2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.

Transcription

1

2 Глобальные технологические тренды The 2018 To 2019 Global Tech Market Outlook Сергей Македонский Региональный директор, CIS&Baltics «Цифровой город Москва итоги 2017года и образ будущего» 13 марта 2018 г.

3 Agenda Age of the Customer and Market Imperatives Global tech spending will increase at a faster 5% pace in 2018, but with risks rising in US, China, and India are leading growth; Europe and Japan also participating in the growth. BT priorities are fueling tech market demand, but back-office technology spending is also growing. Cloud is reshaping tech markets, especially in software and services, but also in hardware risks stem from policies in the US, the UK, and China. 3

4 Empowered customers are changing the way companies compete and win 4

5 Empowered customers have given rise to a new era Age of manufacturing Mass manufacturing makes industrial powerhouses successful Ford Boeing GE RCA Age of distribution Global connections and transportation systems make distribution key Wal-Mart Toyota P&G UPS Age of information Connected PCs and supply chains mean those that control information flow dominate Amazon Google Comcast Capital One Age of the customer Empowered buyers demand a new level of customer obsession Macy s Salesforce.com USAA Amazon 5

6 Forrester identified 5 market imperatives, modern organizations should master in order to win Differentiate with digital Build a customer insights driven organization Excel at customerobsessed marketing Drive revenue with great customer experience Maximize the business value of technology The age of the customer 2017 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED. 6

7 The Age of the Customer requirements are common to every industry Understand and anticipate your customers. Win on the battleground of customer experience. Differentiate on business technology. 7

8 In this new era we focus on 12 roles Customers Marketing & Strategy CMO B2B Marketing B2C Marketing Customer Experience Customer Insights ebusiness & Channel Strategy Technology Management CIO Enterprise Architecture Security & Risk Application Development & Delivery BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY AGENDA Sourcing & Vendor Management Infrastructure & Operations INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AGENDA 8

9 Three sets of five technologies stand out 9

10 Emerging tech will unleash massive change 10

11 Why CIOs should care about tech market trends To understand how much and where other firms are spending on technology and how that spending is shifting over time To determine where they ought to be investing more to get ahead of or keep up with competition To improve the prioritization of investments in new workloads where technology can be transformational for the business To be able to negotiate with vendors better by understanding how well they are or aren t doing 11

12 How our global forecasts have evolved WE HAVE RAISED OUR 2018 TECH MARKET OUTLOOK DUE TO BETTER ECONOMIC GROWTH, BUT ARE CAUTIOUS ABOUT THE 2019 OUTLOOK DUE TO GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES Forrester s forecasts for global tech market growth in US dollars 12

13 US$ billions Global tech market by product in US$, 2014 to % -4.2% 6.1% 2.4% 4.3% $3,360 $3,212 $2,959 $2,835 $2,905 $3,029 13

14 US dollar growth rates in global tech market by product SOFTWARE AND CONSULTING SERVICES LEAD THE MARKET Global in US$ (% change) * 2018* 2019* Computer equipment -7.5% -2.0% 3.8% 5.6% 4.1% Communications equipment -3.5% -1.9% 3.1% 5.5% 2.9% Software -2.2% 4.9% 5.1% 8.3% 7.4% Tech consulting and systems integration services Tech outsourcing and hardware maintenance -2.1% 3.9% 4.5% 6.4% 4.7% -5.9% 5.0% 6.3% 6.6% 5.7% Telecommunications services -5.0% 1.8% 2.4% 3.6% 1.7% Total tech purchases -4.2% 2.4% 4.3% 6.1% 4.6% 14

15 US$ billions Global tech market by region in US$, 2014 to % -4.2% 6.1% 2.4% 4.3% $3,360 $3,212 $2,959 $2,835 $2,905 $3,029 15

16 By region, the US and Asia Pacific s tech market will grow fastest in 2018 and to 2019 regional tech purchases forecast (Percentage change in exchange-rate-adjusted US dollars) 16

