Luis M. Camarinha-Matos. New University of Lisbon L.M. Camarinha-Matos 1

Transcription

1 Luis M. Camarinha-Matos New University of Lisbon L.M. Camarinha-Matos 1

2 "A 'roadmap' is an extended look at the future of a chosen field of inquiry composed from the collective knowledge and imagination of the brightest drivers of change in that field." [Galvin 2002] Roadmapping is a popular metaphor for planning and portraying the use of scientific and technological resources, elements and their structural relationships over a period of time. The process of roadmapping identifies, evaluates and selects strategic alternatives that can be used to achieve desired objectives, and the resulting roadmaps summarise and communicate the results of key business decisions. [Vähäniitty, et al. 2004] L.M. Camarinha-Matos 2

3 NOW!" Well-founded models & theory Reference models Generic (invisible) infrastructures Replicable breeding environments Controlled emerging behavior Re-utilizable toolbox Social responsibility THEN Sustainable collaborative networks Emerging collaborative networks Ad-hoc experiments e-myths No interoperability No reference model Ill-understood behavior Lack of support services... L.M. Camarinha-Matos 3

4 # Science and research roadmaps Cross-industry roadmaps Industry roadmaps Technology roadmaps Product roadmaps Product-technology roadmaps Project and issue roadmaps L.M. Camarinha-Matos 4

5 '() THEN Sustainable collaborative networks NOW Emerging collaborative networks $"% & L.M. Camarinha-Matos 5

6 * +( VOmap aims at identifying and characterizing the key research challenges required constituency implementation model for a comprehensive initiative to affirm the European leadership on dynamic collaborative virtual organizations L.M. Camarinha-Matos 6

7 -.(!! Consolidate Consolidate Perceive Perceive baseline baseline trends trends Baseline Report Elaborate Elaborate experts experts vision vision statement statement Check Check feasibility feasibility per per discipline discipline " $%& Refine Refine vision vision / / mission,,, mission Aggregate 1 st vision statement + Instantiation per major disciplines 1 Characterize and consolidate the baseline 2 Perceive trends and design scenarios 3 Elaborate first vision statement and instantiations 4 Fill the GAP: Where we are to Where we wish to go 5 Propose a plan of actions (a first set of unordered transition steps) 6 Verify the planned actions 7 Plan the timing and other characterization of actions 8 Finalize the definition of the roadmap chart 9 Perform consultation and refinement 10 Perform consolidation " " % % ' ' / +/ / / ,,, Identify Identify Potentials, Potentials, Threats, Threats, Barriers Barriers Verify Verify vision vision feasibility feasibility & desirability desirability Identify Identify transform. transform. activities activities Identify Identify Implement. Implement. steps steps Assemble Assemble draft draft roadmap roadmap External External consultation consultation Generate Generate final final roadmap roadmap Dissemination Dissemination And And Impact Impact creation creation ()*+, ()*+, ()*0, ()*0, 1 1 Draft roadmap Final roadmap L.M. Camarinha-Matos 7

8 * '( 1 ('/('0' VO projects experience VOSTER portfolio THINKcreative SoA National initiatives Industry surveys Other roadmaps Baseline consolidation process & workshop 2 R1 Baseline ('1 ' (' THINKcreative Delphi National initiatives Published scenarios Internal scenarios Trends characterization Scenarios characterization R2 R2 Identified trends Future scenarios L.M. Camarinha-Matos 8 R3

9 '(,,, 3 0#'1'' ''' R1 Baseline VOmap goals Preliminary Vision 1 R2 Identified trends Preliminary Vision 2 R3 Future scenarios VOmap experts recommendation 1 st workshop on vision R4 1 st Vision & Instantiations L.M. Camarinha-Matos 9

10 * 2( 1 * Socio-economic Focus area Formal models and theory Focus area VO Management Focus area ICT infrastructure Focus area Support services Focus area Multi-disciplinary contributions L.M. Camarinha-Matos 10

11 * '( 4 2'' Vision Socioeconomic area VO Management area ICT infra- Structures area Support Services area Formal theories & models GAP Baseline Instantiation (Problem Splitting) Limitations Strengths Limitations Strengths Limitations Strengths Limitations Strengths Limitations Strengths Influence maps S1 S2 S3 S4 V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 Positive influence Moderate High S1 S2 S3 S4 V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 Positive influence Moderate High L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 Negative influence Moderate High L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 Negative influence Moderate High L.M. Camarinha-Matos 11

12 * (,,, 5 #('(a set of unordered transition steps) Socioeconomic area VO Management area ICT infra- Structures area Support Services area Formal theories & models A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 6 *'#(' V1 V2 V3 V4 A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 Level of Importance (qualitative) Moderate High Very High Limitations Strengths Feasibility check A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 Feasibility Moderate Hard Very Hard Covering the vision L.M. Camarinha-Matos 12

