Complex Project Management Systemic Innovation

Transcription

1 by Gerrit Muller University of South-Eastern Norway-NISE Abstract Systemic innovation requires organizational competences that ensure that resources and time work properly together to achieve results. business plan investors legend Distribution This article or presentation is written as part of the Gaudí. The Gaudí philosophy is to improve by obtaining frequent feedback. Frequent feedback is pursued by an open creation process. This document is published as intermediate or nearly mature version to get feedback. Further distribution is allowed as long as the document remains complete and unchanged. status: preliminary draft manager plans schedules design & analysis risk analyis team budget results processes infrastructure specs, RFPs, etc. supplies legislators standardization customers partners life cycle organization supporting organization suppliers stakeholders artifacts other, e.g. legal financial organizational customer-oriented supplier-oriented support other results

2 Project Management Tasks Composing the team Organizing and facilitating members Orchestrating solution design and analysis Organizing the infrastructure and processes Managing budget and business and plans Ensuring and monitoring progress Managing external contacts Detecting and mitigating risks 2 Gerrit Muller CPMSItasksPM

3 The Landscape for Project Management in Innovation business plan investors legend manager budget legislators stakeholders plans schedules design & analysis results standardization customers artifacts other, e.g. legal financial risk analyis team processes infrastructure partners life cycle organization organizational customer-oriented supplier-oriented specs, RFPs, etc. supporting organization supplies suppliers support other results 3 Gerrit Muller CPMSIlandscape

4 Project Management Tasks management managing arranging monitoring chasing communicating facilitating time resources budget delivery quality detecting mitigating risks 4 Gerrit Muller CPMSItasks

5 Value of Tools for Complex Project Management Complex s Problem space opportunities Solution space orchestrating solution design and analysis insight & options vision & milestones understanding and exploring the problem and solution space insight & options data & facts identifying and mitigating risk integration & plan 5 Gerrit Muller CPMSIvalueForComplexProjects

6 Planning Methods planning pacing 1 agile, wall 2 last planner 3 PERT planning 4 planning for integration 5 decision timing set-based design 6,7 real option theory 8,9 late decision making 10 long term outlook roadmapping 11,12 foresight 13 gigamaps 14 scenario planning Combating Uncertainty in the Workflow of Systems Engineering Projects, INCOSE Ivanovic, A. and America, P., 2008, Economics of architectural investments in industrial practice; 2nd International Workshop on Measurement and Economics of Software Product Lines. 9 Ivanovic, A. and America, P., 2008, Economics of investments in evolvable architecture in industrial practice, ICSM Miles, I., Saritas, O., and Sokolov, A., Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation. Springer 14 Skjelten, E.B.: Complexity & other beasts a guide to mapping workshops. The Oslo School of Architecture and Design, Oslo (2014). 15 Wilkinson, A. and Kupers, 2013, R. Living in the Future, Harvard Business Review, May Gerrit Muller CPMSIplanningMethods

7 Stakeholder Methods stakeholder communication A3AOs 1,2 T-shaped presentation physical & virtual demonstrators: prototypes, animations, simulations, mockups understanding and exploring problem and solution space conceptual modeling 3,4 illustrative ConOps 5,6,7 Ideation, Creativity 8, 9, 10, 11 techniques storytelling, scenarios 12 virtual prototyping 13 value network analysis business model analysis Business Model Canvas 14 low-tech tools: flip over sheets, sticky notes, markers high-tech tools: modeling, simulation, animation, virtual reality 1 Borches D, 2010 A3 architecture overviews: a tool for effective communication in product evolution Muller, G. Challenges in Teaching Conceptual Modeling for Systems Architecting, ER Muller, G. Teaching conceptual modeling at multiple system levels using multiple views, CIRP ISO/IEC Systems and software engineering - Life cycle processes - Requirements engineering Skjelten, E.B.: Complexity & other beasts a guide to mapping workshops. The Oslo School of Architecture and Design, Oslo (2014). 10 Young, J.W. 2016: A Technique for Producing Ideas, Stellar Editions. 11 Bhattacharya, Hemerling & Waltermann, 2010, Competing for Advantage; How to Succeed in the new Global Reality. Boston Consulting Group 12 Muller, G., 2011, Systems ArchitectIng; a Business Perspective, CRC Press 13 X-Ray-Systems.pdf 14 Osterwalder, A. et al., 2004, The business model ontology: A proposition in a design science approach. 7 Gerrit Muller CPMSIstakeholderMethods

