CIO Update: The Microsoft Application Platform and J2EE

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1 IGG Y. Natis Article 7 January 2004 CIO Update: The Microsoft Application Platform and J2EE Although the Java 2 Enterprise Edition (J2EE) application server market is mature and the Microsoft application platform is more technically sound, changes and risks will remain part of the application platform for enterprises in 2004 and beyond. Although the Java 2 Enterprise Edition (J2EE) application server market is mature and the Microsoft application platform is more technically sound, changes and risks will remain part of the application platform landscape for enterprises in 2004 and beyond. Breaking Away from Sun s Control The tension between Microsoft and Java vendors in the application platform space will continue to influence the strategies of vendors and customers in Microsoft is fighting the technology battle by continuously and relentlessly re-engineering its platform technology while making notable technical progress. Java vendors are carrying forward their enterprise computing credibility by extending their Java platforms beyond the boundaries of the J2EE standard. They are breaking away from Sun Microsystems control and reversing the recent trend toward application platform portability. Enterprises are in the middle of this long-term competition and most have elected not to choose sides. Instead, they are focusing on integrating their already-heterogeneous platform environments, including J2EE, Microsoft, mainframe CICS and other application platforms. Prediction Indigo will move Microsoft onto the middleware industry s leading edge Indigo is Microsoft s planned next-generation communication middleware for Windows environments. It will play a fundamental role in the architecture of the next-generation Microsoft application platform. Indigo will be delivered with Windows Longhorn, as well as for Windows XP and Windows Server 2003, in 2006 (0.4 probability) or 2007(0.8 probability). It will be integrated with the next version of Windows Server less than two years after that (0.8 probability). Nevertheless, the early announcement of Indigo and its staged release, starting in 2006 or 2007, will have an increasing impact on the software industry from now through Gartner Entire contents 2004 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

2 Indigo is a messaging-based middleware, an enterprise service bus that is intended to underlie most system software above the core operating-system level. Microsoft s future applications will be partly enabled by this messaging intersystem communications platform whether they are custom-built applications, independent software vendor application packages or middleware tools (that is, portal products, application servers, integration suites or application platform suites). For most software scenarios, this transformation will give Microsoft s platform greater and more consistent manageability, scalability, availability and agility, because of the superior characteristics of messaging middleware over the remote procedure call middleware. Having announced Indigo three years ahead of delivery, Microsoft will influence the industry to follow its messaging middleware direction. When Microsoft is ready with its product, most key competitors will also deliver similar platforms. Strategic Planning Assumptions: By 2008, messaging will become industry state of the art technology for core intersystem communications middleware (0.7 probability). By 2008, Microsoft will offer an industry-state-of-the-art distributed application platform for a wide selection of enterprise application scenarios (0.7 probability). Begin to invest in messaging middleware. Consider event-driven architecture as a complement to service-oriented architecture. Also consider the discontinuities that will likely occur through 2010 as Microsoft updates its middleware technology stack. Give preference to middleware, tools and applications that now, or plan to, support events and the messaging intersystem communications model. Prediction The all you need is great software doctrine will continue to keep Microsoft on the wrong side of the enterprise chasm Microsoft application platform technology is better than ever. Gartner believes that it can technically support the scalability demands of up to 70 percent of business software projects. However, driven by its traditional frustration with a market that underestimates its technical capabilities, Microsoft continues to concentrate nearly all of its effort in the mission-critical enterprise computing market on proving its technical excellence. Consumed by this now-less-relevant goal, Microsoft is missing its real and immediate challenge, which is to be accepted as a dependable business player in high-end, high-stakes, mission-critical enterprise projects. Microsoft must improve how it does the following: Supports its customers long-term technology projects Provides ongoing account management and broad business-style support for its larger accounts

3 Ensures continuity of its products and specifications Maintains long-term policies with regard to enterprise licensing and pricing, terms and conditions Although Microsoft has made some progress in this direction in recent months, it has not yet crossed the chasm from a technology enthusiast to a conservatively reliable enterprise player. The early introduction of Indigo and the WinFX programming model for Longhorn demonstrates the continuing problems that Microsoft will likely experience in mission-critical enterprises. Having announced the discontinuous next release of its application platform, Microsoft has signaled to its enterprise prospects that their planned applications and projects will become legacy in the next three to five years. In the next five to eight years, the applications will likely have to be rewritten to keep up with then-current innovation. Some enterprises will choose to ignore the Longhorn announcements as irrelevant to their immediate decisions, because the real impact of Longhorn is too far out in the future to be predictable. More risk-averse enterprise projects will choose to avoid the costs and risks of frequent Microsoft-imposed transitions, and will avoid mission-critical Microsoft application platform deployments. Strategic Planning Assumption: Through year-end 2007, more than 70 percent of mission-critical application projects will avoid using the Microsoft application platform, despite evidence of its technical credibility (0.7 probability). If you plan to develop Microsoft-application-platform-based business applications, consider the costs to migrate the applications from the.net platform to the Indigo-based Longhorn platform. Applications that continue to be used beyond 2010 will likely not be able to avoid transition costs. Considering that the messaging model is fundamental to the next generation of the Microsoft application platform, enterprises should consider it now, where applicable. Prediction Java-based application platform vendors will look beyond the certified J2EE Vendors like standards when they must enter a new market because supporting standards gives them the guise of legitimacy in the new environment. In contrast, market-leading vendors tend not to like standards because standards make their products less unique and more like a commodity with subsequent low pricing, low margins and higher risk because of the low cost of entry for competitors. In a mature market (for example, the relational database management system area), vendors typically evolve their products beyond the standards to achieve differentiation and account control. In the process, they enhance their offerings, increase prices and lock their customers more tightly into their technology platform. The enterprise application server market is mature: Two vendors IBM and BEA Systems control more than 70 percent of revenue. The recent joint announcement by IBM and BEA of a set of

4 new specifications to extend J2EE ahead of its Sun-controlled standards process is an example of those vendors flexing their muscles to take greater control of the destiny of their successful platform products. J2EE vendors will continue to support J2EE-certified application programming interfaces (APIs), but they increasingly will add nonstandard enrichment APIs to their J2EE-based products. This process will likely continue through 2008, resulting in vendor lock-in for enterprises. Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2008, more than 40 percent of APIs in leading J2EE-based enterprise application servers will be proprietary (0.7 probability). If you use application server technology, understand that despite vendors continuing broad endorsement of J2EE and Web services standards, you will have to continue relying on vendors differentiated vision and ability to execute. Most applications that are deployed on a particular application platform will remain deployed on that platform for their useful lives. Select your application platform providers carefully and expect a long-term relationship. Bottom Line The Microsoft application platform will undergo dramatic changes in the next five years, and Java application platforms will move beyond the J2EE standard programming model. Most enterprises should expect to be locked into their application platform vendors technologies, regardless of their architecture. Through 2008, however, J2EE-based platforms will likely be more predictable and consistent in their evolution. Written by Edward Younker, Research Products Analytical source: Yefim Natis, Gartner Research For related Inside Gartner articles, see: CIO Update: Enterprise Java Lock-in Will Increase Through 2006, (IGG ) CIO Update: The Outlook for Microsoft Achieving Mission-Critical Capability, (IGG )

5 CIO Update: A Look at What s Ahead in Servers for Transaction Processing, (IGG ) CIO Update: How Java and.net Compare and Will Evolve, (IGG ) CIO Alert: What You Should Know About IBM s Application Development Strategy, (IGG ) CIO Update: What You Should Know About the Status of.net, (IGG )