Biotechnology Certificate New Technologies For Health

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1 Weekly Barometer 25 janvier 2012 Biotechnology Certificate New Technologies For Health April 2017 ATONRÂ PARTNERS SA 12, Rue Pierre Fatio 1204 GENEVA SWITZERLAND - Tel:

2 2 Investment Case After two very tough years marked notably by political rhetoric on drug pricing and a very low level of drug approvals by the FDA in 2016, we believe Biotechnology is ripe for a rerating in 2017 as some important drug approvals might change the perception around the sector and valuations are undemanding, a catalyst for M&A Specifically, the first drug to be potentially approved using genes as medicines (Spark Therapeutics) and the first potential approval for the CAR-T drug (Kite Pharmaceuticals) could support sentiment as we move towards mid-2017 We also believe that personalized medicine is not far away from becoming ubiquitous as prices for new testing (including DNA analysis) and analysis are coming down sharply Against this backdrop, we favor Biotech companies exposed to gene therapies, antibodies and rare diseases over the larger market cap names which benefited more from rising drug prices than from volume growth Biotechnology Certificate details Issuing bank: UBS AG Zurich, Calculation agent: UBS AG, London Branch ISIN: CH Currency: USD Fees: 1.6% management fee

3 3 Immunotherapy Personalized Medicine Cardiovascular Rare diseases Neurology

4 4 What Is Biotechnology? The term has appeared for the first time with the discovery of DNA Modern biotechnology involves the use of live organisms or their products (bacteria or enzymes) to manufacture drugs Biotechnology products have wider applications than classic pharma A completely different business model than pharma: R&D intensive Smaller size Entrepreneurial High risk, high reward profile Today lines are blurred between pure biotech and pharmaceutical companies as these industries are partially consolidating

5 5 Solution To A Global Social Issue - The "Hope Offering" Entrepreneurial, knowledge intensive High risk, high reward profile, strictly regulated R&D dependent, high capital requirements (private and public funding) Reimbursement and pricing important success factors Computing power is an underlying fundamental of the industry Constant business model evolution

6 $ billion Biotechnology Certificate 6 Global Biotechnology Market Expected To Grow By 8% CAGR Through $ 533 bn 500 $ 452 bn $ 491 bn 400 $ 358 bn $ 383 bn $ 416 bn Year Source: MarketLine Industry Profile

7 7 United States Dominate The Biotechnology Market Geography 2015 (in $ Bn) Market share (%) United States % Europe % Asia-Pacific (ex. Japan) % Japan % Middle East % Rest of the World % Total $357.9B Source: AtonRâ Partners & MarketLine Why? An entrepreneurial ecosystem, more active venture capital, M&A and IPO market

8 8 Global Mortality Causes In 2015 (nb. of cases) Diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine 6% Neurological and mental 4% Other 1% Injuries 8% Infections 16% Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional 6% Digestive 2% Chronic liver 2% Chronic respiratory 7% Cancer 16% Cardiovascular 32%

9 9 New Challenges For A New World (I) Oncology cases have increased by 17% worldwide during the last 10 years due to the aging of the population (probability increases with age) Neurological Diseases are affecting more and more people (+35.2% growth from 2005) due to: Aging, Obesity, Smoking and Genetic Predisposition Diabetes and chronic kidney diseases increased worldwide by 30% from 2005 due to: Obesity, High Blood Pressure, Smoking, Environmental, Inactivity

10 10 New Challenges For A New World (II) Infection cases have decreased by 10% during the last 10 years led primarily by decreases in HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis cases Cheaper gene sequencing trigger the development of personalized medicine notably in oncology Rare diseases are more and more attractive due to governmental support and high profit margins Rare diseases affect That s 1 in 10! Orphan drug sales could reach $178 bn by 2020 ( CAGR 12%) In the last 5 years of all new drug approvals were for rare diseases

11 WW Market Share (%), 2022 Biotechnology Certificate 11 Oncology Has The Largest Market Potential 20% Top 10 Therapeutic Areas By Market Share & Sales Growth 18% 16% Oncology treatment sales are expected to reach $190bn by % 12% Oncology; 16.30% market share 10% 8% Anti-rheumatics Anti-diabetics Anti-virals 6% 4% Vaccines Sensory Organs Dermatologicals 2% Anti-hypertensives Bronchodilators 0% MS therapies -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% % sales growth Source: EvaluatePharma 2016 Emerging markets will lead Anti-diabetics growth