13 * (,,, 7 ' '(('/'#(' A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 9 SCHEDULE Short term Medium term Long term 9 OTHER ITEMS Who Resources ''/#'''# ( Focus Area A Focus Area B A1 B1 A2 A3 ) B2 B3 A4 B4 Which Inter- -dependencies? Short term Medium term Long term L.M. Camarinha-Matos 13

14 L.M. Camarinha-Matos 14 # ('#' 9 # ('' 10 Baseline refinement Vision refinement Actions refinement 2 nd Draft Roadmap Integration workshop 2 nd Draft Roadmap Final Roadmap Implementation plan Implementation schedule Implementation efforts Consolidation workshop # # # # # # # # * (,,,

15 * $'3 ('0' * Analysis of 32 VO-related projects %:('1 - Delphi survey on new trends 135 experts (69% industry, 31% academia) - 10 Regional workshops on emerging collaborative forms ~400 participants - 5 Focused workshops and 2 panels on research needs THINKcreative 2*,,, VOSTER VOmap L.M. Camarinha-Matos 15

16 Identifying trends through Delphi Changing role of governments Power of corporations / markets Accountability "6 =''( ( Reliance on technology Information & knowledge Supporting infrastructures Interoperability crisis Internal complexity Innovation :;* ( Regional clustering & Globalization External complexity Turbulent environment Focus on core competencies Crisis management Integration/desintegration of corporations Customer orientation 1' <(' Demographic shift Life-long learning Growing individualism New ways of work Dynamic relationships Social/moral/ethical implications Innovation Innovation (product, services, processes) becomes a dominant success factor Quality and robustness of products, services, processes, become more important than innovation Innovation will be pursued mainly. in collaborative networks Innovation will be pursued mainly by each organization (isolated) L.M. Camarinha-Matos 16

17 $'(,,, Other international projects Other future scenarios Other IST roadmaps Other roadmaps State of the Art (VOSTER + ) National initiatives ' =' ' # The virtual cluster vehicle (AC) Optima Upper Austria (Austria) Scenario A Scenario B Since 1998 Trend Analysis (THINKCreative+ ) Exeprt s Recommendations Germany, BmBF (ministry of / education and family) Olvio Germany, BmBF (ministry of 01.04/ /2003 education and family) EXAMPLES FIATECH Servicenet Germany, BmBF (ministry of Fully Integrated education and family) The Global Integrierte virtuelle Germany, BmBF (ministry of & Automated Produktentstehung education and family) Manufacturing Technology [2003] MikroWebFab Germany, BmBF (ministry of Enterprise in 2020 education and family) [Georgia Institute of Research agenda UTT Business Concepts for Finnish National Research Technology] Industry for the semantic Programme; funded by TEKES ELO - e-business Logistics Finnish National Research grid: A future e- Programme; funded by TEKES science Process Integration Finnish National Research The future of KM infrastructure Programme; funded by TEKES NIITM - Novel Information Project in the Process [KM Forum] Integration Technologies Integration research COMPANION and Models programme Virtual Laboratory The Netherlands ICES/KIS II COCONET Innovation Network Austria Austria I believe this initiative (in the area of Vienna) started a couple of years ago. There is no time limit. L.M. Camarinha-Matos 17 VOmap Vision Scenario C

18 $' Research on VO has created a critical mass and European-wide intuitive understanding of the area. Basic supporting infrastructures and relevant technologies are well represented, but the developments are often focused on particular needs and based on ad-hoc experiments, hardly re-utilizable. Generic functions or harmonization of achievements are addressed only in a few projects. Efforts on general plug-and-play architecture and interoperability are also to a large extent missing. Consequently, no generally accepted reference model or interoperability base are available. Although several disciplines are concerned, the main focus has been on the ICT infrastructure. Research on social/organizational, including management, is mainly focused on best practice. Integration with technological development and impacts on structures are not covered. In addition little research is focused on the social and organizational issues created by VOs L.M. Camarinha-Matos 18

19 '1'' 4 In 2015 the majority of organizations and individuals will be part of sustainable collaborative networks that will act as breeding environments for the formation of dynamic virtual organizations, in response to fast changing economic and social conditions. Well founded models of collaboration Management systems for breeding environments replicable to a large variety of sectors Generic and transparent infrastructure and re-utilizable service toolbox, based on interoperability standardization Extensive use of pervasive computing VO management principles adapted to emerging behavior in complex networks Accepted mechanisms to handle innovation and new value systems Social responsibility, including life maintenance Better understanding and handling of VO-related cultural/regional issues Definition of moral / ethical code for VOs Comprehensive (international) legal frameworks for VOs As a result, a strong and cohesive social fabric is built in response to turbulence and uncertainty. 7 L.M. Camarinha-Matos 19

