Leveraging Hype to Predict Adoption Cycle of Emerging Technologies

Transcription

1 Leveraging Hype to Predict Adoption Cycle of Emerging Technologies By Theo Stratopoulos University of Waterloo (CS - Big Data Seminar) November

2 Background - Technology Adoption Technology adoption cycle (Rogers)

3 Background - Hype Gartner Hype Cycle (Technology life cycle)

4 Objective Develop a framework for predicting diffusion, specifically the temporal adoption rate, of an emerging technology by leveraging the hype that tends to be created with the introduction of a new technology.

5 Motivation Number of emerging technologies 236 from Implications for stakeholders Adopting firms - duration of competitive advantage Suppliers/vendors and startups - market maturity Investors and venture capitalists - timing of investments Consultants, employees, talent acquisition.

6 Sources/proxies for Hype General public or non-interest specific stakeholders e.g., Web search index (Google trends); magazine and newspaper articles (LexisNexis), academic articles (Google Scholar) Interest specific stakeholders, e.g., Published books in business and economics as well as technical (WorldCat); Startups over time (Crunchbase); Patents filed (US Patent Office); rounds and amount of investments/venture capital directed towards startups (Crunchbase); Firms implementing (News releases)

7 From Hype to Adoption Cycle - Propositions Hype based on non-interest specific stakeholders From commencement to peak of hype of the emerging technology, we have approximately 1 s.d in adoption cycle. When adoption is related to external events - e.g., tech or market bubble - commencement to peak of hype reflects 2 s.d. Hype based on interest specific stakeholders From commencement to peak of hype of the emerging technology, we have approximately 2 s.d in adoption cycle.

8 Implementation: Cloud Computing

9 Cloud Computing: Google Trends & LexisNexis

10 Cloud Computing: Book Titles

11 Predictions: Cloud Computing Years Adopters Cumulative Adoption Competitive Implications Expected Duration Innovators 2.50% Competitive advantage ~ 12 years Early Adopters 16% Competitive advantage ~ 8 years Early Majority 50% Competitive advantage ~ 4 years Late Majority 84% Parity NA Laggards 100% Parity NA

12 The Perfect Storm of Emerging Technologies 1. Analytics 2. Big Data 3. Given: Cloud Computing) Internet of Things Given: RFID 4. Blockchain 5. Machine/Deep Learning

13 From Analytics to Big Data Analytics While the data analytics hype has peaked the big data hype is still growing.

14 Big Data and Internet of Things (IoT) When the IoT reaches mainstream adoption, Big Data will likely grow by several orders of magnitude

15 Big Data and Blockchain Blockchain when combined IoT and smart contracts will generate even more data

16 Big Data and Machine Learning Dealing with the avalanche of data will motivate the development and adoption of machine learning.

17 Prepare to ride the perfect storm

18 It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future Yogi Berra

19 Predictions: Blockchain Gartner Hype Cycle Google Trends Using Book Titles to Compare ERP and Blockchain Startups Rounds of Funding

20 Gartner Hype Cycle: Blockchain is at the Peak

21 Hype in Google Searches Summer 2016 Fall 2013 Winter 2014 Spring 2013 Worldwide Google Search Interest in Blockchain. Have we reached the top yet?

22 De Javu Compare blockchain statement with ERP statement Anderson et al. (2003): In the late 1990s companies treated the ERP implementation as an opportunity to deal with Y2K and replace outdated IT systems. Wild et al Financial Times : For big banks, scrambling to modernise their often outdated IT systems in the face of pressure from regulators, digital challengers and cyber criminals, blockchain represents an opportunity to rethink much of what they do.

23 ERP: Book Count

24 Blockchain: Book Count

25 Startups count (new) Cryptocurrency Cryptocurrency & Blockchain Blockchain

26 Funding Rounds for Cryptocurrency Startups Seed Series A Series B

27 Funding Rounds for Crypto & Blockchain Start s Seed Series A Series B

28 Funding Rounds for Blockchain Startups Seed Series A Series B

29 Predictions: Big Data Google Trends Using Book Titles

30 Big Data: Google Trends

31 Big Data: Book Titles in WorldCat

32 Limitations... In that Empire, the Art of Cartography attained such Perfection that... the Cartographers Guilds struck a Map of the Empire whose size was that of the Empire, and which coincided point for point with it. The following Generations, who were not so fond of the Study of Cartography as their Forebears had been, saw that that vast map was Useless, and not without some Pitilessness was it, that they delivered it up to the Inclemencies of Sun and Winters. In the Deserts of the West, still today, there are Tattered Ruins of that Map, (Borges 1972)