17 2018 tech market by 25 largest country tech markets Russia 17

18 How Forrester looks at tech spending New project spending (25% to 30%) creates new capabilities. Tech MOOSE is the 70% to 75% of tech budget to maintain and operate organization, systems, and equipment. Business technology (BT) is technology for firms to win, serve, and retain customers. BT new project BT MOOSE Back-office technology (BoT) is technology to support business operations and to cut costs. BoT new project BoT MOOSE 18

19 US$ billions Business technology will be almost $1 trillion of global tech purchases in 2019 $2, % $2, % $2, % $3, % $3, % $3,360 Source: Forrester Research 19

20 Business technology will constitute a larger share of new spending in 2018 $3,212 Global tech spending by focus (US$ billions) $2,458 $855 20

21 And spending on business technology will grow faster than spending on IT Global tech purchases by business focus (Percentage change from prior year) 21

22 Global software market, 2014 to 2019 Global software by major product (US$ billions) $738 $589 $576 $604 $635 $688 22

23 Information management and business apps will have the strongest growth in 2018 and 2019 Growth from prior year * 2018* 2019* Operating systems -4% -5% -5% -8% -2% Storage management 1% -16% -7% -3% 4% Database management systems 3% 2% 1% 0% 2% IT management tools -8% -2% 2% 4% 6% Security 16% 3% 4% 9% 9% App servers and integration 2% -2% 6% 9% 9% Application development tools -2% 2% 3% 6% 6% Desktop applications -9% 2% 5% 6% 7% Information management applications 6% 9% 10% 11% 12% Business applications 2% 9% 10% 13% 15% Enterprise vertical applications -2% 6% 8% 8% 8% Mobile applications built by contractors and consultants Other custom applications built by contractors and consultants 35% 30% 29% 10% 10% -11% 4% -2% 5% -2% Middleware Applications Custom applications 23

24 SaaS has captured half or more of revenues in half dozen app categories 24

25 Cloud software rises toward a third of all commercial software 25

26 In business apps, BI, CRM, FMS, HRMS, and vertical apps are biggest categories Global business applications by type of product (US$ billions) $378 $257 $258 $278 $304 $337 26

27 SaaS implementation services growing faster than onpremises software services Global tech consulting and systems integration services market (US$ billions) -2.6% 3.7% 4.0% $562 $548 $568 $ % 8% $ % 7% $660 2% 0% 25% 20% 27

28 Public and private cloud platforms growing strongly, with a revival in other tech outsourcing Global tech outsourcing services market (US$ billions) $ % $ % 4.2% $446 $ % $ % $505 28

29 Strong growth in spending on PCs and tablets; bump up in demand for servers and storage for cloud platforms in 2018 Global computer equipment market by major product (US$ billions) $ % -2.0% $342 $ % 5.6% $348 $ % $382 29

30 Decent increase in demand for communications equipment in 2018, slowing in 2019 Global communications equipment market by major product (US$ billions) -3.5% -1.9% 3.1% 5.5% $331 $319 $313 $323 $ % $350 30

31 Three reasons the tech market could do worse than our forecast 1. US tax bill provides excessive stimulus to business investment, stock market, and commercial real estate, leading to a bubble in 2018 that collapses in 2019, undermined by weak consumer spending, falling housing sector, and declines in government spending. 2. UK s Brexit negotiations get even messier, leading to a UK recession in China s heavy-handed economic management papers over debt and growth issues in 2018, which resurface in

32 Recommendations for CIOs Plan for good tech budget increases in 2018 in most countries, but be cautious in Adapt your plans to your country s and industry s tech market outlook. Use the cloud, but watch your future costs. SaaS software and cloud platforms offer firms the new technologies they need to support their BT agenda at low implementation costs, but a handful of large vendors are gaining dominant positions in their market segments. CIOs should avoid monogamy when it comes to their cloud relationships, and have a contingency plan for vendor price increases. Balance investments in the BT agenda with back-office improvements. Firms experiencing increased revenues should invest in the BT technologies needed to win, serve, and retain customers. CIOs need to be prepared to pay market rates for critical BT technologies and delay, or look for cheap alternatives for less critical ones. 32

33 Sergei Makedonski Thank you FORRESTER.COM