20 Socioeconomic Focus 6,,, Education and training schemas VO support institutions and services Socio-economic research Regional & professional communities Life maintenance schemas Legal framework & ethical code 1 st attempt TIME VO Management Focus Business models & financing schemes Plan. & performance measurement tools Concepts & guidelines for organiz. design Application of new value paradigms Evaluation, improvements & individualization Formal Theories and models Focus Establish formal theoretical foundation Elaborate approaches for models interoperability Define reference models Elaborate soft modeling approaches Models evolution and maintenance Support Services Focus Breeding environment management system Services for VO life cycle support Business models for support services VO s inheritance management Traceability and inter- VO transactions ICT Infrastructure Focus Reference architecture principles Business models for infrastructure Invisible, affordable infrastructure Reliability and responsibility approaches Migration and systems integration Do it yourself framework Short term Medium term Long term L.M. Camarinha-Matos 20

21 *'#'(' Regional workshops Helsinki, FINLAND: 12 Feb 03 9 participants (4+5) Stuttgart, GERMANY: 24 Feb 03 7 participants (6+1) Helsinki, FINLAND: 4 Mar participants (6+5) Lisbon, PORTUGAL: 7 Mar participants (18+2) Windisch, SWITZERLAND: 13 Mar participants (16+2) Amsterdam, NETHERLANDS: 14 Mar 03 9 participants (8+1) Karlsruhe, GERMANY: 17 Apr participants (17+1) Rest of the world (written assessment) Japan - 3 Australia - 4 Canada - 1 Brazil - 1 Mexico 1 Switzerland - 1 Research 45% Others 10% Industry 45% "3-.. L.M. Camarinha-Matos 21

22 '6 >8 - Core workshop format Groups of about 6-10 people (including facilitator). The task of the workshop should consist of three elements: Current state of Virtual Organisations: Participants perspectives ~15 Min. Short mutual introduction of group members (2 Min for everybody, name, company, position, relationship to VO topic) ~10 Min. Participants write key issues of their perspectives on the current state in VO on post-its. ~20 Min: In turns, everybody places his postits onto the current state poster and briefly explains his thought and reason for amendments L.M. Camarinha-Matos 22

23 '6 >8 Opinion poll on vision: Relevance and amendment ~15 Min. Walk through the current vision drafts. VOmap project member explains the vision elements and the main thoughts behind it and links the key issues of the participants to the vision drafts. ~10 Min: Every team member votes on relevance of vision elements (scale of 1-5). Individual brainstorming: everybody gets pack of Post-its (size ~76*127 mm) and writes amendments to current vision on them. ~20 Min: In turns, everybody places his post-its onto the vision posters and briefly explains his thought and reason for amendments L.M. Camarinha-Matos 23

24 1(#* *'' How relevant is the vision statement as a whole? Lit t le Little Ve ry Very Proportion of SMEs involved in VOs in 2015 Proportion of large organizations involved in VOs in ~50% >90% <10% ~50% >90% <10% ~50% >90% L.M. Camarinha-Matos 24

25 1(#*'' 8'.-? Proportion of knowledge workers as independent or as small teams More regional or more international/ global networks <10% ~50% >90% Regional Reg+Intern. Fully intern. Regional Reg.+Int. Fully Int. Who will have more power (and profit share) in an economy of VOs? Who will mainly drive innovation in the future? S net s Large Lit t le SME nets Balanced Large corp. Individuals SME nets L.M. Camarinha-Matos 25 Ve ry Large corp.

