Natasha E. Bajema, Ph.D. Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction National Defense University

Transcription

1 Natasha E. Bajema, Ph.D. Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction National Defense University

2 Emergence & Convergence Multi-year study on the impact of emerging technologies on the WMD space Threat space Risks and Opportunities Governance space Impact on existing tools, need for new approaches Subject matter expert survey to assess risks and opportunities Five technology groups additive manufacturing, advanced robotics, nanotechnology, nuclear technology, and synthetic biology Launched on 30 June 2016 and remained open until 31 December 2016 Survey invitation sent to about 3,500 SMEs across DoD, the interagency, academia, industry, think-tanks, etc. 176 SMEs agreed to complete the survey We received 120 completed surveys with a response rate of 68% 2

3 Emergence & Convergence What is an emerging technology? Emerging technologies are best understood as science-based innovations with the potential to create a new industry or transform an existing one Emerging technologies demonstrate a number features that help to distinguish them from other technologies, most significantly their disruptiveness and convergence Many emerging technologies are disruptive; they are cheaper, simpler, smaller and often more convenient to use What is convergence? Convergence refers to the synergistic integration of new technologies, each of which is progressing at a rapid rate and interacting with more established fields. 3

4 Emerging Technologies Additive Manufacturing The process of joining materials to make objects from 3D model data, usually layer upon layer, as opposed to subtractive manufacturing methods Additive manufacturing is used to build physical models, prototypes, patterns, tooling components, and production parts Advanced Robotics A branch of mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, electronics engineering and computer science that focuses on the development of robotics and artificial intelligence A robot is a reprogrammable, multifunctional manipulator designed to move material, parts, tools, or specialized devices through various programmed functions for the performance of a variety of tasks 4

5 Emerging Technologies Nanotechnology Applied science, engineering, and technology conducted at the nanoscale, which is about 1 to 100 nanometers. Nanotechnology refers to a group of technologies which manipulate and control nanoscale materials to exploit special properties (quantum effects) and produce new applications Nuclear Technology New ways to exploit the atom to generate electricity (such as nuclear fusion), new types of nuclear reactors, or new ways for producing fissile material Synthetic Biology The convergence of advances in chemistry, biology, computer science, and engineering that enables us to go from idea to product faster, cheaper, and with greater precision than ever before It can be thought of as a biology-based toolkit that uses abstraction, standardization, and automated construction to change how we build biological systems and expand the range of possible products 5

6 Risk Assessment Framework Risk of Misuse Accessibility Ease of Misuse Imminence of Misuse Magnitude of Potential Harm Governability Maturity Rate of Advance Convergence Global Diffusion Tangibility Risk of Misuse High/Low High/High Low/Low Low/High Governability 6

7 Assess Risk of Misuse using the four parameters 2 Technology Assessment 1 Technology Monitoring Decision Framework 1. Accessibility 2. Ease of Misuse 3. Imminence of Misuse 4. Magnitude of Potential Harm Assess Governability using the five parameters 1. Maturity 2. Rate of Advance 3. Convergence 4. Global Diffusion 5. Tangibility Is Governability High? Y N Is Governability Medium? Y N Is the Risk of Misuse High or Medium Y N Risk of Misuse is Low Governability is Low Y Are changes detected? N Continue monitoring emerging technologies with enabling effects for WMD to detect changes or advances which may require new or modified governance measures 3 Devise Tailored Package of Governance Measures 7

8 WMD Development Pathways Additive Manufacturing Advanced Robotics Research & Development Acquisition Production Weaponization Delivery Synthetic Biology Nanotechnology 8

9 The Respondents

10 Survey Population Gender Distribution Age Distribution 19% 81% Male Female 17% 2% 28% 25% 28% Responses Education 4% Bachelors 32% Masters 63% 1% JD PhD/MD 10

