Assessing the potential impact of GM crops for Ireland

Transcription

1 Assessing the potential impact of GM crops for Ireland Dr. Ewen Mullins Teagasc Oak Park Crops Research Centre ABIC, August 26 th, Cork

2 Teagasc GM crop research programme Established in 22 as part of plant biotechnology unit Tasked with evaluating suitability of GM technology for the Irish tillage sector Potential (risk) impact on the environment? Farmers grow them economic impact? Can GM crop systems coexist with conventional and organic?

3 Facilitating coexistence Minimising a crop s potential for gene flow (i.e. segregation) Varies from crop-to-crop High risk v. Low risk 3 25 CPW CPC CSV CSF Numerically quantify a crop s potential for gene flow? GFI value Gene Flow Index (GFI, max val.=27) 5 Wheat Barley OSR Maize Sugar Beet Potato Ryegrass Crop pollen crop (CPC) Crop pollen wild relative (CPW) CPC and CPW v. CSV and CSF Crop seed feral (CSF) Crop seed volunteer (CSV) Petti et al (25).

4 Crop seed-to-volunteer mediated gene flow Survey of 11 farms. Seed loss up to.25 tonnes/hectare* Minimise impact of seed loss? Negate potential for secondary dormancy Untouched for minimum of 8 weeks / HT / 2-3 weeks / HT* *Flanagan et al. 28 and Poster 2.3

5 Research strategy? Identify mgmt practises to minimise GM content in non-gm fields below the.9% threshold Computer-based modelling Field-based experiments Flanagan et al. - Modelling gene flow at a landscape level for GMHT oilseed rape - GeneSys (Colbach et al. 21) - Relative impact of cropping systems on temporal and spatial gene flow - Model life cycle of oilseed rape adults and volunteers across landscape

6 Landscape? Bridgetown, Co. Wexford fields - 58 non-cultivated areas At 2,ft (1:4,)

7 Research strategy? Task 1*: Consequence of growing GMHT oilseed rape (OSR) with existing management regime = worst case scenario Task 2*: Crop regime modifications to facilitate coexistence Economic impact? Scenario Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 1 GM OSR/ non-gm OSR WW WW WW 2 GM OSR/ non-gm OSR WW SB SB Initial crop (year 1) randomly assigned to each field 1% fields ploughed GM trait - dominant transgene to glyphosate resistance Scenarios simulated for 12 years of cultivation 1% of fields not cultivated - simulated as set asides = FALLOW. Regional proportion of GM fields: 5%, 15% or 3% *Mullins et al (28)

8 % of fields exceeding impurity thresholds for non-gm OSR crops %of field withharvest pollution>,9% 1 Scenario 1 OSR / WW / WW / WW 5% GM OSR cultivation Year % o f fi e ld w i th h a rve st p ol l utio n >,9 % % of fiel d w ith h arv es t pol lu tio n >,9% 1 15% GM OSR cultivation Year % GM OSR cultivation Year

9 % of fields exceeding impurity thresholds for non-gm OSR crops 1 5% GM OSR cultivation 9 8 Scenario 2 OSR / WW / SB / SB Year % GM OSR cultivation Year % GM OSR cultivation Year

10 GM adult (sown plants + volunteers) population dynamics in fields with GM OSR on years 1, 5 and 9 1 Scenario 1 (OSR / WW / WW / WW) GMAdults/m² GMPLOUGH 3WWPLOUGH 5GMPLOUGH 7WWPLOUGH 9GMPLOUGH 11 WWPLOUGH Year - Crop 1 Scenario 2 (OSR / WW / SB / SB ) GM Adults/m² GMPLOUGH 3SBPLOUGH 5GMPLOUGH 7SBPLOUGH Year - Crop 9GMPLOUGH 11 SBPLOUGH

11 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 1 (OSR/WW/WW/WW) Year 4 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

12 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 1 (OSR/WW/WW/WW) Year 5 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

13 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 1 (OSR/WW/WW/WW) Year 6 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

