Where Nanotechnology Is Headed?

Transcription

1 September 10, 2010 Where Nanotechnology Is Headed? Dr. Zvi Yaniv Applied Nanotech, Inc Longhorn Blvd., Suite 107 Austin, TX Phone x103

2 Rate of change in the global economy We are all witnessing the ever increasing rate of change in the global economy. Science and technology are also advancing rapidly. Breakthroughs and new technologies seem to be introduce at a relentless rate. What exactly is nanotechnology and what is its role in the global economy? 2

3 The market for nanotechnology-related products For analysts these markets are enormous in billions and even trillions of dollars. Where do these large evaluations come from? What are the directions in which a nanotechnology company should concentrate its efforts? 3

4 Leading industries where nanotechnology is perceived to play an important role Nano-(micro)-electronics Nano-medicine Food Renewable energy Fuel cells Hydrogen storage Optimization of structural materials Digital information devices 4

5 Nano-(micro)-electronics Is the extension of Moore s Law dependent on nanotechnology? Is volume production at sub-30 nanometer level a result of nanotechnology or continuous improvements in existing manufacturing equipment? There are no nanotechnology effects that contributed substantially to the current over 2 billion transistors per chip. We expect strange effects at gate dimensions of few nanometers. Nanotechnology may play an important role in understanding these strange effects and providing solutions for assuring the extension of Moore s Law. The microelectronic industry is huge, but it cannot be included in its entirety as a potential nanotechnology market. 5

6 Nanomedicine We all observe a nomenclature penetration of nano to medicine and pharma. Nanomedicine and nanopharma are huge markets. Are these markets a result of nanotechnology inputs? Fighting cancer cells, understanding metabolic reactions, the potential integration of DNA concepts with nanotechnology are studied at the molecular level; in the future nanotechnology may have a huge impact on medicine and pharma. However, what are the markets for pure nanotechnology contributions? Who can evaluate them? What will be the direct impact of the understanding of processes at the nanolevel on finding new chemical/biological effects at these dimensions to open new applications and markets? 6

7 Renewable energy Solar renewable energy is dominant. Still expensive compared with other energy sources Nanotechnology may play an important role driving down the cost of solar elements and improving their efficiency New materials, new dopants, improved light collection, changing the processes from subtractive to additive (printing), new low cost high quality transparent conductive substrates are some of the few contributions to renewable energy that require a strong nanotechnology impact. Solar renewable energy is being deployed in the fields as we speak. Who can evaluate the nanotechnology impact on the enormous market of renewable energy? 7

8 Digital information devices Nanotechnology already impacted the LCD TV industry. Without applying nanotechnology liquid crystal molecules could not be aligned and as a result the optical effect utilized in LCDs could not have been created. Enhancement in LED and OLED materials are utilizing nanotechnology as we understand it. When someone buys a LCD HDTV, an I-Pod or an I-Pad, does he know or recognize the nanotechnology impact? For example, what is the market value for the inventors and enablers of liquid crystal alignment in this colossal industry? 8

9 Other examples Food industry: increasing yield, assuring safety, reducing cost, healthy food Fuel cells: improved catalysts, new materials, membranes Hydrogen industry hydrogen storage, new materials, infrastructure Improved structural materials electrical properties, mechanical properties, thermal properties, nanoparticles functionalization, new dispersion techniques 9

10 The views of Prof. Harry Kroto After the buckyball discovery (Prof. Harry Kyoto, 1995), a lot of people jumped on the buckyball chemistry and on the nanotubes. In Prof. Kroto s opinion, even today the applications of this type of nanoparticles are not at the predicted level because they all have to be reproducible and we are not at that situation at the present time. Prof. Kroto believes that the utilization of these particles to secure the continuation of Moore s Law will be highly unlikely in the near future: I cannot see any research at the present time that is along the right track. I am not being pessimistic, I just don t quite see how it is going to be solved. Nano Today, volume 5, # 5-6 October 7,

11 The views of Prof. Andre Geim The discoverer of graphene (2004) declares: The talk now is focused on graphene-based electronics. My point of view that it is not the biggest and certainly is not the most viable application for graphene; it is a very long term search with an uncertain future. Nano Today, volume 5, # 5-6 October 7,

12 Market realism in printed electronics Time for a dose of market realism in printed electronics, Nanomarkets, March 2010 The dirty little secret is that the technology revolution always begins with more hype and with absence of market reality It is easy to talk or to deliver power point presentations at conferences, but delivering products that people will pay for is what really counts. As with CNTs and graphene impact for the microchip industry, great confusion exists with respect to printed electronics. We need to be able to differentiate between technical realism and market realism. 12

13 Nanotechnology a decade ago The National Science Foundation predicted a decade ago that the sales of nanotech related products will reach $1 trillion by 2015 and calculated that it would take 2 million workers Filling nanotech jobs, July 19, 2010, written by Ann M. Thayer 13

14 2015 is just over the horizon It is clear that the hype has died down and investment momentum has slowed Many small firms have closed their doors and some state nanotech initiatives have stalled Filling nanotech jobs, July 19, 2010, written by Ann M. Thayer 14