11 Survey Population Sector Scientific / Technical Discipline GOVERNMENT 68 BIOLOGIST / LIFE SCIENTIST 43 ACADEMIA 25 ENGINEER 28 INDUSTRY 14 CHEMIST 17 LABORATORY 11 NOT APPLICABLE 16 NONPROFIT 8 PHYSICIST 9 OTHER 8 COMPUTER / DATA SCIENTIST / 8 JOURNALISM 1 OTHER Emerging Tech Experience BIOTECHNOLOGY / GENETIC ENGINEERING / SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY 42 NOT APPLICABLE Responses ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING NANOTECHNOLOGY NUCLEAR ENERGY 12 ADVANCED ROBOTICS

12 Survey Population TECHNOLOGY EXPERTISE Additive Manufacturing Advanced Robotics Nanotechnology Nuclear Energy Synthetic Biology 120 Responses EXPERT VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE KNOWLEDGEABLE INFORMED LAYMAN UNINFORMED

13 Risk of Misuse & Governability

14 The Parameters Risk of Misuse Risk of Misuse Accessibility Ease of Misuse Imminence Magnitude Low Low Low Low Low Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High High High High High Governability Governability Maturity Rate of Advance Convergence Global Diffusion Tangibility Low Low High High High Low Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium Low Low Low High 14

15 Risk of Misuse & Governability Average Score Color* *Colors are flipped for the tangibility and governability parameters **Colors are adjusted slightly for the maturity parameter 15

16 Risk of Misuse Risk of Misuse ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING ADVANCED ROBOTICS NANOTECHNOLOGY NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY Advanced States Developing States Non-State Actors 16

17 Risk of Misuse Accessibility Ease of Misuse ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING ADVANCED ROBOTICS NANOTECHNOLOGY NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING ADVANCED ROBOTICS NANOTECHNOLOGY NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY Advanced States Developing States Non-State Actors Advanced States Developing States Non-State Actors 17

18 Risk of Misuse Imminence of Misuse Magnitude of Potential Harm ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING ADVANCED ROBOTICS NANOTECHNOLOGY NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING ADVANCED ROBOTICS NANOTECHNOLOGY NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY 18

19 Advanced vs. Developing States ADVANCED STATES Additive Manufacturing Advanced Robotics Nanotechnology Nuclear Technology Synthetic Biology DEVELOPING STATES Additive Manufacturing Advanced Robotics Nanotechnology Nuclear Technology Synthetic Biology RISK OF MISUSE ACCESSIBILITY EASE OF MISUSE MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL HARM IMMINENCE OF MISUSE RISK OF MISUSE ACCESSIBILITY EASE OF MISUSE MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL HARM IMMINENCE OF MISUSE 19

20 Developing States vs. Non-state Actors DEVELOPING STATES Additive Manufacturing Advanced Robotics Nanotechnology Nuclear Technology Synthetic Biology NON-STATE ACTORS Additive Manufacturing Advanced Robotics Nanotechnology Nuclear Technology Synthetic Biology RISK OF MISUSE ACCESSIBILITY EASE OF MISUSE MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL HARM IMMINENCE OF MISUSE RISK OF MISUSE ACCESSIBILITY EASE OF MISUSE MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL HARM IMMINENCE OF MISUSE 20

21 Governability 4.04 Governability Governability is based on five parameters: Maturity Rate of Advance Convergence Global Diffusion Tangibility ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING ADVANCED ROBOTICS NANOTECHNOLOGY NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY 21

22 Governability Maturity Tangibility Additive Manufacturing Advanced Robotics Nanotechnology Nuclear Technology Synthetic Biology ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING ADVANCED ROBOTICS NANOTECHNOLOGY NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY 22

23 Governability Rate of Advance Type of Growth EXPONENTIAL GROWTH ADVANCING AT A STEADY RATE 3.88 ADVANCING AT A SLOW PACE PLATEAUING DECLINING ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING ADVANCED ROBOTICS NANOTECHNOLOGY NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY

