Japan Pharma Outlook 2027

Transcription

1 Japan Pharma Outlook 2027 Strategizing Growth in an Evolving Industry Landscape June 2018

2 Zara Fulton Company Analyst Pharma Intelligence Informa Ian Haydock Editor-in-Chief (Asia Pacific) Pharma Insights Informa Edward Thomason Company Analyst Pharma Intelligence Informa 2

3 PharmaVitae s Japan Pharma Peerset 3

4 Japan Pharma: Global Revenue Growth Outlook, [JPN] Japan Pharma will add $6.5bn out to 2027 [JPN], generating $69.5bn in 2027 [JPN] Low CAGR of 1.0% is indicative of the domestic pressures facing Japan Pharma Healthy launch portfolio will offset heavy core and expiry portfolio Launch portfolio will add $11.4bn over [JPN] Core and expiry portfolio will lose $4.8bn over [JPN] 4

5 Japan Pharma Challenges: Aging and Declining Japanese Population Source: United Nations, 2017; World Health Organization,

6 Japan Pharma Opportunities: Government Incentives The Stick Approach Government Policies to Control Healthcare Spending Regular Government Pricing Revisions May occur annually from 2020 [JPN] Set to increase the dichotomy between established and more innovative companies Government Facilitated Generics Growth Generic volume domestic market share: Rose from 26% to 66% over [JPN] Goal of 80% by 2020 [JPN] 6

7 Japan Pharma Opportunities: Government Incentives The Carrot Approach Government Policies to Encourage Japan-Based Innovation Pricing Premiums* Reform Cost Effectiveness Assessment Company Rankings *Based on Health Technology Assessment (HTA) criteria 7

8 Challenges and Opportunities: Impact of Government Mechanisms More Regular Pricing Revisions Stricter HTA Requirements Higher Innovation Standards Will these mechanisms designed to encourage innovation while saving healthcare costs lead to higher R&D productivity and revenue growth? 8

9 Strategies for Global Growth: Navigating Domestic Headwinds and Measures Rationalization Consolidation Reinvention Cost-saving measures, including job cuts Divestitures of non-core or longerlisted products Greater economies of scale Sustain profitability Boost R&D productivity Collaborations Sharpened focus on: Oncology and central nervous system US and emerging markets R&D position in regenerative medicine 9

10 Strategies for Global Growth: More Big M&A for Japan Pharma? 10

11 Strategies for Global Growth: Takeda/Shire,

12 Strategies for Global Growth: Takeda/Shire US 5EU Japan RoW Regional Overview, 2027 $8,180m $4,728m $5,537m $14,836m 12

13 Strategies for Global Growth: Astellas/Daiichi Sankyo,

14 Strategies for Global Growth: Astellas/Daiichi Sankyo US 5EU Japan RoW Regional Overview, 2027 $4,919m $3,131m $2,657m $7,298m 14

15 Strategies for Global Growth: Otsuka/Eisai,

16 Strategies for Global Growth: Otsuka/Eisai US 5EU Japan RoW Regional Overview, 2027 $4,989m $1,206m $3,398m $6,809m 16

17 Japan Pharma: Global Revenue Growth Outlook, [JPN] ($m) Japan Pharma will add $5.5bn out to 2022 [JPN] Source: Datamonitor Healthcare; 17

18 Japan Pharma: Global Revenue Growth Outlook, [JPN] ($m) Japan Pharma will add $1bn out to 2027 [JPN] 18

19 Japan Pharma: Therapy Area Dynamics Global Growth Central Nervous System Oncology Cardiovascular 19

20 Japan Pharma: Therapy Area Dynamics, [JPN] ($m) Growth will be fueled by oncology and central nervous system (CNS) indications Oncology market will grow by $5.4bn to reach $17.0bn in 2027 [JPN] at a 3.9% CAGR CNS market will grow by $3.6bn to reach $14.1bn in 2027 [JPN] at a 3.0% CAGR Cardiovascular will show the most decline, losing $1.9bn at a CAGR of -2.7% 20

21 Japan Pharma: Regional Dynamics, [JPN] Regional contributions to Japan Pharma revenue are set to converge Shrinking Japanese market China and South Korea markets hold significant potential through tripartite cooperation agreement 21

22 Japan Pharma: Lifecycle Analysis Core Patented products that neither launch nor expire between [JPN] Expiry Patented products expiring between [JPN] Launch Patented products launching between [JPN] Launch products set to add $11.4bn over the forecast period Core products set to lose $2bn in value Expiry products revenues will erode by $2.8bn between [JPN] 22

23 Japan Pharma: Opportunities in China China s FDA Reforms New SMAR and MISA Rare Disease List & Allowance of Foreign Data Stronger IP Protection trilateral cooperation (Japan/Korea/China) More 23

24 Japan Pharma: Any Aces Up Japan Pharma s Sleeve? Regenerative medicine Early stage clinical development not fully reflected in current forecasts Nobel prize for Physiology or Medicine awarded to Professor Shinya Yamanaka who discovered ips cells Streamlined regulatory pathway facilitated by the MHLW offers potential first to market global advantage 24

25 Questions? Zara Fulton Company Analyst Pharma Intelligence Ian Haydock Editor-in-Chief (Asia Pacific) Pharma Insights Edward Thomason Company Analyst Pharma Intelligence 25