8 Example of Pacing Milestones functioning exposure and acquisition First image manual preparation 10% IQ manual preparation 20% IQ automated preparation 10% speed 50% IQ automated preparation 100% speed Full IQ Full speed time pacing: maximum 6 month between milestones depending on technology and domain 8 Gerrit Muller MSIPMpacingMilestones

9 T-shaped Presentation societal trends opportunities problems business/market competition trends opportunities problems product system functions key performance customers stakeholders key drivers concerns applications business quantification risk analysis summary how solution answers conclusions and recommendations design and concepts functional, physical quantified specific aspects functional, physical quantified summary and conclusions why choices are appropriate technology critical or new 9 Gerrit Muller SEMApresentationTshape

10 Example of an Illustrative ConOps Gerrit Muller SSMEtypicalWorkoverOperationCartoon

11 Example A3AO from Offshore Energy Workover operation; architecture overview workover workflow assembly, functional test run / run s hook up and move above assisted connect hook up coil tubing and wireline BOP system function and connection seal test run coil tubing and wireline perform workover operations retrieve coil tubing and wireline BOP unhook coil tubing and wireline BOP assisted disconnect move away from retrieve and retrieve s retrieve / disassembly disruption workflow retract wireline shut down valves control t&p 7a disconnect move away wait move above reconnect control t&p open valves run wireline assembly and test run / run s 7b 7c hook up and move above assisted connect preparation 36 hrs stop production hook up coiled tubing/wireline function and seal test run coiled tubing/wireline workover timeline This A3 based on the work of SEMA participants: Martin Moberg a, Tormod Strand a, Vazgen Karlsen f, and Damien Wee f, and the master paper by Dag Jostein Klever f. a Aker Solutions, f FMC Technologies workover disruption assumptions: running and retrieving s: 50m/hr move away running and retrieving coiled tubing/wireline: 100m/hr depth: 300m actual workover operation 48 hrs deferred operation 62 hrs workover workflow disruption workflow disruption timeline physical model workover cost per day, equipment crew total deferred operation per day production delay ongoing cost operation total tension frame connects to tension system surface flow tree provides control emergency disconnect package provides disconnect function Xmas tree provides control 2 conduit for running tools to version 2.2 Gerrit Muller a 7b 7c wait for resolution of disruption move above reconnect continue workover hours hours retrieve coiled tubing/wireline move away from retrieve and retrieve s finishing 27 hrs resume production retrieve / disassembly wireline coil tubing BOP provides control 0-order workover cost estimate assumed cost (MNoK) MNoK/day assumed cost (MNoK) MNoK/day workover duration transportation preparation workover finishing total lower package provides control function structural and pressurecontaining interface work over control system monitoring and control of subsea installation remotely operated vehicle one for observation one for operation estimated duration (hours) 24 production loss (5.6 days) 62 (2.6 days) cost = cost workover/day * t workover + cost deferred op./day * t deferred op. ~= 2.3 * * 2.6 ~= 14 MNoK / workover Gerrit Muller SSMEoverviewA3

12 Stepwise Approachto Planning for Integration Understand Solution Design and Context Parts inside solution and in context, their interactions, emergence of Key Performance Parameters Identify Risks gaps in knowledge of problem and solution space, uncertainties, and ambiguity Determine an Integration Sequence to get Key Performance Parameters functioning ASAP using a pacing process (regular visible results) Merge Constraints from Test Configurations, Suppliers, Partners, Resources, etc. with a mindset to fail early 12 Gerrit Muller CPMSIintegrationPlanning

13 From Integration Sequence to Project Master Plan actual situation defining integration sequence options constraints planning master plan options constraints now lead customers (test)facility management suppliers resource management 13 Gerrit Muller MSIPMplanning