INTERNATIONAL VOLCANIC ASH TASK FORCE (IVATF)

Transcription

1 International Civil Aviation Organization IVATF/2-WP/22 10/6/11 WORKING PAPER INTERNATIONAL VOLCANIC ASH TASK FORCE (IVATF) SECOND MEETING Montréal, 11 to 15 July 2011 Agenda Item 5: Report of the International Airways Volcano Watch Coordination Group 5.2: Collaborative decision making IVATF TASK TF-VAA03 PROGRESS REPORT REPORT ON THE NEED TO PROMOTE COLLABORATIVE DECISION MAKING AMONGST VAAC, ANSP AND OPERATORS (Presented by the Rapporteur of the IAVW Coordination Group) SUMMARY This working paper presents a summary on the benefits of using Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) process to improve situational awareness and improved decision making on the location and forecast of volcanicc ash contaminated airspace. 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 At the first meeting of International Volcano Ash Task Force (IVATF/1 held 27 to 30 July 2010), the United States presented a working paper on the use and effectiveness of collaborative decision making (IVATF/1 WP/10 refers). The purpose of the paper was to introduce the concept of the Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) to further promote and improve situational awareness in support of providing an improved forecast. In response to the paper, the IVATF agreed that this merited further assessment and tasked its International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) Coordinationn Group to further investigate and report back on its progress. 1.2 This working paper provides a summary of the status of the work under development. 2. DISCUSSION 2.1 At the IVATF/1 meeting, the United States provided a case for the need to introduce CDM within the IAVW. During the presentation, the United States informed the meeting how the United States has a National Operations Plan that describes how Federal agencies coordinate and work together (6 pages) IVATF.2.WP en.docx

2 IVATF/2-WP/ in an agreed framework of responsibilities. However, that framework is not true CDM, but rather a model of identify roles and responsibilities with the understanding of how information would be shared among the agencies and the users. 2.2 Alaska model on CDM Also the United States shared with the IVATF/1 meeting work under development by the Alaska Region on their efforts to support an Alaska Volcanic Ash Collaborative Tool, but that tool is netcentric on how the Traffic Flow Management Unit at the Anchorage Air Route Traffic Control Centre (ARTCC) interfaces with the Anchorage Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC), Anchorage Meteorological Watch Office (MWO) of the Alaska Aviation Weather Unit s (AAWU), and the Alaska Volcano Observatory (VO) Volcanic events in the North Pacific trigger actions that are to be taken by the various agencies listed in the plan. The United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), a major customer and user of the information provided by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS) and the VOs, has its own procedures to ensure the safe and efficient flow of aircraft during such events Collaboration takes place on many different levels between many operational entities in various agencies. The Alaska agencies have been improving upon their CDM model since the Mt. Redoubt eruptions in 1989/ Various technologies have been used to facilitate both CDM and to improve upon information dissemination. One of the first technologies was put in place at the Anchorage Centre Weather Service Unit (CWSU) located with the FAA ARTCC. The multi-fax as it was called was a system which allowed the forecaster to graphically depict ash clouds and send the product via six fax lines simultaneously to customers defined by the FAA. The system had over 80 customers signed up to receive these ash trajectory faxes In 2003, the NWS Alaska Region, AAWU/Anchorage VAAC, Anchorage CWSU and the Alaska VO partnered with the NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) in Boulder, Colorado, to produce a collaboration tool known as the Volcanic Ash Collaboration Tool (VACT). This project was funded for about five years to develop an end-to-end volcanic ash tool. A clear path to NWS operations was not realized and the development work ended in In 2010, a follow-on to the VACT project was led by NWS Alaska Region, NASA SPoRT, and StormCenter Communications, Inc. This Google Earth based tool has been called the VACT replacement and will have all of the capabilities of the VACT system. 2.3 Utilization of the Eurocontrol European Crisis Visualization Interactive Tool for ATFCM Other collaborative work is being pursued in the ICAO European and North Atlantic (EUR/NAT) Region, in particular Euroconrol s European Crisis Visualization Interactive Tool for ATFCM (EVITA), where recently an ICAO EUR/NAT coordinated volcanic ash exercise (Exercise VOLCEX11/01) was conducted to assess not only effectiveness of this tool to promote situational awareness among providers and user of information but also to assess the effectiveness of the current Volcanic Ash Contingency Plan of the EUR/NAT Region, and verify the communication network including teleconferences. Exercise VOLCEX11/01 was a first major step in determining how effective CDM is for volcanic ash. One of the significant efforts in the use of Eurocontrol s EVITA is that it