12 12 50 Number of new drugs approved by FDA Source: AtonRâ Partners, EvaluatePharma 2016 A record year for FDA approvals in 2015, followed by an unprecedented low number in 2016 as fewer applications were submitted and complete response letters (CRLs) were sent due to manufacturing practice deficiencies (GMP) 2017 is expected to be much more promising as: many important drugs in the last stages of development are awaiting approval the 21st Century Cure Bill is aimed at getting new drugs and devices approved faster Trump is to overhaul and streamline the FDA Accelerate the approval process for new drugs

13 13 Food and Drug Administration The first level of decision-making before commercialization consistent legal and political framework across states the FDA has the most demanding approval standards in the world The FDA does not decide on a drug s reimbursement policy: insurance companies have the right to decide individually biotech companies start reimbursement discussions at the earliest stages of research Percentage of People by Type of Health Insurance Coverage in US 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% With Health Insurance 91% Uninsured 9% Private insurance 56% Employment based 49% Direct purchase 7% Government plan 36% Medicaid 20% Medicare Military Health Care 2% 14% Source: Census Bureau's March 2014, March 2015, and March 2016 Current Population Survey (CPS: Annual Social and Economic Supplements).

14 14 Upcoming Catalysts Aging population Personalized Medicine Chronic diseases M&A potential Growth Emerging countries Orphan drugs Government support Nutrition habits

15 15 Personalized Medicine: The Future Of Medicine? Treatments targeted to the needs of individual patients Technological breakthroughs and computer power are giving a boost to this field Strong government support Identify the best drug against this mutation Personalized Treatment Find DNA mutation 28% of 2015 FDA Approvals were personalized medicines Source: 2015 Progress Report: Personalized Medicine at FDA

16 16 A Fast Changing World Changing Nutrition Habits Obesity levels (13% of worldwide obese population comes from the U.S.). The two countries showing the highest growth in obesity are China and India (15% of the worldwide obese population) leading to: Cardiovascular diseases Diabetes Musculoskeletal Disorders Cancers Emerging Markets: A Real Opportunity For Biotech huge populations increasing prosperity and standards of living (growing middle class) aging population Global executives are expecting 30% of their biopharmaceutical sales to come from emerging markets by 2018

17 Is Expected To Be A Very Strong Year In M&A Strong pipeline in high growth therapeutics External growth through M&A represents an attractive opportunity 2015 worldwide biopharma M&A Record deal value of $430 billion Novel technologies platform High returns potential Cheap Valuations

18 Disclaimer 18 This report has been produced by the organizational unit responsible for investment research (Research unit) of AtonRâ Partners and sent to you by the company sales representatives. As an internationally active company, AtonRâ Partners SA may be subject to a number of provisions in drawing up and distributing its investment research documents. These regulations include the Directives on the Independence of Financial Research issued by the Swiss Bankers Association. Although AtonRâ Partners SA believes that the information provided in this document is based on reliable sources, it cannot assume responsibility for the quality, correctness, timeliness or completeness of the information contained in this report. The information contained in these publications is exclusively intended for a client base consisting of professionals or qualified investors. It is sent to you by way of information and cannot be divulged to a third party without the prior consent of AtonRâ Partners. While all reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the information contained is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. Past performance is not indicative or a guarantee of future results. Investment losses may occur, and investors could lose some or all of their investment. Any indices cited herein are provided only as examples of general market performance and no index is directly comparable to the past or future performance of the Certificate. It should not be assumed that the Certificate will invest in any specific securities that comprise any index, nor should it be understood to mean that there is a correlation between the Certificate s returns and any index returns. Any material provided to you is intended only for discussion purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security and should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities.

Biotechnology Certificate New Technologies For Health

Biotechnology Certificate New Technologies For Health Weekly Barometer 25 janvier 2012 Biotechnology Certificate New Technologies For Health January 2018 ATONRÂ PARTNERS SA 12, Rue Pierre Fatio 1204 GENEVA SWITZERLAND - Tel: + 41 22 310 15 01 http://www.atonra.ch

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