24 Governability Global Diffusion Convergence ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING ADVANCED ROBOTICS NANOTECHNOLOGY NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING ADVANCED ROBOTICS NANOTECHNOLOGY NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY 24

25 Governability 7.00 Governability GOVERNABILITY MATURITY RATE OF ADVANCE CONVERGENCE GLOBAL DIFFUSION TANGIBILITY Additive Manufacturing Advanced Robotics Nanotechnology Synthetic Biology Nuclear Technology 25

26 D High Risk of Misuse Low Governability High Risk of Misuse High Governability C Risk Assessment Matrix Advanced States Developing States Nonstate Actors Additive Manufacturing Advanced Robotics Nanotechnology Nuclear Energy Synthetic Biology 5.0 Risk of Misuse A Low Risk of Misuse Low Governability Governability Low Risk of Misuse High Governability B 26

27 Additive Manufacturing (AM)

28 Opportunities - AM Detection Rapid prototyping and fabrication of sample collection and sensor components and new detection technology Manufacturing of portable, clip-on sensors Countermeasures Local and on-demand manufacturing with a small footprint for needed military parts Using printed cell and organ systems for drug testing and medical countermeasures (bioprinting) More efficient and cost-effective production of low-volume defense systems 28

29 Heat Map - AM Additive Manufacturing EXPERT 8 VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE KNOWLEDGEABLE INFORMED LAYMAN UNINFORMED

30 Risk of Misuse - AM Additive Manufacturing By Actor Type Additive Manufacturing - Specific Technologies RISK OF MISUSE ACCESSIBILITY EASE OF MISUSE IMMINENCE OF MISUSE MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL HARM BIOPRINTING CARBON FIBER PRINTING Accessibility MATERIAL EXTRUSION MATERIAL JETTING Ease of Misuse MICROREACTOR PRINTING POWDER BED FUSION Advanced States Developing States Non-State Actors Magnitude of Potential Harm Imminence of Misuse 30

31 Governability - AM Additive Manufacturing Type of Growth EXPONENTIAL GROWTH ADVANCING AT A STEADY RATE ADVANCING AT A SLOW PACE 10 PLATEAUING 4 DECLINING 0 GOVERNABILITY MATURITY RATE OF ADVANCE CONVERGENCE GLOBAL DIFFUSION TANGIBILITY

32 Ranked for Risk of Misuse - AM 1 43% 8% 4% % 7% 14% 22% 15% 29% % 9% 16% % % % 31% 5 6 Powder Bed Fusion % 27% 12% 15% 6 9% 11% % 11% 4 Carbon Fiber 1 11% 9% 19% 22% 6 Material Jetting 1 9% 2 27% Material Extrusion Microreactor Bioprinting 3 1 9% 13% 34% % 19% 10%

33 WMD Pathways - AM State Actors Non-state Actors Research and Development Research and Development Print novel chemical compounds 4.04 Print novel chemical compounds 2.26 Develop new techniques for enriching uranium 3.66 Use 3D printers to create novel pathogens/microbes 1.92 Use 3D printers to create novel pathogens/microbes 3.04 Develop new techniques for enriching uranium Acquisition and Production Acquisition and Production Print non-nuclear components of a nuclear weapon 5.29 Print known chemical compounds 2.91 Print known chemical compounds 4.57 Print non-nuclear components of a nuclear weapon 2.69 Print components for enriching uranium 4.57 Use 3D printers to create known pathogens/microbes 2.26 Use 3D printers to create known pathogens/microbes 3.49 Print components for enriching uranium 2.17 Print fissile components of a nuclear weapon 3.34 Print fissile components of a nuclear weapon

