Optimization in support of Missile Defense Investment Decisions 2007 ISPA-SCEA

Transcription

1 Optimization in support of Missile Defense Investment Decisions 2007 ISPA-SCEA SCEA Conference and Workshop Frontier Technology Inc Colonel Glenn Hwy. Dayton, Ohio June, 2007

2 Research Objectives Develop a distributed Investment Analysis System for MDA Develop a methodology and tool set, integrating key elements of FTI and MDA/DOBI methods and tools as appropriate Develop a resource optimization capability Demonstrate the benefits of the methodology and tools in a realistic problem environment Develop / deliver final prototype capability Commercialize software tools 2

3 FTI Tools Tailored for MDA Investment Analysis Technology/System Investment Trade-Space Investment/System Portfolio Optimization Utility/Performance Assessment Results Life Cycle Cost Analysis Results Risk Assessment Results Schedule Insight 3

4 MDA Investment Analysis Process Define the Study Alternatives Develop the Analytical Structure Identify the Critical TOG like Measures Construct the Decision Structure Establish Weighting Functions for each Measure Establish Definitions for Scoring I-CAIV I-CAIV I-CAIV Includes possible opportunities for complementary enhancements using FTI tools/methods Gather the Data Cost the Alternatives ICE Obtain Effectiveness Data for Each Alternative Assemble SMEs for Qualitative Measures Formal Groupware Scoring for each Alternative I-CAIV Do the Analysis Assess the Alternatives Calculate the Utility of each Alternative including the Baseline Impact on Schedule ROI Utility & Drivers Importance of Cost Sensitivity Sensitivity Sensitivity I-CAIV ROS ICE I-CAIV Display the Results I-CAIV ROS ICE Complementary interface with FTI Tools 4

5 ICE Cost Analysis Process Existing FTI Analysis Tools ICE Cost Analysis Process System Concept Supports: Life Cycle Cost O&S Savings Return-on-investment Business Case Analysis CAIV Decision Space CAIV Decision Trade Space Work Breakdown Structure Cost Model Knowledge Bases Define platform & system components Subject Matter Expert Input Acquisition Cost Models ICE Graphical User Interface Identify development & production characteristics or processes DoD Data Systems (AFTOC, VAMOSC, OSMIS, etc.) FTI Calculators Define operations & support Potential Removals LCC Output Savings Reports ROI Business Case O&S Cost Models Ops & Support Databases Execute models Excel Transfer Interface Customer Models or Data 5

6 I-CAIV Tool and Evaluation Process Existing FTI Analysis Tools Remote stakeholders Decision stakeholders CAIV Decision Trade Space I-CAIV Tool Decision Criteria (requirements) prioritization Criteria (Capabilities - Requirements) Measures of Effectiveness Optional phase Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) prioritization Cost data Decision Alternatives scoring and prioritization Risk data Schedule data Test or M&S data Utility Function Generator System or design options 6

7 CAIV Decision Trade Space Inputs Alternative Performance Assessments (MDA / DE and/or the Elements) Benefit MDA Interactive Decision Space Cost Alternative Alternative Cost Cost Estimates Estimates (MDA / DOBE and/or (MDA / the PIE Elements) and/or the Elements) MDA / DE, DO & the Elements MDA / DO & DE Alternative Alternative Risk Risk Assessments Assessments Alternative Alternative Schedule Schedule Assessments Assessments (MDA / SEY DE) (MDA / SEY and/or NTY) and/or NTY) Revised Risk Schedule (MDA / PIA) DO) (MDA / PIA) 7

8 Resource Optimization System Budget Schedule Priorities Performance Synergies Constraints Optimization Objectives PROGRAM INSIGHT Alternatives System Costs Benefits Scores Resource Optimization System ROS Data Files Run Status Output Files ASIIS Optimization Model GAMS CPLEX Total Spending - Excursions Optimized Capability Total Spending by Alternative Optimized Capability by Criteria Schedule for Expenditures 8

9 Refined Investment Analysis Process Performance Data System Concept Decision Stakeholders (Test Data, M&S, Etc) System Architectures Define System Components Scoring and Prioritization System Cost Estimates Technology/System Investment Trade Space Threat Prioritization (Probability of Occurrence) ICE Validation of System Cost Estimates Risk Assessment Process Select Risk Assessment Tool Conduct Risk Assessment Schedule Assessment Process Investment/System Portfolio Optimization

10 Criterion Weights for ROS (Input from I-CAIV) 10

11 Utility Scores for ROS (Input from I-CAIV) 11

12 Summary I-CAIV Results for ROS 12

13 Summary I-CAIV Results for ROS 13

14 Input Data for ROS - Total System Costs 14

15 Input Data for ROS Schedule for each System 15

16 ROS Inputs - Criterion Weights 16

17 ROS Input - Element / Component Scores 17

18 Optimization Output - Cost Result Detail 18

19 Optimization Output - Schedule Results 19

20 Optimization Output - Performance Results 20

21 Optimization Sensitivity 21

22 Sensitivity Results 22

23 Total Cost Comparison 23

24 Summary Robust Investment Analysis capability including optimization now available for MDA use Methodology successfully used in internal studies as a proof-of-concept ROS Uses a proven military model for capital investments and force planning Powerful interface for easy data entry and management, and flexible reports Evaluates task priorities, system capability, costs, and schedule parameters Methodology and Toolset help provide strong Program Justification 24