Biological Risks Future Trends Conveying the Concept of Risk. Beijing 2 November Terence Taylor

Transcription

1 Biological Risks Future Trends Conveying the Concept of Risk Beijing 2 November 2010 Terence Taylor

2 Life Sciences -The Challenge Advances in life sciences offer huge promise in medicine, nutrition and industry But biotechnology can also harm humanity & the environment, creating risks How to safeguard and promote advances in biotechnology while addressing the risks 2 November 2010 Biological Risk Future Trends 2

3 The Full Spectrum of Biological Risk Naturally Occurring Pandemic Reemerging Infectious Diseases Unintended Outcomes of Research Laboratory Accidents Lack of Awareness Policy Choices Crime & Counterfeit Drugs Sabotage BW Terrorism State Natural Accidental Intentional 2 November 2010 Biological Risk Future Trends 3

4 Confronting the Risks A Pathogen is a Pathogen is a Pathogen Whether it comes from nature, accident or terrorism Responses have to transcend bureaucratic boundaries 2 November 2010 Biological Risks - Future Trends 4

5 Confronting the Risks: Element Pathogens Know No Boundaries Effective response requires regional & international coordination & cooperation 2 November 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 5

6 Pace of Advances - Genomics Moore s Law computing power doubles every 18 months Carlson s Law Starting in 2002 it took two years for a team to synthesize the polio virus In 2005 it took two weeks for a team to synthesize a virus of comparable length. Cost reducing at about the same rate 2 November 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 6

7 Predicting Breakthroughs US National Academies Study of Breakthrough Technologies 1937 No nuclear energy No antibiotics No jet aircraft No rocketry No transistors and no computers 2 November 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 7

8 Carlson s Law 2 November 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 8

9 Cost of Advances Genomics 1 2 November 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 9

10 Cost of Advances Genomics -2 First HGS $3 bn over 13 Years Current cost circa $5,000 per human genome Accepted breakthrough level $1,000 per human genome Less than 12 complete human genomes have been sequenced up to 31 March November 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 10

11 Genomics 1967 Kornberg copied the DNA of PhiX174 virus 2003 made with DNA from a sequence on a computer rather than a copy made by an enzyme 2008 Possible to synthesize a small bacterial chromosome 20 x bigger 2 November 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 11

12 Synthetic Genomics Venter team able to activate an organism in a cell (1.08 million base pair genome of myco plasma mycoides) Did not create life or create a chromosome from scratch Using only digitized information they synthesized a modified version of M. mycoides - but self-replicating 2 November 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 12

13 Drivers Lessons from the last decade of the last century Domestication of technology Commercial demand Human/animal/plant diseases Defence? Technological surprise 6 February 2010 Biological Risk 13

14 Confronting the risks There are a range of actions which are: Common across the risk spectrum Specific to accidental risks Specific to intentional risks 2 November 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 14

15 Actions Common to the Whole Spectrum Limit the Spread Detection Preparedness and Rapid Response Diagnostics Vaccines Containment Treatment 2 November 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 15

16 Common actions Preparedness and Resilience Fortune favours the prepared Public Health & Disease Research National Hospital Reporting Cross-Border Surveillance Networks Information Sharing International Collaboration 2 November 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 16

17 Actions vs Unintended Consequences Reduce the Potential for Accidents Lab Design SOPs Training Research Reviews 2 November 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 17

18 Actions versus Intentional Misuse Reduce Opportunities Ethics Codes Regulation Personnel Screening Lab Security Awareness and Resilience 2 November 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 18

19 Compartmentalisation Naturally Occurring Pandemic Reemerging Infectious Diseases Unintended Consequences of Research Laboratory Accidents Lack of Awareness Policy Choices Crime & Counterfeit Drugs Sabotage Biowarfare Terrorism State BW 2 November 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 19

20 Summary Measures need to take account of an assessment of full spectrum of risks An integrated strategy of countermeasures essential national and international Countermeasures need to be rapidly adaptable Rapid advances in biotechnology a vital defence N.B. detection and diagnostics 2 November 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 20

21 Terence Taylor President International Council for the Life Sciences 13 October November 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 19

22 ICLS Mission To help ensure global public health, safety and security by safeguarding the opportunities offered by advances in the life sciences and their application through the promotion of best practices, standards and codes of conduct 13 October 2010 Biological Risks Future Trends 22