HAPS: A Service Provider s Perspective

Transcription

1 HAPS: A Service Provider s Perspective Jon Wakeling Strategic Market Analysis Unit Office of the BT Group CTO Agenda Background What HAPS proponents offer What service providers really want What shapes a service provider s requirements Conclusions

2 Background HAPS proponents offer. Any application you like: Broadband access Direct end-user access for consumers and businesses Backhaul from WiFi and WiMax hot spots Mobility Direct to handsets: 2G, 3G, 4G, WiFi, WiMax Navigation and location-based services Backhaul from remote base-stations Broadcast Direct to home DTV, HDTV, Interactive-TV Mobile audio, video, telematics data and interactive services

3 .but they don t have An operational flight platform A validated payload design User terminals Spectrum A license to operate A back office solution A business plan. What service providers really want Not to invest! The ability to contract for capacity Decoupled from system filing and clearances Incumbent's want a capability that s compatible with their portfolio and strategy Extend reach, fill gaps Increase network capacity Supports existing services Compatible with internal processes and systems New entrants want an edge Data rates, price, footprint, flexibility Compatibility not an issue But longevity not compulsory All are wary of market evolution

4 Example: the broadband market is still evolving Typical UK broadband speeds and pricing evolution 8Mbps now available for around 25/month Mbps is coming. Speeds are increasing, prices are decreasing the trend will continue. This squeezes the network operator margins and the cash available for network investment and profitability. Pricing Evolution Basic Premium Flat-rate Flat-rate Time-based Midband flat-rate Volume-based QoS-based Time-based Volume-based

5 Coverage requirements, e.g. VDSL coverage in 2011 Large number of un served customers that have a higher level of Affluence (potential disposable income) Large number of unserved customers that are in a lower Affluence group (less disposable income) Highest Lowest Different Different technologies technologies have have different different footprints footprints that that change change over over time time Take-up Take-up will will not not be be uniform uniform and and will will also also vary vary significantly significantly with with application application A business model template exists: satellite Satellite systems and services operate a business model that provides flexibility However, satellite systems followed the one size fits all model Transparent layer 1 repeater Changes have been in power, capacity and coverage efficiency BUT, the technology has not really changed in 30 years HAPS are yet to make a business model or technology choice ITU National Regulator Satellite Operator Service Provider End-User Value chain element Non-value chain element Satellite Supplier Launch Supplier Equipment Supplier

6 New business model options Capacity Ownership Model xdsl Local Loop Unbundling (LLU) equivalent model HAPS capacity broken down by transponder, channel or beam Component is owned by the downstream service provider Transport Model Bandwidth purchase equivalent model Downstream service provider buys and manages bandwidth Access Model Service purchase equivalent model Downstream service provider buys managed services from the HAPS operator The technology evolution problem The 2002 Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies HAPS need to exploit a wireless technology Wireless technologies are evolving faster all the time ( Hype Cycle data from Gartner) The 2005 Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies Wireless LANs/ WAP/ Wireless Web HAPS have a problem with wireless technology compatibility

7 HAPS Hype Cycle ? 20XX? Conclusion Great concept, but stuck on the Hype Cycle Need to focus on what works for a given HAPS design, rather than promising anything you want Coverage flexibility within footprint: markets move Match capability to terrestrial equivalent Incumbents and new entrants need continuity Complement, don t compete An appropriate business model must be applied Look at LLU and other models Flexibility is key: resilience to market changes

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