatever reason you shall ensure that this disclaimer is included with the Information and brought to the attention of the third party. Copyright Notice All rights reserved. The entire publication is subject to the laws of copyright. This publication may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by means, electronic or manual, including photocopying without the prior written permission of EirGrid plc. EirGrid Plc 2017 The Oval, 160 Shelbourne Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4. Ireland. EirGrid Commercial In Confidence. Page 10

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