15 and we are still continuing to dream That means that since we can manipulate matter as small as 1 nanometer we can also work within structures like cells, DNA, and molecules in ways that have never been possible before Nanotech: the sky is the limit! Think about that for a moment anything is possible to envision and produce. Now that s radical!. Steve Christ, Nanotech stocks: the wave of the future August 26,

16 What does the future predict? Nano-enabled molecular computers The ability to replace anything from the ground up at the atomic level Nano-robots Custom designed therapies based on individual DNA Smart dust Computers that operate by reading the brain waves Steve Christ, Nanotech stocks: the wave of the future, August 26, 2010 Observation. Nothing changed from what we said in

17 Now in 2010 we are looking for a singularity In order for nanotech to become almost infinite, we need a point called singularity such that from this point forward we will witness the nanotechnology revolution. But before any of these quantum leaps become reality, the industry must grow from its current humble beginnings (and this is August 2010). The singularity, in other words, is advancement in the future world that is not even on the radar screen yet (please remember the title Nanotech stocks: the wave of the future. The author simply did not define when this future is predicted to happen!?). Needless to say, reaching that point of singularity will require the passing of numerous milestones. Steve Christ, Nanotech stocks: the wave of the future, August 26,

18 Nanotechnology companies to watch Here are four companies to watch as the nano-revolution begins to unfold Harris & Harris Group, a holding company of nanotechnology startups FEI Corp., a manufacturer of analytical equipment ArrowHead Research Corp., a holding company that operates a portfolio of companies with innovative nanotechnologies A123 System, Inc., fresh of its $428 million IPO, 2000 employees, no product, building the factories to make high energy lithium batteries with its patented nano-phosphate technology Steve Christ, Nanotech stocks: the wave of the future, Observation. Is this all?! August 26,

19 Is nanotechnology an industry that can be defined? A commonly accepted definition of nanotechnology is that it deals with devices smaller than 100 nanometer in size Nanotech machines will use individual atoms and molecules as mechanical moving parts and will enable us to take apart and rebuilt just about anything atom by atom. Thomas Barfield, Guardian.co.uk, September 13, 2010 Many people proposed that nanotech was going to be an industry that can be defined, but it s nearly impossible to second-guess the path an emerging technology will take. Tim E. Harper, CEO, Cientifica Filling nanotech jobs, July 19,

20 How to measure nanotech jobs? One is by assessing penetration primarily the use of nanomaterials into production and then estimating the number of workers who handle something nano. Another is by counting employment in new areas that are considered nanotech, such as advanced flat panel displays, nanophotonics and molecular medicine. Mikhail C. Roco Senior advisor for nanotechnology at NSF 20

21 What is the situation in Texas? New York, Pennsylvania, California and Massachusetts are four of the top five states working in nanotech related areas. Initiatives in these states have expended, but in Texas, the other top-five state, some economic development have waned. Filling nanotech jobs, July 19, 2010, written by Ann M. Thayer 21

22 Nanotechnology as an enabling technology Sarah Fister Gail in Clean Rooms September 2008 in the paper The nanorevolution Nanotech is not a new market or industry: it is enabling technology that improves many types of products. Novel materials currently under development offer great promise for a new generation of products because they deliver higher strength, lower weight and other attributes that have not previously occurred in conventional materials. Gail believes that nanotechnology will take center stage as a result of novel materials currently under development only by

23 The role of nanotechnology Nanotechnology will play an extraordinary role in the present economic/industrial revolution. We need to be realistic and understand the place of nanotechnology, its role and contributions to colossal existing and future markets. The near term impact of nanotechnology will be mainly through new nanomaterials with properties that have not previously been observed in conventional ones. Valuation of nanotechnology will be in the hundreds or millions or billions of dollars, not in the exaggerated valuation of trillions of dollars. 23

24 The impact of market s realism Should nanotechnology companies pursue multiple markets assuming a company can afford the diversification? Defocusing vs. focusing? Diversified set of technologies requires large budgets. Very few nanotechnology startups can afford to pursue a diversified technology strategy. Companies valuations will be much smaller due to the market realism. Companies that pursue a diversified set of technologies must find ways to accelerate their commercialization. Valuations of nanotechnology companies will be in hundreds of millions of dollars, at the most in the low billions of dollars. 24

25 Nanotechnology consolidation We believe that nanotechnology is an industry on the verge of unprecedented consolidation activity as shown in diagram below. Markets maturity for nanotechnology Business 2010 Consolidation Time R & D 25

26 Consolidation will occur in the period The number of nanotechnology companies is too large given the real dollars markets for nanotechnology and the risks associated with nanotechnology. The need to pursue the diversified portfolio of technologies Smaller companies built around a single or limited number of technologies will be forced to merge or be acquired in order to reduce risks. Successful small nanotechnology companies that are already public may use shares of their stock for further consolidation. Mergers and acquisitions will be very active and will facilitate end user commercialization. 26