Valuation of Biosimilar and Key Value Drivers Dr. Patrik Frei October 2015 Biosimilars Asia
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1 Valuation of Biosimilar and Key Value Drivers Dr. Patrik Frei October 0 Biosimilars Asia
2 Agenda Introduction Valuation of Biosimilar Key Value Driver / Conclusion
3 Venture Valuation Independent assessment and valuation of Life Sciences companies / therapeutic products Company, Deals & Investors Database - Biotechgate.com - Switzerland (HQ); Canada; UK; Singapore; India; China - Global experience with people - Track record of over 0 valued companies / products - Investor clients such as Novartis, GSK, Fraunhofer Gesellschaft, European Investment Bank; Company clients: Arpida/Evolva; SC; - Product valuation for licensing deals
4 Valuation of Biosimilar Company Country Ownership Raised* m USD Cap. USD S Bio (SBio) Inc. China Public (IPO 0) 9.8Bn Coherus Biosciences, Inc. USA Public (IPO 0).0Bn BeiGene (Beijing) Co., Ltd China Private 7 XBiotech Inc. USA Public (IPO 0) 76.6M Momenta Pharmaceuticals USA Public (IPO 00) 7.Bn Oncobiologics, Inc. USA Private FINOX Biotech SwitzerlandPrivate * Raised in last years Source: Biotechgate.com
5 rnpv Product Valuation. Development phase => investment (r) => success rate. phase => revenues Patent expiry => end of revenues (often no terminal value). Discount / WACC => non-specific risk Cash Flow Time Development Phase
6 Five Step Process Determine Cash Flows in Development Phase Determine Cash Flows in Phase Discount with Adjust for Sum discounted cash flows 6
7 rnpv Example - Phase I product - % discount rate - % Probability of success (p to market) CF: USD 8m DCF: USD 6m rnpv: USD 0m 00'000 0'000 00'000 0'000 00'000 0'000 00'000 0' '000 Cash Flow Discounted CF rnpv '000 '000 0'000 '000 0'000 '000 0'000 ' '000-0'000 Discounted CF rnpv
8 Agenda Introduction Valuation of Biosimilar Key Value Driver / Conclusion 8
9 Development Phase Innovative Biologics Determine cost and duration of clinical trials Manufacturing Regulatory affairs Long term animal tox. studies Biosimilar Shorter development timelines / costs Finding patients for clinical trials Comparative trials => cost for original product 9
10 Cost and Lead Times Source: Bernstein Research USD -+bn USD 60 00m Source: Hospira 0
11 Reduce time to market Original product Biosimilar Phase I month / m month / m Phase II 6 month / 0m n/a Phase III 6 month / 0m 6 month / 60m Approval month / 8m month / 6m Total 8 years / m years / 68m rnpv USD 0m USD 0m
12 Phase Develop assumptions to predict the future market Methods used: Bottom-up approach - Based on primary market data Top-down approach - based on comparable products
13 Phase Biosimilar: - Different adaption of Biosimilar (EU / US; Germany vs. rest of Europe) - Uncertainty in future (reimbursement, incentives) - Average price cut of 0% - More patients? (price elasticity) - Different penetration (commodity vs. differentiation) - Competition (original product / biosimilar / biobetter) => share? Cash Flow Development Phase Time Original Biosimilar
14 Phase share: Global SalesAvastin0 7'00 Reduction in pricing 0% '80 Increase in reach due to lower prices % '97 Target indication(colorectalcancer, NSCLC) 80% '70 Competion new therapies 7% ' Competition Originatormarketshare % = '90 First to market Amgen % = 7 Phase III () probabilityadjusted 9% = Phase I () probabilityadjusted 7% = Pre-clinical() probability adjusted % = 76 Product to be valued (phase I) % = 6 Total 00% '
15 Reduced market Original product Biosimilar Peak sales (0) Life Cycle USD 98m Drop of sales after patent expiry USD 6m Growth of % per year rnpv USD 0 m USD -m
16 Cost of Equity / discount rate in rnpv: Early stage % - 8% Mid stage 0% - % Late stage 9% - 0% Pharma below 0% (incl. debt) Source. Cost of equity and non-development associated risks. 6
17 Used discount rate in rnpv: Biosimilar player => lower WACC; Generally higher uncertainty (+) % => USD 0m 8% => USD m % => USD m 7
18 Adjust for risk (I) Source: Nature Biotechnology; Clinical development success rates for investigational drugs; January 0 8
19 Adjust for (III) The relation between and Value Completion of a phase Direct value increase Original Biosimilar Cumulative Sucess rate: % Value 86% 6% % % Phase I Phase II Phase III NDA/BLA Approval/ 9
20 Adjust for risk (I) Used risk adjustment in rnpv: Biosimilar => lower risk (-) No phase II Individual adjustment Original product Biosimilar Phase I 6% 6% Phase IIa/IIb 60% / % 00% Phase III 6% 6% Approval 86% 86% Cum. Success % % rnpv USD 0m USD 9m 0
21 Summary Original product Biosimilar Costs m 68m Time to market 8 years years Sales 0 USD 98m USD 6m Cum. Success % % rnpv USD 0m USD m rnpv after phase III USD 69m USD 79m
22 Agenda Introduction Valuation of Biosimilar Key Value Driver / Conclusion
23 Key Value Driver Strategic decision to maximize value Value drivers are same as innovative drugs Variation on Timeline (+) Development costs (+) (-) Competition Pricing Accessible market Attrition rate (+) (+/-) => / Competition / Pricing as high impact
24 Thank you for listening! Slides available on => resource center Tel.: Venture Valuation Switzerland / Singapore p.frei@venturevaluation.com
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