34 WMD Pathways - AM State Actors Non-state Actors Weaponization and Delivery Weaponization and Delivery Print missile components Print and assemble drones capable of delivering a biological or chemical weapons Test and evaluate new weapons designs Print and assemble drones capable of delivering a biological or chemical weapons Print high explosives Develop delivery systems for biological and chemical weapons Print high explosives 4.94 Print missile components 3.36 Develop delivery systems for biological and chemical weapons Test and evaluate weapon designs for biological and chemical weapons Test and evaluate new weapons designs Test and evaluate weapon designs for biological and chemical weapons

35 Other Enabling Effects - AM Respondents suggested that we missed several enabling effects of additive manufacturing for development or use of WMD Weaponization and Delivery: Printing cell or organ systems to test toxicity, pathogenicity, and effectiveness of biological and chemical weapons Multi-material printing (especially electronics and electromagnetic devices) may facilitate the development of WMD delivery systems Aerosolization technologies for the delivery of stabilized pathogens/microbes 35

36 Advanced Robotics (AR)

37 Opportunities - AR Detection Equip drones or other robotics with detectors to sense CBRN Enhanced surveillance of state and non-state actor activities Swarms of CBRN detectors to enable persistent surveillance Response Use robotics to investigate a scene for CBRN contamination Rapid delivery of countermeasures (e.g., treatment after a biological attack) Use robotics for decontamination after a CBRN attack 37

38 Heat Map - AR Advanced Robotics EXPERT VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE KNOWLEDGEABLE INFORMED LAYMAN UNINFORMED

39 Risk of Misuse - AR Advanced Robotics By Actor Type Advanced Robotics Specific Technologies RISK OF MISUSE ACCESSIBILITY EASE OF MISUSE IMMINENCE OF MISUSE MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL HARM AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS STRONG AI UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES Accessibility Ease of Misuse WEAK AI Advanced States Developing States Non-State Actors Magnitude of Potential Harm Imminence of Misuse 39

40 Governability - AR Advanced Robotics Type of Growth EXPONENTIAL GROWTH ADVANCING AT A STEADY RATE 52 ADVANCING AT A SLOW PACE 15 PLATEAUING 2 DECLINING 0 GOVERNABILITY MATURITY RATE OF ADVANCE CONVERGENCE GLOBAL DIFFUSION TANGIBILITY

41 Ranked for Risk of Misuse - AR UAVs Autonomous Systems 7% 7% 8% % 4% 11% % 4 63% 4 Weak AI Strong AI 40% 4% 9% % 8% 19% % 4 24% 4 41

42 WMD Pathways - AR State Actors Non-state Actors Weaponization and Delivery Weaponization and Delivery Develop drones capable of delivering explosives 6.75 Develop drones capable of delivering explosives 5.79 Develop drones capable of conducting ISR 6.59 Develop drones capable of conducting ISR 5.29 Develop drones capable of targeting individuals for harm/injury 6.39 Develop drones capable of disseminating biological, chemical or radioactive material 5.17 Develop drones capable of disseminating biological, chemical or radioactive material 6.23 Develop drones capable of targeting individuals for harm/injury 5.14 Develop autonomous robots capable of weapon delivery 6.05 Develop autonomous robots capable of weapon delivery 4.47 Develop drones capable of swarming 5.71 Develop drones capable of swarming

43 Other Enabling Effects - AR Respondents suggested that we missed several enabling effects of advanced robotics for development or use of WMD Weaponization and Delivery: Use of unmanned ground vehicles for delivery of explosives and/or WMD UAVs as a potential weapon against aircraft Use of simulation/modeling to determine WMD effects for purposes of targeting Delivery of biological agents against agriculture (plants and animals) 43

44 Nanotechnology (Nano)

45 Opportunities - Nano Detection Sensors for environmental detection Nanotechnology-based tags applied to dual-use components to enhance export control efforts and IAEA safeguards Countermeasures Catalytic nanomaterials for degrading chemical agents, possibly for incorporation into PPE Increased stability of medical countermeasures (longer storage at ambient temperatures) Possible distribution of medical counter measures through water supply Response New materials for decontamination Improved delivery and targeting of medical countermeasures 45