26 Implementation Mechanisms 6,,, * Socio-economic Focus Area ROADMAP A 1 Develop and establish education, training, and accreditation schemes for VO working on different professional levels A 2 Elaborate and pilot regional and professional communities as social homes for people A 3 Define life maintenance schemes and related business models with different stakeholders (providers, customers, public bodies) A 4 Develop institutions and services for VO support, and establish them regionally; network regional bodies and developments on European level A 5 Elaborate and implement comprehensive and transparent legal frameworks and ethical code at the company/vo and societal level A 6 Support integrated socio-economic research in networked economies Today (Company level) (Regulatory level) Deployment/ improvement Broad Deployment and cont. improvement (+ political process) 2nd attempt R&D Deployment & improvement VO Management Focus Area ICT Support Services Focus Area A 1 Provision of business models and financing schemes for VO set up A 2 Provision of planning and performance measurement concepts and tools with regard to tangible and intangible assets A 3 Provision of concepts and practical guidelines for organizational design and implementation of VO A 4 Provision of methods for addressing critical soft issues (e.g. trust building) in VO collaboration A 5 Ongoing evaluation, improvement and sector specific adoption of VO concepts A 1 A 2 A 3 A 4 A 5 Develop mechanisms and tools for management of breeding environment systems Identify and develop generic services for VO life cycle support (e.g. distributed Business Process management, e-contracting, VO configuration, e-training) Develop mechanisms and tools for traceability, knowledge management and inter-vo transactions (supporting products and services life cycle) Elaborate mechanisms and tools to support VO s inheritance management Elaborate business models for support service systems and tools and cont. improvement Br. deployment improvement Br. deployment improvement ICT Infrastructure Focus Area A 1 Establish the principles of reference architecture, interoperability, and security A 2 Establish foundation for systems evolution, software technology migration and systems integration A 3 Develop generic, user-friendly (invisible!), and low-cost (free!) ICT infrastructure A 4 Develop a do it yourself framework to assist the development of VO support services A 5 Define a business model for developers, suppliers, and buyers of the ICT infrastructure developments and support software A 6 Elaborate approaches to handle reliability and responsibility, when using multi-supplier building blocks Br. Deployment/ improvement and improvement Formal Models and Theories Focus Area A 1 Establish a formal theoretical foundation and methodology for modeling dynamic collaborative networks A 2 Define basic formal reference models (including ontologies) for collaborative networks at general and focused-area levels A 3 Elaborate soft modeling approaches and soft models to both handle incomplete / imprecise knowledge and capture the social/human aspects in collaborative networks A 4 Devise mechanisms for the evolution and maintenance of reference models for collaborative networks A 5 Elaborate approaches for models interoperability, supporting multiple modeling perspectives (e.g. structure, behavior) at generic and focused area levels Training courses / seminars and improvement L.M. Camarinha-Matos 26 Basic research Basic research Basic research Basic research Basic research Br. deployment improvement

27 6,,, Today R&D and Improvement ) Timing, Resources ) R&D L.M. Camarinha-Matos 27

28 '' Consolidation workshop Paris, FRANCE: 23 May participants (22+6) L.M. Camarinha-Matos 28

29 ,,, Today Socio-economic Focus Area E 1 E 2 E 3 E 4 E 5 Develop and establish education, training, and accreditation schemes for VO working on different professional levels Elaborate and pilot regional and professional communities as social homes for people Define life maintenance schemes and related business models with different stakeholders (providers, customers, public bodies) Develop institutions and services for VO support, and establish them regionally; network regional bodies and developments on European level Elaborate and implement comprehensive and transparent legal frameworks and ethical code at the company/vo and societal level (Company level) (Regulatory level) Deployment/ improvement Broad Deployment and cont. improvement (+ political process) E 6 Support integrated socio-economic research in networked economies VO Management Focus Area M 1 Provision of business models and financing schemes for VO set up M 2 Provision of planning and performance measurement concepts and tools with regard to tangible and intangible assets M 3 Provision of concepts and practical guidelines for organizational design and implementation of VO M 4 Provision of methods for addressing critical soft issues (e.g. trust building) in VO collaboration M 5 Ongoing evaluation, improvement and sector specific adoption of VO concepts Br. deployment/ cont. improvement L.M. Camarinha-Matos 29

30 ,,, Today ICT Support Services Focus Area S 1 S 2 S 3 S 4 S 5 Develop mechanisms and tools for management of breeding environment systems Identify and develop generic services for VO life cycle support (e.g. distributed Business Process management, e-contracting, VO configuration, e-training) Develop mechanisms and tools for traceability, knowledge management and inter-vo transactions (supporting products and services life cycle) Elaborate mechanisms and tools to support VO s inheritance management Elaborate business models for support service systems and tools and cont. improvement Br. deployment improvement Br. deployment improvement ICT Infrastructure Focus Area I 1 I 2 I 3 I 4 I 5 I 6 Establish the principles of reference architecture, interoperability, and security Establish foundation for systems evolution, software technology migration and systems integration Develop generic, user-friendly (invisible!), and low-cost (free!) ICT infrastructure Develop a do it yourself framework to assist the development of VO support services Define a business model for developers, suppliers, and buyers of the ICT infrastructure developments and support software Elaborate approaches to handle reliability and responsibility, when using multi-supplier building blocks and improvement Deployment/ improvement L.M. Camarinha-Matos 30

31 ,,, Today Formal Models and Theories Focus Area F 1 F 2 F 3 F 4 F 5 Establish a formal theoretical foundation and methodology for modeling dynamic collaborative networks Define basic formal reference models (including ontologies) for collaborative networks at general and focused-area levels Elaborate soft modeling approaches and soft models to both handle incomplete / imprecise knowledge and capture the social/human aspects in collaborative networks Devise mechanisms for the evolution and maintenance of reference models for collaborative networks Elaborate approaches for models interoperability, supporting multiple modeling perspectives (e.g. structure, behavior) at generic and focused area levels Basic research Basic research Basic research Basic research Basic research Training courses / seminars and improvement Br. deployment improvement L.M. Camarinha-Matos 31