3 - 3 - IVATF/2-WP/22 allowed the ash concentration data received from the Meteorological Office co-located with VAAC London to be displayed on the Eurocontrol Central Flow Management Unit and NOP Portal Map, display areas of ash contaminated airspace that are deemed a hazard to aviation, and detecting sectors, aerodromes and flights effected by ash Exercise VOLCEX11/01 in the EUR/NAT Region also did something else different than tests normally conducted for volcanic ash. In CAR/SAM and ASIA/PAC, while each Region has a contingency plan, one of the agreed actions in those plans is to conduct periodic communication tests. In essence those tests are more or less conducted for the purpose of assess if the messages have been received by appropriated stakeholders. But the EUR/NAT Exercise VOLCEX11/01 went one step further. Similar to the United States National Plan, it defined roles and responsibilities and actions that are required from individual stakeholders and the message format. 2.4 Concept of Collaborative Decision Making Even though progress is being made in the development of CDM tool for volcanic ash as described above, there is a need to develop a global concept of operations on how CDM is to operate. Fortunately, the ICAO Air Traffic Management Requirements and Performance Panel (ATMRPP) recognized the value of CDM and is the process of providing global guidance on the implementation and use of CDM with the issuance of a Manual on CDM. While this concept is not necessarily new, it is still maturing. At the 11th Air Navigation Conference (AN-Conf/11) in Montreal in 2003, there was an endorsement for a global ATM operational concept. Central to the concept is the following: The goal, therefore, was an evolution to a holistic cooperative and collaborative decision-making environment, where the expectations of the members of the ATM community would balance to achieve the best outcome based on equity and access Without going into great details on CDM, which should be viewed not as system rather a process the following attributes need to be understood: CDM allows all members of the ATM community to participate in ATM decisions that affect them. CDM may apply to all layers of decision from longer-term planning activities through to real-time operations. CDM can be applied actively, or through collaboratively agreed procedures, passively. Effective information management and sharing enables each participant to be aware of information of relevance to other participants decisions. Any member can propose a solution; these are of greater utility when enhanced with effective information management The figure below illustrates the timeline for CDM, where one can see that the process is flexible to meet the operational needs for aviation.

4 IVATF/2-WP/ Scheduling & Strategic Activities Nominal Operational Planning Tactical Operational Planning Flight Operations 1 year months 1 day hours Taxi out Taxi in Schedule Off-block Weather, Winds, SUA, Airframes known Takeoff Landing Arrival Other matters that need to be considered in the development of a robust CDM program include but are not limited to are: Harmonization of data in that data exchange is critical to CDM by allowing participants to have the necessary information to make decisions consistent with sought objectives. This involves the need for data standardization for exchange of information that is transparent to all stakeholders; Clearly identify overall shared objectives to seek a common agreed goal; Understand the implementation of decisions and how they are achieved. With a framework of multi-lateral decision-making with a common goal; unilateral decisionmaking with a common goal; multi-lateral decision-making where multi-lateral decisionmaking may occur with complementary individual goals or adversarial goals; and Development of rules for both tactical and strategic planning where conflicts can easily exist because of time constraints for safety related issues. 2.5 Illustration of CDM in practice The eruption of Kasatochi volcano in August 2008 offered an excellent opportunity to showcase CDM. On 11 August 2008, VAAC Montréal took over the lead for issuing volcanic ash advisories from VAAC Anchorage. This was done following several coordination phone calls with Anchorage to determine at what point the bulk of the area of volcanic ash was into the VAAC Montréal area of responsibility. This decision was facilitated by consultation of satellite images which showed the location of the volcanic ash and sulphur dioxide cloud and allowed both VAACs to come to a mutual agreement as to the best time to transfer responsibility from one to the other Another example of CDM between VAACs was in VAACs Tokyo and Anchorage were tracking an ash cloud from an eruption of Sarychev Peak. At one point, the ash moved out of the

5 - 5 - IVATF/2-WP/22 area of detection of satellite imagery available to VAAC Tokyo, at which point VAAC Anchorage took over the lead for this ash cloud since they had the appropriate observations to determine the extent of the area. When ash became difficult to detect, exchanges between the two VAACs determine which one was in the best position to detect the ash and take the lead on a given event The challenges for CDM cross a multitude of issues that require close coordination among all stakeholders that involves input for issues related to: Ash detection techniques are not perfect, and there are limitations which would encourage the need to have CDM to determine the location of the ash cloud; Quantification of the source term is a significant part of the uncertainty equation and is a another good candidate for CDM to get the best estimate of the amount of ash being projected into the atmosphere; and Subjective analysis of observations of volcanic ash still plays an important role in the detection process, which in turn requires like-minded approaches between VAACs when it comes to operational coordination. This is also important in the event where the lead VAAC is issuing advisories for an area of ash that also encompasses the area of responsibility of another VAAC. 3. CONCLUSIONS 3.1 Given the above discussion the IAVW group recommends the following: Recommendation 2/wp22-1 That, the IVATF endorse the concept of using CDM in support of improving the situational awareness of volcanic ash with the purpose of improving decision making and improved forecast of ash contaminated airspace. Recommendation 2/wp22-2 That, the IVATF invite the International Airways Volcano Watch Operations Group (IAVWOPSG) to investigate the feasibility of using CDM in their operations to promote improved decision making. Recommendation 2/wp22-3 That, the IVATF invite the Air Traffic Management Requirements and Performance Panel (ATMRPP) to work with the International Airways Volcano Watch Operations Group (IAVWOPSG) to develop guidance on the use of CDM and an operating procedure that is applicable to all ICAO Regions for incorporation into regional volcanic ash contingency plans. Recommendation 2/wp22-4 That, the IVATF invite Eurocontrol and the United States Federal Aviation Authority to lead the effort on the development of CDM. 3.2 The following draft action is offered for the consideration of the task force: Action agreed 2/wp22-1 Development of Collaborative Decision Making Process and Tools That, the IVATF agrees to adopt Recommendations 2/wp22-1 to 4 inclusive provided in this paper for endorsement.

6 IVATF/2-WP/ ACTION BY THE IVATF 4.1 The IVATF is invited to: a) note the contents of this paper; and b) decide on a draft Action Agreed for the consideration of the task force. END