46 Heat Map - Nano Nanotechnology EXPERT 10 VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE KNOWLEDGEABLE INFORMED LAYMAN UNINFORMED

47 Risk of Misuse - Nano Nanotechnology - By Actor Type Nanotechnology Specific Technologies RISK OF MISUSE ACCESSIBILITY EASE OF MISUSE IMMINENCE OF MISUSE MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL HARM Accessibility Ease of Misuse Advanced States Developing States Non-State Actors Magnitude of Potential Harm Imminence of Misuse 47

48 Governability - Nano Nanotechnology Type of Growth EXPONENTIAL GROWTH ADVANCING AT A STEADY RATE 46 ADVANCING AT A SLOW PACE 33 PLATEAUING 3 DECLINING 1 GOVERNABILITY MATURITY RATE OF ADVANCE CONVERGENCE GLOBAL DIFFUSION TANGIBILITY

49 Ranked for Risk of Misuse - Nano Nanoelectronics Nanomedicine 1 18% 28% 2 21% 1 3%6% 21% 3 8% 9% 26% 5 18% 4% 22% 2 23% 16% 5% 35% 6 27% 22% 17% 22% Carbon Nanotubes 1 8% 14% 5 22% % 4 7% 5 30% 1 10% 3 Nanomachines 3 17% 19% 6 Nanoenergetics % Nanoencapsulation 2 32% % % 15% 11% 9%

50 WMD Pathways - Nano State Actors Non-state Actors Research and Development Research and Development Develop nanoscale chemical particles to induce genetic damage or cause physiological effects 4.26 Develop nanoscale chemical particles to induce genetic damage or cause physiological effects Acquisition and Production Acquisition and Production Develop stronger and lighter weight nanomaterials 5.99 Stabilize harmful pathogens/microbes or chemicals using nanoencapsulation 2.38 Stabilize harmful pathogens/microbes or chemicals using nanoencapsulation 4.92 Develop stronger and lighter weight nanomaterials

51 WMD Pathways - Nano State Actors Non-state Actors Weaponization and Delivery Weaponization and Delivery Develop stronger and lighter weight nanomaterials 5.99 Develop nanoenergetics for use in explosive devices 2.75 Develop nanoparticles as a method for delivering drugs and medical treatment 5.98 Stabilize harmful pathogens/microbes or chemicals using nanoencapsulation 2.38 Develop nanoenergetics for use in explosive devices 5.30 Develop stronger and lighter weight nanomaterials 2.30 Stabilize harmful pathogens/microbes or chemicals using nanoencapsulation 4.92 Develop nanoparticles as a delivery system for harmful pathogens and microbes 2.27 Develop nanoparticles as a delivery system for harmful pathogens and microbes 4.31 Develop nanoparticles as a method for delivering drugs and medical treatment

52 Nuclear Technology (NT)

53 Heat Map - NT Nuclear Technology EXPERT VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE KNOWLEDGEABLE INFORMED LAYMAN UNINFORMED

54 Risk of Misuse - NT Nuclear Technology By State Actor Nuclear Technology Specific Technologies RISK OF MISUSE ACCESSIBILITY EASE OF MISUSE IMMINENCE OF MISUSE Advanced States Developing States Non-State Actors MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL HARM LASER ENRICHMENT TECHNOLOGY Accessibility NEXT GENERATION NUCLEAR REACTORS Magnitude of Potential Harm Ease of Misuse Imminence of Misuse FUSION 54

55 Governability - NT Nuclear Technology Type of Growth EXPONENTIAL GROWTH ADVANCING AT A STEADY RATE ADVANCING AT A SLOW PACE 64 PLATEAUING 18 DECLINING 4 GOVERNABILITY MATURITY RATE OF ADVANCE CONVERGENCE GLOBAL DIFFUSION TANGIBILITY

56 Ranked for Risk of Misuse - NT Laser Enrichment Next Generation Reactors Nuclear Fusion 26% 20% 54% % 57% 29% % 17% 18%