14 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 1 (OSR/WW/WW/WW) Year 7 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

15 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 1 (OSR/WW/WW/WW) Year 8 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

16 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 1 (OSR/WW/WW/WW) Year 9 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

17 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 1 (OSR/WW/WW/WW) Year 1 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

18 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 1 (OSR/WW/WW/WW) Year 11 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

19 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 1 (OSR/WW/WW/WW) Year 12 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

20 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 2 (OSR/WW/SB/SB) Year 4 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

21 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 2 (OSR/WW/SB/SB) Year 5 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

22 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 2 (OSR/WW/SB/SB) Year 6 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

23 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 2 (OSR/WW/SB/SB) Year 7 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

24 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 2 (OSR/WW/SB/SB) Year 8 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

25 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 2 (OSR/WW/SB/SB) Year 9 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

26 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 2 (OSR/WW/SB/SB) Year 1 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

27 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 2 (OSR/WW/SB/SB) Year 11 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

28 Simulated dispersal of GM volunteers/adult plants from 5 GM cultivated fields Scenario 2 (OSR/WW/SB/SB) Year 12 vols/m2 <.1 <.1 <1 < 1 >1 vols

29 Coexistence for GM and non-gm oilseed rape Continuous winter wheat in rotation will negate coexistence Inclusion of spring crop has potential to achieve coexistence Under current coexistence regulations, GM oilseed rape will not suit all farmers small cohort will adopt = GM zones Care required to minimise seed escape into soil bank Adoption of GM technology at the farm level Assess the factors that will influence Irish farmers in adopting GM technology Likely early adopters are farmers with large acreage Have formal education Having an off-farm job did not positively influence decision to adopt Keelan et al*

30 Moving away from coexistence. Outcome of crop pollen-to-wild relative gene flow?? Brassica napus Brassica rapa

31 B. napus Hybrid Hybrid B. rapa

32 Outcome of crop pollen-to-wild relative gene flow?? Potential exists for gene transfer but.so what?? What is the consequence for the environment?? GMHT v. HT oilseed rape (imidazolinone tolerance) IMI tolerance conferred via EMS mutagenesis PM1 (C genome) and PM2 (A genome) SNP mutations IMI tolerant oilseed rape (63CL Clearfield Canola)

33 Inheritance of PM2 SNP mutation in B. napus x. B.rapa hybrids B.rapa IMI B. napus Hybrids NTC

34 Release of IMI winter oilseed rape will see emergence of B. rapa IMI+ populations Under current EU legislation that s okay?!? B. rapa gly+ populations as a result of gene transfer from GM Legislating the process not the product Must be re-examined

35 Are Irish farmers opposed to growing GM crops? > 6% of Irish farmers would consider GM (Hogg et al 2) Survey of potato growers in 27: Would you grow blight resistant GM potato if it increased your gross margin? 6 % v. 33% Would you grow blight resistant GM potato if it did not increase your gross margin BUT did reduce the number of sprays you had to apply? 61 % v. 34% Would you grow GM potato that has been designed for non-food purposes (e.g. production of industrial starch or the synthesis of pharma ceuticals)? 6 % v. 37% Do you want to learn more about GM potato? 86 % v. see: 14%

36 Assessing suitability of GM LBR potato for Ireland Up to 198 /ha gross margin increase* Increased convenience factor Control *Flannery et al (25) RB 13

37 Blight tolerance in potato Response of RB lines to P. infestans F1 (7 dpi) Desiree control RB 13

38 Assessing suitability of GM LBR potato for Ireland Des + inf RB 13 + inf Have to examine the durability of RB against the ability of P. infestans to rapidly evolve against R genes Establishing SOP for coexistence of GM and non-gm potato All peer-reviewed research available at

39 Acknowledgements Paul Flanagan (Oak Park) Carlo Petti (Oak Park) Reamonn Feally (Spatial Analysis Unit) Fiona Thorne (RERC) Sinead Phelan (Oak Park) Yann Tricault Nathalie Colbach Conor Meade