57 Synthetic Biology (SynBio)

58 Opportunities - SynBio Detection Enhanced environmental sensing capabilities and surveillance New detection capabilities Rapid threat analysis and enhanced diagnostics Countermeasures Development of vaccines, antibacterials, and therapeutics Faster, cheaper production of existing vaccines and anti-bacterials Targeted drugs and treatment through precision medicine 58

59 Heat Map - SynBio Synthetic Biology EXPERT VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE KNOWLEDGEABLE INFORMED LAYMAN UNINFORMED

60 Risk of Misuse - SynBio Synthetic Biology By Actor Type Synthetic Biology Specific Technologies RISK OF MISUSE ACCESSIBILITY EASE OF MISUSE IMMINENCE OF MISUSE MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL HARM BIOPRINTING BIOINFORMATICS CRISPR/GENE EDITING Accessibility Ease of Misuse GENE DRIVES PRECISION MEDICINE Advanced States Developing States Non-State Actors Magnitude of Potential Harm Imminence of Misuse 60

61 Governability - SynBio Synthetic Biology Synthetic Biology EXPONENTIAL GROWTH ADVANCING AT A STEADY RATE ADVANCING AT A SLOW PACE PLATEAUING 1 DECLINING 0 GOVERNABILITY MATURITY RATE OF ADVANCE CONVERGENCE GLOBAL DIFFUSION TANGIBILITY

62 Ranked for Risk of Misuse - SynBio CRISPR/Gene Editing Gene Drives 13% 6% 1 20% 17% 1 33% 48% % 28% Bioinformatics Precision Medicine 24% 23% 1 12% 1 31% 22% % 20% 18%

63 WMD Pathways - SynBio State Actors Non-state Actors Make an existing pathogen/microbe more infectious and/or lethal Modify existing pathogens/microbes to be capable of rapid growth in the laboratory Increase the transmissibility of an existing pathogen/microbe Enhance existing pathogens/microbes to be resistant to treatment, vaccines and countermeasures Enhance the environmental stability of existing pathogens/microbes Enhance capacity of existing pathogens for evading detection Create novel pathogens/microbes to harm individuals, agriculture or livestock Create novel pathogens/microbes to harm materiel or commodities Create novel pathogens/microbes to contaminate food or water Create novel pathogens/microbes to target population groups Research and Development Make an existing pathogen/microbe more infectious and/or lethal Enhance existing pathogens/microbes to be resistant to treatment, vaccines and countermeasures Enhance the environmental stability of existing pathogens/microbes Modify existing pathogens/microbes to be capable of rapid growth in the laboratory Create novel pathogens/microbes to harm individuals, agriculture or livestock Create novel pathogens/microbes to contaminate food or water Enhance capacity of existing pathogens for evading detection Create novel pathogens/microbes to harm materiel or commodities Create novel pathogens/microbes to target population groups Research and Development Increase the transmissibility of an existing pathogen/microbe

64 WMD Pathways - SynBio State Actors Acquisition and Production Synthesize existing pathogens/microbes 5.35 Make an existing pathogen/microbe more infectious 5.13 Modify existing pathogens/microbes to be capable of 5.11 Increase the transmissibility of an existing 5.11 Enhance existing pathogens/microbes to be resistant 5.04 Recreate past/eradicated pathogens/microbes 5.00 Enhance the environmental stability of existing 4.85 Enhance capacity of existing pathogens for evading Non-state Actors Acquisition and Production Make an existing pathogen/microbe more infectious 3.16 Synthesize existing pathogens/microbes 3.15 Increase the transmissibility of an existing 2.95 Enhance existing pathogens/microbes to be resistant 2.93 Enhance the environmental stability of existing 2.85 Modify existing pathogens/microbes to be capable of 2.81 Recreate past/eradicated pathogens/microbes 2.73 Enhance capacity of existing pathogens for evading Weaponization and Delivery Weaponization and Delivery Enable more effective weaponization of existing pathogens/microbes 5.06 Enable more effective weaponization of existing pathogens/microbes

65 Other Enabling Effects - SynBio Respondents suggested that we missed several enabling effects of synthetic biology for development or use of WMD Research and Development: Development of molecular threat agents (nonliving, non-viral) Modify existing pathogens/microbes to change the host range (and/or to target selected subpopulations) Acquisition and Production: Use of synthetic biology to enable industrial-scale toxin production 65

66 Final Conclusions

67 Risk versus Opportunity Emerging technologies are primarily viewed through the risk lens within the context of national security. Due to the absence of metrics for evaluating opportunity Sensitivity of efforts to enhance detection, countermeasures and response plans may be a factor The emerging technologies in this survey are expected to enhance detection, countermeasures, and response; prevention is neglected by the technologies examined in this survey, but there is definitely promise elsewhere: AI & machine learning Blockchain We are trained to think in terms of prevention for countering WMD (left of boom, left of loss, etc.) Should we put more emphasis on detection, countermeasures and response in the future? 67

68 State versus Non-State Actors State actors were consistently assessed higher scores than non-state actors One negligible exception: Non-state actors (3.95) were assessed a slightly higher risk of misuse for synthetic biology than developing nation states (3.91) The data results in the survey do not support current hype about non-state actors leveraging CRISPR to develop biological weapons Non-state actors were consistently assessed low scores across all technology groups An important exception was the development of drones for use in terrorist operations and attacks Non-state actors are most likely to use advanced robotics and additive manufacturing to support the weaponization and delivery stage of their operations, but not necessarily for the delivery of WMD Non-state actors are least likely to use nanotechnology 68

69 Direct versus Indirect Effects Emerging technologies vary in their impact on WMD development pathways In the near-term, additive manufacturing and nanotechnology appear to have indirect effects at all stages of WMD development In contrast, synthetic biology and advanced robotics appear to have more direct and focused effects Synthetic biology appears to have greatest impact on research and development and R&D related efforts during the acquisition and production stage Advanced robotics has impact on weaponization and delivery due to the high accessibility and ease of misuse of UAVs For technologies with direct effects, it will be easier to justify control measures to mitigate risks Given their broad applicability and indirect impact on WMD, the risks of additive manufacturing and nanotechnology will be harder to control given a high opportunity cost 69

70 Old versus New Technologies Nuclear technology scores provided an interesting contrast to the emerging technologies in this study, confirming many of their key characteristics Accessibility to a broader set of actors Utility in a broader set of end-use applications Ease of use and affordability Digital character Rapid advancement High convergence with other emerging technologies Global diffusion Synthetic biology and nanotechnology were assessed similar scores (somewhat higher) for magnitude of potential harm than nuclear technology 70

71 Old versus New Technologies 7.00 Governability GOVERNABILITY MATURITY RATE OF ADVANCE CONVERGENCE GLOBAL DIFFUSION TANGIBILITY Additive Manufacturing Advanced Robotics Nanotechnology Synthetic Biology Nuclear Technology 71

72 General versus Specific Technologies Assessed scores for the technology groups as a whole were higher than the scores for specific technologies Potential factor: scores for technology groups were assessed separately for advanced states, developing states and non-state actors Another factor: Much of the potential of emerging technologies remains untapped. SMEs may have accounted for this when assessing the technology group as a whole 72

73 General versus Specific Technologies Risk of Misuse Accessibility Ease of Misuse Magnitude of Potential Harm Imminence of Misuse

74 Other Emerging Technologies Respondents suggested the following technologies (not covered in the survey) as having enabling effects for WMD: Advanced Computing/Quantum computing Big Data Dark Web for sharing/exchange of information Cyberwarfare Electromagnetic warfare/emp High Power Microwave Lasers Geoengineering Cloaking Fermentation Aerosolization 74